Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [4] Core Views - Nongfu Spring achieved revenue of RMB 42.667 billion in 2023, a YoY increase of 28.4%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.079 billion, a YoY increase of 42.2% [4] - In H2 2023, revenue reached RMB 22.2 billion, a YoY increase of 33.4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6.3 billion, a YoY increase of 62.2% [4] - The company's tea beverage segment showed strong growth, with revenue increasing by 83.3% YoY in 2023, driven by the success of the "Oriental Leaf" product line [5][7] - The company's gross margin improved to 59.5% in 2023, up 2.1 percentage points YoY, due to lower costs for packaging materials and some raw materials [6] - The company's net profit margin reached 28.3% in 2023, up 2.8 percentage points YoY, driven by cost optimization and improved operational efficiency [6] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 42.667 billion, with a YoY growth of 28.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was RMB 12.079 billion, a YoY increase of 42.2% [4] - Gross margin for 2023 was 59.5%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY [6] - Net profit margin for 2023 was 28.3%, up 2.8 percentage points YoY [6] - The company's EPS for 2023 was RMB 1.07 [8] Segment Performance - Tea beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 12.659 billion, a YoY increase of 83.3%, accounting for 29.7% of total revenue [5] - Packaged water revenue in 2023 was RMB 20.262 billion, a YoY increase of 10.9%, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue [5] - Functional beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 4.902 billion, a YoY increase of 27.7%, accounting for 11.5% of total revenue [5] - Juice beverage revenue in 2023 was RMB 3.533 billion, a YoY increase of 22.7%, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue [5] - Other products revenue in 2023 was RMB 1.311 billion, a YoY decrease of 3.1%, accounting for 3.0% of total revenue [5] Future Outlook - The company expects stable gross margins in H1 2024, with continued monitoring of raw material prices [6] - The company's "Oriental Leaf" product line is expected to maintain strong growth, benefiting from the trend towards healthier, sugar-free beverages [7] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised upwards to RMB 12.923 billion, RMB 14.536 billion, and RMB 16.224 billion, respectively [7] - The current stock price implies a 2024-2026 PE ratio of 33x, 29x, and 26x, respectively [7] Market Data - Total market capitalization is HKD 463.917 billion [2] - The stock's 52-week high/low is HKD 46.75/HKD 37.95 [2] - The 3-month turnover rate is 5.81% [2]

M N 2024 年 3 月 28 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 公司更新 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 2H23营收/净利分别增长 33%/62%，无糖茶业务占比显著提升 目标价 57.8港元 农夫山泉 2H23 营收及净利润分别录得+33.4%/62.2%，超出预期。全年营收和 (此前目标价 57.8港元) 净利均创下新高，毛利率回升2.1个百分点至59.5%，净利率达到28%的历史高 潜在升幅 40.0% 位，部分得益于茶饮业务同比 83%的高速增长，收入贡献占比达近 30%，拉低 当前股价 41.3港元 包装水业务占比至 48%。展望 2024 年，公司目标各业务板块均实现双位数增 中国必选消费 长。同时，公司不以追求维持高毛利为重点策略，并预计长期利润率将回落至 黄铭谦 25%左右区间。得益于消费力的恢复及茶饮的持续推新和渗透，2H 整体表现优 (852) 3900 0838 于1H，且2024年前两个月的业务发展均符合预期。公司表示，3月中旬开始的 josephwong@cmbi.com.hk 舆论主要影响线上直播间销售，目前事件负面影响正在减弱。 李昀嘉 盈利增速大于收入增速可期，材料 ...

