东吴证券近日发布能源化工：2025年7月15日，中华人民共和国应急管理部发布《国务 院安委会办公室部署开展黑加油点"大扫除"专项整治行动》，部署从2025年6月至12月，在 全国范围内开展黑加油点"大扫除"专项整治行动，专项整治行动严厉打击非法成品油生产和 销售行为。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件：2025年7月15日，中华人民共和国应急管理部发布《国务院安委会办公室部署开 展黑加油点"大扫除"专项整治行动》，部署从2025年6月至12月，在全国范围内开展黑加油 点"大扫除"专项整治行动，专项整治行动严厉打击非法成品油生产和销售行为。 加大成品油消费税监管力度，炼油及销售行业集中度有望进一步提高：国家加强成品油 消费税征收执法力度，继续推进成品油消费税改革。合法经营的企业将面临更公平的竞争环 境，而非法经营的企业或将被逐步清除，导致行业集中度提高。 我国半数加油站为民营加油站，销售成品油总量约为全国消费量的25%。 1）从加油站分布来看，2023年我国合计12.3万座加油站，主要分布于山东、河南、河 北、广东等区域。其中，民营加油站数量庞大，约6.4万座（占我国加油站总数的52%）； 其余5.9万座加油站由央企 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant surge on July 21, with over 4,000 stocks rising and a trading volume increase of 133.8 billion yuan, leading to a new high for the Shanghai Composite Index this year [1] - Key sectors such as building materials, coal, and oil saw substantial gains, with Energy ETFs (159930) rising over 1% for three consecutive days, and Oil and Gas Resource ETFs (159309) also increasing over 1% for four consecutive days [1] Group 2: Coal and Oil Sector Performance - Major coal and oil stocks saw significant increases, with companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal rising over 3%, while Meijin Energy and China United Coalbed Methane increased over 2% [3] - The top ten components of the Energy ETF (159930) included major players like China Petroleum and China Shenhua, with respective trading volumes of 757 million yuan and 968 million yuan [4] - The top ten components of the Oil and Gas Resource ETF (159309) also featured significant players, with China Petroleum and China Petrochemical leading in trading volumes [4] Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - On July 18, government officials announced a new round of growth stabilization plans for key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at optimizing supply and eliminating outdated production capacity [5] - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized the need for coal companies to understand market changes and ensure compliance with long-term contracts to maintain market balance [5] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to resonate with the coal sector, potentially leading to valuation increases as the market stabilizes [6] Group 4: Price Trends and Future Outlook - Short-term coal prices are expected to remain bullish due to seasonal demand, with supply constraints from safety regulations and stricter import controls [6] - In the medium to long term, coal prices are projected to gradually return to a "reasonable center," which would stabilize profitability for coal companies and reshape market perceptions of the coal sector [7] - The oil sector may face challenges related to overcapacity, necessitating a focus on controlling operating rates and project approvals [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The government is strengthening the enforcement of refined oil consumption tax collection and continuing to promote the reform of refined oil consumption tax, which is expected to increase the concentration of the refining and sales industries. Legal enterprises will face a fairer competitive environment, while illegal enterprises may be gradually eliminated [4][68][71]. - The reform of refined oil consumption tax will bring more intense market competition, forcing refineries and gas stations to improve service quality and operational efficiency. In the long term, this will contribute to the healthy development of the entire industry, improve resource allocation efficiency, and ultimately benefit consumers [71]. - Relevant investment targets include Sinopec/China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK) and PetroChina/China National Petroleum Corporation (601857.SH/0857.HK) [8][71]. Summary by Directory 1. Refined Oil Consumption Tax Basic Situation 1.1 Summary Points of Refined Oil Consumption Tax - Consumption tax is an important tax in China's current tax system, aiming to regulate product structure, guide consumption direction, and ensure national fiscal revenue. China has been levying consumption tax on gasoline and diesel at the production stage since 1994 [11]. - The 2024 consumption tax reform aims to shift the collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments, which is expected to accelerate the exit of backward refinery capacities and benefit state - owned refineries. However, there are difficulties in implementing this policy, such as affecting the profits of gas stations and increasing the requirements for national tax collection and management [11]. 