导 读 ☉ 文／克而瑞研究中心 | | | | 2025年1-8月 · 中国房地产企业 | | 1 1 1 8 8 11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 榜TOP100 | | | 18 | 企业简称 | 操盘金额 (亿元) | 排名 | 企业简称 | 操盘面积 (万平方米) | | 1 | 保利发展 | 1667. 0 | 1 | 保利发展 | 821.7 | | 2 | 绿城中国 | 1563.0 | 2 | 绿城中国 | 733.0 | | 3 | 中海地产 | 1431.3 | 3 | 万科地产 | 652.5 | | 4 | 中海夏斯 | 1230. 4 | 4 | 中海地产 | 625.2 | | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 1178. 1 | 5 | 招商蛇口 | 524. 0 | | 6 | 万科地产 | 850. 3 | 6 | 来润置城 | 494.7 | | 7 | 建发房产 | 841.5 | 7 | 绿地控股 | 438.2 | | 8 | 中国金茂 | 621.4 | 8 | 龙湖集团 | 402. 1 | | 9 | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 31 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W35：本周新房成交同比-5.9%，上海优化调整购房政策 增持（维持） 行业走势 上海调整房地产限购、房贷利率、税收、公积金等政策，预计将助力外围 库存去化和提升改善性住房的需求。具体来看，1、新政定向放松了外环 外限购，对于符合购房条件的居民家庭（包含上海户籍和满足社保个税年 限的非上海户籍），在外环外购房不限套数。同时对成年单身人士按照居 民家庭执行住房限购政策。2、住房公积金最高贷款额度上浮，同时允许公 积金"又提又贷"。3、在利率定价机制安排方面不再区分首套住房和二套 住房。本次上海购房政策的调整在北京之后，整体力度符合我们预期，我 们预计将助力外围库存去化和提升改善性住房的需求。往后看，深圳购房 政策也有望跟进调整。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-0.1%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.77 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 16 名。 新房：本周 30个城市新房成交面积为181.0万平方米，环比提升14.3%， 同比下降 5.9%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 43 ...

VIEW 克而瑞研究中心 "每周研究精读" ， 聚焦宏观、行业、房企、土拍、产品、客需、榜单等多个研究 成果，与各界探讨行业运行逻辑、变数及未来趋势。 懋源地产以1 0 . 3亿元的底价竞得该地块。 点击标题阅读全文 观点 深圳楼市回归自住属性支撑一二手房成交"一枝独秀" 三四季度新房市场刚需中改需求还是有望持续释放，整体延续弱复苏走势；二手房市场或将延续高位震荡行情， 短期内以价换量仍是撬动销量的利器。 政策点评 | 上海8 2 5对比北京8 0 8：1年社保外环上车v s五环外不限购 上海限购放松+利率统一+税收优惠，调整覆盖面较北京更大。 快评｜上海刺激措施如期出台且力度大于预期 上海政策调整整体符合市场预期，对改善当前外环外市场成交压力作用重大。 土拍速递｜北京顺义区低密宅地底价成交，懋源地产在中央别墅区再落一子 研报 土地| 成交规模低位徘徊，宁波回购宅地完成降价再出让（8 . 1 8 - 8 . 2 4） 第3 4周土地供应规模环比大幅上升，成交建面维持低位，土拍热度也有所回落。本周重点城市监测供应土地建筑 面积为487万平方米，环比上升6 1%，成交建筑面积为2 8 0万平方米，环比下降6%。本 ...

