Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, indicating pressure on performance due to multiple factors, while maintaining a focus on investment and cash recovery [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 173.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.3% year-on-year [1] Sales and Contracts - The signed contract amount for the first three quarters was 201.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The signed area was 10.104 million square meters, down 25.1% year-on-year [1] - The sales recovery amounted to 194.1 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of 96% [1] Project Development - As of the end of the third quarter, the company had 549 ongoing and planned projects, with a total construction area of 44.83 million square meters and a planned development area of 45.16 million square meters [1] Future Outlook - The company has sufficient resources to be settled, and the impairment provision in Q4 2024 will result in a lower performance base for the year [1] - The company maintains a strong financing advantage, leading sales scale, and is committed to destocking and structural adjustment, with good project realization expected to support continued positive development [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters, indicating pressure on performance due to multiple factors, while maintaining a focus on investment and cash flow recovery [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 173.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.3% year-on-year [1] Sales and Contracts - The signed contract amount for the first three quarters was 201.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year [1] - The signed area was 10.104 million square meters, down 25.1% year-on-year [1] - The sales recovery amounted to 194.1 billion yuan, with a recovery rate of 96% [1] Project Development - As of the end of the third quarter, the company had 549 ongoing and planned projects, with a total construction area of 44.83 million square meters and a planned development area of 45.16 million square meters [1] Future Outlook - The company has sufficient resources to be settled, and the impairment provision in Q4 2024 will result in a lower performance base for the year [1] - The company maintains a significant financing advantage, leading sales scale, and is committed to destocking and structural adjustment, with good project realization expected to navigate through cycles and continue positive development [1]

国盛证券研报指出，保利发展2025年前三季度公司实现总营业收入1737.2亿元，同比减少5%；实现归 母净利润19.3亿元，同比减少75.3%。结转项目盈利能力下降致业绩下滑。销售规模维持行业第一，投 资强度和质量提升。2025年前三季度，公司签约面积1010.4万平方米，同比减少25.1%；签约金额 2017.3亿元，同比减少16.5%，销售规模维持克而瑞百强房企排行榜第一名。截至三季度末，公司共有 在建拟建项目549个，在建面积4483万平方米，待开发面积4516万平方米。考虑到公司作为央企龙头， 经营稳健融资优势显著，且拿地聚焦核心城市，土储质量不断优化，随着拿地毛利率修复，结算利润率 有望得到改善。维持"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments reported a decline in both revenue and profit for the third quarter of 2025, with pressure on gross profit margins from revenue recognition, yet maintained the top sales ranking in the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue and profit both declined in the third quarter of 2025 [1] - Gross profit margin under pressure due to revenue recognition [1] Group 2: Market Position - Maintained the top sales ranking in the industry [1] Group 3: Land Acquisition and Debt Structure - Continuous optimization of land reserve structure, with over 50% of land acquisitions in first-tier cities [1] - Improvement in debt structure and significant advantages in funding costs [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Poly Developments (600048.SH) [1][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 173.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion yuan, down 75.3% year-on-year [4][7]. - The decline in net profit was primarily due to a 2.5 percentage point drop in gross margin to 13.4%, a decrease in investment income by 1.79 billion yuan, and an increase in the proportion of minority shareholders' losses by 34.2 percentage points to 70.4% [7]. - The company focused on investment areas and actively recovered funds, achieving a signed amount of 201.73 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.5% year-on-year, and a signed area of 10.104 million square meters, down 25.1% year-on-year [7]. - The company has a significant number of ongoing and planned projects, with 549 projects under construction and a total construction area of 44.83 million square meters [7]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue for Poly Developments from 2023 to 2027 is as follows: 346.83 billion yuan in 2023, 311.67 billion yuan in 2024 (down 10.1%), 266.48 billion yuan in 2025 (down 14.5%), 221.17 billion yuan in 2026 (down 17.0%), and 194.63 billion yuan in 2027 (down 12.0%) [6][8]. - The net profit is expected to be 12.07 billion yuan in 2023, 5.00 billion yuan in 2024 (down 58.6%), 5.46 billion yuan in 2025 (up 9.1%), 6.51 billion yuan in 2026 (up 19.3%), and 7.51 billion yuan in 2027 (up 15.5%) [6][8]. - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve slightly from 13.9% in 2024 to 15.5% in 2027, while the net margin is expected to rise from 1.6% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2027 [6][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company has sufficient resources to be realized, and the expected low base for the year due to impairment provisions in Q4 2024 supports the current forecasts [7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.46 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 0.63 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16.6, 13.9, and 12.1 [7][8].

