中信证券研报称，特朗普表示希望哈塞特留任美国国家经济委员会（NEC）主席。此后，市场认为沃什 当选美联储新主席概率最大，但我们认为在安排"最听话"的哈塞特留任白宫后，选择"最合适"的沃勒或 是更好的选择，我们认为沃勒仍有胜出机会。美国最高法院于1月21日针对Trump VS Cook的口头辩论 结果是影响美联储独立性的关键事件，市场仍在等待这一不确定性的落地。若特朗普的申请被驳回，我 们预计市场将庆祝美联储独立性得到保护，利多美元、利空 黄金、美债曲线平坦化。美国司法部对鲍 威尔的调查遇到的政治阻力超出白宫预期，白宫正试图弱化该调查，我们预计该事件后续对市场不会造 成明显影响。在特朗普选择"非哈塞特"后，我们认为鲍威尔将遵循传统，在主席交接后也一并辞去理事 职务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese tumor gene testing industry is expected to enter a second turning point due to new regulatory policies from the National Medical Products Administration, National Healthcare Security Administration, and National Health Commission, which will promote healthy industry development from 2026 to 2030, marking a golden development period for the sector [1][2]. Industry Overview - In 2022, China reported 4.82 million new cancer cases and 2.57 million cancer deaths, the highest globally. Tumor gene testing is primarily used for early screening, companion diagnosis, and prognosis monitoring [2][11]. - The upcoming policies will standardize the industry across multiple dimensions, including registration, pricing, insurance, and clinical application, leading to a new round of industry consolidation where smaller companies lacking qualifications, technology, and funding will be eliminated [2][11]. Comparison with Other Markets - The current stage of China's tumor gene testing industry is comparable to the mid-development phase of the U.S. market, particularly between 2010 and 2018. The expectation is for accelerated registration approvals and increased insurance coverage for next-generation sequencing (NGS) products in China [3][12]. - The U.S. market for tumor companion diagnostics is projected to reach $4 billion by 2030, with early screening and recurrence monitoring markets expected to reach $5.8 billion and $4.8 billion, respectively, totaling $14.6 billion. In contrast, China's market for companion diagnostics is expected to reach 5.7 billion yuan, early screening 3.3 billion yuan, and recurrence monitoring 3.6 billion yuan, totaling 12.6 billion yuan by 2030 [4][13]. Domestic and International Landscape - The industry is seeing the emergence of leading companies in specific segments, leading to a more stable market structure [5][14]. - Domestic companies are actively competing and improving their capabilities, with a complete industrial chain in place [6][15]. Investment Strategy - The complete industrial chain of China's tumor gene testing sector presents significant investment opportunities. The current recommendations include focusing on "gene sequencing providers" and "leading companies in tumor companion diagnostics" [8][17].

Group 1 - The real estate market supply and demand have shown improvement, with sufficient adjustments made, indicating a potential stabilization by 2026, marking a critical year for real estate companies to repair their balance sheets [1] - In a low-interest-rate environment, long-term capital continues to allocate towards commercial real estate, suggesting rapid growth in the commercial management industry [1] - Leading companies in the construction and building materials sector have enhanced their market share and optimized sales channels through five years of adjustments, demonstrating the ability to navigate through cycles, with performance inflection points expected for some companies in 2026 [1] Group 2 - In the public utilities and environmental protection sector, water and electricity companies are preferred for their strong anti-cyclical capabilities and attractive dividend yields [1] - Gas companies are expected to gradually recover their performance as gas prices decline and demand rebounds [1] - Waste-to-energy companies are anticipated to successfully expand overseas, breaking through growth constraints [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities forecasts a moderate recovery of China's macro economy by 2026, with an expected annual economic growth rate of 4.9% [1] Economic Outlook - The economic growth is anticipated to be characterized by structural differentiation, with resilient exports and a gradual recovery in investments, while commodity consumption faces short-term pressure [1] Asset Class Recommendations - The asset environment in 2026 is expected to feature marginal liquidity easing alongside moderate economic recovery, leading to a recommendation hierarchy of commodities > stocks > bonds [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moganshan Home has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities acting as the sole sponsor, aiming to leverage its established brand and market position in the green home furnishings sector [1] Company Overview - The company has developed "Moganshan" into a nationally recognized brand in China, starting from the artificial board business and expanding into a diversified product system that meets core green home needs, positioning itself as a one-stop comprehensive service provider for green home furnishings [1] - Moganshan Home actively participates in national-level R&D projects since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and has received multiple national honors, including being recognized as a National Intellectual Property Demonstration Enterprise and a National Green Factory [1] - The company has invested in R&D to reduce formaldehyde emissions, with all products upgraded to HENF level standards and has contributed to the drafting of over 75 national and industry standards, including GB 18580-2025 [1] Market Position and Expansion - As of September 30, 2025, the company has established a broad sales and distribution network with 875 dealers, covering all provinces in China and 45 overseas countries and regions, and is actively implementing a comprehensive overseas expansion plan [1] - The market size for green artificial boards in China is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7%, increasing from RMB 310.6 billion in 2024 to RMB 409.0 billion by 2029 [1] - The green custom home market is projected to expand at a CAGR of 9.4%, rising from RMB 322.0 billion in 2024 to RMB 504.1 billion by 2029 [1]