中经记者 郭阳琛 张家振 上海报道 8月26日，上海市楼市新政实施首日，保利·海上印和金茂棠前两个外环外项目加推房源均实现"日光"。 就在前一天，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、房屋管理局等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政 策措施的通知》（以下简称"《通知》"），涉及调整住房限购政策、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信 贷以及完善个人住房房产税等多项政策。 楼市传统旺季"金九银十"将至，新政效应也正持续释放。保利发展是今年上海市销量冠军，其上海公司 相关负责人在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时表示，新政实施后，公司外环外项目整体访客量与成交量 均有显著提升。例如，光合TOD项目8月25日迎来20多组复访客户，并成交3套；位于浦东唐镇的保利 天奕也新增了6组认筹。 "此次上海市楼市新政不仅放宽了购房资格，还降低了首付和贷款成本。"上海易居房地产研究院副院长 严跃进分析认为，这将更好促进住房消费需求释放，尤其是对活跃外环外新房和二手房市场有明显利 好。上海市购房政策将更加宽松，结合即将到来的"金九银十"，购房的最佳窗口期已开启，将实实在在 促进市场交易活跃。 精准松绑外环外限购 此次出台的上海楼市新政，最受关注的便是松 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中指研究院发文称，2025年1-8月，TOP100企业拿地总额6056亿元，同比增长28.0%，增幅较1-7月缩窄6.3个百分点。8月，土地市场热 度虽在，但相比7月有所下降。拿地企业仍以央国企为主，拿地金额前十企业中8家为央国企，部分民企亦有一定投资强度，如滨江集团(002244.SZ)拿地金 额位居前十，邦泰集团、大华集团等也进入拿地金额前二十。 图：2022年1月-2025年8月TOP100房企累计拿地总额及同比 从新增货值来看，绿城中国(03900)、保利发展(600048.SH)和中海地产位列前三。2025年1-8月，绿城中国以1144亿元新增货值占据榜单第一，保利发展新 增货值规模为996亿元，位列第二，中海地产以923亿元新增货值位列第三。TOP10企业2025年1-8月新增货值总额7312亿元，TOP100企业的43.6%，新增货 值门槛为59亿元。 重点区域及城市房企拿地 | | 2025年1-8月各城市群房地产企业 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 拿地金额TOPT0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has seen a recovery in transactions since Q4 2024, driven by favorable policies, but many new land acquisitions are facing challenges in sales and absorption rates as policy benefits wane [1][2][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Since Q4 2024, the real estate market has experienced a rebound in transaction volumes, particularly in major cities, influenced by the "926 Housing Policy" [7]. - Despite the initial recovery, many newly acquired lands are struggling with low absorption rates, leading some "land king" projects to delay the application for pre-sale permits [1][2][10]. - In 2025, several projects launched by a top 10 real estate company reported absorption rates below 20%, with only a few projects achieving around 30% [4]. Group 2: Sales Performance - A project managed by a marketing head named Wang Xiao achieved a sales rate of approximately 30%, which is considered the best among new launches in 2025 [4]. - The sales performance varies significantly within the same city, with core area projects performing better than those in suburban regions, which are experiencing sluggish sales [4][5]. - In Beijing, two projects launched in May 2025 had net signing rates of only 25% and 11%, indicating a broader trend of poor sales performance across various projects [4]. Group 3: Land Acquisition Trends - Major state-owned enterprises have been aggressively acquiring land in key urban areas, with significant increases in land prices, including several plots sold for over 10 million yuan per square meter [7]. - From January to July 2025, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 34% year-on-year increase in land acquisition spending, while their sales revenue decreased by 13% [7]. - The trend of focusing on core urban areas for land acquisition has become more pronounced, with companies like China Overseas and Greentown leading the charge [8][9]. Group 4: Project Success Factors - The success of a real estate project is influenced by multiple factors, including location, product quality, and market demand, with location being a critical determinant [12][14]. - Projects that align closely with market demand and customer preferences tend to perform better, highlighting the importance of understanding buyer psychology and needs [13][14]. - The disparity in sales performance among similar projects underscores the necessity for precise market positioning and product differentiation [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for both the real estate and building materials sectors [1][2] Core Insights - Recent policies in Beijing and Shanghai have relaxed housing purchase restrictions, which is expected to boost market confidence and sales [2][26] - The overall performance of listed real estate companies remains under pressure, with a focus on the recovery of their balance sheets [2][28] - The building materials sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, particularly in cement and glass fiber, driven by urban renewal projects and seasonal construction activities [3][44] Real Estate Sector Summary - The real estate sector has seen a 0.97% increase over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.25 percentage points [14] - The sector's performance is influenced by recent policy changes aimed at stabilizing the market and improving sales data [2][26] - Key companies to watch include Poly Developments, Binjiang Group, and China Merchants Shekou, which are focusing on first- and second-tier cities [2][28] Building Materials Sector Summary - The building materials sector has increased by 2.86% over the past two weeks, with a year-to-date increase of 19.28% [29] - Cement prices are stabilizing, with a national average price of 316 RMB per ton, while inventory levels are gradually decreasing [33][44] - The glass fiber industry is showing signs of structural recovery, benefiting from demand in wind power and electronics sectors [3][45] Company Performance Highlights - In the consumer building materials segment, leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby have shown significant profit recovery, with Sanke Tree's net profit increasing by 109.30% year-on-year [48] - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages, such as Beixin Building Materials and Sanke Tree [48]

