证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 二手房成交回暖，《求是》发文提及城市更新 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/17-26/1/23） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.8%、深证成指上升 1.1%、创业板指下跌 0.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 0.6%、房地产（申万）上升 5.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣控(+15.8%)、 顺发恒能(+15.7%)、城投控股(+14.9%)、大悦城(+14.4%)、珠免集团(+12.6%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：城建发展(-6.0%)、中洲控股(-2.8%)、电子城(-2.1%)、特发服务(-1.9 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。整体来看，25 年公司业绩符合预期，四季度净利率同环比回升。投资端补货力 度上升2 成，资产质量不断优化。预计26-27 年归母净利润33、67 亿元。合理价值方面，按保利25Q3 归母净资产（扣永续债）0.6xPB 估计，对应合理价值9.67 元/股，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示。购房者信心不足，景气度或持续维持低位，公司销售表现不及预期；房价下行存在减值压 力；促销手段影响利润率。 销售均价提升，投资端积极进取。根据公司经营公告，销售层面，25年公司销售金额2530 亿元，同 比-22%，销售均价2.05 万元/平，同比+13.9%。拿地层面，25 年公司全口径拿地金额791 亿元，同比 +16%，拿地权益比88%维持不变。拿地金额/销售金额为31%，同比回升10pct，全口径拿地货值1537 亿 元，权益拿地货值1355 亿元，权益补货力度为68%，较24 年提升20pct。25 年公司共在25 个城市获取 52个项目，一线城市资源占比从24 年的74%降至25 年的48%，二线占比从24 年21%提升至43%，三四 线占比从24 年的4%提升至10%。 业绩符合预期。公司发布业 ...

开发商实力直接决定楼盘交付安全性，对于广州滨江天地、星河江缦、兰园江悦、广州幸福湾、保利珠 江天悦的购房者而言，"哪家开发商更靠谱、有无烂尾风险" 是核心顾虑。由克而瑞好房点评提供的专 项测评，从企业背景、资金实力、交付履约记录、项目工程进度四大维度，对各项目开发主体进行全面 评估，形成权威实力榜单与风险研判。 测评结果显示，开发商综合实力及安全系数榜单中，保利珠江天悦与广州滨江天地并列第一，两者均具 备极强的抗风险能力；广州幸福湾、星河江缦紧随其后，具备稳定开发能力；兰园江悦因开发主体规模 相对有限，排名稍靠后，但目前无明确风险预警。该榜单由克而瑞好房点评结合企业财报、行业评级及 项目实测信息得出，客观反映各项目交付安全性。 广州滨江天地由中国船舶集团与中信泰富地产双央企联袂打造，实力同样不容小觑。中国船舶集团是全 球最大的造船集团，具备极强的资金实力与资源整合能力；中信泰富地产作为中信集团旗下核心地产平 台，深耕优质经济圈，开发经验丰富。双央企背书意味着项目资金链稳定，且目前部分楼栋已达到现房 销售标准，工程进度透明，烂尾风险极低。克而瑞测评显示，项目工程进度评分达 8.2 分，远超行业平 均水平，进一步 ...

Market Overview - The real estate development sector experienced a decline of 2.03% on January 26, with Hualian Holdings leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Suzhou Gaoxin, which rose by 10.06% to a closing price of 7.88, and Wolong New Energy, which increased by 9.97% to 8.71 [1] - Hualian Holdings saw a significant drop of 10.01%, closing at 6.29, with a trading volume of 156.48 million shares [2] Trading Volume and Capital Flow - The real estate development sector saw a net outflow of 1.837 billion yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 1.08 billion yuan [2] - The trading volume for Suzhou Gaoxin was 528,200 shares, with a transaction value of 414 million yuan [1] Individual Stock Capital Flow - Suzhou Gaoxin had a net inflow of 1.18 billion yuan from institutional investors, representing 28.48% of its total trading volume [3] - Hualian Holdings faced a net outflow of 614.58 million yuan from retail investors, indicating a negative sentiment towards the stock [3]

[分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 SFC CE No. BNN906 021-38003639 guoz@gf.com.cn 分析师： 邢莘 SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 021-38003638 xingshen@gf.com.cn 请注意，邢莘并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 保利发展（600048.SH）:尾 [Table_Page] 公告点评|房地产开发 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 保利发展（600048.SH） | | --- | 减值力度加大，整体符合预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_ 单位 Finance] :人民币百万元 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 346,894 | 311,666 | 308 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a rising interest in the real estate sector, with several property stocks experiencing significant gains in the afternoon trading session [1] - A report from Ping An Securities highlights that the market's previous low expectations for sales in early 2026 have shifted, as the Iceberg Index shows a substantial month-on-month increase in second-hand home transactions in key cities, indicating a resilient market despite the off-peak season [1] - Poly Developments released an earnings forecast this week, alleviating some performance pressure on the sector, while traditional real estate has underperformed the market, suggesting limited downside potential [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities notes a significant decline in the real estate fundamentals by Q4 2025, but there has been a stabilization in property prices and gradual improvement in fundamentals since late 2025, with policy expectations also rising [2] - The probability of property prices stopping their decline has increased from "impossible" to "possible," and if there is no repeat of the "price for volume" strategy after the Spring Festival, the likelihood of price stabilization could rise to "very likely" [2] - The adjustment in real estate stocks by December 2025 has been substantial, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].