申万宏源发布研报称，预计阳光保险(06963)25-27年归母净利润分别达57.34/60.56/67.88亿元(此前预计 25E为80.48亿元，调降预期主因为FVOCI股票占比较高)，同比+5.2%/+5.6%/+12.1%，结合绝对、相对 估值法测算公司价值为573亿元人民币，目标价5.35港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 持续增配股票，FVOCI股票占比超七成，CSM增速稳健，业绩稳定性优于同业 截至6月末，公司二级市场权益配置比例较24年末提升1.28pct至15.1%；其中股票配置水平在高于同业 的基础上持续提升，配置比例较2024年末+1.8pct至14.1%，分类为FVOCI的股票占比较24年末水平 +1.4pct至70.38%，显著高于同业。CSM稳步增长，截至24年末，CSMyoy+12.6%至509亿元，在部分同 业规模下降态势下增速稳健；CSM摊销速度稳定，2024年CSM摊销规模为40.56亿元，摊销比率为 8.45%，保险服务业绩基本盘稳固。 风险提示：长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发、监管政策影响超预期。 NBV增幅居前，银保渠道秉承高质量发展策略，优势有望持续显现 公司人身险业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that Sunshine Insurance (06963) is expected to see a steady growth in net profit from 2025 to 2027, with projected figures of 5.734 billion, 6.056 billion, and 6.788 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5.2%, 5.6%, and 12.1% [1] Group 1: Profit Growth and Dividend Policy - The company is projected to achieve a year-on-year net profit increase of 45.8% to 5.449 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable profit performance in the first half of 2025, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.8% to 3.389 billion yuan [2] - The dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 40.1% in 2024, ranking first among listed insurance companies, with a calculated dividend yield of 5.4% based on the closing price on September 22, placing it second in the industry [2] Group 2: New Business Value (NBV) and Distribution Channels - The company has demonstrated strong resilience and growth in its life insurance segment, with NBV growth rates of 44.2% and 43.3% for 2023 and 2024 respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 47.3% to 4.008 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, leading the industry [3] - The bancassurance channel remains a traditional strength for the company, benefiting significantly from the "reporting and operation integration," with channel NBV growth rates of 6.4 percentage points and 7.2 percentage points for 2024 and the first half of 2025 respectively [3] Group 3: Liability Costs and Investment Returns - The company has seen a significant decline in new liability costs, with the NBV to effective business value ratio at 12.79% in 2024, ranking third among listed insurance companies, which is expected to further dilute the cost of existing liabilities [4] - The net investment return rate and the difference between NBV and effective business value yield are projected to increase year-on-year by 100 basis points and 31 basis points respectively, indicating an expansion of the interest spread [4] Group 4: Equity Allocation and Performance Stability - As of the end of June, the company's equity allocation in the secondary market has increased by 1.28 percentage points to 15.1%, with a stock allocation level that continues to rise, reaching 14.1% by the end of 2024, and the proportion of FVOCI stocks exceeding 70.38% [5] - The company’s CSM has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 50.9 billion yuan by the end of 2024, maintaining a stable amortization rate of 8.45% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10][17]. Core Insights - The company exhibits strong characteristics in NBV growth, stable performance, and improved interest spread [17]. - The projected net profit for the company is expected to reach 5.73 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [17]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Growth and Dividend Yield - The company shows robust profit growth, with a projected net profit of 5.45 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 45.8% [4][9]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to reach 40.1% in 2024, ranking first among listed insurance companies, with a dividend yield of 5.4% [4][28]. 2. NBV Growth and Silver Insurance Channel - The company has demonstrated strong resilience and growth in NBV, with a year-on-year increase of 44.2% in 2023 and 43.3% in 2024 [5][32]. - The silver insurance channel has become a significant contributor, accounting for over 60% of the total NBV, benefiting from the "reporting and operation integration" strategy [5][50]. 3. Liability Cost Optimization - The company has seen a significant decline in liability costs, with the NBV to effective business value ratio at 12.79%, ranking third among listed insurance companies [6][77]. - The net investment yield and the NBV/effective business value yield have improved, with a year-on-year increase of 100 basis points and 31 basis points, respectively [6][77]. 