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研报掘金丨方正证券:维持保利发展“推荐”评级,土地储备丰富,现金流充足
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2026-01-22 06:26
Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 1.026 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 79.49% due to market fluctuations and significant asset impairment losses [1] Financial Performance - The decline in profit is primarily influenced by two factors: a decrease in gross profit margin from real estate project turnover and an anticipated total asset impairment and credit impairment loss of about 6.9 billion yuan, which is expected to reduce net profit by approximately 4.2 billion yuan [1] - Excluding the impairment factors, the company's net profit for the year is projected to be around 5.2 billion yuan, with an estimated net profit of about 3.3 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, indicating an improvement in quarterly operations [1] Market Position and Financial Health - Despite a year-on-year decline in sales and land acquisition, the company maintains its leading position in the industry [1] - Financing costs remain low, highlighting the advantages of state-owned enterprise credit, and the company has ample liquidity reserves [1] - As a leading state-owned developer, the company has rich land reserves and strong cash flow [1]
保利发展涨2.00%,成交额5.78亿元,主力资金净流入5550.28万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 02:39
Core Viewpoint - Poly Developments has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in stock price recently but a significant decline in net profit year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 22, Poly Developments' stock price increased by 2.00%, reaching 6.63 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 578 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.74% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has risen by 8.69%, with a 3.76% increase over the last five trading days and a 5.74% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 10.65% over the past 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Poly Developments reported a revenue of 173.72 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.93 billion CNY, down 75.31% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 64.98 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 12.27 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Poly Developments reached 247,700, an increase of 13.96% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per person decreased by 12.25% to 48,319 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, China Securities Finance Corporation holds 357 million shares, unchanged from the previous period, while Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited reduced its holdings by 333 million shares to 181 million shares [2].
31家公司业绩快报抢先看
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-22 01:55
根据业绩披露规则,年报披露季部分上市公司会提前发布业绩预告或业绩快报,而且相对于业绩预告, 业绩快报的准确性更强。截至1月22日,共31家公司发布了2025年业绩快报。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示,公布业绩快报公司中,营业收入最高的是保利发展,去年实现营业收入 3082.61亿元,同比增长-1.09%;其次是兴业银行、中信银行,去年营业收入分别为2127.41亿元、 2124.75亿元。增幅方面,21家公司营业收入同比增长,增幅最高的是思源电气,去年实现营业收入 212.05亿元,同比增长37.18%;其次是中信证券、北鼎股份,营业收入同比分别增长28.75%、26.04%。 利润方面,公布业绩快报公司中,去年全部实现盈利,净利润在百亿元以上的有8家,净利润最高的是 兴业银行,去年实现净利润774.69亿元 ,同比增长0.34%,其次是中信银行、浦发银行,净利润分别为 706.18亿元、500.17亿元。从增幅来看,净利润同比增长的有19家,增幅最大的是泉阳泉,去年共实现 净利润0.15亿元,同比增长147.89%,其次是北鼎股份、思源电气,净利润同比分别增长59.05%、 54.35%;净利润同比下降的有12 ...
保利发展(600048):稳健底色不改 融资与布局彰显央企优势
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-22 00:25
2025 年1 月16 日,保利发展披露2025 年度向特定对象发行可转换公司债券募集说明书预案,拟募集资 金总额不超过50 亿元,全部用于上海、杭州、广州等城市的9 个房地产开发项目建设。该可转债期限为 6 年。 销售拿地虽同比下滑,但仍处于龙头地位。2025 年全年,保利发展以全口径销售额2530 亿元蝉联克而 瑞百强房企销售榜首位,尽管同比下降21.67%,但在行业整体承压背景下仍稳居第一。2025 年公司权 益拿地面积415 万方,位列行业第一;权益拿地金额671 亿元,排名行业第二。 融资成本维持低位,央企信用优势凸显,流动性储备充裕。2025 年下半年,公司成功发行了合计60 亿 元中票,发行利率在1.85%-2.21%之间,2025 年上半年公司发行85 亿元6 年期现金类定向可转债及57 亿 元公司债与中期票据。 保利发展发布公告,公司2025 年全年预计实现归母净利润约10.26 亿元,同比下降79.49%,利润指标同 比下降主要受两方面因素影响:一是行业市场波动导致房地产项目结转毛利率同比下滑;二是公司拟计 提资产减值损失及信用减值损失合计约69 亿元,预计减少归母净利润约42 亿元。若剔 ...
