Core Viewpoint - China Ping An's 2025 mid-year report shows mixed results with revenue and net profit declining, while operating profit and new business value in life insurance demonstrate growth, indicating resilience in core operations despite challenges in investment returns [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 reached CNY 500.1 billion and CNY 68 billion, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.0% and -8.8% respectively [1] - Operating profit after tax (OPAT) increased by 3.7% to CNY 77.7 billion, while net assets rose by 1.7% to CNY 944 billion [1] - The non-annualized comprehensive investment return improved by 0.3 percentage points to 3.1% [1] Business Segment Analysis - Life insurance, property and casualty insurance, banking, asset management, and financial empowerment segments showed OPAT growth rates of 2.5%, 1.0%, -3.9%, 110%, and 179% respectively, with life insurance remaining the core business [2] - The improvement in property and casualty insurance profits was attributed to a 2.6 percentage point reduction in the combined ratio, primarily from enhancements in auto and guarantee insurance [2] - The asset management segment's net profit increased by CNY 1.43 billion, mainly due to a reduction in financial expenses [2] - The technology segment reported a net loss of CNY 2.6 billion, largely due to a one-time loss from the consolidation of Good Doctor [2] Life Insurance Insights - Life insurance's new business value (NBV) grew significantly, driven by a 149% increase in new policies through the bancassurance channel, achieving a high margin of 28.6% [2] - The number of agents and activity rates in the individual insurance channel continued to decline, with a 6 percentage point drop in activity rates to 49.9% [2] - The NBV's Contractual Service Margin (CSM) showed a 6.2% increase, with expectations for positive growth by year-end [2] Investment Performance - Investment returns for life insurance remained below the annualized 4% target, with property and casualty insurance net profit only increasing by 1% despite a 126% rise in underwriting profit due to a 30.2% drop in investment income [2] - Asset allocation shifted, with bond holdings in TPL accounts decreasing from 16.9% to 15.2%, while equity assets increased significantly [2] - The comprehensive investment return rose by 24.5%, with non-annualized returns improving to 3.1% [2] Profit Forecast - The company’s mid-year report aligns with expectations, particularly with the stabilization of life insurance CSM, suggesting potential for improved profitability [3] - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are CNY 130.6 billion, CNY 148 billion, and CNY 173.2 billion, with respective growth rates of 3.2%, 13.3%, and 17.0% [3] - The estimated embedded value per share for 2025-2027 is projected at CNY 85.1, CNY 91.1, and CNY 97.8, with current price-to-embedded value ratios of 0.68, 0.63, and 0.59 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 20.00 [1][2][10] Core Insights - The company reported a stable growth in New Business Value (NBV) of 22.8% year-on-year, driven by improvements in pricing and distribution channels [6][7] - The overall investment performance faced pressure, with a significant decline in total investment income, leading to a negative investment performance [9] - The underwriting performance in property insurance showed improvement, with a combined ratio (COR) decrease to 95.5% [8] Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a net profit of HKD 6.764 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% [6] - Gross premium income is projected to grow from HKD 111.268 billion in 2024 to HKD 129.498 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.79% [5] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is HKD 2.34, reflecting a growth of 13.25% from the previous year [10][22] Business Segment Analysis - In the life insurance segment, the NBV growth was robust, with a 4.2% increase in new single premiums, indicating an improvement in value rates [7] - The property insurance segment saw a 3.1% increase in domestic premium income, with a notable 55.6% rise in insurance service performance due to cost efficiency measures [8] - The investment segment faced challenges, with a year-on-year decline in annualized total investment return to 2.68% [9] Valuation and Forecast - The target price was adjusted to HKD 20 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, reflecting resilient NBV growth and improved COR [10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 12% in 2025, indicating a solid profitability outlook [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$16.59, corresponding to a PB of 1.2 times for 2025 [6]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, while the underwriting profit decreased by 43.9% to CNY 5.713 billion. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) rose to 98.8%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The company’s investment income significantly increased by 67.9% year-on-year to CNY 34.937 billion, primarily due to the strategic allocation of secondary equity assets during market lows [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of CNY 32.161 billion, up 30.9% year-on-year, with an underwriting profit of CNY 5.713 billion, down 43.9%. The COR was 98.8%, up 1.0 percentage points, and ROE was 13.0%, up 2.2 percentage points. The proposed final dividend per share is CNY 0.332, leading to a total annual dividend of CNY 0.54, an increase of 10.4% year-on-year [1]. Liability Side - The insurance service revenue for 2024 was CNY 485.223 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a market share of 31.8%, down 0.7 percentage points. The revenue from auto insurance was CNY 294.701 billion, up 4.5%, while non-auto insurance revenue was CNY 190.522 billion, up 8.8% [2][3]. Profitability - The COR increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% in 2024, driven by a rise in the loss ratio, which increased by 2.4 percentage points to 73%. The increase in loss ratio was attributed to severe disaster impacts and rising liability costs due to declining interest rates. The company implemented cost reduction measures, reducing the expense ratio by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8% [3][4]. Investment Side - By the end of 2024, the total investment scale reached CNY 676.512 billion, a 12.6% increase from the previous year, with a total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company aims for steady growth, with projected net profit growth rates of 29.9%, 16.4%, and 20.5% for 2025-2027. The BPS is expected to be CNY 12.57, CNY 14.06, and CNY 15.82 for the respective years, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.04, 0.93, and 0.83 [6][13].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中国人保（601319）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） COR 受灾害影响提升，人身险 NBV 实现翻 倍以上增长 事项： 2024 年集团实现归母净利润 429 亿元，同比+88.2%；财险原保费同比+4.3%， COR 同比+0.9pct 至 98.5%；寿险实现 NBV 50 亿元，可比口径下同比+114.2%； 健康险 NBV 65 亿元，可比口径下同比+143.6%。投资方面，2024 年集团实现 净/总投资收益率 3.9%/5.6%，同比-0.6pct/+2.3pct。拟派发末期股息每 10 股 1.17 元（含税）。 评论： 非车险影响财险 COR，车险盈利能力持续向好。2024 年，人保财险业务规模 稳中有进，保险服务收入同比+6.1%至 4852 亿元；盈利能力略有下降，COR 同比+0.9pct 至 98.5%，主要受灾害及利率影响带来负债成本上升，赔付率同 比+2.3pct。分险种来看， 1）车险：2024 年保险服务收入同比+4.5%，COR 逆势实现优化 0.1pct 至 96.8%， 主要得益于费用端"报行合一"政策积极影响，同比-2.3pct。车险赔付率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" for A-shares and maintained as "Buy" for H-shares [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a strong growth in life insurance with a 127% year-on-year increase in NBV (New Business Value), driven by improved profit margins despite a slight decline in new premium income [2][16]. - The overall profitability is supported by significant investment performance, with a projected ROE (Return on Equity) of approximately 16.5% for 2024, the highest in nearly a decade [4]. - The property insurance segment experienced a slight increase in the combined ratio, primarily due to natural disaster impacts, but is expected to normalize in 2025 [3][16]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The NBV for life insurance increased by 127% year-on-year, with agent and bancassurance channels growing by 86% and 223% respectively [2]. - The profit margin for NBV improved significantly to 18% from 8% due to a reduction in channel costs and adjustments in assumptions [2]. - The company anticipates a 17% growth in NBV for 2025, supported by ongoing improvements in profit margins [2]. Property Insurance - The combined ratio for property insurance rose by 1 percentage point to 98.8%, influenced by natural disasters [3]. - The auto insurance segment maintained a stable combined ratio of 96.8%, while non-auto insurance saw an increase to 101.9% due to rising claims [3]. - A return to normal disaster frequency is expected in 2025, with a projected combined ratio of approximately 98% [3]. Investment Performance - The total investment return rate improved significantly to 5.6% in 2024 from 3.3% in 2023, leading to over 100% growth in investment income [4]. - The company’s net assets increased by 11% year-on-year, indicating good asset-liability matching [4]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 is set at RMB0.18, up from RMB0.16 in 2023, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of about 19% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The EPS (Earnings Per Share) forecast for 2025 is adjusted to RMB0.93, with target prices for A/H shares raised to RMB7.90 and HKD4.70 respectively [5][8]. - The company’s projected gross premium income for 2024 is RMB537.7 billion, with a growth rate of 6.71% compared to 2023 [7][23]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is RMB42.15 billion, representing an 88.83% increase year-on-year [7][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][11] Core Insights - The company achieved a net profit of 32.17 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.9%, aligning with expectations. The underwriting profit was 5.71 billion yuan, down 43.9% year-on-year, while total investment income reached 34.94 billion yuan, up 67.9% year-on-year. The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) increased by 1.0 percentage points to 98.8% due to frequent natural disasters [4][5] - The company is a leader in the property and casualty insurance industry, with a competitive advantage in the market. The total dividend per share for the year was 0.54 yuan, an increase of 10.2% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 37.3% [4][6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 34.91 billion yuan and 38.24 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new forecast for 2027 at 41.76 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.5%, 9.5%, and 9.2% [4][7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Total premium income for 2024 was 538.