Group 1 - The market is expected to experience a shift from a one-sided trend driven by narratives and capital to a more performance-focused environment as annual report forecasts approach [2][4] - The adjustment of financing margin ratios is seen as a signal to guide rational investment and maintain market stability, with a focus on sectors like traditional manufacturing and resource pricing [2][5] - The recent regulatory measures aim to prevent excessive speculation and market manipulation, leading to a more rational return of market sentiment [3][4] Group 2 - The focus is shifting towards sectors with strong demand support and industrial catalysts, particularly in low-position technology areas such as domestic computing power and new energy [3][4] - The upcoming earnings disclosures are expected to heighten the competitive sentiment around performance, with attention on sectors that may exceed expectations [4][9] - The market is likely to transition into a consolidation phase after reaching previous highs, with a recommendation for investors to adopt a stable allocation strategy [5][7] Group 3 - The "spring market" is facing short-term pressures due to various factors, including complex overseas macro environments and domestic regulatory intentions [6][8] - Despite recent market weaknesses, there is potential for continued upward movement in the AI application sector, driven by strong fundamentals [6][11] - The overall market valuation remains reasonable, supported by macro policies and a gradual recovery in corporate earnings [9][10]

富友支付向港交所主板递交上市申请，联席保荐人为中信证券和申万宏源香港。 公司提供多渠道支付及数字化商业解决方案，涵盖商业支付（线上线下（300959）收单、扫码收单）、 金融支付（信用卡还款、基金支付）及跨境数字支付服务（B2C、B2B）。拥有中国境内完善的多种支 付牌照组合，以及香港和美国的支付牌照，是中国提供多渠道数字支付及数字化商业解决方案的试点供 货商之一，也是早期获准开展跨境外汇支付服务的公司之一。截至2025年10月31日，累计处理TPV人民 币16.34万亿元，处理逾679亿笔支付交易，累计服务客户620万名。 按2024年收单服务交易笔数计，公司在中国独立综合数字支付服务提供商中排名第一。 按2024年TPV计，公司在中国综合数字支付服务提供商中排名第八位，市场份额0.8%。按2024年TPV 计，作为独立综合数字支付服务供应商，公司位列中国第四，市场份额4.5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hanmu Huatian has submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities as the sponsor, aiming to enhance its market presence and expand its operations in the skin and personal care industry [1]. Group 1: Company Overview - Hanmu Huatian is a leading Chinese brand in skin and personal care, covering body care, hair care, and facial care [1]. - According to Frost & Sullivan data, Hanmu Huatian is the top domestic brand in body lotion, body scrub, and facial cleansing mousse based on retail sales in 2024 [1]. - The company ranks among the top ten in the overall Chinese body care market and has the highest growth rate among the top ten brands from 2022 to 2024 [1]. Group 2: Product Development and R&D - The company focuses on core star products, such as body scrubs and body lotions, while gradually expanding its product matrix to include all categories of body, hair, and facial care [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, Hanmu Huatian has 509 main SKUs and emphasizes a consumer-centric integrated product development process [1]. - The company has been recognized as a national high-tech enterprise and a specialized and innovative enterprise in Shandong Province, with a comprehensive R&D system covering raw material development, basic research, technology transfer, product implementation, and efficacy verification [1]. Group 3: Sales Network - Hanmu Huatian has successfully transformed its sales network from a single online channel to a fully integrated online and offline sales network [1]. - Online sales revenue has consistently accounted for 75% to 85% during the historical record period, while the offline channel has accelerated its layout since 2021, covering all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China [1]. Group 4: Use of Proceeds from IPO - The company plans to use the net proceeds from the IPO primarily for channel development, product marketing, brand building, enhancing R&D capabilities, establishing a global diversified talent pool, strengthening digital and intelligent infrastructure, and for working capital and general corporate purposes [2].