华福证券 软饮料 2024年03月27日 公 司 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 持有（维持评级） 研 究 基本盘稳健，茶饮业务高速增长 当前价格： 41.25港元 目标价格： 43.86港元 事件：农夫山泉发布2023年年报，公司23年实现主营业务收入426.67 亿元，同比增长28.36%，实现归母净利润120.79亿元，同比增长42.19%。 基本数据 根据年报，公司23年下半年实现主营业务收入222.05亿元，同比增长 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 11,246.47/5,034.67 流通市值(百万港元) 207,679.99 33.44%%，归母净利润实现63.04亿元，同比增长62.19%，环比上半年 每股净资产(港元) 2.81 明显提速。 资产负债率(%) 41.85 一年内最高/最低价(港元) 46.75/37.95  包装饮用水和饮料双引擎格局进一步夯实，功能饮料/果汁均维持 一年内股价相对走势 双位数增长。 公 司 截至2023年，公司包装水和饮料业务合计贡献了77.16%的收入， 财 双轮驱动进一步夯实，其余功能饮料和果汁业务仍维持较好的双位数 报 增长，分别实现收入达49.02/35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633.HK) with a target price of HKD 52 [1]. Core Insights - Nongfu Spring's 2023 annual report shows a significant increase in revenue and profit, with total revenue reaching CNY 42.667 billion, up 28.4% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 12.079 billion, up 42.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The growth in the ready-to-drink tea segment has accelerated, contributing to a revenue of CNY 73.73 million in the second half of 2023, marking a 104.8% increase [1]. - The company has optimized its sales expense ratio, leading to a net profit margin increase to 28.4% in the second half of 2023, up 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Nongfu Spring achieved a total revenue of CNY 42.916 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.1% [2]. - The net profit for 2023 was CNY 12.079 billion, reflecting a 42.2% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be CNY 1.25, CNY 1.44, and CNY 1.63 respectively [2]. Segment Analysis - The ready-to-drink tea segment saw a revenue increase of 104.8% in the second half of 2023, driven by the success of the Dongfang Shuye brand [1]. - The functional beverage segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 60.3% in the second half of 2023 [1]. Cost and Efficiency - The gross margin improved to 59.5% for the full year 2023, aided by lower costs for packaging materials and raw materials [1]. - The sales expense ratio decreased by 4.6 percentage points in the second half of 2023, contributing to overall profitability [1].

Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 reached RMB 42,667 million, a year-on-year increase of 28.4%[1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company's owners was RMB 12,079 million, up 42.2% compared to the previous year[1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 1.07, an increase of 40.8% year-on-year[1] - Gross profit for 2023 was RMB 25,406.8 million, compared to RMB 19,095.4 million in 2022[2] - Other income and gains amounted to RMB 1,841.5 million, up from RMB 1,709.2 million in 2022[2] - The company's revenue from customer contracts in 2023 increased to RMB 42,667,221 thousand, up from RMB 33,239,187 thousand in 2022, reflecting a significant growth in sales[17] - Interest income in 2023 rose to RMB 991,247 thousand, compared to RMB 623,360 thousand in 2022, indicating improved financial performance[19] - Government subsidies and grants related to income increased to RMB 505,897 thousand in 2023 from RMB 412,529 thousand in 2022, supporting the company's operations[19] - The company's pre-tax profit for 2023 was RMB 11,050,332 thousand, with a significant portion attributed to the performance of its beverage segments[14] - Income tax expenses for 2023 were RMB 3,608,704 thousand, compared to RMB 2,555,082 thousand in 2022, reflecting higher profitability[23] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 increased to RMB 12,079 million from RMB 8,495 million in 2022[34] - The company's operating cash flow in 2023 increased by 43.7% year-on-year to RMB 17,305 million[34] - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 42,667 million, a 28.4% increase from 2022, with gross profit rising 33.1% to RMB 25,407 million[51] - Gross margin increased by 2.1 percentage points to 59.5% in 2023, driven by lower costs for materials such as cartons and labels[51] - Net profit for 2023 increased by 42.2% to RMB 12,079 million, up from RMB 8,495 million in 2022[56] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company proposed a final dividend of RMB 0.75 per ordinary share[1] - The company declared a final dividend of RMB 0.75 per share for 2023, totaling approximately RMB 8,434,850,000, subject to shareholder approval[26] - The company proposed a final cash dividend of