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund actively adjusted its portfolio in Q3, entering 7 new stocks and increasing holdings in 10 stocks, focusing on high-growth potential companies with solid fundamentals [1][3] - By the end of Q3, the Social Security Fund appeared among the top ten shareholders of 33 stocks, with a total holding value of 13.07 billion yuan [1] - The fund maintained its position in 6 stocks, while reducing holdings in 10 stocks, indicating a strategy to optimize its portfolio amid market fluctuations [1] New Investments - The Social Security Fund made its first investments in 7 stocks, including Jinling Mining, Lanke High-tech, and Electric Connection Technology, with Jinling Mining receiving the largest allocation of 8.81 million shares [1] - Most of the newly invested companies showed strong performance, with 6 out of 7 reporting year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters, and Lanke High-tech successfully turning a profit [1] - The average increase in the stock prices of the newly invested companies since October was 0.28%, with Jinling Mining seeing a cumulative increase of over 10% [1] Increased Holdings - The Social Security Fund increased its holdings in 10 stocks, with Poly Development receiving the largest increase of 19.86 million shares [3] - The fund's stake in Sankeshu and Xinqianglian grew by over 1.3 percentage points, reflecting strong confidence in their future development [3] - Among the 10 companies that received increased investments, 9 reported year-on-year profit growth in the first three quarters, with Xinqianglian turning a profit and achieving over 600 million yuan in net profit, benefiting from industry demand recovery and cost control [3] Investment Strategy - The investment trends of the Social Security Fund in Q3 signal a strong focus on quality growth stocks that represent China's economic transformation and upgrading [3] - The fund adheres to a value investment philosophy, prioritizing companies' profitability and growth potential as key decision-making criteria [3] - As a stabilizing force in the market, the Social Security Fund's holdings provide significant reference value for investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the movements of social security funds in the third quarter, highlighting their investments in various stocks and the performance of these holdings [3][4]. Group 1: Social Security Fund Holdings - At the end of the third quarter, social security funds appeared in the top ten shareholders of 33 stocks, holding a total of 625 million shares valued at 13.07 billion yuan [3]. - The most held stock by social security funds is Sanhe Tree, with three funds listed among its top shareholders, holding a total of 15.02 million shares, accounting for 2.04% of the company's circulating shares [3][4]. Group 2: New Investments - Social security funds initiated positions in 7 new stocks during the third quarter, with the largest holding being Jinling Mining at 8.81 million shares [6]. - Among the new investments, the highest holding ratio is for Blue Science and Technology, at 2.15% of circulating shares, followed by Electric Connection Technology at 2.12% [6][7]. - The average increase in stock prices for new investments since October is 0.28%, with Jinling Mining leading with a 10.36% increase [6][8]. Group 3: Increased Holdings - Ten stocks saw increased holdings from social security funds, with Poly Development having the largest increase of 19.86 million shares [8]. - The stocks with the highest increase in holding ratios are Sanhe Tree and New Strong Union, with increases of 1.33 and 1.31 percentage points, respectively [8][9]. - Among the stocks with increased holdings, nine reported a year-on-year increase in net profit, with New Strong Union turning a profit with a 84.10% increase in revenue [8][9].

