Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Sinopec (600028.SH) [6] Core Views - The refining performance has improved, with a more than 10% increase in non-net profit for Q3 2025 compared to the previous quarter. However, the overall revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 have decreased year-on-year by 10.7% and 32.2%, respectively [1] - The oil and gas exploration and development segment saw a year-on-year decline in profits due to falling oil and gas prices, despite a slight increase in production [2] - The refining segment experienced a significant profit improvement due to increased aviation fuel production and strategic adjustments in product structure [3] - The marketing and distribution segment faced a decline in refined oil sales, but profits remained relatively stable [4] - The chemical segment reported increased operating losses due to low margins and continued release of new domestic capacities [4] - The report suggests that the "de-involution" trend in the petrochemical industry may enhance profitability in refining and chemical operations, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 being 38.006 billion, 41.397 billion, and 46.040 billion yuan, respectively [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Sinopec reported a revenue of 704.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.6%. The net profit was 8.5 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year but up 3.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The non-net profit for Q3 2025 was 9.34 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.8% [1] Exploration and Development - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas equivalent production was 131.67 million barrels, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% but a slight decrease of 0.1% from the previous quarter. Brent crude oil prices averaged $68.19 per barrel, down 13.5% year-on-year [2] Refining - The production of aviation fuel increased significantly, contributing to a substantial profit turnaround in the refining segment, which reported an EBIT of 3.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year improvement [3] Marketing and Distribution - Total refined oil sales in Q3 2025 were 59.26 million tons, down 5.4% year-on-year but up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter. The segment achieved an EBIT of 3.42 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [4] Chemical - The chemical segment's total operating volume was 23.6 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. However, it reported an operating loss of 4.13 billion yuan due to low margins [4] Investment Forecast - The report forecasts a decline in revenue for 2025, with expected figures of 2,480.83 billion yuan, and a net profit of 38.006 billion yuan, with EPS projected at 0.31 yuan per share [5][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sinopec, indicating a positive outlook on the company's long-term investment value in the context of industry competition [7]. Core Insights - Sinopec's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was under pressure due to declining oil and product prices, resulting in a 10.69% year-on-year decrease in revenue to CNY 2,113.44 billion and a 32.23% drop in net profit to CNY 29.98 billion [1][4]. - The average Brent crude oil price for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 70 per barrel, down 15% year-on-year, with a slight recovery in the third quarter [4]. - The exploration and production segment saw a 2.2% increase in oil and gas equivalent production, reaching 394.48 million barrels, while natural gas production rose by 4.9% [4][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Sinopec reported revenue of CNY 704.39 billion, a 10.88% year-on-year decline but a 4.56% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The company's net profit for Q3 2025 was CNY 8.50 billion, a slight decrease of 0.50% year-on-year but a 3.43% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The report forecasts a decline in net profit for 2025, with estimates of CNY 40.41 billion, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [7]. Segment Performance - The exploration and production segment achieved operating income of CNY 355 billion, while refining, marketing, and chemical segments reported mixed results, with refining showing slight improvement [4]. - The refining segment optimized its processing load and adjusted product structure, resulting in a decrease in crude oil processed by 2.2% to 186 million tons [4][5]. - The chemical segment saw a 10% increase in light oil production, with ethylene output rising by 15.4% to 11.59 million tons [5]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that Sinopec, as a leading player in the petrochemical industry, is expected to benefit from the current competitive landscape characterized by limited new capacity and the exit of inefficient players [7]. - The anticipated recovery in the refining industry is expected to provide performance elasticity for Sinopec in the coming years [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company's Q3 2025 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue of 704.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.5 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The exploration segment's profit declined year-on-year due to falling oil and gas prices, despite a 3% increase in oil equivalent production [2] - Refining profits improved year-on-year due to external sanctions affecting supply, with refining processing volume up 3.8% year-on-year [3] - The chemical segment faced significant profit pressure due to the continuous release of new domestic capacity, resulting in a unit profit loss of 0.8 USD per barrel of oil equivalent [4] - The company maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 43.5 billion, 53.6 billion, and 64.1 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [4] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 2,797.85 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -9.00% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 43.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13.54% [5] - The expected dividend yield for A shares in 2025 is 4.6%, while for H shares it is 6.6% [4] - The company's current price is 5.56 yuan, with a target price not specified [6]

