Macro Strategy - The economic growth target of 5% for the year was successfully achieved, with Q4 GDP growth at 4.5% and nominal GDP growth at 3.8%, indicating a narrowing decline in the GDP deflator index from -1.1% to -0.7% [1][16] - Economic growth was primarily driven by exports and services, with service sector GDP growth at 5.4% and industrial GDP growth at 4.5%. Exports increased by 6.1%, while fixed asset investment decreased by 3.8% [1][16] - Q4 price recovery was noted, although still weak, with service retail growth at 5.5% and total retail sales growth at 3.7% [1][16] Industry Insights - The aerospace sector is highlighted as a long-term strategic focus under the 15th Five-Year Plan, with continued attention on semiconductor equipment, particularly in advanced processes and domestic replacements [5] - The report recommends focusing on semiconductor equipment ETFs as key investment targets due to favorable policies and performance expectations [5] - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to maintain its growth trajectory, supported by strategic planning and market demand [22] Company Recommendations - Qianli Technology (601777) is projected to achieve revenues of 8.9 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a "buy" rating based on successful AI transformation and expected growth in smart driving business [14] - IFBH (06603.HK) is expected to see revenues of 188 million, 257 million, and 331 million USD from 2025 to 2027, with a "buy" rating due to improving fundamentals and channel strategies [15] - Hangcha Group (603298) maintains a profit forecast of 2.2 billion, 2.4 billion, and 2.7 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027, with a "hold" rating reflecting stable performance and market position [15]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen active financing since the beginning of the year, with equity financing reaching HKD 39.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of 316.27% [1] - Chinese securities firms are increasingly taking a leading role in the Hong Kong market, with six out of the top ten equity underwriting positions held by Chinese institutions, accounting for a total market share of 56.15% [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 27.77% in 2025, and the primary market equity financing reached HKD 612.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 248.8% [1] - The active investment and financing environment is attributed to the deep involvement of intermediary institutions, providing valuable development opportunities for investment banks [1] Group 2: Underwriting and Advisory Services - In IPO sponsorship, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) led with a sponsorship scale of HKD 51.65 billion, followed by CITIC Securities (Hong Kong) at HKD 46.03 billion [2] - CICC also demonstrated a strong advantage in refinancing underwriting, with a scale of HKD 24.97 billion and 13 transactions [2] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Chinese securities firms are enhancing their presence in Hong Kong to capture growth opportunities, with several firms increasing capital for their subsidiaries and providing guarantees for business development [4] - For instance, Guotai Junan Securities announced plans to secure a bank loan of up to HKD 35 million to support its Hong Kong subsidiary [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is becoming a crucial platform for Chinese securities firms to expand internationally, with expectations of increased opportunities as international investors seek quality Chinese assets [3] - The core opportunity for Chinese securities firms lies in leveraging their client networks and understanding of Chinese enterprises to serve "A+H" listed companies and support the internationalization of domestic industry chains [5]

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of brokerages has released their performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a significant increase in profits, particularly for Guolian Minsheng Securities, which expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced a substantial profit increase due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in securities investment, brokerage, and wealth management [3]. - Citic Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 28.75% and 38.46%, respectively [3]. - Southwest Securities projected a net profit of 1.028 to 1.098 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47% to 57% [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - Despite the positive performance forecasts, brokerage stock prices have generally declined since the beginning of the year, with Citic Securities down 2.79% and Guolian Minsheng Securities down 2.85% [5]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector, as indicated by the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.78% since January [5]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Performance - The growth in brokerage performance is primarily driven by market recovery and increased trading volumes, but it is also characterized as a cyclical recovery rather than a structural upgrade [4]. - Analysts suggest that the divergence between performance and stock prices is due to several factors, including profit-taking after strong previous gains, a shift in investment focus towards high-dividend, low-volatility assets, and a market expectation of slower profit growth in 2026 [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term stock price pressures, the brokerage sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, supported by a favorable policy environment and ongoing business recovery [7]. - Key indicators to monitor for assessing the sustainability of profits and valuation recovery include trading volumes, margin balances, net subscriptions in asset management, and the issuance rates of subordinate bonds by brokerages [8].

