Core Viewpoint - Poly Property (06049) announced the resignation of Mr. Yao Yucheng from his positions as Executive Director, General Manager, and member of the Strategic and Sustainable Development Committee, effective January 27, 2026 [1] Group 1: Management Changes - Mr. Wang Yingnan has been approved by the Board of Directors to serve as the General Manager, effective from January 27, 2026, until the current Board's term ends [1] - Mr. Wang has also been nominated by the controlling shareholder, Poly Development (600048), to be a candidate for Executive Director, pending approval at the upcoming extraordinary general meeting [1] - Mr. Yin Chao, one of the current Joint Company Secretaries, will no longer serve as the Board Secretary and Joint Company Secretary due to work adjustments [1] - Mr. Liu Long has been approved by the Board to take over as Board Secretary and Joint Company Secretary, effective January 27, 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Poly Property (06049.HK) announced the signing of the "Second Phase Parking Space Agency Framework Agreement (Renewal)" with Poly Development Holdings, effective for three years from the date of approval at the extraordinary general meeting [1] Group 1 - The agreement is set to commence from the date it is approved at the extraordinary general meeting [1] - The duration of the agreement is three years [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate bond market has gone through stages of risk accumulation, concentrated outbreak, and current orderly resolution and yield gaming. The recent Vanke bond extension event has led to significant fluctuations in the real - estate sector's valuation, prompting a re - examination of the industry's credit boundaries and pricing logic. The report backtracks the adjustment and repair patterns of the real - estate bond sector, explores potential stabilization signals in the current market adjustment, and outlines investment strategies [2][12]. - Currently, the bottom of credit expectations has been initially established, and the easing of pessimistic sentiment in the bond market provides conditions for the valuation repair of real - estate bonds. However, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds in the short term is low, and the spreads of different issuers may diverge, with high - quality issuers having stronger valuation repair momentum [5][43]. - The investment strategy focuses on 1 - 2 - year central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds to capitalize on valuation repair opportunities [6][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Past: Review of the Adjustment Characteristics of the Real - Estate Bond Sector after Public Opinion Shocks - **Stage One (2020)**: Industry risks gradually accumulated, with a few real - estate enterprises defaulting. The excess spread of real - estate bonds did not widen significantly, and the industry's credit risk continued to build up. The spill - over effect of the Yongmei default on real - estate bonds was not immediately apparent [3][13]. - **Stage Two (2021 - 2023)**: The number of defaulting real - estate enterprises increased significantly, and at the same time, policies to stabilize the real - estate market were intensively introduced. The excess spread of AA - rated real - estate bonds fluctuated widely at high levels, with the widening and narrowing cycles often around 5 months [3][14]. - **Stage Three (Since 2024)**: The industry's credit risk is being cleared in an orderly manner, with occasional local risks. Real - estate bonds with high coupon rates are attractive, becoming a target for institutions to seek excess returns in an "asset shortage" environment. The excess spread of real - estate bonds significantly narrowed during the alpha market of spread compression from April to August in 2024 and 2025, but then the credit spread widened [3][16]. 