Group 1 - The opening ceremony of Sinopec's first gas station in Australia was attended by key officials, including the Consul General Fang Xinwen and representatives from Sinopec and local government [2][4] - Fang Xinwen emphasized the importance of energy cooperation between China and Australia, highlighting the potential for growth in this sector [4] - The Mayor of Frankston, Borham, expressed gratitude for Sinopec's contribution to community development and welcomed the establishment of the gas station [4] Group 2 - The event signifies a positive development in China-Australia relations, with a focus on enhancing cooperation in the energy sector [4] - Sinopec is encouraged to leverage this opportunity to strengthen its brand presence and better serve the local community [4] - The relationship between Frankston and Wuxi, China, is highlighted as a foundation for future exchanges and collaboration [4]

2025 年 10 月 30 日 公司研究 Q3 归母净利润环比小幅改善，静待炼化景气修复 ——中国石化（600028.SH/0386.HK）2025 年三季报点评 A 股：买入（维持） 当前价：5.52 元 H 股：买入（维持） 当前价：4.22 港元 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 1211.78 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 6689.00 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 5.25/6.78 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 1.09% | 要点 事件： 公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业总收入 21134 亿元，同比-10.7%，实现归母净利润 300 亿元，同比-32. ...

Core Insights - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index has shown a positive performance, with a rise of 0.74% as of October 30, 2025, and notable increases in constituent stocks such as Huayu Automotive (4.87%) and Baosteel (1.98%) [1][3] Market Performance - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF (515300) increased by 0.75%, with an intraday turnover of 0.68% and a total transaction value of 32.5842 million yuan [3] - Over the past month, the ETF has averaged daily transactions of 150 million yuan, with a current scale of 4.743 billion yuan [3] - In the last ten trading days, there were net inflows on six days, totaling 49.8513 million yuan [3] Historical Returns - The CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility ETF has seen a net value increase of 60.06% over the past five years, ranking 103 out of 1031 index equity funds, placing it in the top 9.99% [3] - Since its inception, the ETF's highest monthly return was 13.89%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being five months and a maximum increase of 14.56% [3] - The average return during rising months is 3.57%, and the annualized return over the past six months has exceeded the benchmark by 6.46% [3] Institutional Investment Trends - Insurance funds have accelerated their allocation to dividend stocks in the first half of 2025, with an increase of nearly 320 billion yuan in allocations, surpassing the total for the previous year [4] - Despite rising valuations, the opportunity for concentrated investments in dividend stocks is diminishing, with an estimated under-allocation of 800 billion to 1.6 trillion yuan across the industry [4] - It is suggested to focus on companies with resilient balance sheets and balanced growth [4] Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Dividend Low Volatility Index include China Shenhua, Shuanghui Development, Gree Electric Appliances, Sinopec, Huayu Automotive, Daqin Railway, Midea Group, China State Construction, Baosteel, and China Mobile, collectively accounting for 35.84% of the index [4][6]

