Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3, with revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg's expectation of 14.6% [11] - The Non-GAAP net profit increased significantly by 221.2% to 191.56 billion yuan, primarily due to the sale of a stake in Makemytrip [11] - The adjusted EBITDA related to the main business was 63.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.7% increase, which also exceeded expectations [11] Revenue Breakdown - The company's accommodation booking revenue reached 80.5 billion yuan, up 18.3%, while transportation ticketing revenue was 63.1 billion yuan, up 11.6% [12] - International platform revenue is expected to grow by 40%, with Trip.com platform hotel and flight bookings increasing over 60% [12] - Domestic revenue is estimated to have grown about 10%, with hotel night stays maintaining a growth rate of 15% [12] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin decreased by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to structural impacts from the growth of Trip.com [13] - The operating profit margin (OPM) for the first three quarters showed a gradual improvement in the decline rate, indicating operational efficiency [13] - The company is expected to maintain a total revenue growth rate of over 15% despite short-term fluctuations in international travel [14] Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve Non-GAAP net profits of 318 billion yuan in 2025, with a dynamic PE ratio of 11x [14] - Revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are as follows: 61.86 billion yuan in 2025, 71.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 82.24 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [5][15]

便捷的预订流程，继续实现国际业务的快速增长。 国内酒店价格同比增速出现企稳趋势，入境游继续高增。Q3 公司整体住宿预订营业收入同比增长 18%、环比增长 29%，主要得益于强劲的旅游需求，尤其是夏季及国庆假期期间表现突出。国内消费者 旅游需求依然旺盛，游客追求新奇、沉浸式体验，旅游需求日益多样化，北京、上海、成都等主要城市 及拉萨等偏远地区、小城市预订量均呈现增长态势。酒店价格方面，Q3 酒店价格同比降幅收窄至低个 位数，黄金周期间国内酒店价格呈上涨趋势。入境游方面， Q3 携程平台上入境游预订量同比增长超过 100%，亚太地区为主要客源地，欧洲和美国也实现强劲增长。我们继续看好政策及市场需求驱动入境 游单量保持高增。 盈利预测与投资评级：考虑到Q3 处置投资对业绩的积极影响，我们将2025 年公司经调整净利润预测从 183 亿元上调至323 亿元，维持2026/2027 年预测200/220 亿元，对应2025-2027 经调整口径PE 为 11/17/16 倍，我们继续看好公司海外业务成长，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：短期投入增加影响盈利能力，海外份额提升不及预期，旅游需求不及预期 机构：东吴证券 研究 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the hotel and duty-free industries, indicating a positive outlook for operational improvements in these sectors [1]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the overall pressure on consumption in the current macro environment, a structural recovery trend in certain consumer service sectors is becoming increasingly evident. Operational improvements are being observed, suggesting a gradual exit from the bottom range [4]. - The hotel industry is experiencing an optimization in supply-demand dynamics, with core operational data showing marginal improvements, indicating a mild upward trend in industry prosperity supported by sustained travel demand [4]. - The duty-free industry is expected to benefit from policy incentives, particularly with the upcoming operational phase in Hainan and the continued rollout of related policies, which are anticipated to catalyze new growth opportunities [4]. Industry Basic Data - The consumer services industry comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 498.804 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 457.081 billion yuan [1]. Market Performance - The consumer services sector experienced a decline of 4.86% this week, while the overall A-share market fell by 5.14%. The CSI 300 index decreased by 3.77% [7][23]. - Notable stocks in the consumer services sector that performed well include Dalian Shengya, Chuangye Heima, and Shangri-La (Asia) [4]. Important Announcements - Huazhu Group reported a 17.5% year-on-year increase in hotel revenue for Q3 2025, reaching 30.6 billion yuan, with net profit of 1.5 billion yuan [30]. - Ctrip Group's Q3 net operating revenue was approximately 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 16% year-on-year growth, with a net profit increase of 192.6% [30]. - Wanwu Xingsheng achieved a total revenue of 5.15 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 27.1% year-on-year increase [30]. Upcoming Shareholder Meetings - Several companies in the consumer services sector have scheduled shareholder meetings in the coming month, including Bubu Gao on December 11, Guilin Tourism on December 5, and Guangzhou Restaurant on November 28 [31].

