中远海运能源运输股份有限公司关于化工品供应链整合项目暨关联交易标的股权、资产 未发生减值的测试报告 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司 关于化工品供应链整合项目暨关联交易标的股权、资产 未发生减值的测试报告 中远海运能源运输股份有限公司(以下简称"本公司"或"公司")按照股权、资产 收购协议及《中远海运能源运输股份有限公司关于购买有关公司股权、资产暨关联交易 的公告》(公告编号:2024-052)中减值测试安排编制了本报告。 一、化工品供应链项目关联股权、资产收购基本情况 本公司附属全资子公司大连中远海运能源供应链有限公司(以下简称"LPG 公司") 及本公司分别与中远海运大连投资有限公司(以下简称"大连投资")、中远海运(上海) 有限公司(以下简称"上海中远海运")签署股权收购协议及资产收购协议,以现金合计 人民币 126,085.36 万元收购控股股东化工品物流供应链相关股权及资产。 截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日止，本公司已取得深圳龙鹏 70%股权、海南招港 87%股 权、西中岛港口 15%股权、两艘 LPG 运输船舶"金桂源"轮和"牡丹源"轮、上海能 化 100%股权以及香港能化 100%股权。 （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) transportation index and its fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]. Shipping Sector Summary - The VLCC transportation index for West Africa to Ningbo, China, has increased by 3.23% to 150.09 WS, despite a monthly decrease of 6.52%, indicating a significant annual increase of 24.85% [5]. - Key players in the core oil transportation sector include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping [5]. - The article highlights various shipping segments, including: - **Product Tankers and MR Fleet**: China Merchants Jinling Shipyard [5]. - **Container Shipping**: Major companies include COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Development, and Jinjing Shipping [5]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: Notable firms are China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Haitong Development [5]. - **Special/Chemical/Roll-on Roll-off Shipping**: Key players include COSCO Shipping Special, Xingtong Co., and Shenghang Co. [5]. Port Operations Summary - The article outlines significant port operations in various regions: - **Yangtze River Delta Hub**: Includes Nanjing Port, Lianyungang, Shanghai Port Group, and Ningbo Port [5]. - **Bohai Rim Hub**: Notable ports are Tangshan Port, Tianjin Port, and Qinhuangdao Port [5]. - **Southwest Hub**: Key ports include Guangzhou Port and Zhuhai Port [5]. - **Yangtze River Inland Ports**: Chongqing Port is highlighted [5]. Shipping Equipment and Logistics Summary - The core equipment manufacturing sector features companies like CIMC (China International Marine Containers), East China Heavy Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group [5]. - The energy and special equipment sector includes firms like Furui Special Equipment and Xizhuang Co. [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the oil shipping industry [2] Core Insights - The report discusses four scenarios regarding the impact of the Middle East conflict on the oil shipping market, highlighting potential demand fluctuations and pricing dynamics based on the conflict's duration and resolution [8][11] - The long-term outlook for the oil shipping market is optimistic, driven by a tightening supply-demand structure and significant market changes due to strategic acquisitions by major players [57][58] Summary by Sections Scenario Analysis - Scenario 1: If the conflict de-escalates quickly, the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a short-term surge in demand, with oil-producing countries motivated to clear storage and resume production, potentially resulting in highly elastic freight rates [2][8] - Scenario 2: If the Strait remains closed for an extended period, alternative pipelines could cover 56% of the Gulf's oil export turnover, and strategic oil reserve releases could fully compensate for demand shortfalls [2][8] - Scenario 3: If the conflict persists for months, the market may experience a similar pulse in demand as in Scenario 1, with additional demand from strategic reserve replenishment once the Strait reopens [3][9] - Scenario 4: Selective passage through the Strait could create a dual-track system in the global oil transport market, affecting freight rates significantly based on operational efficiencies and market access [10][44] Medium to Long-Term Outlook - The medium-term outlook is strengthened by the consolidation of the VLCC market, with significant acquisitions by major players like Sinokor, which now controls a substantial market share [57][58] - The supply side is expected to remain tight due to aging fleets and limited new deliveries, with marginal growth rates projected at 1.4% and 4.4% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [7][11] - Long-term demand is anticipated to strengthen due to a global oil production cycle, with OPEC+ having a potential increase of 3.24 million barrels per day, which could significantly impact shipping volumes [11][57] Key Companies Overview - The report highlights two major players in the oil shipping sector: COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping, detailing their fleet sizes and operational capacities [11][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11] Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics in the transportation sector are continuously improving, with oil price impacts yet to be fully realized. Profitability is on an upward trend across various sub-sectors [2][4] Summary by Sub-Sector Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing significant profitability improvements due to a combination of rising demand during the Spring Festival and a notable decrease in oil prices. The overall profitability is expected to turn positive in Q1 2026 [4][16] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is recovering, with a projected increase in both domestic and international flights. However, profitability may vary significantly among airports due to differing operational costs [5][21] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector shows resilience in demand, with package