Core Viewpoint - Company maintains a "buy" rating for MINISO (09896), projecting significant revenue and profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its global expansion and optimization of operations [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, MINISO's revenue reached 4.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, an increase of 10.6% [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Performance - In Q2 2025, MINISO's domestic store count increased by 30, with a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year growth of 190 stores [2] - The same-store sales in Q2 2025 showed a low single-digit growth, indicating a positive trend in performance, with an estimated average revenue per store of 611,000 yuan, up 7.87% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Future Projections - Revenue projections for MINISO are set at 21.32 billion yuan for 2025, 25.45 billion yuan for 2026, and 30.00 billion yuan for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.59 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.12 billion yuan respectively [1] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 2.91 billion yuan, 3.53 billion yuan, and 4.20 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MINISO (09896) maintains a "buy" rating, with projected revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The expected revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 21.32 billion, 25.45 billion, and 30.00 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 2.59 billion, 3.40 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan [1] - The company is recognized as a global leader in daily goods retail, leveraging its advantages in channels and supply chains to expand rapidly worldwide [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, MINISO achieved revenue of 9.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, with adjusted net profit of 1.279 billion yuan, up 3.0% [2] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, and adjusted net profit of 690 million yuan, up 10.6% [2] - The domestic store count increased by 30 in Q2 2025, reaching a total of 4,305 stores, marking a year-on-year increase of 190 stores [2]

Core Viewpoint - A designer has accused Miniso of copying their original design for a Harry Potter-themed ring, leading to a lawsuit and highlighting ongoing issues with intellectual property disputes involving the company [1][2][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit and Accusations - The designer, Zavier, has filed a lawsuit against Miniso, claiming that the company's product closely resembles their original design [2][4]. - Miniso has not publicly responded to the allegations as of the time of reporting [2][8]. - The designer provided evidence, including original design drafts and comparison images, to support their claims of similarity in design elements [5][4]. Group 2: Intellectual Property Issues - Miniso is currently involved in 13 legal cases related to intellectual property and unfair competition, with 5 cases specifically concerning design patent infringement and copyright issues, where the company is the defendant [2][11]. - The company has faced multiple accusations of copying designs from other brands, including products similar to Starbucks and Dior, raising concerns about its business practices [9][11]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Business Strategy - In the first half of the year, Miniso reported a revenue increase of 21.1% to 9.393 billion yuan, but net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 22.6% to 906 million yuan [15]. - Despite revenue growth, the number of Miniso stores in mainland China decreased by 81, indicating potential challenges in market expansion [15][16]. - The CEO of Miniso stated a shift in focus from quantity growth to optimizing channel combinations, with a new emphasis on larger store models [16].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the supply situation of IPs in the trendy blind box market, highlighting three main sources of IPs: classic famous animation characters, current blockbuster film and animation characters, and original characters created by artists [2][12]. IP Supply - The three sources of IPs have distinct advantages: classic IPs rely on cultural accumulation, blockbuster IPs leverage content popularity, and original IPs thrive on design innovation [2][12]. - Companies like Pop Mart utilize a "self-owned IP + co-branding" strategy for revenue diversification, while 52TOYS focuses on authorized IPs to solidify its niche market [2][12]. Raw Material Supply - The raw material supply for trendy blind boxes is categorized into basic materials, special materials, and auxiliary materials, with a market characterized by dispersed basic materials and concentrated high-end materials [5][7]. - Major brands, such as Pop Mart, establish deep ties with core suppliers to create competitive advantages, while smaller players benefit from industrial clusters in regions like Dongguan to reduce costs [5]. Production Supply - China has a vast toy manufacturing industry with over 70,000 toy manufacturers, providing a solid supply chain for trendy blind boxes [8]. - The ability of manufacturers to quickly respond to market demands through flexible production capabilities helps lower costs and ensures stable product supply [8][12]. Sales Channel Supply - The sales channels for trendy blind boxes are characterized by a multi-channel integration, driven by IPs, policy regulation, and technological innovation [9][12]. - Pop Mart's strategy includes a combination of online and offline sales, with plans to expand its physical stores and robot stores significantly by 2025 [11]. - Innovative sales tactics, such as pop-up stores and limited-time offers, have proven effective in driving consumer demand and enhancing sales [11].

