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名创优品:2024年报点评:业绩符合预期,收购永辉事项25Q1完成交割-20250323
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-23 12:21
证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 名创优品(9896.HK) 蔡昕妤 商贸零售分析师 执业编号:S1500523060001 联系电话:13921189535 邮 箱:caixinyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编:100031 [Table_Title] 名创优品(9896.HK)2024 年报点评:业绩符 合预期,收购永辉事项 25Q1 完成交割 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 3 月 23 日 [Table_S 事件:公司发布 ummary] 2024 年业绩,实现收入 169.94 亿元(人民币,下同),同 增 22.8%,调整后净利润 27.21 亿元,同增 15.4%,调整后净利率 16.0%, 同比-1pct。24Q4 公司实现收入 47.13 亿元,同增 22.7%,经调整净利润 7.925 亿元,同增 20.0%,经调整净利率 16.8%,同比-0.4pct。公司拟派发 末 ...
名创优品:国内转向优质精细化运营,高势能大店+海外延续高速展店值得期待-20250323
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-03-23 11:31
3 月 21 日公司披露 24 年财报,4Q24 营收 47.1 亿元,同比+22.7%, 调整后净利润 7.9 亿元(同比+20%),净利率 16.8%(同/环比+1.6/- 0.4pct),同比回暖主因受美国税盾、海外 4Q 旺季影响;24 年营 收 169.9 亿元,同比+22.8%,调整后净利 27.2 亿元,同比+15%, 净利率 16%(同比-1pct),4Q 业绩符合预期。 毛利率创新高,费用率受直营开店前置投入影响有所扩张。4Q24 国内/海外分别实现营收 25.8/21.3 亿元(同比+10%/+43%),毛利 率 47%(同/环比+3.9/+2.1pct)创历史新高,主因:①美国、欧 洲为代表的海外直营市场快速成长:4Q 直营市场占海外收入比例 45%(+5pct);②IP 类产品占比提升产品组合优化;③TOPTOY 产品 结构向稀缺独家盲盒/毛绒类产品调整。24 年直营门店相关开支/ 折旧租金开支/授权费/物流+72%/+89%/+29%/+51%,预计 25 年伴 随直营门店经营杠杆释放,费用率有所优化。 国内:24 国内同店承压,25 年聚焦同店优化高质成长。1)国内名 创:24 年 ...
名创优品:2024年报点评:业绩符合预期,收购永辉事项25Q1完成交割-20250323
Xinda Securities· 2025-03-23 05:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Miniso (9896.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on performance metrics and future projections. Core Insights - Miniso achieved a revenue of 16.994 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with an adjusted net profit of 2.721 billion RMB, up 15.4% year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% [1][3] - The company has completed the acquisition of 29.4% of Yonghui Supermarket, which is expected to impact financial results starting from Q2 2025 [4][5] - The report highlights strong growth in both domestic and international markets, with a significant increase in overseas revenue, which accounted for 41.7% of brand revenue in 2024, up from 35.9% in 2023 [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, Miniso's gross margin reached 44.9%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of overseas direct sales and increased contributions from high-margin products [3] - The total expenses for 2024 were 4.366 billion RMB, a 52% increase year-on-year, driven by a 100% increase in revenue from direct stores [3][6] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 740 million RMB, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of 2024 [1] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 21.174 billion RMB, 26.040 billion RMB, and 31.583 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 23%, and 21% [5][6] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 3.020 billion RMB, reflecting a 15% increase, with further growth anticipated in subsequent years [5][6] - The report anticipates that the acquisition of Yonghui will lead to synergies in brand development, supply chain upgrades, and product enhancement [5]
名创优品(09896) - 2024 - 年度业绩
2025-03-21 08:51
Financial Performance - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the total revenue reached RMB 16,994,025 thousand, representing an increase compared to the previous year's revenue of RMB 13,838,797 thousand[2]. - The gross profit for the fiscal year was RMB 7,637,060 thousand, which is a growth from RMB 5,698,431 thousand in the previous year, indicating a gross margin improvement[2]. - Operating profit for the fiscal year was RMB 3,315,789 thousand, up from RMB 2,819,648 thousand year-over-year, reflecting a growth of approximately 17.6%[2]. - The adjusted net profit for the fiscal year was RMB 2,720,612 thousand, compared to RMB 2,356,729 thousand in the previous year, marking an increase of about 15.4%[5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal year was RMB 4,334,325 thousand, which is an increase from RMB 3,571,405 thousand in the previous year, showing a growth of approximately 21.4%[6]. - Basic earnings per share for the fiscal year was RMB 2.11, up from RMB 1.81 in the previous year, reflecting a year-over-year increase of about 16.6%[2]. - The company reported a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of RMB 2,617,560 thousand for the fiscal year, compared to RMB 2,253,241 thousand in the previous year, indicating a growth