Core Viewpoint - Hongmeng Zhixing has chosen not to comment on the recent testing conducted by Dongche Di, indicating a stance of non-engagement with the claims made by the platform [1] Group 1 - Hongmeng Zhixing's official Weibo account acknowledged awareness of the so-called "testing" by a certain platform [1] - The company has decided not to provide any comments regarding the testing results [1]

Core Viewpoint - Weibo (WB) has shown a positive financial performance with a notable increase in net profit, indicating potential growth opportunities in the social media sector [1]. Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Weibo reported total revenue of $397 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.34% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached $107 million, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 116.36% [1]. Upcoming Events - Weibo is scheduled to disclose its mid-year financial report for the fiscal year 2025 on August 28, with the actual date subject to company announcements [2]. Company Overview - Weibo is a leading social media platform that combines public self-expression with strong social interaction and content distribution capabilities [3]. - The platform allows users to create and share content, with features that enable asymmetric relationships among users, facilitating rapid topic dissemination and engagement [3]. - The majority of Weibo's revenue is derived from advertising and marketing services, including social display ads and promotional marketing ads [3]. - Weibo has developed a recommendation engine based on a "mobile-first" approach, enhancing the precision and effectiveness of marketing activities on its platform [3].

Group 1 - Astrada Advisors provides actionable recommendations aimed at enhancing portfolio performance and uncovering alpha opportunities, backed by a strong track record in investment research at leading global investment banks [1] - The company specializes in technology, media, internet, and consumer sectors across North America and Asia, excelling in identifying high-potential investments and navigating complex industries [1] - Astrada Advisors leverages extensive local and global experience to offer unique insights on market developments, regulatory changes, and emerging risks [1] Group 2 - The research conducted by Astrada Advisors integrates rigorous fundamental analysis with data-driven insights, providing a nuanced understanding of key trends, growth drivers, and competitive landscapes [1] - The focus of the company is to empower investors with timely research and a comprehensive view of industry dynamics, especially in volatile markets or when exploring new trends [1] - Astrada Advisors is committed to delivering superior insights to facilitate informed investment decisions [1]

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：崔世峰/许悦 核心观点 2025 年初步指引中利润率预期保守（30% Non-GAAP OPM），增速指引基本合理，2025 年关键变量在 于1）A I 提效； 2）渠道获客的策略变化；3）宏观改善。A I 侧指引较为合理，延续5%eCPM 的提升， 渠道策略预计维持平衡，宏观需要等待政策落地后逐步修复。我们认为2H25 改善的机会可能更大，当 前仍处于等待催化的阶段。股东回报方面，股息常态化提供底部估值支撑，但考虑到24Q3 以来股价涨 幅，我们认为当前阶段主要催化仍然聚焦回归增长，潜在的经营杠杆释放。 事件 微博发布1Q25 业绩，当季度收入、利润均超预期，展望谨慎微博1Q25 实现收入4. 0 亿美元，同比持 平，环比-13%，高于市场预期约1pct。其中，广告收入达到3. 4 亿美元，同比增长持平，环比-12%，超 出市场预期2pct；增值服务(VAS)收入达到0. 6 亿美元，同比+2%，环比-19%，逊于市场预期6pct。用户 活跃度方面，微博1Q25 MAU 达5.91 亿，同比增长0.5%，环比增长0. 2%，略高于市场预期0.9pct； DAU 为2.61 亿，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" with a target price of $15.04, up from a previous value of $12.92 [10][20]. Core Insights - The company reported a 1Q revenue increase of 0.3% year-over-year to $397 million, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.8%. Adjusted net profit rose 12.1% year-over-year to $120 million, surpassing expectations by 24.3% [1][4]. - The management anticipates steady growth in advertising spending from the automotive and mobile sectors in 2025, while the gaming and beauty sectors continue to face challenges, although the decline in beauty is narrowing [1][12]. - The AI-driven search feature, "智搜," has seen significant user growth, with MAU reaching 30 million in March, a 300% increase month-over-month, and daily usage averaging 8 million [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down by 0.8% due to decreased advertising spending in the gaming and beauty sectors, while revenue for 2026 and 2027 has been slightly increased by 0.1% and 0.6% respectively [4][16]. - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised down by 4.8%, 3.5%, and 1.5% to $460 million, $478 million, and $501 million respectively [4][16]. User Engagement and Advertising Efficiency - The report highlights that AI has improved advertising efficiency, with click-through rates (CTR) and effective cost per mille (eCPM) increasing by 10% and 5% respectively in certain scenarios [2][12]. - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and advertising efficiency through increased AI investments, which are expected to drive future revenue growth [1][20]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned to capture user engagement through its unique content ecosystem and real-time information capabilities, particularly in the news sector [11][20]. - The report notes that the company's valuation remains at a discount compared to global peers, primarily due to liquidity factors and slower revenue growth [20][22].