Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [4] Core Views - The company reported FY2025Q2 results with revenue and profit slightly exceeding previous guidance, but business growth is showing divergence, particularly in high-end segments like overseas education and cultural tourism, which are impacted by the macro environment [1] - The company expects a slowdown in revenue growth for FY2025, with projections adjusted from over 30% to over 25% for the year, and guidance for FY25Q3 non-selective business revenue growth set at 18%-21% [3][4] - The company anticipates a total of 1,143 schools and learning centers by FY25Q2, with a steady expansion forecast of 20%-25% for the full year [2] Financial Performance - For FY2025, the company forecasts net profits of $417 million, $555 million, and $672 million for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.06x, 14.32x, and 11.83x [4][9] - FY2025Q2 revenue reached $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19%, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 2% [8] - Non-GAAP operating profit for FY2025Q2 was $28 million, with a profit margin of 2.7% [8] Business Segments - The high-end business lines, particularly overseas exam preparation and cultural tourism, are experiencing significant growth but are also facing challenges due to macroeconomic factors [8] - K12 business remains resilient, with a year-on-year growth of 42.6% in new educational offerings for FY25Q2, and guidance for FY25Q3 growth exceeding 40% [8] - The cultural tourism segment saw a remarkable year-on-year revenue increase of 233% in FY25Q2, although growth is expected to slow in FY25Q3 due to external influences [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Insights - The core education business continues to show considerable growth, with FY25 Q2 revenue reaching $1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. Excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce, revenue grew by 31% [1] - The company reported a strong performance in overseas exam preparation and consultation services, with revenue growth of 21% and 31% respectively. Domestic exam preparation for adults and university students saw a revenue increase of 34.9% [1] - New educational initiatives maintained robust growth, with a revenue increase of 42.6%. Non-subject tutoring services were launched in approximately 60 cities, attracting around 994,000 registrations [1] - The company aims to enhance service quality and operational efficiency while balancing sustainable growth and profitability [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25 H1, the company reported revenue of $2.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. Operating profit was $310 million, up 37.9%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was $280 million, an increase of 41.9% [2] - The company has expanded its self-operated product offerings to 600 SKUs, contributing approximately 37% to total GMV [2] Operational Metrics - The Non-GAAP operating profit for FY25 Q2 was $28 million, a decrease of 45.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $32 million, reflecting a 6.2% increase [1] - The company recorded a net operating cash flow of $310 million for the quarter, with total cash and cash equivalents amounting to approximately $4.8 billion [3] Future Outlook - The company expects FY25 Q3 revenue (excluding self-operated products and live e-commerce) to be between $1.01 billion and $1.03 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 18% to 21% [4] Adjusted Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecast for FY25-27 has been adjusted to $5.2 billion, $6.3 billion, and $7.5 billion respectively. The adjusted net profit forecast for FY25-27 is $500 million, $620 million, and $750 million respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental-S (09901.HK) [4][7] Core Views - The company's FY2025Q2 revenue exceeded guidance, achieving net revenue of $1.039 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.4%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, net revenue reached $894 million, up 31.3% year-over-year [1] - The K12 business remains stable despite seasonal fluctuations, with a 5% quarter-over-quarter growth in learning centers. The company aims for a 20-25% year-over-year increase in teaching point capacity for FY25 [2] - The company expects a slight pressure on profit margins in Q3 due to macroeconomic impacts on high-end education and tourism businesses, while K12 education is anticipated to continue growing [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2025Q2 gross margin reached 52.02%, with operating profit margin at 1.9%. Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan, the operating profit margin was 2.8%, reflecting a year-over-year increase [3] - Deferred revenue as of FY25Q2 was $1.961 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 19.2%, which supports future revenue [4] Business Segments - Traditional education services such as study abroad exam preparation and consulting saw year-over-year growth of 21.1%, 31.0%, and 34.9% respectively, indicating stable performance during the off-season [2] - New business lines, including non-academic services, reported a 42.6% year-over-year revenue increase, with live commerce contributing significantly to overall GMV [2] Future Guidance - For FY2025Q3, the company projects net revenue (excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan) to grow by 18%-21%, with a conservative outlook due to macroeconomic pressures [4] - Full-year revenue for FY2025 is expected to grow by over 25% year-over-year [4] Financial Projections - The report forecasts Non-GAAP net profits of $501 million, $623 million, and $744 million for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 31.5%, 24.4%, and 19.3% [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved revenue of USD 1.039 billion in FY25Q2, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 32 million, up 6.2% year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 29.1% to USD 36 million [3][4] Revenue Performance - The core education business (excluding selection) saw revenue growth of 31.3% year-on-year, exceeding previous guidance of 25%-28% [4] - Revenue from overseas exam preparation and consulting services grew by 21.1% and 31.0% year-on-year, respectively, with the consulting business benefiting from an increase in 2+2 projects and early revenue recognition [4] - Revenue from adult and college exam preparation services increased by 34.9% year-on-year, supported by a more favorable competitive landscape due to the exit of several institutions from the market [4] - New education business revenue grew by 42.6% year-on-year, with non-subject tutoring services expanding in nearly 60 cities and enrollment increasing by 26.5% to 994,000 [4] Guidance and Profitability - For FY25Q3, the company expects revenue (excluding selection) to be between USD 1.0073 billion and USD 1.0325 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18%-21% [5] - The company has adjusted its full-year revenue growth guidance (excluding selection) to 25% in RMB terms, down from a previous estimate of 30% [5] - The gross margin for FY25Q2 improved by 0.6 percentage points to 52.0%, while the Non-GAAP operating margin decreased by 3.2 percentage points to 2.7% due to pressures from new tourism and selection businesses [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report lowers the net profit forecast for FY2025-2027 to USD 413 million, USD 555 million, and USD 712 million, respectively, reflecting reductions of 13%, 12%, and 11% [6] - The projected EPS for FY2025-2027 is USD 0.25, USD 0.34, and USD 0.44, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18x, 13x, and 10x [6] - The report expresses optimism about the education training industry's outlook and the company's competitive advantages, maintaining the "Buy" rating [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company's core business performance exceeded expectations in Q2 FY2025, with revenue of $1.039 billion, a year-over-year increase of 19.4%, and a net profit of $31.93 million, up 6.2% year-over-year [1]. - The core business revenue, which includes education and cultural tourism, grew by 31.3% year-over-year, reaching $894 million, surpassing previous guidance [2]. - The company anticipates a slowdown in growth for its overseas business in the second half of FY2025, projecting a revenue increase of approximately 15% for overseas study-related services due to rising costs and changing parental attitudes [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 FY2025 revenue was $1.039 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 19.4%. Operating profit was $19.26 million, down 9.8% year-over-year, while net profit was $31.93 million, up 6.2% year-over-year [1]. - The core business (education + cultural tourism) revenue reached $894 million, a year-over-year increase of 31.3%, exceeding the upper limit of previous guidance [2]. Business Segments - The overseas examination and consultation revenue grew by 21.1% and 31.0% year-over-year, while domestic examination revenue increased by 34.9% [2]. - The K9-related new business saw a year-over-year growth of 42.6%, driven by strong demand and stable capacity expansion [2]. Future Guidance - For Q3 FY2025, the company expects core business revenue to be between $1.0073 billion and $1.0325 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 18-21% [3]. - The anticipated slowdown in overseas business growth is attributed to high demand fatigue and rising overseas study costs [3]. Investment Projections - The report projects total revenue for FY2025 to be $4.873 billion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14% over three years [5]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be $475 million for FY2025, with a CAGR of about 20% over three years [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company's education business performed well, with non-e-commerce revenue growing by 31% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous management guidance. However, the e-commerce business negatively impacted overall profit performance [1][8] - For FY2025Q2, the company achieved net revenue of $1.039 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.4%, with non-e-commerce revenue at $894 million, up 31.3%, surpassing prior guidance of 25%-28% [1][8] - The company anticipates non-e-commerce revenue growth of 18-21% for FY2025Q3, which is lower than the initial 30% growth forecast due to external consumption pressures [3][17] - The company is actively responding to industry trends by launching targeted programs, such as early study abroad training for youth, to mitigate impacts from high-end product demand pressures [18] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2025Q2, the company reported a net profit of $31.93 million, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 29.1% to $35.54 million, primarily due to the impact of the subsidiary's divestiture [1][8] - The operating profit for FY2025Q2 was $19.26 million, down 9.8% year-on-year, with Non-GAAP operating profit at $27.58 million, down 45.8% [1][8] Business Segments - The education new business segment grew by 42.6% year-on-year, while high school training increased by 20%, maintaining strong performance [2][11] - The e-commerce business saw a decline of 23% year-on-year due to the completion of the divestiture of "With Huixing" [2][11] - Deferred revenue as of the end of FY2025Q2 was $1.961 billion, up 19.2% year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [12][15] Capacity Expansion - The company expanded its capacity by 5% quarter-on-quarter, with the number of schools and learning centers reaching approximately 1,143, a 12% increase year-on-year [12][15] - The company remains on track to achieve its annual capacity expansion plan of 20-25% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The company's non-e-commerce revenue (education and cultural tourism) grew by 31% year-on-year, slightly exceeding previous management guidance, while overall net revenue reached $1.039 billion, a 19.4% increase [1][8] - The company is expected to face pressure on high-end product