of approximately 16.2%[2]. - The company reported a pre-tax profit of RMB 3,347.5 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[36]. - Net profit for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, reached RMB 2,635.4 million, representing an increase of 15.9% compared to RMB 2,274.0 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[48]. Store Expansion and Market Presence - As of December 31, 2024, the total number of Miniso stores increased from 6,413 to 7,504, representing a growth of approximately 17%[8]. - The number of TOP TOY stores increased from 148 to 276, marking an increase of approximately 86%[11]. - The number of Miniso stores in first-tier cities rose from 522 to 587, while in second-tier cities, it increased from 1,617 to 1,822[14]. - The net increase in Miniso partner stores in mainland China for the fiscal year was 457, bringing the total to 4,335[13]. - As of December 31, 2024, there were 503 direct-operated stores and 2,615 partner and agent stores in overseas markets[17]. - The number of Miniso partners in mainland China increased to 1,071, with 161 new partners added during the fiscal year[15]. - The net increase in TOP TOY stores in mainland China was significant, with 40 direct-operated stores and 236 partner stores as of December 31, 2024[11]. - Approximately 59% of the net increase in Miniso stores in mainland China came from first and second-tier cities[12]. - As of December 31, 2023, the total number of Miniso stores in overseas markets reached 2,487, with a projected increase to 3,118 by December 31, 2024, representing a growth of approximately 25.3%[19]. Revenue and Sales Growth - The total GMV generated by the group for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, was approximately RMB 30.4 billion[8]. - The total GMV for Miniso in overseas markets was RMB 10,989 million for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, with an expected increase to RMB 14,001 million for the fiscal year 2024, indicating a growth of about 27.4%[23]. - The total GMV for Miniso in mainland China was RMB 13,035 million for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, with a forecasted increase to RMB 14,008 million for the fiscal year 2024, showing a growth of approximately 7.5%[22]. - The same-store GMV growth rate in overseas markets was projected to be between 25% and 30% for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023[23]. - Revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 16,994,025 thousand, a significant increase from RMB 7,632,467 thousand for the six months ended December 31, 2023, indicating a growth of approximately 123%[87]. - The gross profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 7,637,060 thousand, compared to RMB 3,241,039 thousand for the six months ended December 31, 2023, reflecting a gross margin improvement[87]. - Operating profit for the year ended December 31, 2024, reached RMB 3,315,789 thousand, up from RMB 1,553,707 thousand for the six months ended December 31, 2023, marking an increase of approximately 113%[87]. - The net profit attributable to equity shareholders for the year ended December 31, 2024, was RMB 2,617,560 thousand, compared to RMB 1,248,405 thousand for the six months ended December 31, 2023, representing a growth of about 110%[87]. Expenses and Financial Management - The cost of sales for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, was RMB 9,357.0 million, up from RMB 8,140.4 million for the previous year[38]. - Sales and distribution expenses for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, amounted to RMB 3,519.5 million, a 54.3% increase from RMB 2,281.1 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[41]. - General and administrative expenses for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, were RMB 931.7 million, a 37.5% increase from RMB 677.4 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023[42]. - The total expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 13,808,150 thousand, compared to RMB 6,112,231 thousand for the six months ended December 31, 2023, indicating an increase of approximately 126%[119]. - The company's financial costs, including interest on loans and lease liabilities, totaled RMB 92,915,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024[122]. Shareholder Returns and Dividends - The company has authorized a share repurchase plan with a potential value of up to HKD 2 billion, extending