新京报贝壳财经讯 10月24日，港股泡泡玛特午后再度跳水，盘中跌超4%，上个交易日收跌超9%。 ...

Core Insights - Bubble Mart (09992.HK) launched multiple new figurines on October 23, celebrating its 15th anniversary with the "Celebrate This Moment" series, featuring 15 regular and 1 hidden variant, with significant price increases observed for certain models [1][2] - The premium pricing for the new series is lower compared to previous successful launches, indicating a potential decline in market enthusiasm for the brand's latest offerings [1][2] - The company's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 30% since September, with a notable drop of almost 10% on October 23, marking the largest decline in six months [2][3] Product Launch and Performance - The "Celebrate This Moment" series includes popular characters like MOLLY, with the hidden variant "Sweetheart Party" seeing a price increase from 69 yuan to 519 yuan, a 6.5x premium [1] - Other regular models such as "Childlike Innocence," "Blow the Horn," and "Under the Curtain" also performed well, with premiums of 1.8x, 1.9x, and 1.3x respectively [1] - Previous successful series like "WHY SO SERIOUS" and "LABUBU 4.0" had much higher premiums, indicating a shift in consumer interest [1][2] Market Trends and Financial Performance - The lower premium pricing for the new figurines is attributed to the nature of the products and the materials used, which are more affordable, leading to less collector enthusiasm compared to other merchandise like keychains [2] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with the popular series "Wednesday" resulted in a highly sought-after keychain, with the North American version seeing a price increase from 399 yuan to 5499 yuan, a 12.8x premium [2] - As of October 24, the company's stock closed at 230.4 HKD per share, down 0.86%, reflecting ongoing investor concerns about revenue growth potential [4] Revenue Growth Projections - Bubble Mart announced a projected revenue growth of 245% to 250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with significant contributions from both domestic and international markets [4] - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185% to 190%, while overseas revenue is projected to increase by 365% to 370% [4] - Performance across various channels shows offline sales growing by 130% to 135% and online sales by 300% to 305%, indicating strong demand despite recent stock performance [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue from 2025 to 2027 to reach 38.53 billion, 49.50 billion, and 58.55 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 13.13 billion, 17.03 billion, and 20.19 billion yuan respectively, indicating strong growth potential in the collectible toy market [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The overall revenue for Q3 2025 is expected to grow by 245%-250% year-on-year, with domestic growth at 185%-190% and overseas growth at 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions such as Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe is projected to grow by 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] - As of the end of Q3 2025, Pop Mart has opened 154 overseas stores, with plans to reach 200 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company is accelerating its store openings in the U.S. and expanding partnerships with bookstores, including a collaboration with Books-A-Million to introduce Pop Mart products [2] - The recent launch of the Skullpanda collaboration has generated significant interest, with TikTok videos reaching 1.5 million views and over 137,000 likes [2] Group 3: Product Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue from offline and online channels in China grew by 130%-135% and 300%-305% respectively [3] - The company has increased the pace of new product launches, introducing 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025 [3] - The Starry People IP is gaining momentum, with significant demand for new plush products, indicating a strong market interest [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas, providing opportunities for new product launches [4] - The company anticipates the release of several key products during these important holiday periods [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guohai Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart (09992) and raises the company's profit forecast, expecting revenue and net profit growth from 2025 to 2027, driven by its leadership in the trendy toy culture and commercialization [1] Group 1: Revenue Growth - The company expects overall revenue growth of 245%-250% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with China growing by 185%-190% and overseas markets by 365%-370% [1] - Revenue from overseas regions is experiencing high growth, with Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe showing year-on-year increases of 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively [1] Group 2: Store Expansion - The company has accelerated its store openings in North America, with a total of 154 overseas stores by the end of Q3 2025, aiming for 200 by the end of 2025 [1][2] - A partnership with Books-A-Million has been established to enhance market penetration, with new products being launched in their stores and online [2] Group 3: Product Performance - The "Starry People" IP is gaining momentum, with Q3 2025 showing a 130%-135% year-on-year increase in offline revenue and a 300%-305% increase in online revenue [3] - The company launched 20 blind box products and 14 plush series in Q3 2025, indicating an accelerated product release schedule [3] Group 4: Seasonal Opportunities - Q4 is expected to be a peak season with multiple holidays, including Halloween, Double 11, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, which will drive sales [4] - The company anticipates the release of significant new products during these key holiday periods [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Pop Mart in Hong Kong experienced a significant decline, dropping over 4% to HKD 222 after a previous trading day where it fell more than 9% [1] Group 1 - Pop Mart's stock price is currently reported at HKD 222, reflecting a notable decrease [1] - The company faced a substantial drop of over 9% in the previous trading session, indicating ongoing volatility in its stock performance [1]