Economic Information - Several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Transsion, have lowered their annual shipment forecasts, with Xiaomi and OPPO reducing by over 20%, vivo by nearly 15%, and Transsion to below 70 million units [2] - Silver prices have surged over 50% in one month and over 150% in six months, impacting the photovoltaic industry, which consumes a significant amount of silver. The cost of raw materials for solar cells has increased by nearly 20% due to rising silver prices [2] - The company Xibei is expected to incur cumulative losses exceeding 600 million yuan from September 2025 to March 2026, leading to the closure of 102 stores, accounting for 30% of its total outlets [2] Company Alerts - Shenghong Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 260%-295% year-on-year for 2025, although Q4 performance fell short of expectations [4] - Cambridge Technology expects a net profit increase of 51%-67% year-on-year for 2025, with Q4 results also below expectations [4] - Multiple companies, including Weimait and Youyan Silicon, have announced plans to reduce their shareholdings by up to 4.98% and 3% respectively [4][11] Overseas Alerts - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively declined last Friday, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index dropping by 1.15%. Notable declines were seen in Chinese stocks such as Alibaba and JD.com [5] - The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on U.S. goods worth 93 billion euros in response to U.S. tariffs on eight European countries, which could take effect on February 6 if no agreement is reached [5]

Group 1: Trade and Economic Cooperation - The total import and export value between China and Central Asia has surpassed $100 billion for the first time, reaching $106.3 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12%, an increase of 6 percentage points from the previous year [1] - China has become the largest trading partner for Central Asian countries, with the region's share in China's foreign trade increasing [1] Group 2: Service Consumption and Policy Support - The Chinese government is accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, with multiple departments issuing supportive policies in areas such as the silver economy, green consumption, and cultural and sports consumption [2] - Experts believe that the upgrade of resident consumption and advancements in digital technology can expand growth opportunities in service consumption [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - Asset management institutions are focusing on sectors like artificial intelligence and cyclical industries for investment strategies in 2026, anticipating a favorable overall market environment and structural characteristics [3] - Insurance companies are planning to increase their equity asset allocation in 2026, driven by favorable policies and the potential for improved corporate earnings [5] Group 4: ETF Market Developments - The ETF market has seen significant milestones, with the first fund management company surpassing $100 billion in ETF management scale and the total scale of cross-border ETFs also exceeding $100 billion [4] - The total number of ETFs in the mutual connectivity program has increased from 273 to 364, enhancing investment options for overseas institutional investors [15] Group 5: A-Share Market and Foreign Investment - Foreign institutions are actively researching A-share investment opportunities, particularly in technology sectors such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, as they find current valuations attractive [8] - The A-share market has shown steady growth, with foreign institutions conducting a total of 70 research sessions on listed companies since the beginning of 2026 [8] Group 6: Data Market and Policy Initiatives - The data factor market is experiencing rapid development, with numerous policy documents focused on data value extraction being released, indicating a national directive for 2026 to be the "Year of Data Factor Value Release" [9] - Local practices are also advancing, with initiatives like the first transaction of a "embodied intelligent data set" completed in Jiangsu [9] Group 7: Performance of Listed Securities Firms - Listed securities firms are expected to report significant profit increases, with estimates indicating a 406% year-on-year growth in net profit for Guolian Minsheng and a 38.46% increase for CITIC Securities in 2025 [11] - The overall upward trend in China's capital market has led to increased expectations for the performance of securities firms [11] Group 8: Fund Management Trends - The first batch of new energy-themed funds has shown a shift in investment focus from traditional lithium batteries to advanced technologies such as smart driving and artificial intelligence [12] - Fund managers are maintaining high positions in their portfolios, reflecting confidence in the structural market trends for new energy sectors in 2026 [12]