3.2 Current: Significant Adjustment of the Real - Estate Sector's Valuation since Vanke Announced the Proposed Extension 3.2.1 Weak Trading Sentiment and Significant Valuation Increases of Multiple Issuers in the Sector - Since Vanke announced the proposed extension of its bond, the trading prices of many real - estate enterprise bonds have significantly deviated from their valuations, and the valuation yields of issuers have generally increased. Some issuers, including central enterprises, local state - owned enterprises, mixed - ownership enterprises, and private enterprises, have been particularly affected. There is a risk of further increases in valuation yields [4][17][18]. 3.2.2 Signals of Stabilization in the Adjustment: Trading Sentiment, Issuance Situation, and Negative Public Opinion - **Trading sentiment**: It is becoming more moderate, with the trading deviation of real - estate bonds narrowing, and the proportion of TKN transactions stabilizing or rising, showing an initial trend [20][21]. - **Issuance situation**: The primary - market issuance of real - estate bonds has recovered, with the subscription multiple increasing, especially in the recent week [24]. - **Negative public opinion**: The market has become more "insensitive" to negative information. The Vanke event has fully fermented, and the risk of further transmission has narrowed [31]. 3.3 Outlook: Offensive Allocation Strategy after the Adjustment Stabilizes 3.3.1 Conditions for the Offensive Window: Comprehensive Judgment Based on Policies, Credit Risk Expectations, and Bond - Market Sentiment - **Policy aspect**: In the short term, the probability of a wide - range special support policy for central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds is low, but targeted relief policies for high - risk issuers can be expected. If favorable policies are introduced, the repair process of real - estate bonds may accelerate [5][35][43]. - **Credit risk expectation aspect**: The market's pessimistic sentiment towards the real - estate industry's credit risk has reached the bottom. The debt disposal process of Vanke is an important factor affecting market sentiment. With the confirmation of Vanke's disposal plan, the short - term credit expectation bottom of real - estate bonds may be established [37]. - **Bond - market sentiment aspect**: When the bond - market sentiment is good and institutions have a high demand for returns, the spread repair momentum of real - estate bonds is stronger; otherwise, there is greater pressure for spread widening [39]. 3.3.2 Investment Strategy: Focus on 1 - 2 - Year Central and Local State - Owned Enterprise Real - Estate Bonds to Capitalize on Valuation Repair - The core of the current strategy is to moderately extend from the previously conservative bonds with a maturity of less than 1 year to 1 - 2 - year medium - to high - grade central and local state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, which can provide more attractive coupon yields with relatively controllable risks [44]. - **Central enterprises**: They have strong shareholder backgrounds, sound finances, and are mainly located in core cities. Representative issuers include Poly Developments and Holdings Group Co., Ltd. and China Resources Land Limited. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 2.10% to 2.70%, and the average excess spread ranges from 35 to 85 BP [6][45]. - **Local state - owned enterprises**: They are located in regions with good economic development, have strong shareholder backgrounds, and perform well in terms of profitability and solvency. Representative issuers include Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Urban Construction and Development Co., Ltd. The 1 - 2 - year yield ranges from 1.95% to 2.0%, and the average excess spread ranges from 15 to 20 BP [6][45].

2026年1月27日，保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2026年第2次临时董事会会议审议通过了《关于开展商业不 动产REITs申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。为响应《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告》《关于 推动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展有关工作的通知》等政策号召，进一步构筑公司不动产经营专业能力，优化 资本结构，增强公司核心竞争力和可持续发展能力，公司拟以持有的商业不动产项目作为底层资产，开展商业不动产投资信托基 金申报发行工作。 本次发行商业不动产REITs未构成关联交易，未构成《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组。 拟选取广州保利中心项目、佛山保利水城项目为标的资产发行商业不动产REITs。广州保利中心项目是广州市天河区珠江新城写 字楼项目，由保利发展公司全资子公司广州市瑞咨企业管理有限公司持有；佛山保利水城项目是佛山市金融CBD购物中心项目， 由保利发展公司全资子公司佛山保城企业管理有限公司持有。 REITs速达，第一时间、第一视角，中国公募REITs实践与政策学习者。首个提倡以"战略思维"聚焦公募REITs的专业REITs信息传 ...