demand, leading to a downward revision of revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 [3][18] - The company remains a leading player in the education and training sector with a clear growth logic [18] Revenue and Profitability - For FY2025Q2, the company achieved a net revenue of $1.039 billion, with non-e-commerce revenue at $894 million, reflecting a 31.3% increase [1][8] - The operating profit was $19.26 million, down 9.8% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP operating profit was $27.58 million, down 45.8% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was $31.93 million, a 6.2% increase, while Non-GAAP net profit was $35.54 million, down 29.1% [1][8] Business Segment Performance - The education new business segment grew by 42.6% year-on-year, while high school training increased by 20% [2][11] - The e-commerce business declined by 23% due to the divestiture of "With Huixing" [2][11] - The cultural tourism business is expected to remain in a loss state due to low revenue during the traditional off-season [2][11] Capacity Expansion and Deferred Revenue - The company expanded its capacity by 5% quarter-on-quarter, with a total of approximately 1,143 schools and learning centers, a 12% increase year-on-year [12] - Deferred revenue reached $1.961 billion, a 19.2% increase year-on-year, although the growth rate has slowed compared to previous quarters [15] Future Outlook - For FY2025Q3, non-e-commerce revenue is expected to grow by 18-21% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown from earlier projections [3][17] - The company is actively responding to industry trends by launching targeted programs, such as early training for youth studying abroad, to stabilize its business [18]

Core Insights - New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. reported mixed results for Q2 fiscal 2025, with earnings missing estimates while net revenues exceeded expectations, leading to a 23.2% drop in stock price [1][3]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings were 22 cents per ADS, missing the consensus estimate of 47 cents by 53.2%, and decreased 24.1% year-over-year [3]. - Total revenues reached $1,038.6 million, slightly surpassing the consensus by 0.4% and growing 19.4% year-over-year. Excluding certain revenues, net revenues were $894.2 million, marking a 31.3% increase compared to the previous year [4]. - The overseas test preparation and study consulting segments grew by 21.1% and 31.0% year-over-year, while the domestic test preparation business saw a 34.9% increase [5]. Business Initiatives - New educational initiatives recorded a 42.6% revenue increase year-over-year, with non-academic tutoring courses offered in about 60 cities, attracting approximately 994,000 student enrollments [6]. - The company focused on aligning capacity expansion with revenue growth and enhancing its online-merge-offline teaching system [2]. Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenues increased by 17.9% year-over-year to $498.3 million, while non-GAAP operating costs rose 23.5% to $1,011.1 million, primarily due to accelerated capacity expansion and new business integrations [7]. - Selling and marketing expenses increased by 26.6%, and non-GAAP general and administrative expenses rose by 24.7% [8]. Operating Margins - Non-GAAP operating income was $27.6 million, down 45.8% year-over-year, with a non-GAAP operating margin of 2.7%, a decrease of 320 basis points from the previous year [8]. - The non-GAAP operating margin, excluding certain contributions, improved by 12 basis points year-over-year to 3.2%, indicating resilience in managing profitability [9]. Cash Position - As of November 30, 2024, the company had total cash and cash equivalents of approximately $1,418.2 million, up from $1,389.4 million at the end of fiscal 2024 [10]. Share Repurchase Program - The board approved a share repurchase program, increasing the authorization to $700 million, with approximately 11.2 million ADS repurchased for $542.8 million as of January 20, 2025 [11]. Future Guidance - For Q3 fiscal 2025, the company expects total revenues, excluding certain revenues, to be between $1,007.3 million and $1,032.5 million, indicating an 18-21% growth year-over-year [12].

淘宝百亿补贴也开始区域竞价。 淘宝百亿补贴近期上线区域竞价功能，商家可根据自身情况选择销售区域，以省份为单位竞价，每 个区域竞价获胜的前三名将被平台优先派单，前三名售罄后其他名次才有被派单的机会。天猫商家 参与该活动可享受交易佣金 100% 返还。 接近淘宝的人士告诉我们，这一调整旨在改善百亿补贴商品价格不够低的情况。一些经销商有意愿 在平台更低价卖货，但碍于品牌经销规则，担心商品窜货售外地被品牌处罚而未能报出最低价。平 台鼓励更多商家参与区域内竞价，在最低价的基础上叠加官方补贴，拿出比竞争对手更具优势的价 格。 拼多多在 2023 年前后便开始实施此类区域竞价模式。淘宝、京东等多家电商平台此后都开始力推 百亿补贴，从招商、货源管理到风控制度等各个环节学习拼多多。他们暂时都活在拼多多的影子 里，还没能动摇百亿补贴与拼多多强关联的用户心智。 教育新业务增速下降、东方甄选 GMV 收缩，新东方股价跌超 20%。 财报显示，新东方去年 9-11 月营业收入同比上升 19.4% 至 10.39 亿美元，经营利润同比下降 9.8% 至 1930 万美元。昨晚至今，这家公司美、港股股价都下跌超 20%，市值没了近 170 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for New Oriental [1][11] Core Insights - New Oriental reported a revenue of USD 1.039 billion for the second quarter of FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.4%. However, the Non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 29.1% to USD 36 million [2][8] - The education business continues to show strong growth, with a revenue increase of 28% year-on-year to USD 899 million. New business revenue, including non-academic training and learning machines, reached USD 301 million, up 43% year-on-year [3][9] - The overseas education business is facing challenges, with revenue of USD 249 million in the latest quarter, a 30.3% increase year-on-year, but expected to slow down in the next quarter due to reduced demand [4][10] Financial Performance and Forecast - For FY25, the adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be USD 493 million, with revenues expected to grow to USD 5.271 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 22.2% [6][11] - The company anticipates continued growth in non-academic training, with enrollment expected to reach 3.82 million, indicating significant potential compared to pre-"Double Reduction" policy levels [3][9] - The target price is set at USD 109.5 under the SOTP valuation, equivalent to HKD 85.6, maintaining the "Buy" rating [11]