Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has issued a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group Ltd (09961) despite an ongoing investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) regarding alleged monopolistic practices [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The SAMR's investigation focuses on exclusive agreements, traffic distribution mechanisms, and commission-related disputes [1] - Following the announcement, Trip.com experienced a significant drop in stock price, opening down 14.98% and reaching a low of 484.2 HKD, with early trading showing a decline of over 20% [1] Group 2: Market Competition - The domestic travel market in China is highly competitive, with multiple players in the hotel and transportation sectors [1] - Although Trip.com is the largest online travel platform by total transaction volume in China, competition from Meituan (03690) and Alibaba's Fliggy (09988) continues to impact market share dynamics and pricing strategies [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Daiwa expresses a constructive long-term view on Trip.com due to factors such as international expansion, recovery trends in inbound tourism, and the domestic hotel inventory cycle [1] - Short-term regulatory uncertainties may negatively affect investor sentiment, but such phases often present entry opportunities once regulatory measures become clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa has issued a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group Ltd (09961) despite an ongoing investigation by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) regarding alleged monopolistic practices [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The SAMR's investigation focuses on potential issues related to exclusive agreements, traffic distribution mechanisms, and commission disputes [1] - Following the announcement of the investigation, Trip.com experienced a significant drop in stock price, opening down 14.98% and reaching a low of 484.2 HKD, with early trading showing a decline of over 20% [1] Group 2: Market Competition - The domestic travel market in China is highly competitive, with multiple players in the hotel and transportation sectors [1] - Although Trip.com is the largest online travel platform in terms of total transaction volume, competition from Meituan (03690) and Alibaba's Fliggy (09988) continues to impact market share dynamics and pricing strategies [1] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Daiwa maintains a constructive long-term view on Trip.com due to factors such as international expansion, the recovery trend in inbound tourism, and the domestic hotel inventory cycle [1] - The short-term regulatory uncertainty may negatively affect investor sentiment, but historically, such periods often present entry opportunities once regulatory measures become clearer [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving perception of internet platforms, particularly in relation to their pricing strategies and market dominance, highlighting a shift in regulatory focus from consumer harm to supplier exploitation [1][2]. Industry Analysis - The hotel sector's RevPAR is under pressure, while the airline sector has recently emerged from four years of cumulative losses; in contrast, leading OTAs have seen their net profit margins exceed 30% [2]. - The significant disparity in profit distribution along the industry chain suggests a recalibration of the delicate balance described in the "two-sided market" theory [2]. Theoretical Framework - The concept of "natural monopoly" is introduced, emphasizing that internet industries exhibit characteristics of natural monopolies due to their subadditivity, where fixed costs are high but marginal costs are low [3]. - The article references Peter Thiel's assertion that the goal of companies is to achieve monopoly status, which is essential for recovering initial investments through pricing power [3]. Pricing Strategies - Internet platforms utilize a pricing strategy that differs from traditional markets, often charging sellers above marginal costs while providing subsidies to buyers, exemplified by credit card companies like Visa [5][6]. - The pricing model in two-sided markets is influenced by the externalities generated by users on both sides, leading to asymmetric pricing strategies [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The initial phase of internet platforms (0-1 stage) involves attracting users through free services, necessitating significant upfront investment often supported by venture capital [7]. - As platforms mature (1-N stage), they leverage their market position to implement pricing strategies that exceed marginal costs, thereby internalizing market resources and reducing information usage costs [7]. Regulatory Considerations - The article suggests that the natural monopoly characteristics of internet platforms necessitate regulatory frameworks that differ from traditional approaches, advocating for public ownership or regulatory oversight in managing these monopolies [9].