volumes expected to grow modestly. The sector is transitioning towards quality competition, leading to improved average order values and profitability [5][23] Logistics - The logistics sector is facing volatility in bulk supply chain profitability, while cross-border logistics is expected to see an upward trend due to strong export demand [6][25] Maritime Transport - Maritime transport profitability is mixed, with container shipping facing pressure while oil transportation sees significant gains due to geopolitical tensions. Dry bulk shipping is also expected to improve profitability [7][27] Ports - Port operations are expected to show high growth rates in cargo throughput, driven by increased imports of various goods. The port sector is highlighted for its stable performance and high dividend yields [8][30] Highways - The highway sector is projected to maintain stable traffic flow, with slight improvements in profitability expected compared to Q1 2025 [9][33] Railways - The railway sector is benefiting from rising oil prices, with both passenger and freight volumes expected to grow. The profitability outlook is positive, particularly for coal transport [10][35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [12] Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics in the transportation sector are continuously improving, with oil price impacts yet to be fully realized. Overall profitability is on an upward trend across various sub-sectors [2][4] Summary by Sub-Sector Aviation - The aviation sector is experiencing significant profitability improvements due to a combination of rising demand during the Spring Festival and a notable decrease in oil prices. The industry is expected to turn profitable in Q1 2026 [4][19] Airports - Domestic airport traffic is recovering, with a projected increase in both domestic and international flights. However, profitability may vary by airport due to differing operational costs [5][25] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector shows resilience in demand, with package volumes expected to grow modestly. The sector is transitioning towards quality competition, leading to improved profitability for leading companies [6][27] Logistics - The logistics sector is facing volatility in bulk supply chain profitability, but cross-border logistics is showing positive trends due to strong export demand [6][30] Maritime Transport - Maritime transport is characterized by a divergence in profitability among different vessel types. While container shipping faces challenges, oil and dry bulk shipping are expected to see profitability improvements [7][31] Ports - Port operations are witnessing high growth rates in cargo throughput across various categories, indicating a positive outlook for profitability in the port sector [8][35] Highways - The highway sector is expected to maintain stable traffic flow, with slight improvements in profitability anticipated compared to Q1 2025 [9][38] Railways - The railway sector is benefiting from rising oil prices, with both passenger and freight volumes expected to grow in Q1 2026 [10][41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry remains resilient, with a top-down "anti-involution" policy driving up express prices, thereby releasing profit elasticity for companies. The long-term outlook for e-commerce express delivery is favorable due to healthy competition opportunities [16] - The oil transportation sector is expected to benefit from sustained crude oil production and tight capacity, with the "Changjin factor" reshaping pricing logic. Geopolitical changes may continue to catalyze sentiment or fundamentals, leading to a significant improvement in the oil transportation market in 2026 [16] - The bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations limiting the operation of aging fleets and increased production of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and West Africa. The market is expected to enter a "new cycle" [16] - The shipping industry is experiencing a green renewal cycle, with demand driven by shipping market recovery and progress in green updates. The new shipbuilding market is expected to improve as constraints ease [16] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - Iran may establish a "safe passage" in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple countries negotiating with Tehran for ship passage. However, security experts warn of potential delays or seizures by Iranian forces [4] - MSC Group has acquired a 50% stake in Changjin Shipping, supporting aggressive expansion of its VLCC fleet, which is estimated to control 150 VLCCs, significantly impacting market concentration and pricing [5] - The SCFI composite freight index decreased by 0.2% to 1707 points, with varying changes in freight rates across different routes [6] - The BDTI index for VLCC freight rates increased by 0.26% to 2821 points, while TCE rates for VLCCs decreased by 5.9% [7] - The BDI index for bulk carriers increased by 3.2% to 2046 points, indicating a rise in bulk shipping rates [8] - China's port cargo throughput increased by 9.52% to 25.617 million tons, with container throughput rising by 9.27% to 6.6 million TEU [10] Express Logistics - In January-February 2026, the express delivery industry volume grew by 7.1% year-on-year, with significant differentiation in market share among major players [9] - Zhongtong Express reported a stable net profit per ticket and committed to a shareholder return rate of no less than 50% [10] - Shentong plans to issue 3 billion yuan in convertible bonds for logistics network upgrades, with a commitment to distribute at least 30% of profits in cash over the next three