事件 2026 年1 月19 日保利发展发布2025 年业绩快报，预计全年营业收入3082.61亿元，同比-1.09%；预计全 年利润总额97.24 亿元，同比-37.59%；预计全年归母净利润10.26 亿元，同比-79.49%。 行业和市场波动影响，毛利率和减值影响当期业绩。 公司2025 年营收同比基本持平，而归母净利润同比降幅较大，主要由于：①行业调整阶段，公司当期 房地产项目结转毛利率同比下降；②基于谨慎原则，结合当前市场情况计提资产和信用减值损失，2025 年全年拟计提约69 亿元（2024年计提57 亿元），预计减少当期归母净利润约42 亿元。若不考虑减值影 响，2025年归母净利润约52 亿元，其中四季度约33 亿元。 销售仍居行业榜首，拿地聚焦核心城市。 2025 年公司已回购1.05 亿股，持续提振市场信心。 投资建议： 考虑行业调整阶段，公司毛利率波动和资产减值情况，我们预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 10.26 亿元、17.22 亿元和28.07 亿元，同比增速为-79.5%、+67.9%和+63.0%，EPS 分别为0.09/0.14/0.23 元/股。当前股价对应20 ...

开源证券研报指出，保利发展减值拖累利润水平，期待优质项目结转后业绩修复。预计公司2025全年营 收微降，归母净利润由于计提减值承压，但公司销售排名稳居首位，土储结构不断优化，融资渠道畅 通，资金成本优势明显。受房地产销售景气度影响，公司计提减值规模增加，下调盈利预测，当前股价 对应PE估值分别为76.2、17.7、12.9倍，该行看好公司低价项目结转完成后业绩持续修复，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Poly Developments is maintained at "Buy" [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to experience a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with a significant drop in net profit due to impairment provisions. However, it remains the top seller in the industry, with an optimized land reserve structure and advantageous financing channels [2][3] - The anticipated net profit for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.03 billion, 4.42 billion, and 6.07 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.09, 0.37, and 0.51 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 76.2, 17.7, and 12.9 times [2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. The total profit is expected to be 9.72 billion yuan, down 37.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 1.03 billion yuan, a decline of 79.5% [3][6] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project transfers and an impairment loss of 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to impact net profit by 4.2 billion yuan [3][6] Sales Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a cumulative sales amount of 253.03 billion yuan, down 21.7% year-on-year, with a sales area of 12.35 million square meters, down 31.2%. The average sales price increased by 13.9% to 20,483 yuan per square meter [4] - The company acquired land worth 77.13 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 13.0% year-on-year, with a land area of 4.572 million square meters, up 39.2%. The average land price decreased by 18.8% to 16,869 yuan per square meter [4] Financial Management and Cost Structure - The company has streamlined its headquarters organizational structure to enhance management efficiency. Financing channels remain open, with a total bond issuance of 37.58 billion yuan in 2025 at a maximum coupon rate of 2.55% [5] - The financing cost has been continuously reduced, with the three-year medium-term note issued in November at a rate of 1.85% [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The financial summary indicates a projected operating revenue of 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan. The gross margin is expected to be 12.7%, and the net margin at 0.3% [6][11] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 76.2 for 2025, decreasing to 12.9 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in valuation as performance improves [6][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant contributions and career progression of Wu Lanyu, the Vice President of Poly Development, particularly her impact on Poly Property's growth and performance since taking over as Chairman [1][3]. Group 1: Career Background - Wu Lanyu, born in 1979, has an extensive background within the Poly system, having graduated with dual bachelor's degrees in Management and Law from Wuhan University of Technology and a master's degree in Communication from Huazhong University of Science and Technology [3]. - She began her career at Poly Development in 2005 as a grassroots business manager and held various positions, including head of marketing at Guangzhou Science City Poly Real Estate Development Co., and assistant general manager at Poly (Wuhan) Real Estate Development Co. [3]. - In 2018, she transitioned from the real estate sector to become the General Manager of Poly Property, and in early 2023, she succeeded Huang Hai as Chairman of Poly Property [3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Under Wu Lanyu's leadership, Poly Property has seen continuous revenue growth, with reported revenues of approximately 15.062 billion yuan in 2023, marking a 10% increase from 2022 [3]. - The net profit for Poly Property in 2023 was around 1.38 billion yuan, reflecting a 24% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - Projections for 2024 indicate continued growth, with expected revenues of 16.342 billion yuan and net profits of 1.474 billion yuan, surpassing the performance during Huang Hai's tenure [3]. Group 3: Recognition and Compensation - In August 2025, Wu Lanyu was appointed as Vice President of Poly Development, which serves as recognition of her past achievements and management capabilities [5]. - Wu Lanyu's annual salary for 2024 is reported to be 3.32 million yuan, which is considered substantial for a state-owned enterprise [6].