来源：《中国报道》 中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强1月19日下午主持召开专家、企业家和教科文卫体等领域代表座 谈会，听取对《政府工作报告》和《"十五五"规划纲要（草案）》两个征求意见稿的意见建议。 座谈会上，明明、贺佳、闫俊杰、张智刚、龚旗煌、余晓晖、王拥军、周莉亚、石宇奇等先后发言。大 家认为，去年面对复杂严峻的外部形势，我们国家在稳增长、调结构、惠民生等方面推出很多务实举 措，发展中的积极因素不断积累，取得的成绩实属不易。 上述与会发言的9人中，明明是中信证券首席经济学家；贺佳是南开大学金融学院副院长、金融经济系 系主任、教授；闫俊杰是Minimax创始人；张智刚是国家电网有限公司董事长、党组书记；龚旗煌是北 京大学党委副书记、校长；余晓晖是中国信息通信研究院院长、党委副书记；王拥军是首都医科大学附 属北京天坛医院院长、神经病学专家；周莉亚是舞蹈编导、舞者；石宇奇是羽毛球运动员。 公开信息显示，明明，中信证券首席经济学家、中信证券研究部FICC首席分析师。 贺佳，南开大学金融学院副院长、金融经济系系主任、教授。研究领域包括房地产金融、家庭金融和消 费金融。 闫俊杰，Minimax创始人、CEO、董事会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first batch of brokerages has released their performance forecasts for 2025, indicating a significant increase in profits, particularly for Guolian Minsheng Securities, which expects a net profit of 2.008 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 406% [1][4]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guolian Minsheng Securities announced a substantial profit increase due to the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and growth in securities investment, brokerage, and wealth management [4]. - CITIC Securities reported a revenue of 74.83 billion yuan and a net profit of 30.051 billion yuan for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 28.75% and 38.46%, respectively [4]. - Southwest Securities projected a net profit between 1.028 billion yuan and 1.098 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 47% to 57% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Market Performance and Stock Price Trends - Despite positive earnings forecasts, brokerage stock prices have generally declined since the beginning of the year, with CITIC Securities down 2.79% and Guolian Minsheng Securities down 2.85% [7]. - The overall performance of the brokerage sector, as indicated by the CSI All Share Securities Index, has decreased by 0.78% since January [7]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Price Divergence - The divergence between earnings and stock prices is attributed to four main factors: profit-taking after prior gains, a shift in investment focus towards high-dividend, low-volatility assets, lowered expectations for 2026 earnings growth, and increased margin requirements leading to a withdrawal of leveraged funds [8]. - Analysts suggest that the current market environment remains favorable for long-term investment in brokerages, with a focus on the recovery of various business lines and supportive policies [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The brokerage industry is expected to experience an "L-shaped" recovery in 2026, with growth rates likely to slow but absolute profit levels remaining high [10]. - Key indicators to monitor for assessing profitability sustainability and valuation recovery include trading volume, asset management net subscriptions, and the issuance rates of brokerage subordinated bonds [10].

随着即将步入2026年1月下旬，首批券商2025年度业绩预告及快报已陆续出炉。1月18日，国联民生证券发布业绩预 增公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，同比增长406%左右。除国联民生证券外，截至目前，还有中信证 券、西南证券等4家券商通过业绩快报、业绩预告等形式公布2025年经营情况，受证券投资等业务增长因素影响，券 商行业业绩向好迹象逐步显现。 但业绩向好的同时，券商开年以来的股价却表现不佳，引发市场广泛关注。在业内人士看来，业绩与股价的背离主 要受四方面因素影响。展望2026年，券商业绩大概率呈"增速回落但绝对额仍处高位"的L型修复。能否超预期，取决 于多重因素，投资者可重点跟踪"资管净申购"等四项高频指标，以判断盈利持续性与估值修复空间。 业绩普遍预喜 1月18日，国联民生证券发布业绩预增公告，预计2025年实现归母净利润20.08亿元，与上年同期相比增加16.11亿 元，同比增长406%左右，国联民生证券在公告中表示，业绩大幅增长一方面源于报告期内完成对民生证券的收购并 将其纳入合并报表范围，另一方面受证券投资、经纪及财富管理等业务的收入增长带动。 从已披露情况看，首批公布2025年经 ...

不过，由于采用长期股权投资权益法核算，这部分收益大多仍停留在账面上。通过此次减持，越秀资本 终于可以将纸面上的"富贵"落袋为安。 事实上，越秀资本近年来极为重视投资收益。2025年以来，该公司相继增持北京控股H股、新天绿色能 源H股，并向这两家公司派驻董事，因而也将采用权益法核算相应的投资收益。 由于北京控股及新天绿色能源的市净率较低，越秀资本财务部门预计，根据投资成本与可辨认净资产公 允价值的差额，可分别确认一次性收益约20.22亿元和2.98亿元。 依靠中信证券实现业绩"翻身"的越秀资本，正选择将收益"落袋为安"。 1月16日晚，越秀资本发布公告称，拟通过二级市场减持不超过中信证券总股本1.00%的股份，授权期 限至2026年12月31日。按当前股价计算，这部分股权市值约为41.36亿元。 越秀资本在中信证券上的投资获益显著。数据显示，2020年至2025年上半年，中信证券带来的投资收益 分别为7.47亿元、16.07亿元、16.39亿元、16.31亿元、18.54亿元、11.56亿元，合计约为86.34亿元。 在会计处理上，越秀资本将中信证券作为长期股权投资并按权益法核算，其投资收益对应中信证券净利 润 ...

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 1月19日，锡南科技发布公告称，公司于近日收到保荐机构中信证券股份有限公司（简 称"中信证券"）《关于更换持续督导保荐代表人的函》，中信证券原指派宁文科先生、章巍巍先生担任 公司首次公开发行股票持续督导的保荐代表人。现因章巍巍先生工作变动原因，中信证券决定由保荐代 表人陈祉逾先生接替章巍巍先生担任公司首次公开发行股票持续督导的保荐代表人。 ...

香港联交所最新资料显示，1月16日，中信证券资产管理有限公司增持中广核电力(01816)1279.2万股， 每股作价3.0296港元，总金额约为3875.46万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为22.37亿股，最新持股比例 为20.04%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，1月16日，中信证券资产管理有限公司增持中广核电力 (01816)1279.2万股，每股作价3.0296港元，总金额约为3875.46万港元。增持后最新持股数目约为22.37 亿股，最新持股比例为20.04%。 ...