years [11] - Price adjustments have been made in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces, reflecting rising operational costs [12] Aviation and Airports - China and Thailand have suspended aviation fuel exports, potentially leading to fuel shortages for airlines [14] - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to promote travel service exports and expand inbound consumption [14] Road and Rail - From March 9 to March 15, 2026, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 6.7% and highway truck traffic rising by 14.75% [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping industry [10]. Core Insights - The US-Iran conflict has escalated from a "gray rhino" to a "black swan" event, disrupting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 38% of global crude oil shipping and 65% of VLCC shipping. The limited capacity of alternative pipelines in the Middle East and the lack of large-scale new production capacity globally in the short term will increase volatility in the tanker industry. Although the end of the conflict and the reopening of the Strait cannot be predicted, the chaos will strengthen the global crude oil replenishment cycle. Once passage is restored, shipping will trigger a "spring effect" [2][6]. - It is estimated that an additional 57 VLCCs will be needed for replenishment demand over the next year, while the planned deliveries for VLCCs in the next two years are 26 and 55, respectively. Considering the delivery pace, the actual effective supply will be 54 VLCCs. Short-term pressures are accumulating, and a rebound in momentum is expected, leading to a phase of high prices and increased volumes in oil shipping. The report continues to recommend COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [2][6]. Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has led to increased volatility in the oil shipping sector. Countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil imports, such as Japan and South Korea, are currently focused on inventory digestion. The IEA has proposed the release of the largest-ever strategic oil reserves (400 million barrels). If the conflict duration is manageable, a replenishment cycle will drive demand [6][9]. Price Trends Review - The average VLCC-TCE from Clarksons increased by 23.4% to $216,000 per day. The increase in throughput through Saudi Arabia's east-west pipeline has boosted cargo volumes, and freight rates from the Red Sea to the Far East have rebounded. The SCFI index for foreign trade shipping decreased by 0.2% to 1,707 points, while the PDCI index for domestic trade shipping rose by 1.6% to 1,198 points [6][24]. Stock Performance - In the past week, VLCC freight rates rebounded, leading to significant gains in shipping stocks. The top five A-share shipping companies by weekly stock price increase were China Merchants Energy (7.7%), COSCO Shipping Energy (6.1%), and others. The top five overseas shipping companies included COSCO Shipping Energy H (9.3%) and Ardmore (7.4%) [7][35][38]. Hot News - Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) has been confirmed to acquire a 50% stake in Sinokor Maritime. This deep involvement is expected to strengthen Sinokor's control in the VLCC market, supporting the freight rate center [8][39]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that energy security will be a key theme this year, recommending oil shipping and energy beneficiary stocks. If the Strait's closure is manageable, the replenishment cycle will drive demand. Long-term, the demand normalization and Sinokor's market control logic will continue, leading to a phase of high prices and increased volumes in oil shipping. The report continues to recommend COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy, along with other companies benefiting from the new energy and coal supply chain [9].

Summary of COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) - **Industry**: Crude Tanker Shipping, specifically focusing on Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Focus Shift**: The market has shifted its focus to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz since March, neglecting the structural evolution of the VLCC market which is experiencing higher concentration and pricing power for operators [1][16] 2. **Super-Cycle Outlook**: A bullish outlook on the ongoing super-cycle for VLCCs is presented, with expectations of a 36% upside for A-shares and 51% for H-shares of COSCO Energy due to: - Tight capacity with a growing number of old ships (>20 years) potentially exiting the market [1] - Oil restocking and trade re-routing, particularly Venezuelan oil [1] - Increased pricing power from higher market concentration [1] 3. **Market Share Dynamics**: SinoKor, a South Korea-based operator, controls over 140 VLCCs, representing 19% of the compliant VLCC market share, which has increased the top-10 compliant players' market share to 68% from 47% in 2025 [1] 4. **Earnings Forecast**: The earnings forecast for COSCO Energy has been raised by 81% for 2026 and 59% for 2027, projecting net income of Rmb13 billion and Rmb11 billion respectively, with ROEs of 23% and 19% [2] 5. **VLCC TCE Projections**: The forecast for VLCC Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) is set at US$150,000 per day for 2026, significantly higher than the US$80,000 previously estimated, indicating strong demand and pricing power [2] 6. **Impact of Hormuz Closure**: Concerns regarding a potential 30% shortfall in crude shipping volume due to the Hormuz closure are deemed overblown, with expectations that re-routing and strategic reserves could mitigate the impact to a 15% shortfall [16][17] 