Macroeconomic Insights - The average import tax rate in the U.S. increased by 6.6 percentage points compared to the end of 2024, which is lower than market expectations[5] - If the average import tax rate rises by 10% this year, it could push the PCE year-on-year growth rate to 3.1% and the core PCE to 3.4% under stable demand conditions[7] Consumer and Business Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore approximately 63% of the tariff costs, while consumers accounted for less than 40%[6] - The consumer price sensitivity may lead businesses to absorb a significant portion of tariff costs, affecting pricing strategies[6] Durable Goods and Construction Sector - Domestic demand for construction remains weak, with steel and glass prices declining, while cement prices have rebounded due to enhanced production management[9] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased, with a year-on-year growth of 8% in daily sales from August 11 to August 17[10] Insurance Sector Performance - The insurance industry reported a total premium income of CNY 420.85 billion from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.8%[14] - Life insurance premiums reached CNY 258.61 billion in July, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 33.5%[15] Steel Industry Outlook - China's crude steel production from January to July 2025 was 594 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in production capacity[25] - The steel industry is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to a combination of demand recovery and supply-side reductions[27]

曾经的三巨头现在怎么样了？ 毫无疑问这几个都是实打实的大央企，也是当前这个环境下，最有优势的一个群体，原因是什么，这个不必多说，懂得都懂。 市面上对保利重回第一有种看法——从万科，到恒大，再到碧桂园，这些劲敌都黯然失色了，所以保利发展上来了，如果行业风向没变，肯定也轮不到保 利。直白一点也就是，你保利之所以能到第一，是靠同行衬托，自己没什么真本事。 这种看法多少是带了点恩怨了，当然肯定也有不少的偏见。 退一千步，一万步说，保利要真是阿斗，为什么只有保利到第一了？ 恒大的神话灭了，资本市场也再也不会有恒大的身影，它已经不止是一家企业，而是全行业通用的负面符号，大家都很清楚，它也很难再回来了；碧桂园 还在求生的路上，日子很不好过；万科也还在水深火热里，卖身求存，卖卖卖，借借借…… 从恒万碧到保中华，这一切变化的是如此之快，很多人来不及反应，就已经错过了时代的列车，教训很深刻！ 现在大家都明白了，不能低估行业调整的力量，更不要低估行业阵痛的影响，能活到现在，必然都有过人之处。 现在的三巨头又如何？ 三巨头已经换了面貌，保利发展、中海地产、华润置地（保中华）已经掌握了绝对的话语权。（保利发展、中海地产、华润置地下文分 ...

沪指8月28日上涨1.14%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有22个，涨幅居前的行业为通信、电子，涨幅 分别为7.14%、5.53%。房地产行业今日上涨1.14%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、农林牧渔，跌幅分别为 0.81%、0.73%。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出443.43亿元，今日有5个行业主力资金净流入，电子行业主力资 金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨5.53%，全天净流入资金105.53亿元，其次是通信行业，日涨幅为 7.14%，净流入资金为49.98亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有26个，计算机行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金110.07亿元，其 次是医药生物行业，净流出资金为78.92亿元，净流出资金较多的还有电力设备、机械设备、汽车等行 业。 房地产行业今日上涨1.14%，全天主力资金净流入10.19亿元，该行业所属的个股共100只，今日上涨的 有51只，涨停的有2只；下跌的有38只，跌停的有2只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的 个股有42只，其中，净流入资金超千万元的有13只，净流入资金居首的是张江高科，今日净流入资金 8.49亿元，紧随其后的是万通发展、天保基建，净流入资 ...