【房地产】2025全年核心30城宅地成交建面同比-9%,成交均价同比+6%——土地市场月度跟踪报告(2025年12月)(何缅南/韦勇强)
光大证券研究· 2026-01-21 23:07
Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 3.4% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities and 72% of the total transaction value [7] Summary by Sections Residential Land Transactions - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The average transaction price was CNY 5,605 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4] - For first-tier cities, the supply of residential land was 10.77 million square meters, down 31.2% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 9.66 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [4] - In second-tier cities, the supply was 149 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 125 million square meters, down 1.0% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 6,420 per square meter, up 3.2% year-on-year [4] - In third-tier cities, the supply was 215 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 185 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 3,509 per square meter, down 1.6% year-on-year [4] New Land Reserves - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of area were China Overseas Land & Investment (5.11 million square meters), Poly Developments (4.56 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.32 million square meters) [5] Core 30 Cities Performance - In December 2025, the core 30 cities saw 558 land transactions, with a total area of 39.32 million square meters, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 231.8 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year [6] - For the entire year of 2025, the core 30 cities had 1,970 land transactions, with a total area of 137 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 1.29 trillion, down 2.8% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 8.1%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]
开源证券晨会纪要-20260121
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 15:27
Group 1: Industry Insights - The silicon photonics industry is experiencing clear trends, with accelerated development in CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) technology. NVIDIA's recent announcements at CES 2026 highlight advancements in supercomputing and optical devices, indicating a growing demand for CPO and related technologies [6][11][12] - The Vera Rubin cabinet features significant technological advancements, including 20 trillion transistors and enhanced memory capacities, which are expected to drive demand for CPO, optical modules, and liquid cooling solutions [6][11][12] - The CPO industry is evolving rapidly, with potential growth in demand for silicon photonics components, including optical engines and related manufacturing processes. Key sectors benefiting from this trend include optical interconnects and passive components [13][14] Group 2: Company Updates - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. (吉宏股份) - Ji Hong Co., Ltd. forecasts a 50%-60% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, with expected net profit ranging from 273 to 291 million yuan. The Q4 2025 net profit is projected to be between 57 to 75 million yuan, reflecting strong performance [7][16] - The company's growth is driven by its dual strategy of packaging and cross-border social e-commerce, leveraging AI technology to enhance operational efficiency and expand market reach [17][18] Group 3: Company Updates - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health (美丽田园医疗健康) - Beautiful Pastoral Medical Health anticipates a net profit growth of no less than 34% for 2025, with expected revenue of at least 3 billion yuan, reflecting a strong resilience and growth potential [8][20] - The company is focusing on a dual growth strategy of internal development and external acquisitions, successfully integrating brands to enhance its market position and operational capabilities [21][22] Group 4: Company Updates - Poly Developments (保利发展) - Poly Developments expects a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with net profit significantly impacted by impairment provisions. However, the company maintains a leading sales position and continues to optimize its land reserve structure [9][25][26] - The company projects a net profit of 1.03 billion yuan for 2025, down 79.5% year-on-year, primarily due to increased impairment losses. Despite this, the company remains optimistic about future performance as low-cost project completions are expected to drive recovery [25][26][27]
国务院国资委:7户央企14名领导人员职务任免





中国能源报· 2026-01-21 12:48
国务院国资委网站1月2 1日消息,7户中央企业14名领导人员职务任免。 中国盐业集团有限公司、中国广核集团有限公司、中国航空油料集团有限公司 申兆军任中国盐业集团有限公司党委书记、董事长,免去其中国航空油料集团有限公司党 委书记、党委常委、董事长、董事职务。 廖龙辉任中国广核集团有限公司党委常委、纪委书记,免去其中国航空油料集团有限公司 党委常委、纪委书记职务。 免去李耀强的中国盐业集团有限公司党委书记、董事长、董事职务,退休。 中国保利集团有限公司 祖斌任中国保利集团有限公司党委书记、董事长。 中国物流集团有限公司 中国中煤能源集团有限公司 聘任赵永峰、高立刚为中国中煤能源集团有限公司外部董事,兰春杰、洪水坤不再担任中 国中煤能源集团有限公司外部董事职务。 中国交通建设集团有限公司 聘任高春雷、李跃平、贾世瑞、樊启祥为中国交通建设集团有限公司外部董事,刘茂勋不 再担任中国交通建设集团有限公司外部董事职务。 来源:国务院国资委网站 End 欢迎分享给你的朋友! 出品 | 中国能源报(c n e n e rg y) 责编丨李慧颖 免去梁伟华的中国物流集团有限公司党委常委职务,不再担任中国物流集团有限公司副总 经 ...