RMB 0.75 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaling approximately RMB 8,435 million[34] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of RMB 0.75 per share for the year ended December 31, 2023, totaling approximately RMB 8,435 million[81] - The company will suspend share registration from May 16 to May 21, 2024, and from May 25 to May 30, 2024, for the final dividend eligibility[83][84] Segment Performance - Revenue from external customers for water products reached RMB 20.26 billion, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue[13] - Revenue from ready-to-drink tea products was RMB 12.66 billion, representing 29.7% of total revenue[13] - Functional beverage products generated RMB 4.90 billion in revenue, contributing 11.5% to total revenue[13] - Juice beverage products contributed RMB 3.53 billion in revenue, making up 8.3% of total revenue[13] - Other products, including agricultural and other beverages, generated RMB 1.31 billion in revenue, accounting for 3.1% of total revenue[13] - Segment profit for water products was RMB 7.35 billion, the highest among all segments[13] - Ready-to-drink tea products achieved a segment profit of RMB 5.62 billion[13] - Functional beverage products recorded a segment profit of RMB 2.07 billion[13] - Juice beverage products and other products had segment profits of RMB 945.63 million and RMB 396.21 million, respectively[13] - Total revenue from external customers in 2022 reached RMB 33,239,187 thousand, with water products contributing RMB 18,262,614 thousand, ready-to-drink tea products contributing RMB 6,905,986 thousand, functional beverages contributing RMB 3,837,605 thousand, and juice products contributing RMB 2,878,830 thousand[14] - Packaging water products revenue reached RMB 20,262 million in 2023, a 10.9% increase from 2022, accounting for 47.5% of total revenue[40] - Tea beverage products revenue grew by 83.3% to RMB 12,659 million in 2023, representing 29.7% of total revenue[42] - Functional beverage products revenue increased by 27.7% to RMB 4,902 million in 2023, making up 11.5% of total revenue[44] - Juice beverage products revenue was RMB 3,533 million in 2023, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[39] - Other products revenue decreased to RMB 1,311 million in 2023, representing 3.0% of total revenue[39] - Juice beverage products recorded annual revenue of RMB 3,533 million in 2023, a 22.7% increase from 2022, accounting for 8.3% of total revenue[45] - Other products, including soda water and coffee beverages, generated revenue of RMB 1,311 million in 2023, a slight decrease of 3.1% from 2022, accounting for 3.0% of total revenue[47] Assets and Liabilities - Property, plant, and equipment increased to RMB 17,179.6 million in 2023 from RMB 15,397.6 million in 2022[4] - Cash and bank balances rose to RMB 24,125.2 million in 2023, compared to RMB 15,211.2 million in 2022[4] - Total current assets increased to RMB 28,461.4 million in 2023 from RMB 18,361.5 million in 2022[4] - Total equity attributable to the parent company's owners was RMB 28,570.9 million in 2023, up from RMB 24,084.1 million in 2022[5] - The company's long-term bank deposits, pledged deposits, cash, and bank balances increased by 32.7% to RMB 25,639 million as of December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 19,316 million in 2022[57] - The company's inventory increased by 46.7% to RMB 3,092 million as of December 31, 2023, compared to RMB 2,108 million in 2022, with inventory turnover days increasing from 50.5 days to 55.0 days[59] - Trade receivables and bills increased to RMB 547 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 479 million in 2022, with turnover days decreasing from 5.2 days to 4.4 days[60] - Trade payables and bills increased to RMB 1,770 million as of December 31, 2023, from RMB 1,425 million in 2022, with turnover days increasing from 33.3 days to 33.8 days[61] - The company's capital gearing ratio increased to 11.2% as of December 31, 2023, compared to 10.5% in 2022, primarily due to increased use of bill financing[62] - The company holds HKD 1,536 million and USD 462 million in foreign currencies as of December 31, 2023, with a foreign exchange gain of approximately RMB 46 million for the year[65] Research and Development - Research and development costs in 2023 amounted to RMB 349,148 thousand, up from RMB 277,166 thousand in 2022, reflecting increased