有分析指出，目前以央国企为代表的行业中坚力量，开工工作整体积极有序。同时部分好地段的好房源 项目，依然有较多购房者认购，市场信心也增加。 此外，各地仍在进一步做好"保交房"工作。尤其是近期各地对于融资协调机制有关的金融政策将落实展 期制度，这也有助于稳定"白名单"制度中的融资工作，有助于更好确保"保交房"等工作的开展。 1月19日，国家统计局发布2025年全国房地产市场基本情况。数据显示，全国房地产开发投资82788亿 元，同比下降17.2%；新建商品房销售面积88101万平方米，同比下降8.7%；新建商品房销售额83937亿 元，同比下降12.6%。各项指标显示，房地产行业仍处于深度调整过程中，在动态变化中逐步筑底。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进在接受媒体采访时表示，要客观看到开发投资指标带来的压力，这 也与市场深度调整有关，尤其是企业端数量和投资情况都有深度调整。 行业深度调整仍在持续 国家统计局数据显示，2025年，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积659890万平方米，同比下降10.0%。其 中，住宅施工面积460123万平方米，下降10.3%。 房屋新开工面积58770万平方米，下降20.4%。其中，住 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The monitored enterprises acquired a total of 30 land parcels with a total transaction amount of 14.5 billion yuan [4] - Brand real estate companies completed 4 financing transactions, totaling 8.44 billion yuan [4] Land Acquisition - In Shanghai, Yuexiu Property secured a residential land parcel in Pudong New District for 4.57 billion yuan, with a floor price of 38,035 yuan/m² [8] - In Huzhou, a residential land parcel was acquired by Deqing County Transportation Engineering Construction Co. for 323 million yuan, with a floor price of 5,954 yuan/m² [9] - In Dalian, a joint venture between Poly and JinDi acquired a site for 736 million yuan, with a floor price of 7,454 yuan/m² [10] - In Wenzhou, Zhongnan Industry secured a residential land parcel for 403 million yuan, with a floor price of 12,582 yuan/m² [11] Investment Financing - Xinjing New Town Development Group successfully issued 440 million yuan in medium-term notes with a 5-year term at an interest rate of 2.7% [12][13] - Lianfa Group issued 250 million yuan in green medium-term notes with a 3+3 year term at an interest rate of 2.6% [15] - Xinda Real Estate received approval for a company bond issuance of 5.75 billion yuan [16] - Shanghai Construction Group successfully issued 2 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a 5+N year term at an interest rate of 2.9% [17] Corporate Dynamics - China Overseas Development signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Sun Hung Kai Properties to deepen collaboration in project construction and other areas [18]

封面图源：社交平台（2025年7月景象） "目前计划先启动安置房部分的重建工程。" 1月22日，福州三江理想城项目单位一位内部人士向《每日经济新闻》记者确认。 福州三江理想城是一项安居工程，刚竣工就发生了倾斜沉降，开发商及工程方等11名责任人已于2025年7月被判刑重罚。时隔半年，项目传来最新进展。 福州市投资项目在线审批监管平台1月21日披露的一组申报项目信息显示：云锦公馆（一期）、云锦公馆（二期）取得县级权限内企业境内投资项目备 案，批准结果显示为"办结（通过）"。 云锦公馆是福州三江理想城的小区备案名，这处位于福建闽江之畔的楼盘，由保利发展、碧桂园和世茂集团联合开发。凭借较低的入市价格，开盘2小时 就售罄。 然而，2021年收房后，业主们发现承重梁开裂、道路地基下沉、门窗扭曲变形等情况，后经有关单位和机构检测，三江理想城多栋房源被鉴定为D级危 房，业主陆续完成退房程序，而前期涉及棚改的居民一直未完成回迁安置。 "日光盘"变危房 福州市投资项目在线审批监管平台显示，云锦公馆（一期）、云锦公馆（二期）项目单位为福州世茂世睿置业有限公司，项目备案已由福州市仓山区发改 局批准。天眼查显示，福州世茂世睿置业有限公 ...

"目前计划先启动安置房部分的重建工程。" 1月22日，福州三江理想城项目单位一位内部人士向《每日经济新闻》记者确认。 福州三江理想城是一项安居工程，刚竣工就发生了倾斜沉降，开发商及工程方等11名责任人已于2025年7月被判刑重罚。时隔半年，项目传来最新进展。 福州市投资项目在线审批监管平台1月21日披露的一组申报项目信息显示：云锦公馆（一期）、云锦公馆（二期）取得县级权限内企业境内投资项目备 案，批准结果显示为"办结（通过）"。 云锦公馆是福州三江理想城的小区备案名，这处位于福建闽江之畔的楼盘，由保利发展、碧桂园和世茂集团联合开发。凭借较低的入市价格，开盘2小时 就售罄。 然而，2021年收房后，业主们发现承重梁开裂、道路地基下沉、门窗扭曲变形等情况，后经有关单位和机构检测，三江理想城多栋房源被鉴定为D级危 房，业主陆续完成退房程序，而前期涉及棚改的居民一直未完成回迁安置。 "日光盘"变危房 拿地当年，三江理想城就上市442套新房，均价17200元/m²。从入市到正式开盘，仅3个月有效蓄客就达到1200组；开盘当天仅2小时即售罄，成为福州楼 市的热门"日光盘"之一。 2021年5月，三江理想城业主开始收房，起 ...

每经记者｜刘颂辉 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈梦妤 封面图源：社交平台（2025年7月景象） "目前计划先启动安置房部分的重建工程。" 1月22日，福州三江理想城项目单位一位内部人士向《每日经济新闻》记者确认。 福州三江理想城是一项安居工程，刚竣工就发生了倾斜沉降，开发商及工程方等11名责任人已于2025年7月被判刑重罚。时隔半年，项目传来最新进展。 福州市投资项目在线审批监管平台1月21日披露的一组申报项目信息显示：云锦公馆（一期）、云锦公馆（二期）取得县级权限内企业境内投资项目备 案，批准结果显示为"办结（通过）"。 云锦公馆是福州三江理想城的小区备案名，这处位于福建闽江之畔的楼盘，由保利发展、碧桂园和世茂集团联合开发。凭借较低的入市价格，开盘2小时 就售罄。 然而，2021年收房后，业主们发现承重梁开裂、道路地基下沉、门窗扭曲变形等情况，后经有关单位和机构检测，三江理想城多栋房源被鉴定为D级危 房，业主陆续完成退房程序，而前期涉及棚改的居民一直未完成回迁安置。 "日光盘"变危房 福州市投资项目在线审批监管平台显示，云锦公馆（一期）、云锦公馆（二期）项目单位为福州世茂世睿置业有限公司，项目备案已由福州市仓山区发改 ...