Macro Insights - The Federal Reserve's October meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with Chairman Powell indicating that December's rate cut remains uncertain, leading to a decrease in market expectations for future cuts [2][3] - The Chinese Yuan has appreciated by 2.8% against the US dollar this year, with a notable 12% increase against the Japanese Yen since July, indicating a shift towards an "independent trend" in the Yuan's valuation [2][3] Fixed Income - In October, the People's Bank of China announced a resumption of bond purchases, leading to a significant rise in government bond futures [5][6] - The US financial sector is seeing a new model of support for national strategy, with JPMorgan's $1.5 trillion initiative focusing on key industries and supply chain resilience [6] Energy and New Energy - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of new energy storage and smart grid infrastructure, benefiting companies in the storage and wind power sectors [10][11] - A significant $80 billion investment in nuclear power by Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management aims to enhance energy infrastructure in the US [11] Real Estate - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines a shift towards high-quality development in real estate, focusing on improving housing quality and supply systems, which may enhance long-term value in the sector [13] Financial Services - The brokerage sector is experiencing a slight decrease in positions, with a focus on high-quality financial strategies amid a recovering market sentiment [9] - The banking sector shows signs of improvement, with a notable increase in credit issuance and a stable asset quality outlook [23] Key Companies - Huafeng Measurement Control reported a 67.21% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by cost reduction and improved testing performance [17] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry's Q3 revenue showed a 6.03% quarter-on-quarter increase, benefiting from a recovery in coal prices [18] - Kweichow Moutai's Q3 revenue growth was lower than expected, but the company is implementing strategies to boost market confidence [19] - Guangdong Investment's Q3 performance reflects a stable business model with strong cash flow, supporting high dividend returns [20] - Yutong Bus reported a 32.27% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, driven by strong export performance [21]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) has shown a strong increase of 1.00%, driven by significant gains in constituent stocks such as Lanstone Heavy Industry (603169) up 9.98%, and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872) up 7.81% [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease in crude oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels last week, exceeding expectations, which contributed to the rise in oil prices [1] - Zhongyou Securities indicated that if there is a future premium on crude oil due to regional situations, it would benefit upstream assets, while improvements in demand and supply could favor midstream refining [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum (601857), China Petroleum & Chemical (600028), and China National Offshore Oil (600938), collectively accounting for 64.68% of the index [2] - The Oil and Gas ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1]

Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasizes the integration of artificial intelligence and capital markets to promote high-quality digital transformation during the 2025 Financial Street Forum [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announces measures to expand cross-border trade pilot regions, supporting compliant businesses in line with national strategic development [2] - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments release an action plan to enhance urban commercial quality, focusing on the development of pedestrian streets and business circles [2] Group 2: Market Mechanisms and Initiatives - The CSRC plans to improve the Beijing Stock Exchange's listing mechanism and optimize disclosure requirements for innovative companies [4] - Beijing issues guidelines to stimulate mergers and acquisitions, aiming to enhance the quality of listed companies and accelerate industrial integration [5] - China Securities Index Co., Ltd. will launch six new indices to provide a broader range of investment options for the market [6] Group 3: Economic Performance - From January to September 2023, state-owned enterprises reported total operating revenue of 6,132.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while total profits decreased by 1.6% to 316.70 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The Ministry of Transport announces an initiative to advance the application of artificial intelligence in the transportation sector, focusing on technology breakthroughs and enhancing digital capabilities [9] - Shanghai's communication management authorities launch a project to develop a millisecond-level computing resource network by 2027 [10] Group 5: Company Performance Highlights - Guizhou Moutai reports a third-quarter net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [7] - Industrial Fulian's AI business drives a 62% year-on-year increase in third-quarter net profit [7] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) sees a 32.2% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first three quarters, totaling 29.98 billion yuan [7]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Developments - The Chinese government is committed to deepening capital market reforms and expanding high-level financial openness to support modernization, welcoming foreign financial institutions and long-term capital investments [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced nine policy measures to facilitate cross-border trade and support trade development [1] - The Central Enterprise Strategic Emerging Industry Development Fund has officially launched, raising 51 billion yuan in its first phase [1] Group 2: Corporate Earnings and Financial Performance - Guizhou Moutai reported Q3 revenue of 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%, and a net profit of 19.224 billion yuan, up 0.48% [4] - Industrial Fulian's net profit for the first three quarters reached 22.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.52% [4] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a net profit of 29.984 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 32.2% [4] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market - In the first three quarters, China added 10.57 million urban jobs, maintaining overall employment stability, with a September urban survey unemployment rate of 5.2%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 4: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to 4016.33, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.95% to 13691.38 [3] - The onshore RMB was quoted at 7.0993, down 3 points, and the offshore RMB at 7.0964, down 22 points [3]