4. Stability of Performance - The company maintains a stable performance with balanced contributions from both asset and liability sides, with insurance service performance reaching 53.83 billion RMB in 2024 [4][22]. - The CSM (Contractual Service Margin) has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% to 509 billion RMB by the end of 2024 [7][34]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit for 2025-2027 is expected to be 5.77 billion RMB, 6.06 billion RMB, and 6.79 billion RMB, respectively, with growth rates of 5.9%, 7.2%, and 10.6% [9][17]. - The company's value is estimated at 573 billion RMB, with a target price of 5.35 HKD per share [17][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has experienced a recent adjustment, with the Shenwan Brokerage II Index declining by 3.51%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.07 percentage points. However, the sector is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year profit growth in Q3 2025, supported by ongoing capital inflows [3][6]. - The insurance sector has seen a decline of 4.76% in the Shenwan Insurance II Index, with significant movements such as Ping An Life increasing its stake in China Pacific Insurance to over 10%. This reflects a strong positive outlook from insurance capital towards the sector [3][8]. - The report highlights the upcoming National New Conference on September 22, which is anticipated to bring new policies that could positively impact market sentiment [3][15]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CSI 300 Index closed at 4501.92 with a slight decline of 0.44%. The non-bank index reported a drop of 3.66%, with the brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors showing declines of 3.51%, 4.76%, and 0.50% respectively [6][8]. Non-Bank Industry Key Data - As of September 19, 2025, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.88%, with a slight increase of 0.65 basis points. The average daily stock trading volume reached 25,181.36 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.23% week-on-week [11][14]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report notes that the property insurance sector achieved a record high in underwriting profits in the first half of 2025, with premium growth of 4.2% [16]. - Ping An Life's recent acquisition of shares in China Pacific Insurance is seen as a strong signal of confidence in the insurance sector's investment value [19]. - China Pacific Insurance announced the completion of a convertible bond issuance, which is expected to enhance its capital position [20]. Investment Recommendations - For brokerages, the report recommends focusing on leading firms benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, such as GF Securities, Guotai Junan, and CITIC Securities. It also suggests considering firms with strong international business capabilities like China Galaxy and CICC [3][8]. - In the insurance sector, the report recommends China Life, China Pacific, New China Life, and Ping An, among others, due to their favorable valuation and growth prospects [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent semi-annual adjustment of the FTSE Global Equity Index Series has included several Hong Kong stocks, indicating a shift in market dynamics and highlighting the performance of certain sectors, particularly gold and biopharmaceuticals [1][2][3]. Group 1: Index Adjustments - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) and Laopuhuang Gold (06181) have been included in the FTSE China Large Cap Index for the first time, while 11 Hong Kong stocks, including SF Express (09699) and SOTY Technology (02498), have been added to the FTSE China Small Cap Index [1][2]. - The FTSE Global Equity Index Series categorizes stocks into four market capitalization tiers based on free float market capitalization, which excludes strategic holdings and locked shares [1]. Group 2: Market Performance - The newly included stocks have shown significant price increases this year, with Chifeng Jilong Gold rising over 120% and Laopuhuang Gold increasing by over 200%, reflecting strong sector performance [3]. - The biopharmaceutical sector has also seen substantial growth, with companies like Rongchang Bio (09995) and Sanofi (01530) experiencing stock price increases of nearly 670% and a market capitalization exceeding 77 billion HKD, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Company Highlights - Chifeng Jilong Gold focuses on gold mining and resource recovery, reporting a net profit of 1.107 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 55.79% [4]. - Laopuhuang Gold, which went public on June 28, 2024, has seen its stock price surge by 204.65% this year, making it the highest-priced stock in the Hong Kong market [4]. - SF Express, as the largest third-party instant delivery platform in China, has seen steady growth in market capitalization and liquidity since its listing in December 2021, with a target price of 20 HKD set by Daiwa [4]. - Sanofi has gained attention due to a significant business development deal with Pfizer, leading to a market capitalization of 77 billion HKD [5]. - Fourth Paradigm (06682) has received positive outlooks from multiple brokerages, with target prices raised due to its strong position in the AI sector [6].

