证券研究报告 中信证券 (600030 CH/6030 HK) 港股通 业绩新高彰显龙头实力 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 证券 中信证券 2025年营收 749亿元，同比+29%；归母净利301亿元，同比+39%， （与业绩快报一致，符合预期）；其中 25Q4 单季度归母净利 69 亿元，环 比-27%。公司利润创历史新高、总资产突破 2 万亿元，行业龙头地位稳固、 各业务线全面抬升；估值在近期回调后更具性价比，胜率与赔率兼优；有望 受益于资本市场发展景气周期、进一步巩固竞争优势。维持"买入"评级。 净利润与总资产均创新高 全年归母净利 301 亿元，突破历史新高（次高为 2021 年 231 亿元）；总资 产 2.1 万亿元，相较年初+22%，同创历史新高。测算年末剔除客户保证金 后的杠杆率为 4.89x，同比+0.29x、较 Q3 末+0.07x，扩表+提杠杆趋势延 续。从资产结构看，年末金融投资规模 9583 亿元，较年初+11%、季度环 比+3%，投资资产体量进一步提升。费用端，公司全年管理费 331 亿元， 同比+10%；管理费率 44%，经调后同比-7. ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 03 月 27 日 中信证券（600030.SH） 券业龙头，地位稳固 总量研究/非银行金融 25 年中信证券实现营业收入 749 亿，同比+29%；归母净利润 301 亿，同比 +39%。年化 ROE 为 10.6%，同比+2.5pct；经营杠杆提升至 5.06 倍，高于 21 年水平。 （1）交投活跃提振经纪，财管境内取得突破、境外发展有序推进。25 年经纪 收入 148 亿，同比+38%；单四季度收入 38 亿，同比+7%，环比-16%。分项 看，代理买卖证券、交易单元席位租赁和代销金融产品收入分别为 155 亿、 16 亿和 20 亿，同比分别为+50%、+32%和+37%。买方投顾取得突破，25 年 公司发布"信 100"财富管理品牌，更好为客户提供涵盖"人-家-企-社"综合 金融解决方案，金融产品保有规模超 8000 亿元，客户数量超过 1700 万户、 较年初+10%；境外财管产品销交规模和保有规模倍增，全球化布局有序推进。 （2）投行领先优势突出。25 年投行收入为 63 亿元，同比+52%；单季度收 入 26 亿，同比+98%，环比+66%。境内 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's ROE for 2025 is reported at 10.58%, showing a significant increase from previous periods [1][2] - Total revenue for 2025 is projected to be 2.49 billion, reflecting a growth of 28% compared to the previous year [1] - The company achieved a net profit margin of 37.7% in 2025, indicating a strong performance [1] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The IPO segment generated 1.318 billion in revenue, with a notable increase of 90% year-over-year [1] - The ETF business line showed a growth rate of 35.73% in 2025, indicating robust demand in this area [2] - The FICC (Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities) segment also demonstrated strong performance, contributing significantly to overall revenue [2] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 4.8% increase in market share within the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investment sector [1] - The total assets under management (AUM) reached 151.7 billion, up from 190.6 billion in the previous year [1] - The REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) market segment is projected to grow by 18% in 2025 [2] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the ESG investment space, aligning with global trends towards sustainable investing [1] - There is a strategic emphasis on enhancing the ETF offerings to capture a larger market share [2] - The management highlighted plans to leverage technology and AI to improve operational efficiency and client service [1] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the overall market conditions, citing strong demand across various segments [1] - The company anticipates continued growth in the IPO and ETF markets, driven by favorable economic conditions [2] - There is a cautious outlook regarding potential regulatory changes that could impact the investment landscape [1] Other Important Information - The company is committed to maintaining a strong focus on risk management practices to navigate market volatility [1] - There is an ongoing investment in technology to enhance trading platforms and client engagement [2] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the expectations for the IPO market in 2025? - Management indicated that they expect a robust IPO market, driven by increased investor interest and favorable economic conditions [1] Question: How does the company plan to address potential regulatory changes? - The management stated that they are actively monitoring regulatory developments and are prepared to adapt strategies accordingly [2] Question: What initiatives are being taken to enhance ESG offerings? - The company is investing in research and development to create innovative ESG products that meet growing investor demand [1]

Group 1 - The Securities ETF Huashan (516200) opened down 0.91% at 0.982 yuan on March 27 [1][2] - Major holdings of the Securities ETF Huashan experienced declines, including Dongfang Wealth down 0.99%, CITIC Securities down 0.33%, and Guotai Junan down 0.78% [1][2] - The performance benchmark for the Securities ETF Huashan is the CSI All Share Securities Company Index return, managed by Huashan Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1][2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on March 9, 2021, the Securities ETF Huashan has returned -1.01%, with a return of -11.09% over the past month [1][2]

Group 1 - The Securities ETF Guolianan (159848) opened at 0.822 yuan, down 0.36% on March 27 [1] - Major holdings in the ETF, including Dongfang Caifu, CITIC Securities, and Guotai Junan, experienced declines ranging from 0.33% to 0.99% [1][2] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, with a return of 2.12% since its inception on February 9, 2021, and a recent one-month return of -11.11% [2] Group 2 - A MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating potential upward momentum for certain stocks [3]