the plan's duration until June 30, 2026[32]. - A special cash dividend of USD 0.2900 per American Depositary Share or USD 0.0725 per share was approved, totaling approximately USD 90.5 million, paid on April 9, 2024[84]. - A mid-term cash dividend of USD 0.2744 per American Depositary Share or USD 0.0686 per share was approved, totaling approximately USD 85.5 million, paid on September 23, 2024[84]. - The company repurchased a total of 5,997,000 shares for a total consideration of HKD 186.5 million on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and 1,415,586 American Depositary Shares for USD 22.7 million on the New York Stock Exchange during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024[77]. - The total number of shares repurchased and canceled accounted for approximately 1% of the company's total share capital as of December 31, 2024[77]. Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company plans to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores for RMB 6,270 million, which is expected to enhance its market presence in the retail sector[27]. - The company aims to enhance its product strength and optimize its store network as part of its long-term strategic goals for 2025[33]. - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence, with a focus on increasing the number of stores and enhancing product offerings in the Miniso and TOP TOY brands[106]. - The company has outlined a future outlook with a revenue growth target of 10% for the upcoming fiscal year[94]. - New product launches are expected to drive additional revenue, with projections estimating an increase of 5% from these initiatives[94]. - Market expansion strategies include entering three new international markets, projected to contribute an additional 1,000,000 million RMB in revenue[94]. - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio, with a budget allocation of 1,045.090 million RMB for potential mergers[96]. Governance and Compliance - The company has established three board committees, including the Audit Committee, Compensation Committee, and Nomination and Corporate Governance Committee, to oversee specific areas of its affairs[70]. - The company has adopted a securities trading policy to regulate all securities transactions conducted by its directors and relevant employees[68]. - The company has complied with all applicable provisions of the Corporate Governance Code during the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, except for the separation of the roles of Chairman and CEO[67].
名创优品(09896) - 2024 Q4 - 季度业绩
2025-03-21 08:45
Financial Performance - For the year ended December 31, 2024, revenue increased by 22.8% to RMB 16,994.0 million (USD 2,328.2 million) [10] - Gross profit rose by 34.0% to RMB 7,637.1 million (USD 1,046.3 million), with a gross margin of 44.9%, up from 41.2% in 2023 [10] - Operating profit increased by 17.6% to RMB 3,315.8 million (USD 454.3 million) [10] - Net profit for the period grew by 15.9% to RMB 2,635.4 million (USD 361.1 million) [10] - Adjusted net profit increased by 15.4% to RMB 2,720.6 million (USD 372.7 million), with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.0% [10] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 21.4% to RMB 4,334.3 million (USD 593.8 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.5% [10] - Total revenue for the quarter was RMB 4,712.7 million (USD 645.6 million), representing a year-over-year increase of 22.7% [32] - Operating profit reached RMB 968.4 million (USD 132.7 million), a year-over-year growth of 26.5% [38] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 792.5 million (USD 108.6 million), reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.0% [39] - Adjusted EBITDA grew by 23.3% to RMB 1,227.2 million (USD 168.1 million) [41] - Gross profit amounted to RMB 2,217.3 million (USD 303.8 million), with a year-over-year increase of 33.8% [35] - Gross margin reached a historical high of 47.0%, up 3.9 percentage points year-over-year [36] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 7,780, with a net increase of 1,219 stores during the year [13] - The number of MINISO stores reached 7,504, with a net increase of 1,091 stores [13] - The number of overseas MINISO stores achieved a milestone of 3,000, totaling 3,118 stores, with a net increase of 631 stores [13] - The total number of new stores opened globally in 2024 exceeded 1,200, surpassing initial