证券代码：600025 证券简称：华能水电 公告编号：2025-004 华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司 关于第四届董事会第五次会议决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、董事会会议召开情况 （一）华能澜沧江水电股份有限公司（以下简称公司）第四届董事会第五次 会议（以下简称本次会议）于 2025 年 2 月 18 日以书面和电子邮件方式发出会议 通知，并于 2025 年 2 月 28 日在公司办公楼会议室以现场和通讯表决方式召开。 （二）本次会议应出席董事 15 人，实际以现场和通讯表决方式出席会议的 董事 15 人。公司董事长孙卫主持会议，公司部分监事和高级管理人员列席了会 议。 （三）本次会议的召集、召开、表决程序符合《中华人民共和国公司法》和 《公司章程》的有关规定。 二、董事会会议审议情况 （一）审议通过《关于延长公司 2024 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票股东大 会决议有效期的议案》。 根据公司 2024 年 3 月 19 日召开的 2024 年第一次临时股东大会决议，《公司 2024 年度向特定对 ...

交易还是产业交易但是这个也是延续了2024年点对网的交易那个协议里面的就是210地线以内的还是三毛协议210度以外是一个现在的一个挂钩的一个波动的基本的原则熟练的然后就西面东宋西面东宋简体电量的话我们判断是今年2025年和2024年相比的话基本上是持平的 因为省内的需求还是要保证的应该是还是优先保证省内的发电用的需求在这个枯期的时候我们还是进行一个尤其是年初的时候进行一个全发电那么一个东西所以今年的可能发电的这个枯性期的一个战可能会比2024年会稍微好一点这样的话2025年或者中和中和天下可能没有 大家预期的电量那么多了说到这个电价可能大家也会问到我们今年2025年的一个长鞋的一个前景的一个情况给大家报告一下对对对到目前为止公司的长鞋的发电量全军率约80%以上电价是同比2024年确实是下跌了但是比原先优步策的 预计降七分的这个是打了不少的折扣现在是降一分钱就同比2024年降一分钱这个这个是有什么概念的就相当于是2023年的水平了这个是全年拉平均了 但是我今年的性能是比去年增加的也就是说我有可能会在高电价这部分会多出一部分电来这个的话也是有利于整体整个上市公司电量的电价的一个节奏的一个调整这个可能会是一个好事情 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huaneng Hydropower is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 7.848 billion to 9.087 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.75% to 18.97% [2][5]. - The company's hydropower generation is projected to reach 107.929 billion kWh in 2024, a year-on-year growth of 2.53%, driven by improved water inflow and new unit commissioning [2][10]. - The renewable energy generation is expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 112.012 billion kWh in 2024, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year, supported by a substantial increase in installed capacity [2][10]. Summary by Sections Performance Outlook - The hydropower generation is expected to benefit from slightly improved water inflow, with the Lancang River basin showing a 0.5% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. - The company’s new units, including the Toba and Huanliangbao power stations, are expected to contribute to the overall generation capacity [10]. - The overall generation volume is anticipated to be supported by both volume and price increases, with market prices in Yunnan expected to rise due to ongoing supply-demand tensions [10]. Financial Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.52 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19.14, 18.40, and 16.91 [10]. - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 25.052 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of approximately 56% [13]. Expansion and Growth Strategy - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity with the commissioning of new units, which is expected to enhance its long-term growth prospects [10]. - A joint venture with Huaneng International to develop an integrated coal and renewable energy project is also in the pipeline, which includes a coal power capacity of 2 million kW [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [2][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 82.30 to 90.87 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.75% to 18.97% [4]. - The total power generation for 2024 is projected to be 1120.12 billion kWh, an increase of 4.62% year-on-year, driven by robust hydropower generation and significant growth in renewable energy output [4]. - The commissioning of new units is anticipated to drive growth in power generation in 2025, with the TB hydropower station expected to contribute significantly to the incremental power generation [4]. Financial Forecasts Revenue and Profitability - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 23,461.33 million yuan in 2023 to 24,794.56 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 5.68% [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 7,638.07 million yuan in 2023 to 8,229.92 million yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.75% [2][6]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 56% over the forecast period [2][6]. Key Financial Ratios - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.55 in 2023 to 19.27 in 2024, indicating improved valuation metrics [2][6]. - The Return on Equity (ROE) is forecasted to slightly increase from 11.34% in 2023 to 11.53% in 2024 [2][6]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow is expected to increase from 17,062.57 million yuan in 2024 to 22,030.11 million yuan in 2026 [5]. - Capital expenditures are projected to remain high, reflecting ongoing investments in new capacity [5]. Power Generation Insights - Hydropower generation is expected to grow by 2.53% to 1,079.29 billion kWh in 2024, supported by favorable water conditions and new unit commissioning [4]. - Renewable energy generation is anticipated to see a substantial increase of 127.09% year-on-year, reaching 40.83 billion kWh in 2024, with significant contributions from solar and wind energy [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for renewable energy and the commissioning of new hydropower units, which will enhance its competitive edge in the market [4]. - The strategic focus on expanding renewable energy capacity aligns with national energy policies and market trends, providing a solid foundation for future growth [4].