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of the adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion yuan [1] Recent Events - Trip.com has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey are expected to grow by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings increasing by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's booking volume surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings grew by approximately 30%. Popular destinations include Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with Europe showing significant growth, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, they remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices have stabilized [2] - International business: Q3 saw a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings on Trip.com, with the Asia-Pacific region being a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Trends - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holidays. There is a diverse and growing demand for unique and immersive travel experiences among domestic consumers, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and even remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the United States [3]

Core Viewpoint - Dongwu Securities maintains a "Buy" rating on Trip.com Group (09961), highlighting strong growth potential in its overseas business and an upward revision of adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB [1] Recent Events - Trip.com Group has deepened its strategic partnership with the Turkish Tourism Promotion and Development Agency, aiming to position Turkey as a "super destination" for global travelers. Data shows that inbound flight bookings to Turkey increased by 38% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with hotel bookings up by 16%. Notably, Indonesia's bookings surged by 178% year-on-year, contributing to the rising popularity of inbound tourism in Turkey [1] International Business Growth - Outbound travel: In Q3, Trip.com's outbound hotel and flight bookings reached 140% of the same period in 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20%. During the Golden Week, bookings increased by approximately 30%. Popular destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, with significant growth in Europe, particularly in Iceland and Norway. Despite a decrease in cross-border flight prices compared to last year, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, while hotel prices remained stable [2] - International business: Trip.com reported a 60% year-on-year increase in total bookings in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as a key operational focus, growing over 50%. New markets in the Middle East and Europe also showed impressive growth. The company has achieved rapid market share growth and plans to continue investing globally, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. According to Sensor Tower data, the Trip.com app's monthly active users (MAU) outside mainland China grew by 69% year-on-year, with a 64% increase in the Asian market [2] Domestic Market Performance - Domestic hotel prices have shown signs of stabilization, with Q3 overall accommodation booking revenue increasing by 18% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong tourism demand, particularly during the summer and National Day holiday. There is a growing diversity in tourism demand, with increased bookings in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, as well as in remote areas. Hotel price declines narrowed to low single digits in Q3, with an upward trend during the Golden Week. Inbound travel bookings on Trip.com increased by over 100% year-on-year in Q3, with the Asia-Pacific region as the main source market, alongside strong growth from Europe and the U.S. [3]

Summary of Ctrip Group's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ctrip Group (携程集团) - **Date**: November 21, 2025 Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Ctrip's domestic and outbound tourism is entering a low season, while overseas tourism is entering a peak season, with Trip.com’s revenue share expected to rise from 13% in Q3 to 17-18% in Q4, indicating a seasonal revenue structure change [2][5] - The company has not been significantly impacted by new competitors due to rational competition post-pandemic, with brands focusing on core positioning and customer loyalty rather than price wars [2][6] - The average daily rate (ADR) for hotels has shown signs of recovery, with a 15% increase in domestic hotel bookings in Q3 and a return to 2019 levels for outbound travel bookings [3][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic market performance was strong, particularly in leisure travel, with a 10% growth rate maintained in the first two months of Q4 [3] - Trip.com is expected to maintain over 50% growth in Q4, despite a high base from the previous year, with hotel business growth exceeding 40% of total revenue [3][4] AI Integration and Technology - Ctrip is implementing an "AI everywhere" strategy, integrating AI into its app for customer service, sales optimization, and user experience enhancement [2][7] - The company is developing an AI itinerary planning assistant that generates travel recommendations based on user inputs, aiming to improve operational efficiency and customer engagement [8][10] Revenue Structure and Commission Rates - Ctrip has no immediate plans to adjust commission rates for domestic or outbound businesses, focusing instead on market share growth [4][11] - Future commission rate increases may occur for Trip.com, currently at 8-9%, as the company prioritizes market share over immediate profitability [11] Market Recovery and Competition - The APAC market is recovering rapidly, with capacity restored to 90%, and Ctrip expects to capture more market share as some overseas OTAs have not returned to the Chinese market [13][15] - The company is focusing on high-value markets like Hong Kong and Singapore, where it has achieved profitability and is shifting marketing strategies from brand advertising to performance-based advertising [17][18] Challenges and Strategic Responses - Recent events in Japan have led to increased order cancellations, but Ctrip is adapting by promoting alternative destinations and monitoring travel trends [12] - The company is aware of the unique competitive landscape in Japan and Korea, where local OTAs dominate, and is adjusting its strategies accordingly [22][23] Future Outlook - Ctrip plans to maintain its marketing budget at current levels, with no immediate expansion expected, while anticipating a stable loss rate in 2026 [26][27] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly in the APAC region, and aims to leverage AI and data analytics to enhance its service offerings and operational efficiency [10][20] Additional Insights - Ctrip's focus on high-end international travel customers through Trip.com aligns with its strategy to enhance user experience and reduce reliance on third-party platforms [24][25] - The company is committed to optimizing its revenue structure by increasing the share of higher-margin segments like hotel bookings [11][19]