1.2 Policy Innovations of Refined Oil Consumption Tax (2012 - 2024) - **2012 - 2013**: The State Administration of Taxation issued documents to strictly define the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection to prevent tax evasion by refineries through "name - changing sales". However, due to various reasons, the implementation effect was not obvious [14][17][18]. - **2018**: The State Administration of Taxation issued Document No. 1, which required all refined oil invoices to be issued through the refined oil invoice issuance module in the new VAT invoice management system. This policy forced some backward refinery capacities and illegal blending capacities to be eliminated [20][21][24]. - **2021**: The Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs, and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to levy import - link consumption tax on some refined oil products, expanding the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [33][34]. - **2023**: The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly issued an announcement to adjust the scope of refined oil consumption tax collection [36][37]. - **2024**: The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to shift the refined oil consumption tax collection link to the sales end and gradually transfer it to local governments. However, there are implementation difficulties, such as affecting gas station profits and increasing tax collection and management challenges [38]. 1.3 China's Refining Capacity Situation - In 2024, China's total refining capacity was about 955 million tons, showing a pattern of three major forces: central state - owned enterprises, other state - owned enterprises, and private refineries [39]. - After the implementation of the 2018 consumption tax new policy, the operating rate of Shandong local refineries decreased, and the gasoline price increased. Some high - cost refineries were forced to shut down, while some high - quality refineries turned to formal sales channels [40][41]. - Shandong plans to integrate and transfer the refining capacities of local refineries below 300 - 500 million tons by 2022 - 2025 and build large - scale refining integration projects [55]. 1.4 China's Gas Station Situation - In 2023, there were about 123,000 gas stations in China, mainly distributed in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong and other regions. Among them, private gas stations numbered about 64,000, accounting for 52% of the total [58]. - In 2024, China's total refined oil consumption was 390 million tons, of which private gas stations sold about 100 million tons, accounting for 25% of the total consumption. State - owned oil companies' gas stations have higher single - station refueling volume and profitability [58]. 2. Major Event Updates of China's Strengthened Refined Oil Consumption Tax Reform in 2025 2.1 The Tax Evasion Incident of Liaoning Baolai Refinery in 2022 - Some enterprises in Panjin, Liaoning evaded refined oil consumption tax by changing the names of taxable refined oil products to non - taxable chemical products. The relevant enterprises were investigated and punished, and the relevant personnel were transferred to the judicial authorities [61]. 2.2 Increased Enforcement of Refined Oil Consumption Tax in 2025: Announcement of Multiple Tax Evasion Cases - In February 2025, tax authorities in Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Yunnan announced the investigation and punishment of three gas station tax evasion cases, including hiding sales revenue through "cheating modes" and non - compliant payment methods [62]. 2.3 The Tax Evasion Incident of Bohui Co., Ltd. in 2025 - After the tax policy change in June 2023, Bohui Co., Ltd. was required to pay consumption tax on its main product, heavy aromatics. In 2024, it was required to pay back taxes of nearly 500 million yuan. In February 2025, the company's controlling stake changed [64][65]. 2.4 China's Special Rectification Campaign Against Illegal Gas Stations in 2025 - From June to December 2025, China will carry out a special rectification campaign against illegal gas stations across the country to severely crack down on illegal refined oil production and sales [68]. 3. Investment Suggestions - The competition of private refineries with non - standard tax payment in the early stage will intensify. They need to improve production efficiency and reduce costs to enhance market competitiveness [71]. - Private gas stations will face greater challenges and direct competition with state - owned oil company gas stations [71]. - The competitiveness of state - owned oil companies will be enhanced, and their market share is expected to expand [71].

金十图示：2025年07月21日（周一）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：银行板块全天表现低迷，能源、汽车板块集体 收涨 富时中国A50指数连续 -0.03(-0.53%) +0.04(+0.47%) -0.08(-0.68%) 光大银行 2522.95亿市值 6.05亿成交额 4.27 -0.03(-0.70%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 帆 3723.66亿市值 3526.82亿市值 10414.43亿市值 15.20亿成交额 26.71亿成交额 5.53亿成交额 36.66 57.19 8.42 -0.43(-1.16%) +0.12(+0.21%) +0.03(+0.36%) 酿酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 18126.93亿市值 2199.47亿市值 4757.30亿市值 37.80亿成交额 23.04亿成交额 16.64亿成交额 180.29 1443.00 122.56 +6.00(+0.42%) -1.22(-0.99%) -0.81(-0.45%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2309.49亿市值 2434.80亿市值 3176.67亿市值 1 ...