7. **Long-term Capacity Dynamics**: The VLCC market is expected to see limited net supply increase, with only 15 new VLCCs expected to be added during 2026-2030, while 195 old VLCCs are anticipated to exit the market [30] Additional Important Insights 1. **Consolidation Trends**: The consolidation in the industry is expected to strengthen pricing power and drive freight rates higher, as older ships exit the market [29] 2. **Financial Metrics**: The company’s financial metrics indicate a strong growth trajectory, with total revenue growth projected at 55.9% for 2026 and EBITDA growth at 110% [10] 3. **Market Capitalization and Valuation**: COSCO Shipping Energy has a market capitalization of HK$91.6 billion and an enterprise value of HK$112.4 billion, with a target price of HK$29.00 for H-shares [5] 4. **Sensitivity Analysis**: An incremental profit of Rmb809 million is expected for every US$10,000 increase in VLCC TCE, highlighting the sensitivity of earnings to freight rate changes [24] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding COSCO Shipping Energy and the VLCC market dynamics, emphasizing the bullish outlook and the factors driving potential growth in the sector.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the transportation sector, including SF Holding, CAOCAO Mobility, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The oil shipping sector is expected to experience significant price elasticity due to the current inventory reduction and potential future replenishment, particularly in the context of the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. - The air travel sector is projected to benefit from high passenger load factors, which may lead to increased ticket prices, supported by a recovering demand and favorable policies [12]. - The logistics sector shows signs of improvement, with major players like ZTO Express reporting significant profit growth and a focus on enhancing service quality amid a competitive landscape [15][18]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 2.65% during the week of March 16-20, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.73 percentage points [19]. - The shipping sector was the only sub-sector to gain, with a 1.21% increase, while public transport, air transport, and logistics saw declines of -6.87%, -6.78%, and -5.76% respectively [19]. Air Travel - The domestic flight ticket booking volume for the Qingming Festival exceeded 1.12 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 23%, indicating a recovery in air travel demand [11]. - The average ticket price for domestic flights has risen by 6.6% compared to the same period last year, reflecting a positive trend in pricing power for airlines [11][12]. Shipping and Ports - The daily shipping rate for a 270,000-ton vessel from Ras Tanura to Ningbo was reported at $346,998, while the rate for a 260,000-ton vessel from Malongo to Ningbo was $127,870 [2][13]. - The report highlights the potential for increased shipping rates due to geopolitical risks and rising fuel prices, with major shipping companies beginning to impose fuel surcharges [2][14]. Logistics - ZTO Express reported a net profit of 2.695 billion yuan for Q4 2025, reflecting a 26.5% quarter-on-quarter increase after adjusting for tax refunds [15]. - The express delivery industry saw a volume increase of 7.1% year-on-year in January-February 2026, with market share continuing to concentrate among leading companies [17][18]. Key Companies to Watch - The report emphasizes the importance of companies such as ZTO Express, SF Holding, and CAOCAO Mobility, which are expected to benefit from ongoing trends in the logistics and transportation sectors [8][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the shipping industry [8] Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to a rise in global oil prices, positioning energy security as a key theme for the year. If the blockade duration is manageable, oil replenishment could drive demand spikes. Long-term, compliance in demand and the continued bullish logic of shipping control are expected to persist, recommending companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [2][7] - The report highlights the benefits for the new energy and coal supply chains, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping Specialized and Haitong Development, which are expected to benefit from the demand for wind power and new energy vehicles [2][7] - The shipbuilding industry is anticipated to maintain its favorable outlook, with China Shipbuilding as a core recommendation [2][7] - The expectation for the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea has cooled, leading to investment opportunities in container shipping, with recommendations for companies like Sea-Lead International and Zhonggu Logistics [2][7] Summary by Sections Price Trends Review - Oil shipping rates have decreased, with the average VLCC-TCE rate dropping by 54.2% to $175,000 per day. The foreign trade container shipping SCFI index increased by 14.9% to 1,710 points, while the domestic container shipping PDCI index rose by 4.0% to 1,179 points. The BDI index saw a weekly increase of 0.9% to 2,028 points, and chemical shipping rates remained stable [5][17][26] Stock Performance - In the A-share market, the top five performing shipping stocks were COSCO Shipping Specialized (up 0.5%), COSCO Shipping Holdings (down 0.1%), Zhonggu Logistics (down 0.5%), Bohai Ferry (down 2.2%), and Jinjiang Shipping (down 2.2%). In the overseas market, the top five were Hapag-Lloyd (up 1.3%), Sea-Lead International (up 0.9%), Wan Hai Lines (up 0.1%), Evergreen Marine (down 1.4%), and Matson (down 2.1%) [6][26][29]