CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.(600030)

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1.1万亿元,央行节后首日开展买断式逆回购
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-09 04:43
10月9日,在国庆中秋假期后的首个工作日,中国人民银行(下称"央行")以固定数量、利率招标、多 重价位中标方式开展1.1万亿元3个月期买断式逆回购操作。鉴于10月有8000亿元3个月期买断式逆回购 到期,10月3个月期买断式逆回购实现加量续作3000亿元。 尽管10月有累计1.3万亿元的到期量,但自今年6月以来央行每月均开展两次不同期限的买断式逆回购操 作。市场机构普遍预计10月央行还将开展一次6个月期限的买断式逆回购操作,预计10月买断式逆回购 继续保持净投放。 目前,央行基础货币投放渠道已较为丰富,MLF、买断式逆回购操作以及各类结构性工具均可以投放 中期流动性。截至今年9月,央行买断式逆回购已连续4个月加量续作,MLF已连续第7个月加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青此前向证券时报记者指出,现阶段政府债券仍处于发行高峰期,央行持续 注入中期流动性,有助于政府债券顺利发行。 近日,央行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会指出,保持流动性充裕,引导金融机构加大货币信贷投 放力度,使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 明明对此预计,央行在第四季度仍将通过多种货币政策工具持续维 ...
存储芯片概念强势 灿芯股份、华虹公司续创新高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-09 03:49
存储芯片概念9日盘中再度走强,截至发稿,灿芯股份、华虹公司20%涨停,均创出新高;德邦科技涨 超13%,北京君正、中微公司涨超10%,通富微电、深南电路、雅克科技等均涨停。 行业方面,CFM闪存市场近日发布2025年四季度存储市场展望报告。报告指出,预计四季度,服务器 eSSD涨幅将达到10%以上,DDR5 RDIMM价格涨幅约10%—15%;Mobile嵌入式NAND涨幅约5%— 10%,LPDDR4X/5X涨幅约10%—15%;PC端LPDDR5X/D5价格涨幅预计将落在10%—15%,cSSD价格 涨幅达5%—10%。2025年四季度,由于大型云服务商对高容量DDR5和eSSD新增需求显著,9月以来服 务器客户加单动作频频,新增订单需求超过原厂原计划的预期供应量,预计四季度eSSD涨幅将达到 10%,DDR5 RDIMM涨幅约10%—15%,原厂64GB DDR4 RDIMM价格或上涨15%至20%。 中信证券近日指出,9月以来,根据Bloomberg、CFM闪存市场,NAND Flash Wafer和部分存储模组均 有不同程度上涨,涨幅个位数。展望后续,Trend Force预计2025年四季度NAN ...
网下询价超374倍 华夏中海商业REIT创市场新高
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-10-09 03:08
华夏基金近日发布公告,华夏中海商业REIT(基金代码:180607)将于2025年10月13日至10月14 日正式发售,发售价格为5.281 元/份,拟募资总额为15.843亿元。其中,面向公众发售为0.27亿份。公 众投资者可按发售价格,通过场内证券经营机构或基金管理人及其委托的场外基金代销机构进行认购, 认购金额1000元起投(含认购费)。 华夏中海商业REIT首发底层资产佛山映月湖环宇城是中海旗下处于成熟运营阶段的标杆自持物 业。项目坐落于粤港澳大湾区广佛极核——国家级改革平台"广佛高质量发展融合试验区"(映月湖 片区)先行区,区位优势显著,是区域内重点大型购物中心,兼具交通通达性及市场稀缺性。凭借 优质底层资产的吸引力,在网下询价阶段,华夏中海商业REIT共收到149家网下投资者管理的1014个配 售对象的询价报价信息,拟认购数量总和为236.074亿份,为初始网下发售份额(0.63亿份)的374.72 倍,创市场新高,可见专业投资者对项目投资价值的认可。 (责任编辑:康博) 华夏中海商业REIT备受市场关注,除了底层资产优质,也离不开专业管理团队的赋能。基金发起 人中海拥有46年房地产开发与不动产运 ...