expectations and setting a record for net new stores [16] - The number of Miniso stores in mainland China increased from 3,926 to 4,386, a net addition of 460 stores year-over-year [70] - The number of Miniso stores in overseas markets rose from 2,487 to 3,118, adding 631 stores year-over-year [73] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from the Miniso brand in mainland China grew by 10.9%, while overseas revenue surged by 41.9%, contributing to 41.7% of total brand revenue [21] - Revenue from overseas markets grew by 42.7% year-over-year to RMB 2,131,716,000 for the three months ending December 31, 2024 [67] - The revenue for the Miniso brand increased by 21.3% year-over-year to RMB 4,428,593,000 for the three months ending December 31, 2024, and by 22.0% to RMB 16,002,565,000 for the twelve months [67] Shareholder Returns - The company returned RMB 1,574.5 million to shareholders, including RMB 1,244.3 million in cash dividends and RMB 330.2 million in share buybacks [13] - The company announced a final cash dividend of RMB 7.4 billion, approximately 50% of the adjusted net profit for the second half of 2024 [17] Assets and Liabilities - As of December 31, 2023, total assets amounted to RMB 14,485,309 thousand, while total assets for December 31, 2024, are projected to be RMB 18,120,128 thousand, indicating a growth of approximately 25% [57] - Non-current assets increased from RMB 4,157,675 thousand in 2023 to RMB 6,464,627 thousand in 2024, reflecting a growth of about 55.5% [57] - Total liabilities increased to RMB 7,764,606 thousand as of December 31, 2024, from RMB 5,294,092 thousand in 2023, marking a rise of 46.8% [60] - The company reported a total equity of RMB 10,355,522 thousand as of December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 9,191,217 thousand as of December 31, 2023, indicating a growth of 12.7% [60] Future Plans - The company plans to accelerate same-store sales growth and optimize store layout and product categories to enhance efficiency in 2025 [18] - The company plans to expand its market presence and invest in new product development to drive future growth [61] - The company plans to continue expanding its presence in both domestic and international markets, focusing on enhancing brand penetration in lower-tier cities in China [67] Financial Metrics - The adjusted net profit for the company is defined as profit excluding equity-settled share-based payment expenses [50] - The adjusted EBITDA for the company is calculated as adjusted net profit plus depreciation and amortization, finance costs, and income tax expenses [50] - The adjusted net profit margin is calculated by dividing adjusted net profit by revenue for the same period [50] - The company emphasizes the use of non-IFRS financial metrics to provide a clearer understanding of its operational performance [51] - The company acknowledges the limitations of non-IFRS financial metrics, which may not reflect all income and expense items affecting operations [51] Cash Flow and Earnings - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 6,698.1 million (USD 917.6 million) as of December 31, 2024 [31] - Free cash flow for the year was RMB 1,405.8 million (USD 192.6 million) [31] - Basic earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) increased by 16.6% year-over-year to RMB 8.44 (USD 1.16) [31] - Basic earnings per share for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, were RMB 2.11, compared to RMB 1.81 in 2023, reflecting a growth of 16.6% [61] - The financial income for the three months ended December 31, 2024, decreased to RMB 18,999 thousand from RMB 54,603 thousand in the same period of 2023, indicating a decline of 65.2% [61] - The company reported a total comprehensive income of RMB 813,148 thousand for the three months ended December 31, 2024, compared to RMB 623,178 thousand in 2023, representing an increase of 30.5% [63]
名创优品20250319
2025-03-19 15:31
名创优品 20250319 摘要 Q&A 名创优品集团的业务结构是怎样的? 名创优品集团主要分为两个品牌板块:MINISO 和 Top Toy。MINISO 是自有品牌 生活家居零售商,定位为与 IP 联名集合店,是公司业绩的主要贡献者。2023 年,MINISO 贡献了公司约 95%的营收。Top Toy 是新锐品牌,起步较晚,2023 年收入占比约为 5%。 • 名创优品营收主要来自 NISO 品牌(约 95%),Top Toy 占比约 5%,但 Top Toy 作为新锐品牌增长迅速,未来潜力可期。 • 名创优品全球化布局显著,中国市场贡献约 64%营收,海外市场占 36%,海 外市场中代理和直营各占一半。公司采用轻资产模式,国内以合伙人/加盟 为主,海外以代理为主,单店经营利润率约 30%。 • 2019-2023 年,中国市场收入增速平稳(约 7%),北美、拉美、欧洲市场 高速增长。中国市场是毛利和净利主要贡献者,海外代理市场净利润贡献 较大,北美直营市场处于快速增长阶段。 • 公司战略升级于 2022 年 Q4 见效,海外市场率先复苏,推动股价上涨。 2024 年营收增速放缓,从 25%降至 20% ...
