Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the real estate sector [2] Core Views - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 4.1% in the 10th week, ranking 26th among 31 industry sectors [9] - New home transaction volume is expected to face downward pressure due to a decline in demand, unresolved inventory issues, and the negative impact of land finance on the economy [34] Industry Overview - **Basic Data**: The sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 1,211.98 billion and a circulating market value of about 1,161.24 billion [2] - **Sales Performance**: In the 10th week, new home sales in 20 cities decreased by 10% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year, with total sales area of 1.21 million square meters [22][24] - **Second-hand Home Market**: In the same week, second-hand home sales in 11 cities increased by 37% month-on-month but decreased by 31% year-on-year, totaling 1.69 million square meters [26][30] Policy Developments - Local policies include measures in Nanchong to support newlyweds with housing loans and adjustments in Taiyuan's housing fund loan policies to extend loan terms [16][19] - In Hangzhou, a notification was issued to promote high-quality development in the real estate sector, offering subsidies for new home purchases [19] Company Dynamics - **Poly Developments**: Acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 3.224 billion, with a floor price of 44,985 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 51.08% [20][21] - **China Overseas Development**: Reported a 35.9% year-on-year decline in property sales for February, totaling approximately 8.464 billion [21] - **Yuexiu Group**: Reported a 53.3% year-on-year decline in sales for February, with total sales of approximately 2.905 billion [21] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: 1. Precision in land acquisition for development companies, recommending firms like Greentown China and China Overseas Hongyang [34] 2. Stable income assets, particularly leading shopping centers, with a recommendation for Swire Properties [34] 3. Real estate intermediaries with strong management systems, recommending Beike-W for its efficiency and market share [34]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has strategically acquired two prime residential land parcels in Hangzhou within five days, indicating a clear intent to capitalize on the scarcity and value of core area assets in the current market [2][6]. Group 1: Hangzhou Land Transactions - On March 10, a residential land parcel in Hangzhou was sold for a total price of 1.586 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.11% [1][3]. - The land parcel covers an area of 23,133 square meters with a planned construction area of 41,639.4 square meters and a plot ratio of 1.8, making it the lowest plot ratio among recent residential land sales in the Qianjiang Century City area [3][4]. - The competitive bidding process involved 23 rounds, reflecting a decrease in market heat compared to previous sales, as developers are now more cautious in their land acquisitions [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Land Value - The high land price is attributed to the scarcity of land indicators and the low-density improvement characteristics of the parcel, which is expected to be developed into a combination of "洋房 + 小高层" (low-rise apartments and small high-rise buildings) [4][6]. - The location benefits from comprehensive amenities, being close to the core value circle of the Olympic Sports Center, with easy access to transportation and educational institutions [4][6]. - Poly Developments' successful sales of its project in the same area have provided confidence in the market, allowing the company to make further investments in the region [4][6]. Group 3: Other Market Activities - On March 6, Poly Developments also acquired a residential land parcel in Hangzhou for 3.224 billion yuan, with a floor price of 44,985 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 51.08% [5][6]. - In Chengdu, two residential land parcels were sold on March 10, with one parcel achieving a premium of over 10%, totaling 412 million yuan in sales [7].

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has strategically acquired two prime residential land parcels in Hangzhou within five days, indicating a clear intent to capitalize on the scarcity and value of core area assets in the current market [2][6]. Group 1: Hangzhou Land Transactions - On March 10, a residential land parcel in Hangzhou was sold for a total price of 1.586 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,084 yuan per square meter and a premium rate of 16.11% [1][4]. - The land parcel covers an area of 23,133 square meters with a planned construction area of 41,639.4 square meters and a plot ratio of 1.8, making it the lowest plot ratio for residential land in the Qianjiang Century City area in recent years [4][5]. - The strategic acquisition by Poly Developments reflects the company's focus on low-density improvement properties, which are expected to be developed into a combination of "洋房 + 小高层" (low-rise apartments and small high-rise buildings) [5][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The land market in Hangzhou is characterized by a "few but fine" supply strategy, which resonates with the cautious investment strategies of real estate companies, highlighting the increasing scarcity and risk resistance of core area assets [2][6]. - The successful sale of the land reflects the strong market confidence driven by the robust performance of properties in the Olympic Sports Center and Century City areas, where Poly Developments has previously launched successful projects [5][6]. Group 3: Chengdu Land Transactions - On the same day, two residential land parcels were sold in Chengdu, with one parcel achieving a premium of over 10%, totaling 412 million yuan in sales [2][8]. - The new land parcel in Chengdu has a planned construction area of 45,903 square meters and was acquired by Chengdu Huari Chenshi Real Estate Co., Ltd. at a floor price of 5,950 yuan per square meter, reflecting a premium rate of 10.19% [8].