房地产/房地产开发 保利发展（600048.SH） 减值拖累利润水平，期待优质项目结转后业绩修复 2026 年 01 月 21 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 经营管理能力优秀的龙头央企，维持"买入"评级 保利发展发布 2025 年业绩快报，预计公司 2025 全年营收微降，归母净利润由于 计提减值承压，但公司销售排名稳居首位，土储结构不断优化，融资渠道畅通， 资金成本优势明显。受房地产销售景气度影响，公司计提减值规模增加，我们下 调盈利预测，预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 10.3、44.2、60.7 亿元（前 值 42.6、52.4、64.1 亿元），EPS 分别为 0.09、0.37、0.51 元，当前股价对应 PE 估值分别为 76.2、17.7、12.9 倍，我们看好公司低价项目结转完成后业绩持续修 复，维持"买入"评级。 营收基本持平，计提减值影响利润水平 2025 全年公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing a decline in profits due to industry fluctuations, with a projected total profit of 9.72 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.59% [1][2]. - The company's sales remain the highest in the industry, with a signed sales amount of 253 billion yuan in 2025, despite a year-on-year decrease of 21.67% [3]. - The company has announced a three-year shareholder return plan, committing to annual cash dividends of no less than 40% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's expected revenue for 2025 is 308.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.09% year-on-year [1][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.03 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant decline of 79.49% compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.09 yuan, with expected growth rates of -79.5% for 2025, +67.9% for 2026, and +63.0% for 2027 [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a net profit of 1.026 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 79.49% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.026 billion yuan for 2025, down 79.49% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be 628 million yuan, a decrease of 85.25% year-on-year [1] - Excluding impairment impacts, the operating net profit attributable to shareholders is estimated at 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Strategic Actions - Poly Developments has actively implemented inventory reduction strategies, which, while pressuring short-term profits, help avoid systemic risks and facilitate structural adjustments [1] - The company maintains a leading expansion scale, with total expansion amount exceeding 79 billion yuan in 2025 and cumulative expansion exceeding 390 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [1] Group 3: Market Position and Financial Health - The company achieved a total sales amount of 253 billion yuan in 2025, ranking first in the industry for three consecutive years [2] - The asset-liability ratio has decreased for four consecutive years, reaching 73% as of September 2025, down approximately 5 percentage points from its peak [2] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a cash balance of 122.646 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of real estate companies is expected to stabilize as they navigate through the current market challenges, with a focus on asset impairment provisions and strategic investments in long-cycle industries [2][3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments announced a projected revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, reflecting a decline compared to 2024 [2][4]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling approximately 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by about 4.2 billion yuan [4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investment, with companies exploring new revenue streams beyond traditional real estate development, such as entering long-cycle industries and enhancing service offerings [3][6]. - The top 100 real estate companies are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, driven by favorable policies and the need for sustainable development [5]. - The industry is expected to enter a new development phase in 2026, as many companies have passed the peak of delivery and debt repayment, indicating a potential for recovery and stabilization in performance [2][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Real estate companies are increasingly focusing on property operations and other sectors, with many adopting strategies to enhance their operational efficiency and capitalize on the growing REITs market [6][7]. - Companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also expanding their presence in property operations, with significant growth in recurring income and rental revenues [6]. - The market conditions are improving, with expectations for a recovery in 2026, as companies work towards repairing their balance sheets and potentially achieving profitability [8].