名创优品20250317
2025-03-18 01:38
Summary of the Conference Call for Miniso Company Overview - The conference call focuses on Miniso, a retail company, discussing its valuation and business performance in the context of the broader market and its competitor, Yonghui Superstores [3][5]. Key Points Valuation and Market Perception - Miniso's current market capitalization is approximately 50 billion HKD, while projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 are 3.45 billion and 4.2 billion RMB respectively. Based on a 20x P/E ratio, Miniso should be valued at over 80 billion RMB, around 90 billion HKD. The market's pessimistic outlook on Yonghui's losses is a primary reason for Miniso's undervaluation [3][4][5]. Yonghui Superstores Impact - The market anticipates Yonghui will incur a loss of 6 billion RMB next year, which is considered overly pessimistic. Historical data shows Yonghui's maximum loss was around 4.5 billion RMB, and the company is undergoing store adjustments and supply chain restructuring to improve profitability [4][5]. Domestic Business Performance - Miniso's domestic revenue share is expected to fall below 55% this year. Despite a 4% year-on-year decline in same-store sales, recovery is strong, with sales returning to 96%-100% of previous levels. The company plans to open 450 to 550 new stores to drive growth, minimizing reliance on same-store sales [4][6]. Overseas Business Growth - The overseas segment is identified as a core growth driver, benefiting from accelerated expansion, foreign exchange gains, and tax refunds. The depreciation of the RMB is projected to yield tens of millions in net profit, and the U.S. tax refund policy will continue to positively impact finances [4][7]. Market Conditions and Consumer Confidence - Recent consumer policies and increased foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks are favorable for new consumption sectors, enhancing investor confidence in Miniso and similar companies. The new consumption sector is undergoing a revaluation after two years of being undervalued [4][8]. Future Performance Expectations - Positive catalysts are expected following the Q2 earnings release, particularly in May. The market is focused on future guidance and expectations regarding Yonghui. The Q4 performance is already prepared, and the domestic business has experienced a downturn, leading to a currently low valuation [4][9]. Potential Risks - A recent safety issue regarding disposable underwear has minimal impact on Miniso, as this product accounts for a very small portion of revenue. Even if sales of this product were halted, the profit impact would be negligible [4][10][11]. Operational Strategy in the U.S. - Following the appointment of a new CEO in the U.S., the focus will be on optimizing revenue and costs, controlling store opening speed, and reducing rent and labor costs to enhance profitability. The overseas business is expected to grow at 40%, with direct stores growing at 60% and agency stores at 20% [4][12]. Profit Forecast and Valuation Outlook - Profit forecasts for the next two years suggest net profits corresponding to P/E ratios of 14x and 11x. The current valuation is around 10-11x, indicating significant undervaluation. A correction to a reasonable valuation of around 20x is anticipated, making Miniso one of the most promising companies this year [4][13].
名创优品叶国富“开了一枪”
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-02-11 23:46
Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on simplicity and efficiency in organizational processes is becoming a key focus for companies like Miniso, as they aim to combat formalism and enhance operational effectiveness [2][4][15]. Group 1: Company Initiatives - Miniso's founder, Ye Guofu, has introduced six major requirements aimed at eliminating formalism, including banning PPTs for internal communication and limiting meeting durations [4][14]. - The company aims to lead 100 Chinese IPs to global markets, with a strategic focus on simplifying communication and decision-making processes [5][7]. - Miniso's revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 12.281 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%, with a net profit of 1.826 billion yuan, up 11.6% [7]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The retail market is becoming increasingly competitive, with other brands also adopting IP collaborations, which poses a challenge for Miniso [11][12]. - Miniso's IP collaboration strategy has led to a 38% increase in licensing fees due to the growing IP portfolio [13]. Group 3: Long-term Goals - Ye Guofu has set ambitious long-term goals, including a plan to double the number of stores globally by the end of 2028, aiming for over 10,000 locations [8][10]. - The company is also expanding its presence in smaller cities, indicating a strategy to tap into underserved markets [9]. Group 4: Organizational Efficiency - The push against formalism is part of a broader strategy to avoid "big company disease," which can arise from organizational fatigue and inefficiency as companies grow [14][15]. - Miniso's internal assessments have identified the need to streamline processes and reduce unnecessary meetings to enhance productivity [14].