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [8][29][30] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [9][30] - The current active drilling rig count in the US remains low, impacting short-term crude oil and natural gas production capacity [29][30] Coal Industry - The market price for thermal coal has increased, with the average price at Qinhuangdao port reaching 637 RMB/ton, up 1.46% from the previous week, driven by increased downstream purchasing demand [11][12] - Coal inventory at major ports has decreased by 6.32% to 25.2 million tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12] - The demand for coal is supported by rising electricity consumption due to high summer temperatures, although cement demand is declining [11][12] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing price increases, with the price of Shanxi main coking coal rising by 6.67% to 1,440 RMB/ton [13][14] - Downstream steel mills are maintaining high production levels, leading to a positive outlook for coking coal prices as demand remains strong [13][14] - The overall market sentiment is bullish, with expectations of further price increases due to rising costs and stable demand from steel producers [13][14] Natural Gas - Industrial natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with June output at 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15][16] - The average price of natural gas in the US has risen to $3.51 per million British thermal units, reflecting a 5% increase from the previous week [15][16] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and increased competition for supplies [15][16] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is expected to see a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures driven by high oil prices and supportive government policies [17][18] - The total capital expenditure for major oil companies in 2023 is projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [17][18] - The number of active drilling rigs globally has decreased to 1,576, indicating a cautious approach to new investments in oil and gas exploration [18]

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index showed mixed performance with banks and insurance sectors declining, while energy and automotive sectors mostly advanced [1][6]. Banking Sector - Major banks like China Everbright Bank reported a market capitalization of 252.295 billion with a trading volume of 391 million, experiencing a slight decline of 0.03 (-0.70%) [3]. Insurance Sector - Key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance had market capitalizations of 369.27 billion, 349.31 billion, and 1,037.255 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.066 billion, 1.782 billion, and 0.345 billion. They experienced declines of 0.78 (-2.10%), 0.11 (-0.19%), and 0.04 (-0.48%) [3]. Alcohol Industry - Leading companies in the alcohol sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, had market capitalizations of 1,811.450 billion, 218.056 billion, and 475.070 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.287 billion, 1.577 billion, and 0.913 billion. Kweichow Moutai saw a slight increase of 5.01 (+0.35%), while the others faced declines [3]. Semiconductor Sector - Notable semiconductor firms like North Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Hygon reported market capitalizations of 231.057 billion, 244.680 billion, and 317.063 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.070 billion, 2.435 billion, and 1.138 billion. North Huachuang experienced a decline of 4.99 (-1.53%) [3]. Oil Industry - Major players in the oil sector, including Sinopec, PetroChina, and China Railway, had market capitalizations of 273.495 billion, 715.347 billion, and 1,634.377 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.732 billion, 0.426 billion, and 0.427 billion. Sinopec saw an increase of 0.08 (+1.37%) [3]. Coal Industry - Companies like Shenhua Energy and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 749.639 billion and 189.440 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.536 billion and 0.911 billion. Shenhua Energy reported an increase of 0.33 (+0.88%) [3]. Automotive Sector - BYD, a leading automotive manufacturer, had a market capitalization of 1,827.526 billion with a trading volume of 2.984 billion, experiencing an increase of 3.49 (+1.06%) [3]. Securities Sector - Major securities firms such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan reported market capitalizations of 425.350 billion and 347.129 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 2.668 billion and 1.636 billion. CITIC Securities saw an increase of 0.36 (+1.27%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Companies like Hon Hai Precision Industry and Luxshare Precision reported market capitalizations of 534.617 billion and 276.157 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.553 billion and 2.572 billion. Hon Hai experienced a decline of 0.19 (-0.70%) [4]. Home Appliances - Leading home appliance firms such as Haier Smart Home and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 266.739 billion and 243.580 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 0.713 billion and 0.309 billion. Haier reported a decline of 0.26 (-0.54%) [4]. Pharmaceutical Sector - Major pharmaceutical companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Muyuan Foods had market capitalizations of 255.221 billion and 384.958 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 1.833 billion and 1.230 billion. Heng Rui experienced a decline of 0.76 (-1.29%) [4].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a downturn due to falling oil prices, with expectations for recovery in the mid to downstream sectors in the future [1]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in crude oil prices in Q2 2025, with Brent crude averaging $66.7 per barrel, down 11.0% quarter-on-quarter and 21.5% year-on-year [5][6]. - Key companies in the industry are projected to report lower profits in Q2 2025 due to the impact of declining oil prices and inventory losses [5]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - In Q2 2025, Brent crude oil averaged $66.7 per barrel, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 21.5% [5][6]. - Gasoline and diesel prices were adjusted three times upwards and two times downwards, with total reductions of 155 CNY/ton for gasoline and 150 CNY/ton for diesel [5]. Price Spread Analysis - The report notes that the price spreads for styrene, PX-naphtha, ethylene-naphtha, and crude oil catalytic cracking widened, while