Group 1 - The 180ESGETF Industrial Bank (510990) opened at a price of 0.999 yuan, experiencing a decline of 0.70% [1][2] - Major holdings of the 180ESGETF include Kweichow Moutai, which opened down 0.08%, and Ping An of China, which rose by 0.11% [1][2] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI 180 ESG Index return, managed by ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Company, with a fund manager named Li Ruimin [1][2] Group 2 - Since its establishment on June 18, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 0.48%, while its return over the past month has been -6.81% [1][2]

Core Insights - The overall industry outlook remains stable, with both leading firms and smaller companies continuing to enhance their product reserves and long-term IP operations, suggesting a robust mid-term industry climate [1] - The issuance of game licenses is expected to remain relaxed, with new product cycles driven by AI and IP commercialization trends likely to boost performance in the gaming sector [1] Group 1: Game License Issuance - The issuance of game licenses maintains a stable rhythm, with the National Press and Publication Administration releasing 133 game licenses in March, including 130 domestic and 3 imported games [2] - A total of 467 game licenses were issued in Q1 2026, comprising 453 domestic and 14 imported games, with a monthly issuance exceeding 100, indicating a normalized supply [2] Group 2: Product Reserves and Key Releases - Leading firms have a rich product reserve, with notable titles such as Tencent's "Little People Nation" attracting significant attention, having over 2.1 million pre-registrations [3] - Other key domestic game titles include works from companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment, Kyeong Network, and Star Shine Entertainment, showcasing a diverse range of offerings [3] Group 3: Supply Stability and Structural Optimization - The stability of supply has improved, with mobile games remaining the dominant category, as 72 out of the latest batch of domestic games are mobile, accounting for over 97% of the total [4] - The issuance structure is clear, ensuring continuous product supply and enhancing predictability for manufacturers regarding scheduling and revenue release, while also diversifying the types of games available [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates initial signs of "partial recovery" in the transit capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran beginning to establish a "safe corridor" for shipping through its territorial waters, anticipating a partial restoration of compliant oil tanker transit capacity [1][2]. Group 1: Current Situation and Data - Since March 1, Iranian oil exports have accounted for nearly three-quarters of the transit volume through the Strait of Hormuz, with CITIC Securities estimating that Iranian oil exports have exceeded 2 million barrels over the past 20 days, surpassing the average daily export of 1.59 million barrels projected for 2025 [2]. - In the last three days, two product tankers have passed through the Strait, with transit volumes recorded at 2, 1, 5, 7, and 3 vessels from March 20 to 24, compared to 127 vessels on February 27 [2]. - A preliminary vessel registration system has been established by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to approve safe passage for ships, with at least nine vessels reported to have used this new route [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand gap caused by limited transit is expected to be manageable, with a hypothetical recovery of transit volume to 40% of pre-conflict levels leading to a reduction in the actual demand gap to below 10% [4]. - The EIA data indicates that the oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz is approximately 14.2 million barrels per day, with 74.6% of this oil destined for Asia [4]. - The U.S. plans to gradually release 172 million barrels of strategic oil reserves over 120 days, which could further reduce the demand gap if all were directed to the Far East [4]. Group 3: Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - In the short term, rerouting and the release of strategic reserves are expected to alleviate the oil supply gap, although the increased shipping distance may lead to longer transit times and potential congestion at ports [5]. - In the mid-term, once stable transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored, there will be a need to replenish oil reserves that were consumed during the closure, which may support demand for oil transportation and keep VLCC rates relatively high [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a partial recovery in the traffic capacity of the Strait of Hormuz, with implications for oil transportation and pricing dynamics in the industry [1]. Group 1: Traffic and Capacity - From March 20 to 24, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz was 2/1/5/7/3, compared to 127 vessels on February 27 [1]. - In the last three days, two product oil tankers passed through the strait, while some crude oil tankers turned off their AIS signals, leading to missing positioning data [1]. - There are initial signals of "partial recovery" in the traffic capacity of the strait [1]. Group 2: Oil Demand and Supply Dynamics - Based on previous reports, the rerouted crude oil volume through alternative ports like Fujairah and Oman is estimated to be between 6 to 7 million barrels per day [1]. - If traffic volume recovers to 40% of pre-conflict levels, the actual demand gap is expected to narrow to within 10%, considering demand replacement from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Mexico [1]. Group 3: Pricing and Profit Outlook - The marginal changes in the traffic capacity of the Strait of Hormuz are noteworthy, as short-term adjustments in supply chain methods may lead to longer shipping distances [1]. - The release of U.S. strategic reserves is anticipated to drive up the TD22 (Gulf of Mexico to China) freight rates [1]. - A partial recovery in the strait's traffic capacity could catalyze replenishment demand, potentially leading to record-high profits for oil transportation companies by 2026 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the first quarter of 2026 will be a critical validation period for PCB equipment manufacturers regarding their expansion speed, market share growth, and profitability levels as terminal AI manufacturers finalize their strategies and downstream board manufacturers accelerate production [1] Group 2 - For the exposure, drilling, and testing segments, the report anticipates a quarter-on-quarter profit increase in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - In the electroplating segment, there is an expectation of a significant discrepancy in profit expectations for the first quarter of 2026 [1] - For the PCBA and Q fabric segments, the report predicts year-on-year growth in the first quarter of 2026, but the larger performance elasticity is expected to be released after the first quarter [1]