散户要注意了!节后A股三大动力已经到位,这3类股将引发行情
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 02:35
Group 1 - Nikkei 225 index surged 4.75% to reach a historical high, while Hang Seng Index rose 9.3% during the holiday, indicating strong performance in overseas markets [1] - A-share market has a historical trend of over 70% probability of rising in the first week after National Day, with three main drivers identified for a potential rebound [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November has risen to 94%, leading to a shift of global funds from high-yield assets to emerging markets, with Chinese assets becoming a focal point [3] Group 2 - Domestic policies and liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the A-share market, with the central bank injecting 300 billion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [5] - Various policy measures have been implemented, including tax refunds for semiconductor equipment purchases and consumer subsidies, creating a supportive environment for market recovery [5] - Industrial profits showed a significant turnaround, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in August, ending three months of negative growth [5] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing growth, with AMD and OpenAI entering a multi-billion dollar partnership, driving global demand for computing power [7] - The penetration rate of domestic AI chips is expected to rise from 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, with private equity firms showing strong confidence in the technology sector [7] - Historical data indicates a 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first five trading days after National Day, with an average increase of 1.41% [7] Group 4 - Analysts suggest the market has entered a "fundamentally driven bull market phase," with technology leading the way, while consumer and financial sectors are expected to catch up [9] - Semiconductor equipment companies are likely to benefit from policy subsidies, with firms like North Huachuang and Changchuan Technology showing strong profit growth [9] - The valuation of technology stocks remains low, with the computer industry PE at 38 times, below the 50th percentile since 2015 [9] Group 5 - Consumer sectors such as liquor and new energy are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and foreign capital inflow, supported by fiscal subsidies [11] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms and banks, are positioned to gain from improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes [11] - Concerns exist regarding whether high valuations in technology stocks have already priced in future growth, especially if foreign capital takes profits [11]
中信证券:港股上行动能延续,把握四大中长期方向
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 01:02
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that abundant liquidity and ongoing investments in AI are the two main drivers behind the sustained rise of Hong Kong stocks since early September [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "wealth effect" in Hong Kong stocks is expected to continue attracting southbound capital inflows [1] - The potential election of a new Japanese Prime Minister, if successful, could lead to arbitrage trading by Japanese investors benefiting Hong Kong stocks [1] - The ongoing capital expenditure by domestic and international companies in the AI sector, along with continuous iterations and innovations in large models and applications, may lead to performance realization in Hong Kong's complete AI and technology industry chain [1] Group 2: Valuation and Future Outlook - After six months of valuation expansion, the current absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks is considered not cheap [1] - However, with fundamentals expected to bottom out and a significant increase in earnings projected for 2026, Hong Kong stocks still hold considerable attractiveness on a global scale [1] - The report predicts that the long bull market for Hong Kong stocks since early 2024 will continue, driven by liquidity spillover effects and sustained AI narratives [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on four key long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI-related sub-sectors and consumer electronics [1] 2) Healthcare sector, particularly biotechnology [1] 3) Non-ferrous metals benefiting from rising overseas inflation expectations and de-dollarization [1] 4) Consumer sector, which is expected to see valuation recovery amid further domestic economic recovery [1]