Key Points - The top three stocks with net inflow of southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 5.278 billion, Yingfu Fund (02800) with 2.782 billion, and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 1.566 billion [1] - The top three stocks with net outflow of southbound funds are Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with -0.721 billion, Innovent Biologics (01801) with -0.466 billion, and Pop Mart (09992) with -0.458 billion [1] - In terms of net inflow ratio, Yuexiu Transportation Infrastructure (01052) leads with 63.76%, followed by Crystal International (02232) with 56.34%, and China Resources Gas (01193) with 53.63% [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflow ratio include QuanFeng Holdings (02285) at -59.36%, Yadea Group (01585) at -54.53%, and TCL Electronics (01070) at -54.28% [1] Net Inflow Rankings - The top ten stocks by net inflow include Alibaba-W (09988) with 5.278 billion, Yingfu Fund (02800) with 2.782 billion, and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) with 1.566 billion [2] - Other notable stocks in the net inflow list are Meituan-W (03690) with 0.670 billion and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) with 0.620 billion [2] Net Outflow Rankings - The top ten stocks by net outflow include Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with -0.721 billion, Innovent Biologics (01801) with -0.466 billion, and Pop Mart (09992) with -0.458 billion [2] - Other significant stocks in the net outflow list are Li Auto-W (02015) with -0.298 billion and China Construction Bank (00939) with -0.254 billion [2] Net Inflow Ratio Rankings - The top three stocks by net inflow ratio are Yuexiu Transportation Infrastructure (01052) at 63.76%, Crystal International (02232) at 56.34%, and China Resources Gas (01193) at 53.63% [3] - Additional stocks with high net inflow ratios include China Ship Leasing (03877) at 49.13% and Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway at 45.49% [3] Net Outflow Ratio Rankings - The stocks with the highest net outflow ratios include QuanFeng Holdings (02285) at -59.36%, Yadea Group (01585) at -54.53%, and TCL Electronics (01070) at -54.28% [3] - Other notable stocks with significant net outflow ratios are Kangji Medical (09997) at -53.77% and QiuTai Technology (01478) at -47.17% [3]

Summary of Sunshine Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - Sunshine Insurance is focused on improving its value rate due to regulatory policies and internal cost reduction efforts, with external and internal factors contributing equally to the enhancement of new business value rates across various channels [2][3]. Key Points Business Performance - As of August 2025, Sunshine Life achieved positive growth in new single premium insurance, with new single premium income remaining stable compared to the same period last year. The expected comparable growth rate for the year could reach 50%-60% under unchanged economic assumptions [2][5]. - The company has implemented a dual-track strategy post the adjustment of the predetermined interest rate, balancing between participating insurance (minimum guaranteed rate of 1.75%) and traditional insurance (pricing at 2.0%) to meet diverse customer needs [2][8]. Cost Management and Efficiency - Sunshine Insurance has initiated several measures to enhance efficiency in the individual insurance channel, including improving expense efficiency, reforming the commission system, and optimizing fixed cost management. These efforts are expected to yield positive results in the second half of the year [5][6]. - The cost of liabilities for existing business is below 3%, while new business liabilities range between 2% and 2.5% as of June 2025. Positive contributions from mortality and expense variances have been noted, with significant growth in morbidity and non-morbidity contributions [2][9]. Market Strategy and Product Offering - The company has launched new products with a focus on both participating and traditional insurance, adapting to market changes and customer preferences. The sales strategy will not solely focus on participating insurance but will offer products based on customer demand [8][9]. - Sunshine Insurance's contract service margin (CSM) balance reached 56.08 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, driven by new business contributions and favorable investment returns from participating accounts [9]. Industry Trends and Regulatory Impact - The increase in the comprehensive loss ratio for Sunshine Property Insurance is attributed to the need for increased reserves due to extreme weather, changes in business structure, and the long-tail effects of high-risk businesses [4][10]. - The implementation of the unified pricing and sales model is expected to lead to business fluctuations in the short term but may improve cost structures and reduce reliance on intermediaries in the long run [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Sunshine Insurance maintains a core asset allocation strategy of 75% fixed income and 25% equity, with a focus on high-dividend, high-value, and high-yield investments. The equity investment strategy emphasizes long-term value [13][14]. - The company has been proactive in managing fixed income investments, aiming to maintain stable asset duration while dynamically adjusting to market changes [15][16]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates stable growth in net profit, with life insurance expected to contribute over 4 billion annually. The overall performance is projected to improve due to a favorable investment strategy and market conditions [17]. - Sunshine Insurance aims to maintain a stable growth policy for dividends, focusing on consistent per-share dividend growth without tying it to specific metrics like net profit [18]. Additional Insights - The company is closely monitoring market dynamics and will adjust strategies accordingly to ensure sustainable growth [6][7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 ——保险行业2025年中报综述 证券分析师： 罗钻辉 A0230523090004 孙冀齐 A0230523110001 2025.9.16 核心观点：负债端"反内卷"政策成效显著，投资端表现分化 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 利润表现分化，EV稳步增长。1H25 A股上市险企归母净利润yoy+3.7%至1782亿元，受投资表现及金融资产会计分类、利率波动等因素影响， 上市险企利润增速位居-23.5%至1103.5%区间；从利源结构来看，1H25 A股上市险企保险服务业绩、投资业绩合计分别达1310.50/928.45亿元， 占税前利润比重分别达58.0%/41.1%，利源结构相对均衡。截至6月末，上市险企EV较24年末增速位居2.6%-18.4%区间，表现稳健。 ◼ 负债端"反内卷"政策持续显效，NBV、COR表现亮眼。1）人身险方面，多数险企NBVM同比改善驱动NBV延续高增态势。A股上市险企 1H25合计实现NBV754.22亿元，同比增长30.5%，上市险企1H25NBV增速位居14.0%-58.4% ...