Summary of Miniso's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Miniso - **Date**: September 8, 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - **Domestic Revenue Growth**: In Q2 2025, Miniso's domestic revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year, with same-store sales returning to positive growth. Average revenue per store was approximately 550,000 RMB, reflecting a 6.2% increase year-over-year, attributed to a lower base, organizational adjustments, and improved foot traffic [2][6][7] - **International Business Growth**: Miniso's international business saw a year-over-year growth of 28.6% in Q2 2025, with a 20.1% increase in store count. The U.S. market performed exceptionally well due to improved store efficiency, increased high-margin IP products, and localized teams [2][8] Strategic Focus - **Store Upgrades**: The company is focusing on upgrading stores, including the introduction of large store formats like Mini Land and Misol Land [2][9] - **IP Strategy**: Miniso is shifting from co-branding to developing its own IP, aiming for a more sustainable growth model [2][9][17] - **Overseas Expansion**: The company plans to continue its overseas expansion while upgrading its strategies [2][9][18] Market Challenges - **North American Market Challenges**: The North American market faces high baseline costs, tariff pressures, and brand recognition issues. Miniso is addressing these challenges by optimizing underperforming stores, increasing the proportion of direct sales, and enhancing local procurement [2][10][18] Financial Projections - **Profit Expectations**: Miniso expects adjusted net profits of 3 billion RMB, 3.515 billion RMB, and 4.2 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The company anticipates a 20x P/E ratio for 2026, targeting a market capitalization of 70.3 billion RMB [4] Top Toy Business Segment - **Growth in Top Toy Segment**: The Top Toy segment achieved a revenue growth rate of 73% in the first half of 2025, with a quarterly growth rate of 87% in Q2, significantly exceeding the industry average of 30% [2][13] Store Types and Functions - **Diverse Store Formats**: Miniso operates various store types, including flagship stores, large stores, regular stores, and pop-up stores, each serving different market segments and customer experiences [2][16] IP Development - **Self-owned IP Development**: Miniso has begun developing its own IP, with the Gifford family IP achieving over 100 million RMB in sales since its launch, and expected to reach 400 to 500 million RMB [2][17] Global Expansion Strategy - **Localization and Brand Building**: In its global expansion, Miniso emphasizes direct sales in developed markets and partnerships in emerging markets, while maintaining a strong focus on brand recognition and localization of products [2][18][19] Historical Strategic Phases - **Strategic Evolution**: Miniso has undergone three strategic phases: rapid growth through unique positioning, IP strategy enhancement, and international expansion. The current focus on large stores, self-owned IP, and continued overseas expansion is expected to drive future growth [2][20]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting performances of two major players in the trendy toy industry, Pop Mart and Miniso, highlighting the challenges Miniso faces due to its reliance on a "Japanese" branding strategy that is increasingly viewed negatively by consumers [2][4][14]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart has achieved a revenue scale exceeding 10 billion, with over 7,600 stores globally and a market capitalization surpassing 400 billion HKD, reflecting a stock price increase of over ten times in two years [2]. - Miniso also boasts a revenue scale exceeding 10 billion and a market capitalization of 60 billion HKD, with a greater number of global stores compared to Pop Mart [4]. - Despite Miniso's success, its market performance and operational efficiency lag significantly behind Pop Mart, raising concerns among investors [6][14]. Group 2: Branding and Market Perception - Miniso's initial branding strategy heavily emphasized its "Japanese" identity, which was instrumental in its rapid expansion from 2015 to 2019, but this strategy has become a liability as consumer preferences shift [7][8]. - Recent controversies, such as mislabeling products and cultural insensitivity, have severely damaged Miniso's brand image, leading to a decline in consumer trust [9][10][11]. - The rise of domestic brands and a growing sense of national pride among consumers have resulted in a significant decline in interest in "Japanese-style" products, with searches for "Japanese style" dropping by 43% [10][12]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - To close the gap with Pop Mart, Miniso must focus on building its own IP ecosystem and optimizing supply chain management while also shedding its "Japanese" branding to redefine its market position [15].

