Core Viewpoint - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant increases in stock prices for major airlines amid rising ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival travel period [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Eastern Airlines (00670) increased by 4.81%, reaching HKD 5.66 [1] - Southern Airlines (600029) (01055) rose by 4.15%, reaching HKD 6.03 [1] - Air China (601111) (00753) saw a rise of 2.79%, reaching HKD 6.99 [1] - Cathay Pacific (00293) increased by 1.48%, reaching HKD 12.37 [1] Group 2: Ticket Booking Data - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 12.46 million, representing an approximate 8% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Outbound flight ticket bookings surpassed 1.37 million, while inbound flight ticket bookings exceeded 1.47 million, both showing around a 5% increase compared to last year's Spring Festival [1] Group 3: Industry Analysis - According to a report by China Merchants Securities, since Q4 2025, the industry has benefited from improved ticket prices year-on-year and strengthened expectations for future profit recovery, leading to a significant overall increase in industry valuations [1] - The sector experienced a slight decline in late January due to a rapid increase in international oil prices, prompting a recommendation to monitor the performance of ticket volume and pricing during the Spring Festival, as well as the impact of supply-demand policies and Middle Eastern developments on oil prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese airlines, including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Air China, and Hainan Airlines, have announced their earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a trend of recovery in the aviation industry, with some airlines expected to return to profitability while others continue to face losses [2][3]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - China Southern Airlines expects to achieve a net profit of 800 million to 1 billion RMB in 2025, recovering from a net loss of 1.696 billion RMB in the previous year, marking an increase of 2.4 billion to 2.6 billion RMB [3]. - Hainan Airlines anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion RMB in 2025, recovering from a net loss of 921 million RMB, representing an increase of 2.721 billion to 3.121 billion RMB [5]. - Air China projects a net loss of approximately 1.3 billion to 1.9 billion RMB in 2025, widening from a loss of 237 million RMB in the previous year [3]. - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of about 1.3 billion to 1.8 billion RMB, a reduction of 57% to 70% compared to the previous year, with an anticipated total profit of 200 million to 300 million RMB [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic airlines' market share in international routes has increased to 70% in 2025, up from 58.9% in 2019, while foreign airlines' share has decreased to 30.5% [6]. - The total transportation turnover for the aviation industry in 2025 is projected to reach 1,640.8 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport volume at 770 million, and cargo volume at 1,017.2 million tons, reflecting growth of 10.5%, 5.5%, and 13.3% respectively [8]. - The average economy class ticket price for the year is expected to be 738 RMB, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a trend of low pricing strategies in the industry [6]. Group 3: Operational Strategies - Airlines are focusing on expanding international routes to enhance aircraft utilization and optimize profit structures, with China Southern Airlines opening over 40 new domestic and international routes in 2025 [7]. - The industry is facing challenges such as supply chain pressures and rising costs for aircraft and materials, prompting airlines to optimize route networks and enhance cost management [6][8]. - The recovery of international flights has reached over 90% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong rebound in the post-pandemic aviation market [8].

Core Insights - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has begun, with airlines increasing capacity and enhancing service levels to meet the growing demand for passenger travel in Guangdong [1][3][4] Group 1: Airline Capacity and Operations - Air China plans to operate 16 routes from Guangzhou with an average of over 50 flights per day, utilizing over 40% wide-body aircraft and adding 10 flights to popular destinations [1] - Eastern Airlines has increased seat capacity by over 100,000 compared to last year, representing an 8.43% increase, and is expected to transport 1.28 million passengers, an 8.21% year-on-year growth [3] - Southern Airlines plans to execute over 126,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, including approximately 13,000 additional flights across more than 260 routes [4] Group 2: Service Enhancements - Southern Airlines has introduced a "one-minute boarding" service at all domestic flights from Guangzhou, allowing passengers without checked luggage to complete check-in and security before the boarding gate closes [4] - Eastern Airlines has increased flight frequencies to various destinations and added new direct flights, responding to the surge in travel demand, particularly for family visits and tourism [3] - Airlines are implementing personalized services for different passenger groups, including dedicated counters and priority check-in for special needs travelers, enhancing overall passenger experience [5][7]

2月3日消息，据中国南方航空微博：2月2日，2026年春运正式启动，将持续至3月13日，共计40天。今 年春运，南航旗下@重庆航空 计划执行航班5600余班次，日均140班次，在粤港澳大湾区、长三角地区 至西南地区等方向新开、加密及恢复10余条航线，满足避寒游、返乡探亲和公商务旅客等多种出行需 求。 责任编辑：李思阳 2月3日消息，据中国南方航空微博：2月2日，2026年春运正式启动，将持续至3月13日，共计40天。今 年春运，南航旗下@重庆航空 计划执行航班5600余班次，日均140班次，在粤港澳大湾区、长三角地区 至西南地区等方向新开、加密及恢复10余条航线，满足避寒游、返乡探亲和公商务旅客等多种出行需 求。 责任编辑：李思阳 ...

Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The overall container shipping rates have decreased, with the SCFI composite index dropping by 9.7% to 1317 points, and specific routes such as Shanghai-Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean seeing declines of 11.1% and 12.0% respectively [1][8] - The refined oil tanker rates have increased, with the BCTI index rising by 4.6% to 890 points, while the MR rates for the Pacific and Atlantic regions showed mixed results [1][9] - The dry bulk market has shown strength during the traditional off-season, with the BDI index increasing by 12.0% to 1949 points, driven by a mismatch in supply and demand [1][8] Group 2: Express Logistics - YTO Express held a conference emphasizing the importance of building a resilient supply chain and adhering to national postal policies [2] - The State Post Bureau has prioritized the governance of illegal charges in rural express delivery as part of its 2026 initiatives [3] - Macro trends indicate a resilient demand in the e-commerce express delivery sector, with companies like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control [13] Group 3: Aviation Sector - The civil aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with major airlines like China Southern and Hainan Airlines expected to turn profitable in 2025, while others like China Eastern and Air China are projected to reduce losses significantly [4] - The State Council has issued a plan to enhance service consumption, which includes transportation services, aiming to stimulate economic growth [4] - Spring Festival travel demand is strong, with domestic flight bookings exceeding 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year [5][6] Group 4: Shipping and Port Operations - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with the U.S. increasing military presence, which could impact oil shipping routes [7] - The Atlantic freight market is experiencing a surge, with dry bulk rates showing unexpected strength due to concentrated cargo volumes and tight capacity [8] - China's port cargo throughput has decreased, with a reported decline of 1.70% in total cargo and a 4.35% drop in container throughput [10] Group 5: Road and Rail Transport - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight volumes showing a slight decline of 3.35% [11] - Shenzhen International reported a 3.3% increase in toll revenue for December 2025, indicating stable growth in road transport [12] - Zhongyuan Express plans to recognize credit impairment and asset impairment provisions totaling 950 million, forecasting a 30% decline in annual net profit [12]

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season is expected to see a significant increase in passenger demand and flight operations, driven by factors such as longer holiday periods and the recovery of the inbound and outbound tourism market [1][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts that during the Spring Festival period, the national civil aviation passenger transport volume may reach 95 million, with a total of 780,000 flights expected, representing a 5% year-on-year increase in daily average flights [1]. - The travel demand is anticipated to rise due to the combination of holiday length and the recovery of tourism, leading to improved passenger load factors and ticket prices in the civil aviation industry [1][6]. Group 2: Airline Operations - China International Airlines plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, a 10.1% increase from 2025, with 9 C919 aircraft deployed on various routes [2]. - China Eastern Airlines intends to utilize 822 aircraft, including 14 C919 jets, executing 125,000 flights, with a focus on increasing capacity in domestic and international markets [3]. - China Southern Airlines aims to operate over 126,000 flights, with significant increases in domestic and international routes, including the deployment of C919 aircraft [3]. Group 3: Market Demand - The ticket booking data indicates a peak in demand, with over 5.21 million domestic tickets and 1.61 million international tickets booked, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 22% and 9%, respectively [5]. - The trend of combining family visits with tourism is emerging, leading to sustained demand for travel during the Spring Festival [5]. Group 4: Long-term Industry Outlook - The civil aviation industry is expected to achieve a balanced supply-demand relationship, with a potential increase in profitability as the market stabilizes [6]. - Factors such as the recovery of business travel, the aging population's consumption potential, and the steady recovery of the inbound tourism market are likely to create a supply-demand gap, which could enhance airline revenue levels [6].

Core Insights - Hangzhou Airport has upgraded its "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service, expanding it from the existing China Southern Airlines "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route to include the "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route, enhancing travel convenience for passengers [1] Group 1: Service Expansion - The "Instant Hangzhou Travel" service allows passengers without checked luggage to arrive at the boarding gate up to 15 minutes before flight departure, breaking traditional check-in deadlines [1] - Since its launch on the "Hangzhou-Guangzhou" route, the service has assisted over 100,000 passengers, enabling more than 1,000 late arrivals to board their flights successfully [1] Group 2: Target Audience and Benefits - The "Hangzhou-Shenzhen" route serves as a crucial air passage connecting Zhejiang to the Greater Bay Area, catering to a concentrated flow of business and travel passengers [1] - The service includes dedicated check-in counters, clear directional signage, expedited security checks, and priority shuttle services, significantly reducing travel time and enhancing passenger experience [1] Group 3: Future Developments - Hangzhou Airport plans to deepen collaboration with airlines and continue innovating service products to meet diverse travel needs, aiming to improve travel convenience and passenger satisfaction [1]