Group 1 - The stock of Pop Mart has seen a decline, with a drop of 4% reported on October 24 [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - On October 23, the Hong Kong stock market saw a net inflow of 5.345 billion HKD from northbound trading, with 4.77 billion HKD from Shanghai and 575 million HKD from Shenzhen [2] - The most bought stocks included China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883), Pop Mart (09992), and Meituan-W (03690), while the most sold stocks were Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347), Innovent Biologics (01801), and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) [2] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 2.68 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 4.975 billion HKD [3] - Pop Mart (09992) recorded a net inflow of 5.38 billion HKD, with total trading volume of 4.666 billion HKD [3] - Semiconductor stocks showed divergence, with SMIC (00981) receiving a net inflow of 4.25 billion HKD, while Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced a net outflow of 10.14 billion HKD [7] Group 3: Company-Specific News - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) received a net inflow of 9.79 billion HKD, driven by rising international oil prices due to sanctions on Russian oil companies [6] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net inflow of 7.93 billion HKD, with Morgan Stanley reporting a sales growth of 245% to 250% in Q3, exceeding expectations [6] - Meituan-W (03690) had a net inflow of 5.24 billion HKD, with strategic moves to enhance its overseas business [7] - SMIC (00981) is expected to benefit from increased demand for advanced wafer foundry services due to the growth of AI applications, leading to an upgrade in its rating and target price by Morgan Stanley [7] - Innovent Biologics (01801) and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) faced net outflows of 140 million HKD and 57.32 million HKD, respectively [8]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue growth of 245-250% in Q3 2025, accelerating from 204% in H1 2025, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] - The growth was supported by increased plush toy production capacity and the success of new IPs in various regions, including Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific [2][3] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with expectations for continued strong performance in Q4 due to a rich lineup of new products and a diversified IP strategy [4] Revenue Growth - Domestic revenue is expected to grow by 185-190%, while international revenue is projected to increase by 365-370% in Q3 2025 [1] - Online sales are anticipated to rise by 300-305%, with an estimated online penetration rate of 45-50%, surpassing historical peaks [2] - Offline revenue is expected to grow by 130-135%, with a doubling of average store efficiency compared to previous quarters [2] Regional Performance - Revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific region is projected at 170-175%, while North America and Europe are expected to see increases of 1265-1270% and 735-740%, respectively [3] - The company opened approximately 6 new stores in Asia-Pacific, 10 in North America, and 4 in Europe, maintaining a rapid expansion pace [3] Product and Market Strategy - The company is preparing for a strong Q4 with new product launches, including Halloween and Christmas-themed items, which are expected to boost sales [4] - The company is focusing on diversifying its business through collaborations with top global IPs and brands, expanding into new product categories such as desserts and accessories [4] Financial Projections - Adjusted net profit estimates for 2025-2027 have been raised by 17%, 9%, and 7% to 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion respectively [4] - The target price has been increased to 410 HKD, reflecting a target PE of 27x for 2026, adjusted from 29x due to changes in market risk preferences [4]

Company Performance - The company reported a 245%-250% year-on-year revenue growth for Q3 2025, with further acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarter. Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370%, exceeding both internal and market expectations due to new product launches and accelerated growth in the European and American markets, alongside a faster release of production capacity [1][2] Chinese Market Insights - In the Chinese market, same-store performance exceeded expectations, with offline channel revenue increasing by 130%-135%. The company has been optimizing store locations and retail layouts throughout the year, enhancing the operational capabilities of its teams in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1] - Online channel revenue saw a significant increase of 300%-305%, driven by capacity release and intensified efforts to combat scalping, leading to a notable improvement in the overall purchasing experience for fans. The higher profit margin from online sales is expected to further boost the company's profit margins in Q3 [1] Global Market Trends - The company's global IP popularity is on the rise, with revenue growth in the Asia-Pacific, Americas, and Europe regions recorded at 170%-175%, 1265%-1270%, and 735%-740% respectively. In Q3, the company opened 23 new stores overseas, including flagship locations in Berlin and New York [2] - The combination of celebrity influence, high-quality new products, and local operations has rapidly increased the popularity of LABUBU, attracting a growing fan base. Other brands like Xiao Ye and SP have also gained significant fan appreciation, evolving into globally recognized IPs [2] Brand Engagement and Product Strategy - The company is placing greater emphasis on the health of its IP and brand, with initiatives such as character meet-and-greets and anniversary tours to strengthen connections with fans and enhance the IP image. The company aims to balance supply release with real demand to mitigate negative effects from secondary market price fluctuations [2] - In anticipation of the Q4 holiday season, the company is launching a series of high-quality products, including Halloween-themed plush toys and collaborations with popular shows, while continuously optimizing store designs and establishing fan engagement systems [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to accelerated capacity release and expected growth during the overseas peak season, the company has raised its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 20% and 21% to 13.2 billion and 17 billion respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 23x and 18x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating in the industry, with a target price of 370 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 48% based on 35x and 27x adjusted P/E for 2025 and 2026 [2]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in overall revenue for Q3 2025, with a growth of 245%-250% compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Revenue from the China region grew by 185%-190%, while overseas revenue surged by 365%-370% [1] Revenue Breakdown - Offline channels in China saw a revenue increase of 130%-135%, while online channels experienced a remarkable growth of 300%-305% [1] - The overseas market continued its high growth trajectory, with the Asia-Pacific region growing by 170%-175%, the Americas by 1265%-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735%-740% [1] Market Dynamics - The online growth in China for Q3 significantly outperformed the 212% growth seen in the first half of the year, attributed to innovative channel strategies and the impact of pre-sale income recognition for key products [1] - In the overseas market, the Americas are expected to experience monthly fluctuations due to restocking schedules, while the European market focuses on expanding into untapped regions [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued high growth in the short to medium term, with the upcoming e-commerce promotions in China and the North American shopping season starting with Halloween [2] - For 2026, the company expects improved store efficiency in China and the Asia-Pacific region, alongside new business models being developed [2] IP Industry Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the trendy toy culture and commercialization, with IP being central to its business model [2] - The company has established an integrated platform covering the entire trendy toy industry chain, including artist discovery, IP operation, consumer engagement, and cultural promotion [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 400.62 billion, 580.21 billion, and 778.14 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 140.02 billion, 203.61 billion, and 276.87 billion [2]