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, with service income at 485.2 billion yuan, up 6.1%. The breakdown includes 294.7 billion yuan from auto insurance and 190.5 billion yuan from non-auto insurance, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 4.5% and 8.8% [5][7] - The company's total investment income for 2024 was 34.9 billion yuan, with an annualized total investment return rate of 5.5%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year. Investment assets increased by 12.6% to 676.5 billion yuan [6][7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.6 yuan, 1.7 yuan, and 1.9 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8.5, 7.8, and 7.1 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong growth in earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 4.67, a 65% year-on-year increase, slightly above the expected RMB 4.61, driven primarily by favorable investment returns [1]. - The total investment return rate for 2024 is 5.6%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, contributing to significant net profit growth [1]. - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) for the life insurance segment increased by 6% year-on-year, indicating a faster growth rate compared to the first half of 2024 [4]. - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance saw a remarkable increase of 58% year-on-year, with expectations for continued growth [2][1]. Summary by Sections Life Insurance - The NBV for 2024 increased by 58% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant rise in NBV profit margins, despite a slight decline in new policies [2]. - The NBV profit margin is estimated to rise to 21.4% from 13% in 2023, driven by pricing rate adjustments and reduced channel sales expenses [2]. - The company has adjusted its investment return assumptions down to 4.0% from 4.5%, and the discount rate to 8.5% from 9.0%, which led to a 23% decrease in NBV [2]. Property Insurance - The combined operating ratio (COR) for property insurance increased by 0.9 percentage points to 98.6%, mainly due to higher claims from natural disasters [3]. - The claims ratio rose by 1.7 percentage points to 70.8%, partially offset by a decrease in expense ratio [3]. - Total premiums for property insurance grew by 6.8%, with a 3.7% increase in auto insurance and a 10.7% increase in non-auto insurance [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report has revised the EPS forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to RMB 4.74, RMB 4.79, and RMB 5.23 respectively, reflecting increases of 23% and 14% [5]. - The target price based on discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation is set at RMB 43 for A-shares and HKD 33 for H-shares, maintaining the "Buy" rating [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][30]. Core Views - The company reported a 2024 EPS of RMB 0.47, a 47% year-on-year increase, driven by strong performance in equity investments, exceeding the expected RMB 0.40 [1][6]. - The total investment return rate for 2024 improved by 0.9 percentage points to 4.3%, contributing to the better-than-expected performance [1]. - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance increased by 88% year-on-year on a comparable basis, indicating robust growth [2][6]. - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 99.7%, up 1 percentage point, reflecting a deterioration in underwriting performance [3][6]. - The company's net assets increased by 3% year-on-year, showing stability despite some impact from asset-liability mismatches [4][6]. - The report projects a 16% year-on-year increase in NBV for 2025, supported by expectations of continued improvement in NBV margins [2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - The company achieved a total investment income of RMB 22.676 billion in 2024, a 48.77% increase from the previous year [5][19]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was RMB 5.449 billion, a 45.77% increase year-on-year [5][19]. Insurance Business - The life insurance new business value (NBV) margin improved by 11 percentage points to 22% on a comparable basis, driven by pricing adjustments [2]. - The property insurance premium income grew by 8% year-on-year, with non-auto insurance driving the growth at 17% [3]. Financial Metrics - The company’s return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was 8.9%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from the previous year, with expectations of reaching 9% in 2025 [4][5]. - The dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 was RMB 0.19, a slight increase from RMB 0.18 in 2023, with a dividend payout ratio reduced to 40% [4][5]. Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 4.60 based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) method, reflecting adjustments in the risk-free rate assumptions [5][6]. - The report anticipates EPS for 2025 to be RMB 0.47, maintaining a stable outlook for the company's earnings [5].