中信证券:港股上行动能仍在 把握四大中长期方向
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:45
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to benefit from a complete domestic AI industry chain and the influx of quality A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, with a long-term bullish trend anticipated to continue into 2024 despite short-term geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Market Performance - During the National Day holiday from October 2-6, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.4% and 1.3% respectively, continuing the upward trend since September 5 [2] - Historically, the Hang Seng Index has averaged a 2.2% increase during the National Day holidays from 2015 to 2024, with the AH premium index averaging a contraction of 2.6% [2] - The average decline of the Hang Seng Index on the first trading day after the holiday is 1.5%, while the CSI 300 has an average increase of 0.9%, indicating a potential for A-shares to catch up post-holiday [2] Group 2: Liquidity and Investment Trends - Despite a 19% month-on-month decline in net inflows for Hong Kong ETFs in September, the total net inflow reached 172.7 billion yuan, the second highest since January 2021 [4] - The expectation of continued inflows into Hong Kong stocks is supported by low yields on financial products and money market funds, alongside a persistent "profit-making effect" in the market [4] - The correlation between the Hang Seng Tech Index and the USD/JPY exchange rate has turned positive, indicating potential benefits for Hong Kong stocks from Japanese investors' arbitrage activities [4] Group 3: AI Innovation and Investment - Major Chinese companies like Alibaba and Baidu are increasingly using self-designed chips for AI model training, reducing reliance on Nvidia chips [5] - Tencent, Baidu, and Alibaba are significantly increasing their capital expenditures in AI, with Alibaba planning to invest 380 billion yuan over three years [5] - The ongoing capital investments by U.S. tech giants in AI may lead to negative free cash flow for some companies, reflecting a global demand for AI investments [5] Group 4: Earnings Expectations - The net profit growth forecast for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index for 2026 is 8.4% and 28.1% respectively, indicating strong global attractiveness [7] - Recent weeks have shown signs of stabilization in profit expectations for various sectors, including gaming, biotech, and software, suggesting potential benefits from valuation adjustments in the fourth quarter [7] - The dynamic PE ratios for the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index are currently at 12.1x and 22.3x, indicating that while valuations may not appear cheap, there is still room for expansion due to liquidity and AI catalysts [8]
博车网递表港交所 中信证券和复星国际资本担任联席保荐人
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-09 00:34
博车网向港交所主板提交上市申请,中信证券和复星国际资本担任联席保荐人。 根据灼识咨询数据,截至2024年,博车网在中国事故车拍卖市场排名第一,市场份额约为31.4%。 中国事故车拍卖量从2020年的约20.5万辆增长到2024年的37.3万辆。相比之下,2024年美国事故车拍卖 量接近700万辆,约为中国的20倍,尽管两国汽车保有量相当。这表明中国事故车拍卖行业具有显著的 增长潜力。未来,汽车保有量增长、维修成本上升、新能源汽车普及导致理赔频率增加、保险公司直面 消费者、劳动力成本上涨以及保险意识提高等因素将驱动中国事故车拍卖行业的增长。 公司通过线上线下(300959)结合的拍卖模式,连接事故车车源方(主要是保险公司)和事故车买家(主要 是认证修理厂和持证汽车拆解厂)。博车网也是中国第三大B2B二手车拍卖平台,2024年拍卖量市场份 额约为12.0%。 ...
中信证券:国庆期间海外市场波动来自“高市交易” 短期内日股在“高市交易”中仍有不错表现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 00:33
中信证券研报指出,我国国庆假期期间降息交易仍是海外市场主线,市场对美联储降息预期无明显变 化,美股和美元指数小幅上涨、美债小幅波动、金价再创新高。美国政府如期停摆,9月非农就业数据 延期发布,9月ISM-PMI和"小非农"ADP共同显示美国经济继续温和降温的趋势。我们延续此前观点, 预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分别再次降息25bps。当地时间10月4日,高市早苗当选日本自 民党总裁,预计她将于10月15日左右接任日本首相。高市的政策主张为"负责任的扩张性财政政策+谨 慎加息",市场对应出现日股上涨、日债曲线陡峭化和日元贬值的"高市交易"。我们延续此前观点,预 计日银今年四季度可能加息25bps。10月7日,日本30Y国债拍卖结果显示目前市场对高市早苗可能会执 行的"宽财政"担忧尚且有限。我们预计,在此情形下,短期内日股在"高市交易"中仍有不错表现。 ...
中信证券:自主可控加速 持续看好国产算力
智通财经网· 2025-10-09 00:32
10月7日,根据腾讯混元官方微博的消息,LMArena发布最新视觉模型榜单,腾讯混元最新视觉模型 Hunyuan-Vision-1.5-Thinking 取得全球第3、国内第1的成绩。 智通财经APP获悉,中信证券发布研报称,2025年国庆期间,国产AI算力生态持续演进:服务器订单方 面,工商银行(01398)、中国联通(00762)公布合计百亿服务器招标结果,国产算力供应商中标占比超 90%;大模型方面,阿里(09988)发布大模型Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B且华为昇腾实现0 day支持,腾讯 (00700)混元最新视觉模型跻身LMArena榜单全球第三。中信证券认为当前国产算力加速演进,建议关 注龙头厂商。 中信证券主要观点如下: 百亿服务器招标落地,国产厂商为绝对主力。 10月4~5日,工商银行、中国联通相继公布服务器招标结果。工商银行:海光芯片服务器集采规模30亿 元,浪潮信息为正选中标方,中兴和联想为备选方案。中国联通:通用服务器集采合计金额79.6亿元, 共分为两个标包,标包一为预算8.95亿元的英特尔CPU服务器,中标候选人包括紫光华山、浪潮电子、 超聚变;标包二为预算42.85亿元的鲲鹏服 ...