Group 1 - Douyin e-commerce's GMV growth exceeded 30% from January to October 2025, with an expected annual GMV surpassing 4 trillion yuan, approaching Pinduoduo levels [1][8] - Douyin's local life service business also saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 60% from January to October, and the annual GTV expected to exceed 800 billion yuan [1][8] - ByteDance's new strategy for Douyin e-commerce focuses on durable consumer goods to achieve market share breakthroughs and optimize traffic distribution mechanisms to enhance GMV [2][9] Group 2 - The Macau SAR government estimates the gross gaming revenue for 2026 to be 236 billion patacas, with a cautious outlook considering external economic uncertainties [2][11] - The government anticipates that tourism will continue to develop positively in 2026, supported by various favorable factors, despite a slight underperformance in actual gaming revenue in early 2025 [11][12] - The Macau government revised its 2025 gross gaming revenue estimate down to 228 billion patacas, reflecting a monthly revenue adjustment from 20 billion to 19 billion patacas [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the newly released draft regulations for personal information protection by large internet platforms in China, emphasizing the responsibilities and obligations these platforms must adhere to in safeguarding user data [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The draft regulations define large internet platforms based on user scale, specifically those with over 50 million registered users or 10 million monthly active users [5]. - Major companies like Tencent, Alibaba, ByteDance, and emerging AI firms such as DeepSeek and MiniMax are included under this definition, indicating a broader scope of regulation [3][5]. - The principle of "with great power comes great responsibility" is highlighted, indicating that larger platforms will face stricter compliance requirements [1][3]. Group 2: Compliance Requirements - Large platforms are required to establish dedicated personal information protection teams responsible for creating and implementing internal management systems and emergency response plans [10]. - The regulations mandate that personal information collected within China must be stored in domestic data centers, and platforms must conduct compliance audits and risk assessments [11]. - There is an emphasis on the need for platforms to publish social responsibility reports regarding personal information protection, which has previously been inadequately addressed by many companies [10]. Group 3: Independent Oversight - The draft regulations propose the establishment of independent supervisory committees composed mainly of external members to oversee personal information protection practices [13][15]. - These committees are tasked with monitoring compliance, evaluating the protection of sensitive personal information, and ensuring regular communication with users [15]. - Concerns are raised about the feasibility of these committees, as many platforms have yet to take significant steps towards establishing them [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the continuous expansion in overseas markets, with an optimistic outlook on the increase in international business share and profit margins [1][8] - Ctrip's international business is experiencing rapid growth, with significant increases in booking volumes, particularly in Turkey and other key markets [8] - The company's adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised from 18.3 billion to 32.3 billion RMB, reflecting strong performance and market share growth [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion RMB in 2023 to 76.17 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase significantly from 9.92 billion RMB in 2023 to 21.22 billion RMB in 2027, with a peak growth rate of 606.91% in 2024 [1] - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to rise from 13.07 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.02 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] Market Data - The closing price of Ctrip Group-S is 537.50 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 349.13 billion HKD [5] - The stock has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.19 based on the latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) [1] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.08, indicating its valuation relative to its book value [5] Operational Highlights - Ctrip's outbound travel bookings have reached 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019, with a year-on-year growth of nearly 20% [8] - The company has established a strategic partnership with the Turkish tourism board to promote Turkey as a global tourist destination, resulting in a 38% increase in inbound flight bookings to Turkey [8] - The report notes a stabilization in domestic hotel prices and a significant increase in inbound travel bookings, with over 100% growth year-on-year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The draft regulations on personal information protection for large internet platforms have been released, establishing criteria for identifying such platforms and outlining their obligations for personal information protection [1][2]. Group 1: Identification of Large Platforms - The draft specifies that platforms with over 50 million registered users or 10 million monthly active users will be classified as large internet platforms, which includes traditional internet giants and emerging AI companies [3][4]. - Companies like DeepSeek, MiniMax, and Kimi, as well as smart device manufacturers such as OPPO, vivo, and Honor, are also likely to fall under this classification due to their user base [1][3]. Group 2: Responsibilities and Compliance - Large platforms are required to establish dedicated personal information protection teams, appoint responsible personnel, and publish annual social responsibility reports regarding personal information protection [6][7]. - The draft emphasizes the need for platforms to store personal information generated within China in domestic data centers and to conduct compliance audits and risk assessments [7]. Group 3: Independent Supervision - The draft regulations propose the establishment of independent supervisory committees composed mainly of external members to oversee personal information protection compliance [10][11]. - These committees will be responsible for monitoring compliance with personal information protection regulations and will need to maintain regular communication with users [11].