Macro Dynamics - The National Market Supervision Administration is conducting a nationwide special rectification focusing on counterfeit meat products and edible vegetable oils, with 41,700 cases investigated and fines totaling 329 million yuan in 2025 [2] - The special rectification involved inspections of 4.55 million production and operation entities and monitoring of 375,600 batches, leading to the rectification of 461,200 hidden problems [2] Company Dynamics - Shanxi Securities has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to participate in carbon emission trading [8] - Huishang Bank's stock rose over 8% after being officially included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, with a reported revenue of approximately 37.67 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [9] - Tencent's AI assistant WorkBuddy has officially launched, compatible with OpenClaw, allowing users to automate tasks and integrate with various communication tools [15] - Poly Developments reported a 36.66% year-on-year decrease in signed contracts for February 2026, with a total signed amount of 10.132 billion yuan [19]

| 证券代码：600048 | 证券简称：保利发展 | 公告编号：2026-013 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：110817 | 转债简称：保利定转 | | 2026 年 2 月份销售情况简报 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 特此公告。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二六年三月九日 2026 年 1-2 月，公司实现签约面积 118.47 万平方米，同比减少 23.81%；签 约金额 257.49 亿元，同比减少 24.29%。 由于销售过程中存在各种不确定性，上述销售数据可能与定期报告披露的数 据存在差异，相关数据以公司定期报告为准。 2026 年 2 月，公司实现签约面积 45.48 万平方米，同比减少 41.91%；签约 金额 101.32 亿元，同比减少 36.66%。 ...

| 证券代码：600048 | 证券简称：保利发展 | 公告编号：2026-014 | | --- | --- | --- | | 转债代码：110817 | 转债简称：保利定转 | | | | | | | 单位：平方米、万元 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 序号 | 获取 项目名称 | 土地 用地 | 规划容积 | 我方需支 | 权益 | | | 方式 | 用途 面积 | 率面积 | 付价款 | 比例 | | 1 | 石家庄市桥西区 招拍挂 振岗路南侧地块 | 住宅 43,121 | 94,867 | 68,700 | 100% | 由于项目开发过程中存在各种不确定性，上述数据可能与定期报告披露的数 据存在差异，相关数据以公司定期报告为准。 特此公告。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二六年三月九日 图 1：石家庄市桥西区振岗路南侧地块 关于本公司获得房地产项目的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 自公司《关于本公司获得房地产项目的公告》（公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in sales data following the two sessions, indicating a potential recovery in the real estate market [1][7] - The government is focusing on policies to control supply, reduce inventory, and improve the quality of housing supply, which may positively impact the market [7][14] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index fell by 4.09%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 1.07%, indicating underperformance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [4][12] 2. Industry Fundamentals - For the week of February 27 to March 5, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 18,605 units, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6% but a month-on-month increase of 161.4%. The total area sold was 2.357 million square meters, down 18.4% year-on-year but up 235.9% month-on-month [5][21] - The total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 16,477 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% and a month-on-month increase of 145.7%. The total area sold was 1.605 million square meters, down 26.8% year-on-year but up 150% month-on-month [5][40] 3. Land Market Supply and Transactions - During the week, 1,277.8 million square meters of land were supplied, with an average price of 1,732 yuan per square meter. The total land transaction area was 2,147.9 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1,998.5% [6] 4. Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 10.55 billion yuan in credit bonds during the week, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 36.26% but a month-on-month increase of 1,821.68% [6]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the government's focus on stabilizing the real estate market, with a shift from risk prevention to supporting people's livelihoods, particularly for newly married and newborn families [5][16][17] - The "small spring" recovery trend in the real estate market continues, with significant increases in new and second-hand housing transactions across various cities [5][9] - The report indicates a notable improvement in new housing supply, although the overall supply levels have not yet returned to normal [5][9] Policy Overview - The central government has reiterated its commitment to stabilizing the real estate market, with a target economic growth rate adjusted to 4.5%-5% for 2026 and a budget deficit maintained at 4% [16][18] - The government aims to enhance fiscal efficiency by allocating 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan for long-term special bonds [16][18] - There is a clear intention to support the housing needs of new citizens and young families, with policies expected to strengthen throughout the year [17][19] Market Performance - New housing transactions in 50 cities increased by 183% week-on-week, with a year-on-year growth of 20.7% [5][9] - Second-hand housing transactions also saw a significant rise, with an increase of 189% week-on-week in 11 cities and a year-on-year growth of 13% [5][9] - The report notes that the transaction volume for second-hand homes has maintained a