investment in innovation[20] Marketing and Product Development - The company launched new 4L handle bottle design for natural water products, enhancing user experience and expanding usage scenarios[41] - "Dongfang Shuye" tea brand introduced new flavors and packaging, including a 900ml drinkable size, to meet diverse consumer needs[42] - "Scream" beverage partnered with the Chinese University Basketball League to strengthen its professional image in the sports field[44] - "Power Emperor" vitamin water introduced new flavors and engaged in youth-oriented marketing activities to enhance brand vitality[44] - The "17.5°" juice brand launched a seasonal fresh-squeezed orange juice, emphasizing freshness with a 36-hour process from picking to packaging[45] - The "NFC" series introduced a 900ml large bottle of 100% NFC guava mixed juice, expanding the product matrix and receiving positive consumer feedback[46] - The company upgraded its marketing system in 2023, integrating brand and channel marketing to achieve efficient, automated, and intelligent operations[50] Corporate Governance - The company has adopted all code provisions of the Corporate Governance Code as its corporate governance guidelines and has complied with them for the year ended December 31, 2023, except for a deviation from Part C.2.1 of the Code[88] - Zhong Shanshan serves as both the Chairman and General Manager of the company, a dual role that the Board believes benefits the company's management[89] - The Board consists of four executive directors (including Zhong Shanshan), two non-executive directors, and three independent non-executive directors, ensuring a high level of independence[89] - The Board has adopted the Standard Code as the rules governing the trading of the company's listed securities by directors and supervisors, and all directors and supervisors confirmed compliance with the Standard Code for the year ended December 31, 2023[89] - The 2023 annual report will be sent to shareholders upon request and will be available on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and the company's website[90] Employee and Equity Incentives - The company has over 20,000 employees as of December 31, 2023, with total employee welfare expenses (including director remuneration) of RMB 4,931 million for the year[73] - The company implemented an employee equity incentive plan in 2022, granting a total of 6,636,400 H shares, representing 0.059% of the total issued shares and 0.1318% of the issued H shares[75] - The employee equity incentive plan has a validity period of 10 years, with approximately 7 years remaining as of the announcement date[75] - As of April 2022, 2,610,000 shares from the equity incentive plan have met the first vesting condition, while 44,184 shares were forfeited due to unmet conditions[75] - 1,708,200 incentive shares met the second vesting condition and were vested, while 285,048 shares were forfeited due to unmet conditions, and 102,760 shares were forfeited due to employee resignations or demotions[76] Financial Commitments and Investments - The company has committed RMB 4,437 million in capital commitments as of December 31, 2023, primarily for the construction of production facilities and the purchase of production equipment[66] - The company signed an investment agreement for a RMB 5 billion project in Jiande, Zhejiang Province, involving the acquisition of approximately 1,000 mu of industrial land[67] - As of December 31, 2023, the company has utilized approximately HKD 4,900 million (52.26%) of the total net proceeds from its IPO, with the remaining HKD 4,477 million to be used according to the prospectus[69] - Total available net amount for brand building is HKD 2,344 million, with HKD 1,003 million used and HKD 1,341 million remaining, expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2024[70] - Total available net amount for purchasing sales equipment is HKD 2,344 million, with HKD 371 million used and HKD 1,973 million remaining, expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2024[70] - Total available net amount for purchasing production facilities and building new factories is HKD 1,875 million, with HKD 1,438 million used and HKD 437 million remaining, expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2024[70] - Total available net amount for basic capacity building is HKD 938 million, with HKD 212 million used and HKD 726 million