Financial Projections - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be between 7.848 billion and 9.087 billion CNY, an increase of 210 million to 1.449 billion CNY compared to the previous year, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.75% to 18.97%[3]. - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 7.882 billion and 9.122 billion CNY, an increase of 762 million to 2.002 billion CNY compared to the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.70% to 28.12%[4]. - The net profit for the previous year was 7.638 billion CNY, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 7.120 billion CNY[5]. - The earnings per share for the previous year was 0.40 CNY[5]. Performance Overview - The company achieved a total power generation of 112.012 billion kWh in 2024, which is a year-on-year increase of 4.62%[6]. - The increase in performance is attributed to the growth in installed capacity of renewable energy, a 0.5% increase in water inflow in the Lancang River basin, and rising electricity demand in Yunnan Province[6]. Audit and Risks - The performance forecast data has not been audited by a registered accounting firm[4]. - The company assures that there are no significant uncertainties affecting the performance forecast[7]. - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks as the forecast data is preliminary and subject to change[8]. - The official audited financial data will be disclosed in the 2024 annual report[8].

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the electricity market and power generation in Yunnan Province, China, focusing on hydropower and renewable energy sectors. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Negotiations in the Guangdong region are challenging, with initial expectations of a 70% consensus not being met, leading to fluctuating pricing and uncertainty in power generation agreements [1] - The framework agreements for power pricing and volume are stable, with no immediate impact from market fluctuations, but there is a potential for gradual price increases based on market conditions [2] - The expected surplus in power generation during the flood season contrasts with shortages during dry seasons, indicating a seasonal imbalance in supply and demand [4][5] Hydropower and Renewable Energy - The company anticipates a decrease in water levels compared to historical averages due to climate change, which may affect power generation capacity [6] - The integration of renewable energy sources has increased, but hydropower remains the primary source of electricity in Yunnan, with thermal power acting as a supplementary source [4] - The company is preparing for potential power shortages in 2025 by increasing reservoir capacity [5] Pricing and Agreements - The pricing mechanism for electricity is based on a mix of market rates and fixed agreements, with a significant portion of electricity priced according to coal benchmark rates [10] - Future negotiations for the next five-year plan (15th Five-Year Plan) are expected to begin later in the year, with the current agreements remaining in effect until new ones are established [7] - The company is exploring the impact of market pricing on its electricity sales, particularly in the context of inter-provincial trading [17] Capital Expenditure and Investment - The capital expenditure for 2025 is focused on ongoing projects and new renewable energy initiatives, with a similar scale to 2024 [12] - There is a potential for increased dividends if the company’s financial situation allows, although current cash flow is tied to self-built projects [13] - The company is considering financing options to support its growth, particularly in renewable energy and hydropower projects [19] Future Outlook - The company expects to maintain a stable electricity supply and pricing structure, with ongoing assessments of market conditions influencing future strategies [17][20] - The anticipated electricity pricing for 2025 is expected to be finalized soon, with indications of a downward trend in prices [21] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The company is actively involved in the trial runs of regional electricity markets, which may influence future pricing and operational strategies [9] - The integration of hydropower with wind and solar projects is being explored to optimize energy dispatch and pricing [14] - The company’s approach to asset management and depreciation differs from competitors, which may impact financial reporting and investor perceptions [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [7][9]. Core Views - The company achieved a total power generation of 112.01 billion kWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, with grid-connected power generation at 111.02 billion kWh, up 4.51% year-on-year [3][5]. - The increase in power generation is attributed to abundant water flow in the Lancang River basin, with a 0.5% year-on-year increase in water inflow, and a rise in electricity demand within Yunnan province [5][6]. - The company's new photovoltaic projects significantly boosted renewable energy output, with a total generation of 3.54 billion kWh in 2024, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 177.07% [6]. Financial Projections - The adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 247.14 billion, 271.69 billion, and 284.70 billion yuan respectively, with net profits projected at 81.90 billion, 89.36 billion, and 92.84 billion yuan [7][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.45, 0.50, and 0.52 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20.3, 18.6, and 17.9 [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 12.19, representing a potential upside of 35% [5][20]. Core Insights - The company is a leading hydropower and new energy developer in the Lancang River Basin, with a controlled installed capacity of 29.20 million kilowatts as of the first half of 2024. It has announced a joint project to enhance its system regulation capabilities [2][17]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a slight revenue decline of 0.5% in 2023, but a projected revenue growth of 7.3% in 2024. The net profit is expected to grow steadily over the next few years [3][5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to enhance its pricing power and overall profitability [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of Huaneng Group, holding a 50.4% stake, and focuses on hydropower development in the Lancang River Basin. It operates a cascade of hydropower stations with strong regulation capabilities [2][17]. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 23.50 billion and a net profit of RMB 7.60 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of -0.5% and 6%, respectively. The on-grid electricity price was RMB 0.221 per kWh, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [3][18]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of RMB 8.52 billion, RMB 9.53 billion, and RMB 10.11 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.47, RMB 0.53, and RMB 0.56 [5][20]. Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity through various projects, including the acquisition of Huaneng Sichuan, which adds 2.65 million kilowatts of installed capacity. New projects are expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [4][19]. - The company is also set to benefit from the issuance of tradable green certificates for new hydropower projects, which could enhance its revenue streams [4][19]. Valuation - The report uses a PE valuation method, assigning a multiple of 23x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 12.19. A PB valuation method suggests a fair price of RMB 12.72, indicating strong growth potential [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Hold" rating for Huaneng Hydropower [2][62]. Core Views - Huaneng Hydropower is a leading large-scale hydropower enterprise in China, focusing on the development and operation of hydropower and renewable energy resources in the Lancang River basin [12][19]. - The company has completed the 100% equity injection of Huaneng Sichuan Company, significantly enhancing its installed capacity [12][43]. - The company is actively pursuing a "water-wind-solar integration" strategy, with plans to invest in 84 new energy projects in 2024, aiming for an additional 10 million kW of capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [12][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Huaneng's Core Hydropower Platform - Huaneng Hydropower holds the development rights for the main stream of the Lancang River and is responsible for maximizing resource allocation in the basin [12][19]. - The company has a total installed capacity of 29.2032 million kW as of June 2024, ranking first in Yunnan Province [12][19]. 2. Contribution from Sichuan Hydropower and Rising Electricity Prices in Yunnan - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a power generation of 46.695 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 12.15% [2][28]. - The average market transaction electricity price in Yunnan increased by approximately 11.4% in 2023, reaching about 0.252 yuan/kWh [2][38]. 3. Abundant Hydropower Resources in the Lancang River Basin - The Lancang River basin has significant hydropower resources, with a total potential installed capacity estimated at 32 million kW [41][43]. - The company is implementing a "water-wind-solar integration" strategy to optimize cost efficiency and stabilize power output [45]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 24.55 billion yuan, 27.20 billion yuan, and 28.51 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 8.70 billion yuan, 9.69 billion yuan, and 10.14 billion yuan [2][62]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 19.5, 17.5, and 16.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [15] Core Views - The company's hydropower business is strong and sustainable, with a focus on both hydropower and new energy development [28] - The company's hydropower electricity price has long-term upward potential, supported by increasing renewable energy generation and market reforms [27] - The company's new energy generation business is expected to bring new growth opportunities [28] Market Data - Closing price: 9.41 yuan [2] - 52-week high/low: 12.25 yuan / 8.31 yuan [3] - Price-to-book ratio: 2.92x [5] - Market capitalization: 169.38 billion yuan [6] Financial Data - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 19.418 billion yuan, up 7.05% YoY [17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024: 7.226 billion yuan, up 7.78% YoY [17] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024: 14.346 billion yuan, up 11.94% YoY [17] - Basic EPS for the first three quarters of 2024: 0.38 yuan, up 9.09% YoY [17] - ROE for the first three quarters of 2024: 9.86%, up 1.26 percentage points YoY [17] Business Performance - The company's power generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 86.026 billion kWh, up 3.82% YoY, driven by new energy generation and increased hydropower output [18] - New energy generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.971 billion kWh, up 151.57% YoY [18] - Hydropower generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 83.056 billion kWh, up 1.69% YoY [18] - The company's financial expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.19%, down 0.97 percentage points YoY [18] Industry Position - The company ranks second in hydropower installed capacity among A-share companies and first in power generation capacity in Yunnan Province [20] - As of June 2024, the company's installed capacity was 29.2032 GW, with an additional 15 GW under construction or in the planning stage [25] Future Projects - The company is investing in the Yuwang Phase II coal power and new energy integration project, with a total capacity of 2×1,000 MW [26] - The company plans to add 3.09 GW of new energy capacity in 2024, providing incremental growth opportunities [25] Valuation and Forecast - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.379 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan, and 10.594 billion yuan, respectively [28] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.47 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan, respectively [28] - The PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 20.21x, 17.83x, and 15.99x, respectively [28] Industry Outlook - The hydropower industry is expected to benefit from long-term electricity price increases and market reforms [27] - The company's new energy projects are expected to contribute to future growth [28]