Core Insights - The Social Security Fund has disclosed its stock holdings as of the end of Q3, appearing in the top ten shareholders of 44 companies, with a total holding of 726 million shares valued at 15.413 billion yuan [1][2] Group 1: Stock Holdings - The Social Security Fund has maintained its position in 8 stocks, reduced holdings in 13 stocks, initiated positions in 11 stocks, and increased holdings in 12 stocks [1] - The top holdings by the Social Security Fund include Poly Developments with 124 million shares, China Jushi with 85.52 million shares, and CNOOC Development with 55.16 million shares [1][2] - The highest percentage of shares held by the Social Security Fund is in Huace Navigation at 4.49%, followed by Baiya Shares at 4.34% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Among the stocks held by the Social Security Fund, 31 companies reported year-on-year net profit growth, with the highest increase seen in Xinqianglian at 1939.50% [2] - Other notable companies with significant net profit growth include Yongding Shares at 474.30% and Lanke High-tech at 260.93% [2] Group 3: Market Performance - The average performance of stocks heavily held by the Social Security Fund has seen a decline of 0.14% since October, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - The best-performing stock is Beifang Changlong with a cumulative increase of 17.55%, followed by Shenhuo Shares and Haotaitai with increases of 16.24% and 12.69% respectively [2]

同时，今年9月，在回应投资者有关利润下降的提问时，保利发展管理层解释，因期内房地产项目结转规模下降，公司营业总收入同比下 降，在市场出现波动背景下，结转项目盈利能力下降，相关利润指标相应同比下降。 保利发展管理层也表示："行业仍处于深度调整期，公司虽已保持较大强度的增量投资，且增量项目盈利能力较好，但存量项目较多，去库 存与盈利改善仍然需要一定周期。公司持续坚持去库存经营策略。在会计期末，公司对房地产项目进行减值测试，若出现减值情况，公司将 计提减值。" 对此，镜鉴咨询创始人张宏伟也表示："今年第三季度保利发展结转的项目大多是来源于2022年下半年至2023年这个时间段的，在这个阶 段，一方面，房地产市场行情持续下行；另一方面，这次结转的项目也有可能是之前保利发展为了冲规模目标而布局在三四线城市的项目， 这部分项目由于降价或亏本销售，在结算时影响了整体的利润表现。" 10月21日，"地产一哥"保利发展发布了2025年第三季度报告。 报告显示，保利发展第三季度营业收入568.65亿元，同比增长30.65%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为-7.82亿元，同比下降299.19%。 保利发展在财报中表示，受行业和市场波 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China shows a mixed performance in 2025, with a decline in land transaction area but an increase in average transaction price [4][6][7] - Major real estate companies are actively increasing their land reserves, with China Overseas Land & Investment leading in value [5] Group 1: Land Transaction Data - In the first nine months of 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, while the average transaction price increased by 17% [4] - In first-tier cities, the supply of residential land decreased by 26.9%, with transaction area down by 23.6%, but the average transaction price rose by 42% to 41,137 CNY/sqm [4] - Second-tier cities saw a slight increase in land supply by 1.4% and a transaction area increase of 8.2%, with an average price of 7,628 CNY/sqm, up 13.1% [4] - Third-tier cities experienced a significant drop in land supply by 26.8% and transaction area by 14.5%, while the average price increased by 8.9% to 3,522 CNY/sqm [4] Group 2: Major Real Estate Companies - The top three companies by newly added land reserve value in the first nine months of 2025 are China Overseas Land & Investment (112.4 billion CNY), China Merchants Shekou (94.1 billion CNY), and Greentown China (63.2 billion CNY) [5] - In terms of newly added land reserve area, the leaders are China Overseas Land & Investment (3.83 million sqm), Greentown China (2.87 million sqm), and Poly Developments (2.79 million sqm) [5] Group 3: Core City Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the core 30 cities accounted for 48.1% of the total residential land transaction area in 100 cities, and 82% of the total transaction value [7] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was 11,670 CNY/sqm, reflecting a 25.3% year-on-year increase [6][7] - The core 6 cities alone contributed 12% of the transaction area and 47% of the total transaction value in the same period [7]