有利于公司拓宽融资渠道，有效盘活存量资产 公告显示，为进一步构筑公司不动产经营专业能力，优化资本结构，增强公司核心竞争力和可持续发展 能力，公司拟以持有的商业不动产项目作为底层资产，开展商业不动产投资信托基金(以下简称"商业不 动产REITs")申报发行工作。 本次选取广州保利中心项目、佛山保利水城项目为标的资产发行商业不动产REITs。其中，广州保利中 心项目是广州市天河区珠江新城写字楼项目，由公司全资子公司广州市瑞咨企业管理有限公司持有；佛 山保利水城项目是佛山市金融CBD购物中心项目，由公司全资子公司佛山保城企业管理有限公司持 有。 保利发展表示，发行商业不动产REITs有利于公司拓宽融资渠道，有效盘活存量资产，并进一步推动资 产运营提质增效，增强可持续发展动能。 1月27日晚间，保利发展（600048）发布公告称，2026年第2次临时董事会会议审议通过了《关于开展商 业不动产REITs申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。 ...

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2026-009 转债代码：110817 转债简称：保利定转 关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及 相关授权事项的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、商业不动产 REITs 基本情况 2026 年 1 月 27 日，保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"） 2026 年第 2 次临时董事会会议审议通过了《关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发 行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。 为响应《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告》《关于 推动不动产投资信托基金（REITs）市场高质量发展有关工作的通知》等政策号 召，进一步构筑公司不动产经营专业能力，优化资本结构，增强公司核心竞争力 和可持续发展能力，公司拟以持有的商业不动产项目作为底层资产，开展商业不 动产投资信托基金（以下简称"商业不动产 REITs"）申报发行工作。 本次发行商业不动产 REITs 未构成关联交易，未构成《上市公司重大资产重 组管理办法》规定的重大资产重组。 ...

证券代码：600048 证券简称：保利发展 公告编号：2026-008 转债代码：110817 转债简称：保利定转 2026 年第 2 次临时董事会决议公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2026 年第 2 次临时 董事会于 2026 年 1 月 27 日以通讯表决方式召开，会议召集人为公司董事长刘平 先生，会议应参加表决董事九名，实际参加表决董事九名。会议的召集和召开符 合《中华人民共和国公司法》《中华人民共和国证券法》及《公司章程》的有关 规定，会议审议通过了以下议案： 一、 董事会以 9 票同意、0 票反对、0 票弃权通过《关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授权事项的议案》。 保利发展控股集团股份有限公司 董事会 二〇二六年一月二十七日 具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露的《保利 发展控股集团股份有限公司关于开展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作及相关授 权事项的公告》（公告编号 2026-009）。 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 二手房成交回暖，《求是》发文提及城市更新 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/17-26/1/23） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.8%、深证成指上升 1.1%、创业板指下跌 0.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 0.6%、房地产（申万）上升 5.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣控(+15.8%)、 顺发恒能(+15.7%)、城投控股(+14.9%)、大悦城(+14.4%)、珠免集团(+12.6%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：城建发展(-6.0%)、中洲控股(-2.8%)、电子城(-2.1%)、特发服务(-1.9 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。整体来看，25 年公司业绩符合预期，四季度净利率同环比回升。投资端补货力 度上升2 成，资产质量不断优化。预计26-27 年归母净利润33、67 亿元。合理价值方面，按保利25Q3 归母净资产（扣永续债）0.6xPB 估计，对应合理价值9.67 元/股，维持公司"买入"评级。 风险提示。购房者信心不足，景气度或持续维持低位，公司销售表现不及预期；房价下行存在减值压 力；促销手段影响利润率。 销售均价提升，投资端积极进取。根据公司经营公告，销售层面，25年公司销售金额2530 亿元，同 比-22%，销售均价2.05 万元/平，同比+13.9%。拿地层面，25 年公司全口径拿地金额791 亿元，同比 +16%，拿地权益比88%维持不变。拿地金额/销售金额为31%，同比回升10pct，全口径拿地货值1537 亿 元，权益拿地货值1355 亿元，权益补货力度为68%，较24 年提升20pct。25 年公司共在25 个城市获取 52个项目，一线城市资源占比从24 年的74%降至25 年的48%，二线占比从24 年21%提升至43%，三四 线占比从24 年的4%提升至10%。 业绩符合预期。公司发布业 ...