Market Overview - On January 15, A-shares opened lower and then experienced slight gains before declining, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.6% at 4101.52 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.44% at 14186.11 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.02% at 3314.88 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.87 trillion yuan, with over 3600 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The tourism and hotel sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Zhongxin Tourism hitting a two-day limit up and Shaanxi Tourism reaching the daily limit [4] - The precious metals sector was active, with Sichuan Gold nearing the daily limit and other stocks like Chifeng Gold and Hunan Silver following suit. Recent news indicated that spot silver prices surged over 7%, reaching a historical high of $93 per ounce, while spot gold also hit a record high of $4643 per ounce [2] - The lithium battery sector strengthened, with Tianhong Lithium rising over 14% and other companies like Tianji Co. and Huasheng Lithium also seeing gains. The price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate increased by 36.71% from the beginning of the month, reaching 160,000 yuan per ton [3] - The smart driving sector saw a rise, with stocks like Suoling Co. hitting the daily limit. The Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission announced plans for the large-scale application of high-level autonomous driving by 2027 [6] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities noted that despite recent regulatory measures to cool the market, overall trading activity remains high, with key indicators like daily trading volume and margin financing balances above long-term averages. The firm expects continued benefits for securities companies and a potential for revenue diversification and quality improvement [7] - CITIC Jiantou highlighted that the mid-term "stock-bond seesaw" effect will further support A-share performance, with macro liquidity showing characteristics of "internal and external easing resonance" [9] - Huatai Securities reported that the innovative drug sector is experiencing a liquidity recovery, with significant growth in BD transactions compared to the previous year, indicating a potential bullish trend for innovative drugs [10]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group's stock price plummeted significantly following the announcement of an antitrust investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading to a drop of 18.6% in Hong Kong trading on January 15, 2025 [4][5][11]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Ctrip's stock opened at 484.2 HKD, down 14.98%, and further declined to 463 HKD, marking an 18.6% drop with a trading volume exceeding 76 billion HKD [11][12]. - The stock's market capitalization reached 303 billion HKD, with a turnover rate of 2.4% [11][12]. Group 2: Regulatory Investigation - The State Administration for Market Regulation announced an investigation into Ctrip for suspected monopolistic behavior, which caused immediate market reactions and a significant drop in stock price [4][5][13]. - Ctrip has faced multiple regulatory inquiries since 2025, focusing on issues such as unfair competition and price manipulation [14]. Group 3: Business Operations and Financials - Ctrip operates in various sectors including hotel bookings, flight sales, and travel services, covering over 200 countries and 600 cities [6][14]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip reported revenues of 18.3 billion CNY, a 16% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 19.9 billion CNY, reflecting a 192.6% growth [15][16]. - Ctrip's market share in the hotel and travel market is estimated at 56% based on GMV, significantly higher than its competitors [16].

该行认为，携程2025年营业额的1%至10%作为罚款框架，这在方向上与法规一致(尤其是在2026年做出 决定并参考2025年营业额的情况下)。 仅就锚定效应而言，预计携程2025年的净收入为619亿元人民币;从惯性角度来看，1%至10%的罚款范 围，若应用于类似规模的营业额，则意味着约6-62亿元亿人民币，这并未考虑市监总局如何对相关营业 额基数的定义。 摩根大通发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961/TCOM.US)宣布，收到国家市场监督管理总局(市监总局)发出 的调查通知书。根据该通知书，市监总局已根据中国反垄断法开始对该公司进行调查。 ...

仅就锚定效应而言，预计携程2025年的净收入为619亿元人民币;从惯性角度来看，1%至10%的罚款范 围，若应用于类似规模的营业额，则意味着约6-62亿元亿人民币，这并未考虑市监总局如何对相关营业 额基数的定义。 该行认为，携程2025年营业额的1%至10%作为罚款框架，这在方向上与法规一致(尤其是在2026年做出 决定并参考2025年营业额的情况下)。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，携程集团-S(09961/TCOM.US)宣布，收到国家市场监督管理 总局(市监总局)发出的调查通知书。根据该通知书，市监总局已根据中国反垄断法开始对该公司进行调 查。 ...