行稳致远,保利发展在行业变局中保持坚守与开拓
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2026-01-21 09:43
在当前房地产行业转型的关键时期,作为行业龙头央企的保利发展(600048.SH),正在通过积极主动 的调整与持续的品质深耕,在复杂环境中巩固市场地位的同时,为行业的平稳健康发展提供有益实践。 在过去2025年,保利发展通过前瞻性的去库存战略,筑牢了财务安全底线;凭借稳健的基本盘和畅通的 融资渠道,确保了经营大局的稳定;更以持续领先的销售业绩和深入人心的"好房子"产品实践,证明了 以品质驱动发展的长期主义价值。 尽管转型之路必然伴随阵痛,利润率短期承压,但保利发展坚持聚焦核心城市、深耕产品品质、拓展经 营服务、优化财务结构,契合了行业未来健康可持续发展的方向,这不仅为自身在"不动产时代"谋得了 先机,也为整个行业探索新发展模式、实现平稳健康发展,提供了具有参考价值的样本。 率先应对行业变局,坚定去库存筑牢安全底线 2025年,房地产行业进入以"止跌回稳"、风险化解与模式重构为核心的新发展阶段。当市场供需关系发 生根本性变化,消化存量、优化增量成为行业共识与政策发力重点。 在这一行业背景下,如何平衡短期生存与长期发展,防范系统性风险,成为所有市场参与者面临的严峻 考验。 面对行业趋势的快速转变,保利发展展现出敏锐 ...
支持居民改善需求,销售环比回升
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-01-21 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in sales on a month-on-month basis, supported by policies aimed at improving housing conditions for residents [7] - The overall market performance is weak, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 3.52% compared to a 0.57% drop in the CSI 300 Index, resulting in a relative return of -2.95% [4][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of financially stable real estate companies, suggesting a focus on leading firms that can effectively navigate market fluctuations [7] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 3.52%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.57%, indicating underperformance of the sector relative to the broader market [4][12] Industry Fundamentals - For the week of January 9-15, 2026, the total number of new homes sold in 38 key cities was 21,770 units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7% but a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. The total area sold was 201.4 million square meters, down 25.3% year-on-year but up 12.8% month-on-month [5][22] - In the same week, the total number of second-hand homes sold in 16 key cities was 18,991 units, with a year-on-year decline of 11.5% and a month-on-month increase of 17.2%. The total area sold was 188 million square meters, down 11.6% year-on-year but up 18.3% month-on-month [5][40] Land Market Analysis - During the week of January 5-11, 2026, land supply was 2,198.8 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, with an average supply price of 858 yuan per square meter, down 42% year-on-year. Land transactions totaled 1,503.1 million square meters, down 41.4% year-on-year, with a transaction value of 18.91 billion yuan, down 49.5% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on financially sound leading real estate companies such as Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, which are expected to perform well in the current policy environment [7]
28家公司业绩快报抢先看
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2026-01-21 07:09
Core Insights - The article discusses the performance forecasts and reports of 28 companies that released their earnings reports as of January 21, 2025, highlighting the accuracy of earnings quick reports compared to forecasts [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Poly Development reported the highest revenue at 308.26 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.09% [1][3] - CITIC Bank and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank followed with revenues of 212.48 billion yuan and 173.96 billion yuan, respectively [1][3] - Among the 19 companies with revenue growth, the highest increase was seen in Siyuan Electric, which achieved 21.21 billion yuan in revenue, marking a 37.18% year-on-year growth [1][2] Group 2: Profit Performance - All companies that released earnings quick reports reported profits, with seven companies achieving net profits exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] - CITIC Bank led with a net profit of 70.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.98% [2][3] - The largest net profit growth was recorded by Quanyuan Spring, with a net profit of 0.15 billion yuan, up 147.89% year-on-year [2]