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported 1Q25 results that met expectations, with revenue of $397 million, flat year-on-year, and Non-GAAP net profit of $120 million, up 12% year-on-year, exceeding both company and market expectations [1] Revenue Performance - Overall revenue performance remained stable, with notable contributions from automotive and e-commerce sectors. Advertising and marketing revenue was flat year-on-year, while value-added service revenue grew by 2% [1] - The automotive sector benefited from policy incentives and the company's positioning in "new car launch marketing," leading to year-on-year growth in Q1 advertising spend [1] - E-commerce advertising investment saw significant growth, with expectations for increased spending from e-commerce platform clients this year [1] Cost Management - Sales expenses decreased by 7.5% in 1Q25, attributed to the Chinese New Year and various social/entertainment hot topics that drove natural traffic [2] - The company effectively controlled sales expenses by adjusting channel spending in response to environmental dynamics [2] User Engagement - As of March 2025, the company reported a Monthly Active User (MAU) count of 591 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and a Daily Active User (DAU) count of 261 million, up 2.4% year-on-year [2] AI Strategy - The company's AI strategy focuses on several areas, including AI search, social interaction, content creation, and recommendations [2] - The AI search product, "Smart Search," achieved over 30 million monthly active users in March and was opened to all users in April [2] - AI applications in information flow bidding ads have shown potential to increase Click-Through Rate (CTR) by 10% and improve effective Cost Per Mille (eCPM) [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its profit forecast, with current stock prices corresponding to 4/4 times the Non-GAAP P/E ratio for 25/26 [2] - The target price is set at HKD 100.8 / USD 13, with potential upside of 48% / 54% for Hong Kong and US stocks, respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - Weibo's Q1 2025 financial results show stagnant revenue growth but a significant increase in net profit, attributed to reduced sales and R&D expenses, alongside a focus on AI applications and user growth [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Weibo reported net revenue of $397 million, flat year-over-year, with a 1% increase when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [3]. - Net profit attributable to Weibo shareholders reached $107 million, a 116.4% increase year-over-year, while non-GAAP net profit was $120 million, up 12.1%, exceeding market expectations [3][4]. - Operating profit for Q1 2025 was $110.3 million, compared to $99.7 million in Q1 2024 [4]. User Engagement - Weibo's monthly active users reached 591 million, and daily active users were 261 million, both showing consistent growth over multiple quarters [5]. - The company is enhancing AI applications and deepening vertical ecosystem development to stabilize user growth [5]. Advertising and Marketing - Advertising and marketing revenue remained under pressure, totaling $339 million in Q1 2025, flat year-over-year, with a 6% decline in revenue from non-Alibaba advertisers [6][7]. - Revenue from Alibaba's advertising increased significantly by 89% to $42.6 million, driven by promotional needs related to the Spring Festival and AI product marketing [6][7]. - The management anticipates stable growth in advertising revenue, particularly in the automotive and e-commerce sectors, despite cautious spending from some advertisers [7]. Value-Added Services - Value-added services, including membership and online gaming, generated $57.7 million in Q1 2025, a 2% increase year-over-year [8]. - The growth rate for value-added services is expected to stabilize at 2%-3% in the future, following a notable slowdown in growth [9]. AI Integration - Weibo is actively implementing AI technology to enhance its core competitiveness in social media, with features like "Weibo Smart Search" showing promising user engagement [9][10]. - The management is focusing on several strategic areas for AI application, including search capabilities, social interaction, content ecosystem, content recommendation, and commercial advertising [10].