positive trend, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 36.1% since the beginning of the "small spring" [5][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New housing launches improved significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 557%, although the supply remains below normal levels [5][9] - The report highlights a slight increase in second-hand housing listings, with a 0.2% week-on-week rise in 140 cities, indicating a slow recovery in the market [5][9] - The land supply has increased, but transaction performance has been poor, with a total land sale revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, down 73.2% week-on-week [5][9] Capital Market Insights - The real estate sector underperformed in the capital market, with a decline of 4.1% compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [5][9] - Major real estate companies experienced varying degrees of decline, with some companies like China Overseas Land and Investment showing smaller declines compared to others [5][9] - The report notes that the C-REITs sector continues to develop, with 14 applications currently under review, indicating a proactive approach to commercial real estate investment trusts [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [12] Core Insights - The land market in 2025 is characterized by a reduction in total volume but an increase in quality, indicating a shift from scale expansion to structured improvement. The focus is on precise investment and management to drive profits [6][22] - The average net profit margin for key companies in land acquisition is expected to stabilize between 5% and 10% in 2025, with companies like Jianfa, China Resources, and China Overseas potentially showing better performance [3][8] - The investment strategies of real estate companies have shifted from a broad "net-casting" approach to a more defensive focus on safety and efficiency, with a significant portion of land investment concentrated in six core cities [6][30] Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - The land market shows a narrowing decline in transaction volume, with a significant drop in the area and value of residential land transactions across 300 cities, down 13% and 10% year-on-year respectively. However, the decline is less severe than in previous years [23][24] - The average transaction premium rate for land reached over 15% in March, reflecting a temporary surge in market activity before returning to a more rational state [6][23] Methodology for Land Quality Assessment - A new evaluation tool for land quality has been developed, utilizing an entropy method to score 60 major cities and categorize them into four tiers based on location and planning attributes. This helps in assessing land quality and investment potential [7][40][41] Key Company Analysis - Key companies have shown improved granularity and prudence in investment decisions compared to previous upcycles. The report highlights that about 70-80% of land payments are focused on the six core cities, indicating a strategic shift towards safer investments [8][30] - Companies like China Resources, Jinmao, and Jianfa are expected to have stronger profitability from their acquired land, while others like Binjiang and Greentown have smaller land acquisition volumes but higher certainty in profit realization [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on value-oriented companies with strong balance sheets and excellent product delivery capabilities, such as China Resources and Jianfa, as well as companies like Greentown and Jinmao that are improving through refined management practices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The first land auction in Hangzhou after the Spring Festival was highly competitive, with 12 developers participating and over 100 rounds of bidding, indicating a strong market demand for residential properties in the area [3][4]. Group 1: Auction Details - The auctioned land is located in the Chengdong New City area of Hangzhou, covering an area of 32,576 square meters with a floor area ratio of 2.2, allowing for a total buildable area of 71,667 square meters [3]. - The starting total price for the land was 213,394 million yuan, translating to an initial floor price of 29,776 yuan per square meter, which is nearly 10,000 yuan lower than similar plots sold last year in the same area, providing developers with a profit margin [3]. - The land was ultimately won by Poly Developments at a final floor price of 45,000 yuan per square meter, resulting in a premium rate of 51% [3][4]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Factors contributing to the auction's success include the land's advantageous location with views of the Grand Canal and proximity to the Metro Line 4, enhancing its appeal to potential buyers [4][5]. - The positive sales performance of a nearby project that launched in September last year has demonstrated the attractiveness of the Chengdong New City area to homebuyers [5]. - Poly Developments has been actively investing in Hangzhou, launching several projects since 2025, and the strong start to the land market with over 50% premium rates signals a positive market outlook, with core areas still favored by leading real estate companies [5].