remaining, expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2024[70] - Total available net amount for all purposes is HKD 9,377 million, with HKD 4,900 million used and HKD 4,477 million remaining, expected to be fully utilized by December 31, 2024[70] - The company has sufficient financial resources to continue operations in the foreseeable future based on current financial forecasts and available financing[71] Audit and Compliance - The Audit Committee reviewed the consolidated annual results for the year ended December 31, 2023, and is chaired by Stanley Yi Chang[86] - The company's independent auditor, Ernst & Young, has agreed with the figures in the consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2023, as presented in the performance announcement[87] - The company did not purchase, sell, or redeem any of its listed securities during the year ended December 31, 2023[85] Taxation - The corporate income tax rate for the company's Chinese subsidiaries is 25%, with certain subsidiaries in western China eligible for a preferential tax rate of 15% if their encouraged business activities account for over 60% of total income[24] - The company's Hong Kong subsidiaries had no taxable profits in 2023, resulting in no provision for Hong Kong profits tax[25] Receivables and Payables - Trade receivables and bills receivable increased to RMB 547,021,000 in 2023 from RMB 478,587,000 in 2022, with a credit period typically of one month, extendable to three months for major direct sales customers[28] - The aging analysis of trade receivables and bills receivable shows that RMB 506,235,000 was due within 90 days in 2023, compared to RMB 440,293,000 in 2022[29] - The impairment loss allowance for trade receivables increased to RMB 34,680,000 in 2023 from RMB 30,511,000 in 2022, reflecting a net impairment loss of RMB 4,169,000[29] - The company uses a simplified approach to calculate expected credit losses for trade receivables under IFRS 9, allowing for a lifetime expected credit loss provision[29] - Bank acceptance bills, which are unconditionally accepted by banks within the term, are not subject to impairment loss provisions[30] - The company employs a provision matrix for impairment analysis of trade receivables, reflecting probability-weighted outcomes and time value of money[30] - Trade receivables are written off when there is evidence of severe financial difficulty of the counterparty and no realistic possibility of recovery[30] - The expected credit loss rate for accounts within 90 days in 2023 was 3.52%, with a total book value of RMB 520,886 thousand and an expected credit loss of RMB 18,352 thousand[31] - The expected credit loss rate for accounts between 91 to 180 days in 2023 was 13.64%, with a total book value of RMB 32,605 thousand and an expected credit loss of RMB 4,447 thousand[31] - The expected credit loss rate for accounts between 181 to 365 days in 2023 was 44.36%, with a total book value of RMB 22,698 thousand and an expected credit loss of RMB 10,069 thousand[31] - The expected credit loss rate for accounts over 365 days in 2023 was 100%, with a total book value of RMB 1,812 thousand and an expected credit loss of RMB 1,812 thousand[31] - The company's trade payables and notes payable within 90 days in 2023 amounted to RMB 1,598,162 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 1,355,022 thousand in 2022[33] Sales and Distribution - Sales and distribution expenses were RMB 9,284 million in 2023, an 18.7% increase from 2022, but the expense ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 21.8%[52] Statutory Reserves - The company's statutory reserve fund is currently set at 10% of the post-tax profit attributable to equity holders, and no further allocation is required once the reserve reaches 50% of the registered capital[82]

研究报告Research Report 28 Feb 2024 农夫山泉 Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) 首次覆盖：品牌为王、渠道致胜，高周转成就大规模 The Dual Advantages of Brand and Channel, High Turnover Achieves Large-scale : Initiation [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Inevie1s] tment Focus [T首ab次le_覆Inf盖o] 优于大市Initiate with OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 软饮料为壁垒低、高度竞争的行业，同时单瓶利润薄、需要高周 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 转，比拼企业的综合能力。包装水龙头经过多次变迁，“1元水”时 现价 HK$44.75 代娃哈哈领跑，“1.5 元水时代”康师傅凭借深度分销与价格优势领 目标价 HK$50.00 先，“2 元水”时代怡宝凭借轻资产与渠道组合拳短暂领先后，最终 农夫山泉王者归来。目前包装水已进入中低速增长阶段，行业未 市值 HK$225.30b ...