spreads for propane-propylene, butyl acrylate, and PTA-PX narrowed in Q2 2025 [5][7]. - The average price spread for ethylene from ethane was $567/ton, narrowing by $43/ton quarter-on-quarter [5][7]. Company Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report the following net profits for Q2 2025: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): 40 billion CNY (YoY -7%, QoQ -15%) - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): 30 billion CNY (YoY -25%, QoQ -18%) - Sinopec: 6 billion CNY (YoY -65%, QoQ -55%) - CNOOC Services: 1.2 billion CNY (YoY +25%, QoQ +35%) - Offshore Oil Engineering: 600 million CNY (YoY -17%, QoQ +11%) [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester recovery, recommending attention to leading companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [5]. - It also highlights potential improvements in refining companies' costs and competitive positioning, recommending companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [5]. - The report indicates that the upstream exploration and development sector remains robust, with recommendations for offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company has effectively implemented the "add, subtract, multiply, and divide" work method to reduce burdens on grassroots employees while enhancing operational efficiency, resulting in significant sales growth in both refined oil and natural gas sectors in the first half of the year. Group 1: Additive Measures - The company organized 16 support teams from party branches to assist frontline staff during peak holiday periods, significantly alleviating employee workload and improving service efficiency [2] - Over 800 instances of support were provided to grassroots employees, leading to increased customer satisfaction [2] Group 2: Subtractive Measures - The company streamlined operational records by eliminating redundant forms and implementing electronic record-keeping, which has allowed employees to focus more on customer service [3][4] - A dynamic management system for record-keeping was established to regularly assess the necessity of records, ensuring long-term effectiveness of the reduction efforts [4] Group 3: Multiplicative Measures - The company utilized big data analysis through the Gaode gas station smart operation platform to enhance marketing strategies, achieving a 108% year-on-year increase in refined oil sales in June [5] - The implementation of flexible pricing mechanisms based on traffic patterns and real-time monitoring has improved both competitiveness and profitability [5] Group 4: Divisive Measures - The company has adopted a grassroots research method to identify and resolve 26 key issues affecting operations, including service efficiency and equipment maintenance [6] - Quick responses to employee concerns, such as providing work uniforms and cooling solutions, have been prioritized to enhance workplace conditions [6] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue optimizing long-term mechanisms to ensure the sustainability of burden reduction and operational efficiency improvements [7]

Core Viewpoint - The event organized by Sinopec Shaanxi Petroleum Company aimed to enhance employee families' understanding of the company's operations and its commitment to environmental protection and green energy initiatives [1][9]. Group 1: Event Overview - The open day event took place on July 19, allowing 15 employee families to explore the smart energy initiatives at the Taiyuan Road refueling station in Xi'an [1]. - Activities included educational sessions on identifying genuine fuel products and environmental knowledge quizzes, engaging children in learning about fuel safety and environmental protection [3]. Group 2: Environmental Initiatives - Sinopec Shaanxi Petroleum has invested 25 million yuan in upgrading oil storage facilities and conducting environmental monitoring at refueling stations [5]. - The company has established 101 solar power projects and created four carbon-neutral pilot refueling stations, generating 550,000 kilowatt-hours of green electricity and reducing carbon emissions by over 14,000 tons [5]. - The initiatives contribute to ecological protection efforts in the Yellow River and Yangtze River basins, as well as pollution prevention in the Qinling Mountains and Fenwei Plain [5]. Group 3: Community Engagement - The event aimed to strengthen the connection between employees' families and the company, fostering a sense of belonging and recognition of the company's efforts in promoting a green and low-carbon lifestyle [9]. - Participants engaged in activities promoting the "Waste-Free City" initiative, signing commitments to adopt sustainable living practices [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices experienced a slight decline due to concerns over increased gasoline inventories in the U.S. and OPEC+ production increases, with Brent and WTI prices at $69.28 and $66.05 per barrel respectively as of July 18, 2025 [2][7] - The oil and petrochemical sector showed a positive performance, with the sector rising by 1.13% compared to the 1.09% increase in the CSI 300 index [8][11] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 162.26% since 2022, while the refining and trading sector has risen by 28.99% [11] Oil Price Review - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, down $1.08 (-1.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $66.05 per barrel, down $2.40 (-3.51%) [23] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $0.55 (+0.85%) to $64.96 per barrel [23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 384, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained at 134 [30] U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was 13.375 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week [43] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 422, down by 2 rigs [43] - The number of hydraulic fracturing fleets in the U.S. was 174, down by 6 fleets [43] U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing was 16.849 million barrels per day, down by 157,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.90%, down 0.8 percentage points [56] U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventory was 825 million barrels, a decrease of 4.159 million barrels (-0.50%) from the previous week [68] - Strategic oil inventory was 403 million barrels, down by 300,000 barrels (-0.07%) [68] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 422 million barrels, down by 3.859 million barrels (-0.91%) [68] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [2]