Core Insights - Insurance funds have significantly increased their presence in the A-share market, with nearly 800 companies listed among the top ten shareholders as of June 2025, and over 280 stocks being increased in the second quarter alone [2][3] - The total investment scale of insurance funds reached 36 trillion yuan by the end of the second quarter of 2025, with stock investments amounting to 3.07 trillion yuan, a net increase of approximately 640 billion yuan compared to the previous quarter [2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - The seven major A+H listed insurance companies have a combined investment scale of 21.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 60.30% of the total industry [2] - The stock investment scale of these companies reached 2.05 trillion yuan, with a net increase of 431.3 billion yuan, representing 67.39% of the industry's net increase [3] - Insurance funds are increasingly allocating to equity assets due to declining risk-free returns, with different companies showing varied strategies in their asset allocation [4][5] Group 2: Company-Specific Actions - China Ping An saw the largest increase in stock investment, with a net increase of 211.9 billion yuan, raising its proportion by 2.9 percentage points [4] - China Life's stock investment increased by 119.1 billion yuan, with a 1.1 percentage point rise in proportion [4] - Sunshine Insurance has the highest stock investment proportion among the seven companies at 14.1%, with a 23.9% increase [4] Group 3: Sector Preferences - As of mid-2025, insurance funds have allocated nearly 1 trillion yuan to high-dividend other comprehensive income (OCI) stocks, with a significant increase in the proportion of OCI stocks in their portfolios [6] - The top five sectors for insurance fund holdings include banking, transportation, communication, real estate, and utilities, with the media, communication, and utilities sectors seeing the largest increases in holdings [6] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Insurance funds have engaged in 30 "block trades" since the beginning of 2025, with the banking sector being the most active [8] - The shift in accounting standards is expected to influence the stability of insurance companies' net profits, prompting a greater focus on OCI asset allocation [9] - Recent policy changes have encouraged insurance companies to invest more in the A-share market, with a target of 30% of new premiums allocated annually [10]

Core Viewpoint - Insurance funds are increasingly becoming a significant presence in the A-share market, with substantial investments in various sectors and a notable shift towards equity assets as traditional fixed-income returns decline [2][4][11]. Group 1: Insurance Fund Presence and Investment Trends - As of June 2025, insurance funds are listed among the top ten shareholders in nearly 800 A-share companies, with over 280 stocks increased and more than 300 new positions established in Q2 [2][4]. - The total investment balance of insurance companies in stocks reached 3.07 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 640 billion yuan from Q4 2024 [4]. - The seven major A+H listed insurance companies hold a combined investment total of 21.85 trillion yuan, accounting for 60.30% of the industry total [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Asset Allocation - Insurance companies are focusing on balancing returns, duration, and cash flow due to the long-term nature of their liabilities, leading to a cautious approach towards risk [4][11]. - In a low-risk return environment, insurance funds are gradually increasing their allocation to equities, with varying strategies among different companies [4][5]. - The average dividend yield of stocks held by insurance funds is 2.30%, slightly down from previous periods due to rising stock prices [8]. Group 3: Specific Company Actions and Sector Preferences - China Ping An has seen the largest increase in stock investment, with a net increase of 211.9 billion yuan, while China Life and New China Life also reported significant increases [5]. - The top five sectors for insurance fund holdings include banking, transportation, telecommunications, real estate, and utilities, with media, telecommunications, and utilities showing the highest quarterly increases [8]. - Insurance funds have engaged in notable stock purchases, with China Life increasing positions in CITIC Bank and China Telecom, while reducing holdings in Sinopec [9][10]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - Recent regulatory changes have encouraged insurance companies to allocate more funds to the A-share market, with a target of 30% of new premiums to be invested annually [12]. - The overall market valuation is considered reasonable, with expectations for continued investment in technology, consumer manufacturing, and emerging markets [12].