名创优品:择高而立,拥抱兴趣消费浪潮
Tebon Securities· 2025-01-25 12:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for MINISO (09896.HK) as a first coverage [1]. Core Views - MINISO is positioned as a global leader in the trendy lifestyle retail sector, focusing on high-quality, cost-effective products for young consumers. The company has successfully expanded its presence with 7,186 stores across 111 countries as of September 30, 2024 [11][12]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.35% in revenue from 2020 to 2023, and a significant recovery post-pandemic, achieving a revenue growth of 39.43% in 2023 [15][16]. - MINISO's strategic focus on IP (intellectual property) upgrades and global expansion is expected to drive future growth, with plans to increase store count significantly in high-consumption markets like North America and Europe [47][63]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - MINISO is the largest private label retailer globally, established in 2009, targeting young consumers with a focus on trendy, affordable products. The company has developed two main brands: MINISO and TOPTOY [11][12]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the founders holding 62.5% of the shares, ensuring stable governance [21][23]. 2. Historical Success Factors - The company has successfully navigated the competitive retail landscape by focusing on essential consumer goods and maintaining a self-operated sales model, which enhances brand recognition [27][28]. - MINISO's product strategy emphasizes frequent new product launches and competitive pricing, supported by a strong supply chain [30][32]. 3. Future Growth Prospects - The company aims to enhance its IP strategy, with a target of over 50% of sales coming from IP-related products by 2028. Currently, IP products account for over 30% of total sales [48][49]. - MINISO plans to expand its global footprint, targeting an annual increase of 900-1,100 stores worldwide from 2024 to 2028, with a focus on high-value markets [72][63]. 4. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts MINISO's revenue to reach CNY 171.67 billion, CNY 207.55 billion, and CNY 241.04 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of CNY 26.9 billion, CNY 33.5 billion, and CNY 40.8 billion [78]. - The company's valuation is projected to improve as it transitions from a channel retailer to a brand retailer, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.5, 16.5, and 13.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [78][79].
名创优品深度报告:IP航母扬帆出海
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-01-20 08:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a global IP retail store, leveraging "IP + retail" to unlock overseas growth potential [1] - The emotional consumption era is on the rise, with the IP retail industry experiencing upward momentum [1] - The company has a strong competitive edge through efficient supply chain management, robust IP operation capabilities, and scale advantages [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2013, has developed a comprehensive supply chain system and is now a leading player in the domestic household goods retail sector [15] - The company operates two brands: MINISO, focusing on household goods, and TOP TOY, targeting the trendy toy market [20] Industry Analysis - The IP retail sector is in its growth phase, with significant potential for expansion as China's per capita IP retail consumption is only about 1/4 of the global average [34] - The emotional consumption trend is gaining traction, with increasing consumer interest in IP-related products [40] Competitive Advantages - The company excels in supply chain efficiency, IP operation capabilities, and has a significant scale advantage with over 7,186 stores globally [2][60] - The company has established partnerships with over 150 top IPs, enhancing its product offerings and market presence [60] Market Expectations - The report anticipates better-than-market expectations for same-store sales in both domestic and overseas markets, driven by refined IP operations and targeted product categories [3][66] - The company is expected to continue expanding its store network, particularly in overseas markets, which will support same-store sales growth [3][67] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 172 billion, 213 billion, and 256 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 23.9%, and 20.2% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach 28.0 billion, 35.8 billion, and 43.7 billion for the same period, reflecting growth rates of 19%, 28%, and 22% [5]