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is expected to stabilize as companies navigate through the current market challenges and explore new growth avenues, with major players like Poly Developments taking significant steps to adjust their strategies and financials [2][3][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - Poly Developments reported an estimated revenue of approximately 308.26 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.09%, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of about 1.03 billion yuan, a decline compared to 2024 [2][3]. - The company plans to recognize asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaling around 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce the net profit for 2025 by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [3][4]. - Excluding the impact of impairment provisions, Poly Developments' net profit for 2025 is estimated to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with the fourth quarter contributing approximately 3.3 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The real estate sector is witnessing a cautious yet orderly expansion in investments, with companies focusing on stabilizing their operations and gradually reducing the impact of impairment provisions [2][3]. - The top 100 real estate companies in China are projected to have a total land acquisition amount of 964 billion yuan in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4]. - The market is expected to see a recovery in 2026 as companies navigate through the peak of delivery and debt repayment, entering a new development phase [2][6]. Group 3: Strategic Shifts - Many leading real estate firms are diversifying into long-cycle industries and real estate operations, with plans to invest in high-tech sectors and enhance service offerings [3][5]. - Poly Developments has expanded its operational assets to 5.73 million square meters, including 26,000 rental housing units, which increased by 18% compared to the end of 2024 [5]. - Other companies like China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou are also pursuing similar strategies in real estate operations and indirect investments through industry funds [5].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic and real estate industries are experiencing significant losses, with the real estate sector facing even more severe challenges as many companies, including state-owned enterprises, are projected to report substantial losses in 2025 [1][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic Industry Losses - Tongwei Co. is expected to report a loss of 9 to 10 billion yuan, TCL Zhonghuan is projected to lose 9.2 to 9.6 billion yuan, LONGi Green Energy is expected to lose 6 to 6.5 billion yuan, and JA Solar is projected to lose 4.5 to 4.8 billion yuan in 2025 [1]. Real Estate Industry Losses - As of January 19, 2026, 22 A-share listed real estate companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with only Poly Development expected to be profitable, while the other 21 companies are projected to incur losses [1][3]. - Poly Development anticipates a net profit of 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, a significant decrease of 79.49% compared to 2024, despite a slight revenue decline of 1.09% [4]. Major Losses Among Real Estate Companies - China Fortune Land Development and Greenland Holdings are expected to report losses exceeding 10 billion yuan, with China Fortune Land Development projected to lose between 16 to 24 billion yuan and Greenland Holdings expected to lose between 16 to 19 billion yuan [6][7]. - Other companies such as Beichen Industrial, Guangming Real Estate, and Jingtou Development are also expected to report losses exceeding 1 billion yuan [7]. Shift from Profit to Loss - Companies like Huafa Holdings and Tibet Urban Investment, which were profitable in 2024, are projected to report losses in 2025, marking a significant shift in their financial performance [8]. - The overall trend indicates that many companies are facing unprecedented challenges, with some experiencing their first losses in decades [1][8]. Market Conditions and Profitability - The decline in profitability across the real estate sector is attributed to a prolonged downturn in housing prices, leading to asset impairment and reduced profit margins [15][16]. - The average gross margin for major real estate companies has decreased significantly, with some companies reporting net profit margins as low as 2.27% [16]. Broader Implications - The losses are not confined to private enterprises; state-owned and central enterprises are also affected, indicating a systemic issue within the real estate market [17]. - The perception of the real estate industry as a high-profit sector is changing, as many companies are now struggling to maintain profitability amid challenging market conditions [16][17].