Core Viewpoint - Miniso (MNSO.US) reported better-than-expected performance in Q2 2025, with revenue reaching 4.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, surpassing company guidance [1] - Adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] - Domestic same-store sales showed low single-digit growth, indicating gradual improvement in the domestic market [1] - The report suggests that Miniso, as a leading global private label retail brand, has significant overseas market expansion potential [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q2 2025 was 4.97 billion yuan, up 23.1% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan, an increase of 10.6% compared to the previous year [1] Market Position - Miniso is recognized as a global leader in private label retail, with substantial opportunities for growth in international markets [1] - The improvement in domestic same-store sales indicates a positive trend in operational conditions within the domestic market [1]

Core Insights - The investment approach focuses on identifying businesses with potential for long-term growth and significant terminal value generation [1] - Emphasis is placed on understanding core business economics, including competitive advantages, unit economics, reinvestment opportunities, and management quality [1] - The goal is to generate long-term free cash flow and create shareholder value through fundamental research in sectors with strong secular tailwinds [1] Investment Philosophy - The investor is self-educated and has been active in the investment field for 10 years, currently managing personal funds sourced from friends and family [1] - The motivation for sharing insights on platforms like Seeking Alpha is to provide valuable analysis and receive feedback from other investors [1] - The analysis aims to help readers focus on the key drivers of long-term equity value, advocating for a blend of analytical rigor and accessibility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the contrasting performance of Pop Mart and Miniso in the new consumption sector, with Pop Mart continuing to thrive while Miniso faces volatility in its stock price and market perception [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Pop Mart's stock price has increased by 37% since August, with a market capitalization exceeding 400 billion yuan [1]. - Miniso's market capitalization is currently less than 60 billion HKD, with a valuation of only 22 times earnings, indicating a lack of investor enthusiasm [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Miniso reported revenue of 9.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.1%, but its net profit dropped nearly 20% [4]. Group 2: Store Expansion and Revenue - Miniso opened 554 new stores overseas in the first half of 2025, nearly three times the number of new stores opened in mainland China [4]. - As of June 30, 2025, Miniso had a total of 7,612 stores globally, with 3,307 located overseas [5]. - Approximately 75% of Miniso's new stores in the past year were opened overseas, highlighting its focus on international expansion as a key growth driver [5]. Group 3: IP and Brand Strategy - The significant difference in performance between Pop Mart and Miniso can be attributed to their respective approaches to intellectual property (IP) [3]. - Pop Mart's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 13.876 billion yuan, 1.5 times that of Miniso, with a year-on-year growth of 204.4% [13]. - Pop Mart's gross profit margin was 70.3%, compared to Miniso's 44.3%, showcasing the impact of brand premium and IP operations [14]. Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Miniso's reliance on a retail store model for growth may limit its performance potential, as increasing store density can lead to diminishing returns [6][10]. - The company faces challenges in transforming its business model and effectively leveraging IP to enhance store performance [12][29]. - Miniso has been gradually shifting towards original IP development, with plans to increase investment in this area, which could lead to greater growth if successful [28][31].

Group 1: Company Developments - Miniso has established a new cross-border e-commerce company in Hengqin with a registered capital of 500,000 yuan, focusing on software sales and blockchain technology services [2] - As of December 31, 2024, Miniso Group operates 7,780 stores globally, with a net increase of 1,219 stores, exceeding its opening targets for both domestic and overseas locations [2] Group 2: Economic Performance in Hengqin - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Hengqin reached 3.11 billion yuan from January to July, marking a year-on-year growth of 51.3% and achieving double-digit growth for six consecutive months [5] - The import and export total for Hengqin in the same period was 26.39 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 106% [6] Group 3: Financial Sector Growth - As of July 2025, there are 622 financial enterprises in Hengqin, with 81 licensed financial institutions and a registered capital of 13.2 billion yuan [3] - The cumulative cross-border RMB settlement amount in Hengqin reached 63.6 billion yuan by July 2025, with a total of 475.3 billion yuan settled from January to July [4] Group 4: Policy and Regulatory Developments - Hengqin is promoting cross-border e-commerce industry support applications, with a deadline for submissions set for September 15, 2025 [8] - New regulations effective from September 1, 2025, will support the development of digital trade and data processing trade in Hengqin, aiming to establish a secure cross-border data flow mechanism [8]