Summary of Trip.com Group (TCOM) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Trip.com Group (TCOM) - **Market Cap**: $39.9 billion - **Enterprise Value**: $33.5 billion - **Current Price**: $62.78 - **12-Month Price Target**: $91.00 (Upside: 45.0%) [1][34] Key Industry Insights - **Regulatory Environment**: The State Administration for Market Regulations (SAMR) of the PRC has initiated an anti-trust investigation into TCOM, marking the first formal inquiry against the company under the Anti-Monopoly Law [1][3] - **Historical Context**: The investigation aligns with China's broader regulatory focus on online businesses, particularly in the OTA (Online Travel Agency) sector, aimed at promoting fair competition and preventing monopolistic practices [2][20] - **Previous Cases**: Similar investigations have been conducted against Alibaba and Meituan, resulting in significant fines and stock price volatility during the investigation periods [21][23] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for FY24, FY25, FY26, and FY27 are Rmb 53.3 billion, Rmb 62.1 billion, Rmb 70.9 billion, and Rmb 79.4 billion respectively, indicating a growth trajectory [7][18] - **EBITDA Growth**: Expected EBITDA for the same periods is Rmb 17.1 billion, Rmb 18.9 billion, Rmb 22.0 billion, and Rmb 25.0 billion, reflecting a positive growth outlook [7][18] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for FY24, FY25, FY26, and FY27 are Rmb 26.20, Rmb 46.30, Rmb 31.43, and Rmb 34.72 respectively [7][18] Market Reaction and Volatility - **Stock Price Reaction**: Following the announcement of the investigation, TCOM's stock price dropped by 18% intraday, indicating heightened market sensitivity to regulatory news [23] - **Historical Volatility**: Previous investigations into Alibaba and Meituan resulted in stock price declines of 13% and 23% respectively during their investigation periods, suggesting potential for similar volatility for TCOM [23][24] Investment Thesis - **Market Position**: TCOM is recognized as a dominant player in China's OTA market, with expectations of continued market share gains and expansion into lower-tier cities [33] - **Valuation**: The current valuation is considered undemanding, trading at approximately 14x FY26E P/E, close to the low end of its historical range [23][34] - **Risks**: Key risks include regulatory scrutiny, increased competition, and slower-than-expected recovery in outbound travel [34] Conclusion - TCOM is positioned for growth despite regulatory challenges, with a strong financial outlook and potential for market share expansion. However, investors should remain cautious of the volatility associated with ongoing investigations and regulatory actions [22][34]

Group 1 - The Chinese government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for home purchases until December 31, 2027, which aims to stimulate the real estate market by allowing tax refunds based on the sale and purchase amounts of properties [3][3][3] - The U.S. State Department announced a suspension of visa processing for 75 countries, effective January 21, as part of a reevaluation of screening and review processes [3][3][3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and related products, effective January 15, as part of its trade policy [4][4][4] Group 2 - OpenAI has signed a three-year agreement with Cerebras to procure up to 750 megawatts of computing power, with the total deal exceeding $10 billion, focusing on AI chip technology [7][8][8] - Skild AI has completed a $1.4 billion financing round, raising its valuation to over $14 billion, with participation from major investors including SoftBank and Nvidia [25][25] - Proxima, an AI biotechnology company, has secured $80 million in seed funding, led by DCVC, to advance its research and development efforts [26][26][26] Group 3 - The Chinese smartphone market is projected to see Huawei regain the top position by 2025, with an estimated total shipment of 285 million units, reflecting a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year [22][22][22] - The private equity firm, Huanfang Quantitative, reported a 56.6% average return in 2025, with assets under management exceeding 70 billion yuan, making it one of the leading quantitative hedge funds in China [6][6][6] - Ctrip is under investigation for alleged monopolistic practices, with the company stating it will cooperate fully with regulatory authorities [13][13][13]

经济观察网 1月14日，国家市场监督管理总局通报，近日，市场监管总局根据前期核查，依据《中华人 民共和国反垄断法》，对携程集团有限公司涉嫌滥用市场支配地位实施垄断行为立案调查。 对此，携程集团表示，公司将积极配合监管部门调查，全面落实监管要求，与行业各方携手共建可持续 发展的市场环境。目前，公司各项业务均正常运行，将一如既往地为广大用户和合作伙伴提供优质的服 务。 ...