Group 1 - The 21st China (Shenzhen) International Cultural Industries Fair will be held from May 22 to 26, with a significant "policy package" to support six key areas for high-quality cultural industry development [2] - The European Union plans to impose handling fees on small packages entering the EU, with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs advocating for a fair and transparent business environment for Chinese enterprises [2] - China and the ten ASEAN countries have completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0, adding nine new chapters including digital economy and green economy [2] Group 2 - International gold prices rebounded on May 21, with domestic gold jewelry prices surpassing 1,000 yuan per gram, with notable increases from major retailers [3] - Several banks, including Ping An Bank and CITIC Bank, have lowered deposit rates, particularly for medium- and long-term deposits, with some banks suspending five-year term deposits [3] - A surge in A-share buyback and increase plans has been observed, with 394 companies announcing such plans since the second quarter of 2025, a rise of over 60% compared to the first quarter [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed up 0.62%, with BYD shares rising over 4% to a new historical high, and southbound funds net buying exceeding 1.4 billion HKD [4] - UBS noted a growing international interest in Chinese assets, highlighting the strategic importance of the Chinese stock market for global investors seeking excess returns [4] Group 4 - Baidu reported Q1 revenue of 32.452 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a notable 42% growth in Baidu Smart Cloud [5] - Xpeng Motors achieved Q1 revenue of 15.81 billion yuan, a 141.5% year-on-year increase, with a projected delivery volume of 102,000 to 108,000 units in Q2 [5] - Weibo's Q1 revenue remained stable at 396.9 million USD, with a 12% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit [5] Group 5 - The stock price for Naxin Microelectronics was set at 163.15 yuan per share, with a subscription rate of 1.29 times from institutional investors [6] - The U.S. stock market saw declines across major indices, with significant drops in Chinese concept stocks such as iQIYI and Baidu [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weibo's total revenues for Q1 2025 reached $396.9 million, flat year over year, or up 1% on a constant currency basis [6][26] - Total advertising revenues were $339.1 million, flat year over year, while value-added service revenues increased to $57.7 million, up 2% year over year [26][27] - Non-GAAP operating income was $129.5 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 33%, with net income attributable to Weibo reaching $119.5 million, an increase of 12% [7][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advertising revenues related to the Spring Festival achieved double-digit growth year over year, with a notable increase in the number of participating advertisers [12] - E-commerce, dairy products, and food and beverage sectors showed solid growth, while the online game sector faced a year-over-year decline due to a high base effect from last year [18][20] - The handset manufacturer sector saw a decline in revenue, primarily due to shifts in product launch timelines [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In March 2025, Weibo's MAUs reached 591 million, and average DAUs reached 261 million, representing a net addition of 9 million users year over year [6][24] - The automobile sector continued to deliver growth, driven by both NEV brands and traditional OEMs increasing their budget allocation to Weibo [18] - E-commerce platforms, particularly Alibaba, ramped up ad spend during the Spring Festival, contributing to robust growth in advertising revenues [27] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Weibo's strategy for 2025 focuses on enhancing user value, solidifying its position in hot trends and entertainment content, and improving recommendation and search functions through AI integration [7][10] - The company aims to increase investment in vertical and video content ecosystems to drive user engagement and scale [7][10] - Weibo is committed to leveraging AI technology across various business scenarios, including search, social interaction, and advertising [13][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while advertiser budgets remain cautious, there is a gradual unlocking of ad spend based on market feedback [16] - The company expects solid growth across several industries, particularly in automotive and e-commerce, while acknowledging challenges in the gaming sector [19][53] - Management emphasized the importance of AI in enhancing advertising effectiveness and