福州烟台山景区下，一条人流如织、车水马龙的街道上，一家门面并不显眼的零食店内，一张写着各类快消品比价的易拉宝却引入注目： “定价2元一瓶500毫升的农夫山泉，店里卖1.2元。” “定价3元一听的雪碧，店里卖1.8元。” “……” （地歌网作者拍摄） 时间才到正月大年初三（2月12日），加盟商就开始正常营业；而望向店内，来买零食的大多是年轻宝妈和学生，每个人手里基本都拎着购物篮。 这家坐落在福州烟台山下的零食店，仅仅是去年零食折扣行业如火如荼的缩影。 2023年以来，随着经济环境的变化，消费降级的趋势料将持续，供应商出清尾货的需求依然很大，KA零食品牌也在不断寻找传统商超之外的新渠道。 近年来迅速崛起的零食折扣渠道迎来大机遇。 硬币的正面，头部新势力正通过扩张、并购来集中力量抢占市场份额。2023年9月，万辰集团合并旗下4个零食品牌，并收购外部品牌 “老婆大人”，门店总数突破4300家；11月，零食很忙、赵一鸣零食官宣合并，品牌门店合计破6500家。 同时，腰尾部玩家加速出清。2023年6月，成立七年的“a1零食研究所”被曝已关闭80%的门店，覆盖区域收缩至福州、厦门两城。 硬币的背面，良品铺子等头部零食品 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招银国际发布研究报告称，考虑到农夫山泉(09633)业绩潜在超预期可能性，维持“买入”评级，并把公司加进我们短期推荐名单(茅台、伊利、新秀丽)。预计下半年净利润达到55亿元人民币，同比增39%；全年净利润超额完成至26.5%，略高于管理层和市场预期，目标价57.8港元。 该行预计，公司下半年营收同比增长31%，优于上半年的增速以及市场预期和之前的管理层指引。另预计公司平均单价在没有提价举措前提下维持稳定，而产品升级以至于新品推出将为单价带来低单涨幅。按品类来看，瓶装水维持稳定增长，大约在9%左右（全年约10%）；茶饮料增速爆发，下半年增速翻倍（全年约80%）；果汁饮料和功能饮料分别有望取得超过20%的增长（全年20%+左右）。毛利率方面，由于PET的采购价格在去年下半年出现下行情况，该行认为下半年毛利率能企稳在59%左右，拉动全年毛利率同比提升2个百分点到59.4%。公司在下半年按季节性需求加大宣传投入，但全年来看三费倍率维持稳定，费率增速与营收增速同步（约27%）。 ...

農夫山泉股份有限公司 NONGFU SPRING （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） (A joint stock company incorporated in the People’s Republic of China with limited liability) CO., 股份代號 Stock Code : 9633 LTD. ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不 負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對因本公告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責 任。 NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. 農夫山泉股份有限公司 （於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） 9633 （股份代號： ） 2023 年 中 期 業 績 公 告 2023 年中期業績摘要 • 總收益為人民幣20,462百萬元，同比增長23.3%； • 母公司擁有人應佔溢利約為人民幣5,775百萬元，同比增長25.3%； • 每股基本盈利為人民幣0.51元，同比增長24.4%。 農夫山泉股份有限公司（「本公司」或「農夫山泉」）董事（「董事」）會（「董事會」）欣然 公佈本公司及其附屬公司（合稱「本集團」或「我們」）截至2023年6月30日止六個 月（「報告期」）的按國際財務報告準則（「國際財務報告準則」）編製的未經審核中 期簡明綜合業績（「本公告」），連同截至2022年6月30日止同期的比較數字。 ...