作者 | 第一财经 陈姗姗 2026.02. 02 本文字数：2338，阅读时长大约4分钟 2月2日，为期40天的2026年春运正式拉开帷幕。由于返乡探亲、学生放假、旅游度假多重客流叠加，使得春运首日就呈现出需求旺盛、出行目的地多 元等特征。 民航局数据显示，今天全民航预计保障航班19080班，运输旅客219万人次。据航旅纵横大数据，春运第一天的国内航线机票预订量超186万张，比去 年春运同期增长约5%；出入境航线机票预订量超25万张，比去年春运同期增长约7%。 记者采访的多家航司和旅游平台均预计，在史上最长春节、亲子游需求火热、外国游客"反向春运"体验中国年等多重因素叠加下，今年春节有望刷 新"最热春节"纪录，民航旅客量也有望创历史新高。 国内部分航线已售罄 在上海虹桥国际机场记者看到，早晨7点多开始，2026年春运的首个进出港航班高峰就已到来，出发大厅区域旅客往来密集。 东航地服部虹桥旅客服务中心副总经理熊杰对记者介绍，连日来东航日均服务的进出港旅客数量持续增长，特别是随着上海市中小学放假，携带孩子出 行的家庭旅客和无陪伴儿童数量明显增多。今天春运首日，东航的旅客运输量将突破42万人次。 东航营销部网络收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Spring Festival travel season has commenced, with significant increases in flight operations and passenger traffic, driven by a combination of returning home, family visits, student travel, and tourism demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Flight Operations and Passenger Traffic - The civil aviation sector is expected to operate 19,080 flights and transport 2.19 million passengers on the first day of the Spring Festival travel season [1][2]. - Beijing's two airports plan to handle a total of 88,800 flight movements during the Spring Festival, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.67% [2]. - Major airports such as Guangzhou Baiyun, Shanghai Pudong, and Beijing Capital are experiencing the highest traffic, with specific routes showing strong demand [2]. Group 2: Capacity Expansion and Route Focus - Airlines are increasing capacity on domestic and international routes, focusing on winter tourism and return home routes [3][4]. - Air China plans to operate over 70,000 passenger flights during the Spring Festival, with a 15% increase in capacity for routes to Northeast China [3]. - China Southern Airlines is enhancing its services on popular routes, including daily flights from Beijing to Altay [3]. Group 3: Service Enhancements - Airlines are introducing various services to improve passenger experience, such as online ticket standby and specialized baggage handling for ski equipment [5][6]. - Eastern Airlines has launched an online ticket standby service that automates the process of monitoring flight availability and issuing tickets [6]. - Hainan Airlines is promoting seamless check-in and baggage transfer services across multiple airports, enhancing convenience for travelers [6]. Group 4: Airport and Transportation Coordination - Airports are optimizing transportation services, including new bus routes to major railway hubs and enhanced ride-hailing services [7]. - Daxing Airport has implemented measures to ensure smooth operations during adverse weather conditions, coordinating closely with relevant authorities [7].

Performance Highlights - New Yi Sheng (300502.SZ) expects net profit between 9.4 billion and 9.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86% due to rising demand for high-speed optical modules driven by global computing power investments[4] - Han's Chip (688256.SH) anticipates net profit between 1.85 billion and 2.15 billion CNY, turning from a loss of 450 million CNY last year, benefiting from the growing demand for AI computing power[5] - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) projects net profit between 9.8 billion and 11.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, driven by strong customer investment in computing infrastructure[6] - Runze Technology (300442.SZ) expects net profit between 5 billion and 5.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 179.28% to 196.03%, largely due to non-recurring gains from public REITs issuance[10] Underperformance Highlights - Great Wall Motors (601633.SH) forecasts net profit of 9.912 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 21.71% due to increased marketing expenses and competitive pressures[36] - GAC Group (601238.SH) expects a net loss between 8 billion and 9 billion CNY, turning from a profit of 824 million CNY last year, impacted by fierce competition and increased asset impairment provisions[39] - Xiexin Integrated (002506.SZ) anticipates a net loss between 890 million and 1.29 billion CNY, shifting from a profit of 68 million CNY last year due to structural supply-demand issues in the photovoltaic industry[41] - Baile Tianheng (688506.SH) projects a net loss of around 1.1 billion CNY, down from a profit of 3.708 billion CNY last year, primarily due to increased R&D expenses[42] Industry Trends - Technology-driven sectors like AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are leading growth, with companies like New Yi Sheng and Han's Chip benefiting from strong demand and technological advancements[69] - Cost control is becoming a critical competitive advantage, particularly in the energy and manufacturing sectors, as seen with companies like Datang Power (601991.SH) benefiting from lower coal prices[70] - Traditional cyclical industries such as real estate and agriculture are facing significant downward pressure, with companies like Vanke (000002.SZ) and Tianbang Foods (002124.SZ) experiencing substantial losses due to market adjustments[72]