user engagement, with expectations for continued improvement in ad revenues [44][56] Other Important Information - Weibo completed the distribution of an annual cash dividend of $0.08 per ordinary share, totaling approximately $200 million [32] - The company released its first ESG report, highlighting commitments to sustainability across various key areas [33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overall thoughts on search progressions and future strategy - Management indicated that the AI search product has shown good improvement and will remain integrated within Weibo, focusing on hot topics and entertainment content [35][41] Question: Updates on AI monetization and advertising products - Management reported a 10% improvement in click-through rates due to AI integration, with ongoing efforts to enhance advertising effectiveness [36][44] Question: Outlook for Q2 and expectations for different industry verticals - Management expects Q2 performance to mirror Q1, with strong growth anticipated in automotive and e-commerce sectors, while challenges remain in gaming [50][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Weibo's total revenues for Q1 2025 reached $396.9 million, flat year over year, or up 1% on a constant currency basis [6][27] - Total advertising revenues were $339.1 million, flat year over year, while value-added service revenues reached $57.7 million, up 2% year over year [27][28] - Non-GAAP operating income was $129.5 million, representing a non-GAAP operating margin of 33% [7][27] - Net income attributable to Weibo increased by 12% to $119.5 million, with a net margin of 30% compared to 27% last year [27][32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Advertising revenues related to the Spring Festival achieved double-digit growth year over year, with a notable increase in the number of participating advertisers [12] - The e-commerce sector showed robust growth, particularly driven by Alibaba's increased ad spend during the Spring Festival [28][19] - The online game sector faced a year-over-year decline due to a high base effect from major campaigns last year and a decrease in new game launches [21][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In March 2025, Weibo's MAUs reached 591 million, and average DAUs reached 261 million, representing a net addition of 9 million users year over year [6][25] - The automobile sector continued to deliver growth, driven by both NEV brands and traditional OEMs increasing their budget allocation to Weibo [19][28] - The beauty and personal care sector saw a narrowing decline year over year, with sequential growth during the quarter [21][22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - In 2025, Weibo's strategy focuses on enhancing user value, solidifying its position in hot trends and entertainment content, and improving recommendation and search functions through AI integration [7][10] - The company aims to increase investment in vertical and video content ecosystems to drive user engagement and scale [7][10] - Weibo is committed to leveraging AI technology across multiple business scenarios, including search, social interaction, and advertising [13][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while advertiser budgets remain cautious, there is a gradual unlocking of ad spend based on market feedback [17] - The company expects solid growth in the automotive and e-commerce sectors in Q2, while the gaming industry continues to face challenges [55][56] - Management emphasized the importance of AI in enhancing advertising effectiveness and user engagement, with expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year [46][58] Other Important Information - Weibo completed the distribution of an annual cash dividend of $0.08 per ordinary share for the fiscal year 2024, totaling approximately $200 million [33] - The company released its first ESG report in April, highlighting its commitment to sustainability across various key areas [34] Q&A Session Summary Question: Overall strategy for search progression and AI monetization - Management discussed the integration of AI search models and noted improvements in user engagement and MAUs due to the launch of DeepSeek [40][41] - They indicated that while general purpose search still requires improvement, there has been a 5% increase in per capita search volume [42][43] Question: Advertising outlook for Q2 and updates on advertising products - Management expects Q2 performance to mirror Q1, with strong growth anticipated in the automotive and e-commerce sectors, while challenges remain in the gaming industry [53][55] - They highlighted the focus on new product marketing and performance-based advertising as core competitive advantages moving forward [57][58]