2026 年 02 月 04 日 《目前板块业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期 或将逐渐过去 -- 房地产行业 2025 年业 绩预告分析及前瞻》 2026/02/01 《首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，优质商业 地产迎来价值重估――首批商业不动产 REITs 上报点评》 2026/01/31 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 房地产融资政策进入友好期, REITs 和定增将 开辟股权融资渠道 -房地产行业融资事件点评 申万宏源研究微信服务 2）１月２7 日，保利发展公告拟以广州保利中心项目和佛山保利水城项目为底层资产，开 O 展商业不动产 REITs 申报发行工作；1 月 29 日至 30 日，上海证券交易所连续受理 8 单商 业不动产 REITs 申报; 2 月 3 日,深交所首单商业不动产 REITs 正式申报。 3）2 月 3 日，华发股份发布 2026 年度向特定对象 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2026 年 02 月 04 日 房地产融资政策进入友好期，REITs 和定增将 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——房地产行业融资事件点评 《目前板块业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期 或将逐渐过去——房地产行业 2025 年业 绩预告分析及前瞻》 2026/02/01 《首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，优质商业 地产迎来价值重估——首批商业不动产 REITs 上报点评》 2026/01/31 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 联系人 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 房地产 陈鹏 A0230521110002 chenpeng@swsresearch.com 事件： 点评： 开辟股权融资渠道 ⚫ 1）26 年 1 月 28 日，中房报报道，多家房地产企业已不再被监管部门要求每月上报"三 道红线"相关数据。 ⚫ 2）1 月 27 日，保利发展公告拟 ...

证券日报网讯2月3日，保利发展（600048）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，2025年在行业持续调整 下，公司积极调整面对外部变化，全年销售规模保持在行业头部位置。公司将持续坚定推进销售去化、 保障财务稳健，并审慎积极评估新增投资，确保公司长期健康发展。未来公司管理层将持续尽职履责， 全力带领公司应对外部波动和挑战。 ...

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

信用债周策略 20260203 地产债情绪修复到哪里? glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 03 日 [Table_Author] | 1 本周地产热点事件 3 | | --- | | 1.1 三道红线政策逐步退场 3 | | 1.2 2026 年以来地产相关政策梳理 3 | | 2 地产债情绪修复到哪里？ 5 | | 2.1 近期地产债市场成交情况 5 | | 2.2 热门产业类地产主体交易情绪修复到哪里？ 6 | | 3 投资策略 9 | | 4 一级市场跟踪 16 | | 5 二级市场观察 19 | | 5.1 二级市场成交的"量" 19 | | 5.2 二级市场成交的"价" 21 | | 6 风险提示 23 | | 插图目录 24 | 三道红线政策逐步退场：2026 年 1 月 28 日，据财联社等多家媒体报道，监管部 门不再硬性要求房企每月上报"三条红线"指标。"三条红线" 政策回顾：2020 年 8 月，住房城乡建设部、人民银行在北京召开重点房地产企业座谈会。会议指出， 人民银行、住房城乡建设部会同相关部门在前期广泛征求意见的基础上，形成了 重点房地产企业资金监测和融资管理规则， ...

Core Viewpoint - The top 100 real estate companies in China are experiencing a significant reshuffling in their rankings as of January 2026, with a notable decline in overall sales figures compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies reached 190.52 billion yuan, representing an 18.9% year-on-year decline [2]. - Only three companies achieved sales exceeding 10 billion yuan in January, a decrease of two compared to the same period last year [2]. - The number of companies with sales over 5 billion yuan increased to ten, up by two from the previous year [2]. Group 2: Ranking Changes - The top 10 rankings saw significant changes, with Poly Developments, China Overseas, and China Resources remaining in the top four, while Vanke dropped from fifth to ninth place [3]. - China Travel Investment emerged as a major dark horse, jumping from outside the top 40 to fifth place [3]. - China Jinmao rose from thirteenth to seventh, indicating intensified competition within the top tier [3]. Group 3: Performance of Private Enterprises - Among the 32 companies that experienced year-on-year growth in January, six private enterprises had growth rates exceeding 100% [3]. - Bangtai Group and China Construction Yipin entered the top 20 in sales, benefiting from strategic investments during market lows [3]. Group 4: New Entrants and Market Dynamics - Seven new companies entered the top 100 list in January, with four being small to medium-sized private enterprises [4]. - State-owned enterprises continue to dominate land acquisition, with companies like Yuexiu Property and China Resources maintaining strong investment levels [4]. Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - The policy environment is shifting towards stabilizing expectations, with measures such as extended tax rebates and loan extensions being implemented [4]. - The market is expected to see a gradual release of demand in March, driven by promotional activities from real estate companies before the Spring Festival [5].

2026年新年伊始，房企销售业绩取得"开门红"了吗？ 1月31日，中指研究院、克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心、亿翰智库三大机构公布百强房企销售业绩。据中指 研究院数据，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%，相比去年全年的降幅基本持平。 值得关注的是，在房企的"开局战"中，TOP10的房企排名发生了变化，其中，中旅投资成为最大的黑马，在1月以 92.8亿元的销售额位列百强房企第5位。 同比下降背后：去年1月基数较高 | 8 | 建发房产 | 65.0亿元 | | --- | --- | --- | | 9 | 万科 | 55.8亿元 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 52.9亿元 | | 11 | 越秀地产 | 45.0亿元 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 38.0亿元 | | 13 | 中国铁建 | 37.4亿元 | | 14 | 绿地图股 | 36.3亿元 | | 15 | 中建东孚 | 35.2亿元 | | 16 | 中交房地产 | 34.0亿元 | | 17 | 大华集团 | 32.1亿元 | | 18 | 华发股份 | 28.0亿元 | | 19 | 碧桂园 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the imminent issuance of the first batch of commercial real estate REITs, with significant potential for revitalizing existing assets [1]. - The expansion of the public REITs market from infrastructure to commercial real estate marks a new phase in China's REITs development, with regulatory support aimed at enhancing issuance efficiency and encouraging asset integration [3]. - The report anticipates that commercial real estate REITs will accelerate in 2026, driven by policy support and the performance of initial projects, while emphasizing the importance of asset quality and operational capabilities for long-term success [3]. Summary by Sections Commercial Real Estate REITs Overview - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs is set to raise a total of approximately 314.7 billion yuan, covering various commercial formats such as hotels, office buildings, and shopping centers [3]. - The report details eight commercial real estate REITs that have been submitted for approval, with expected fundraising sizes ranging from 17.03 billion yuan to 74.7 billion yuan [5][6]. Specific REITs Details - **Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate REIT**: Expected to raise 40.02 billion yuan, with underlying assets including two office buildings in Shanghai [5]. - **Huazhong Jinjiang REIT**: Expected to raise 17.03 billion yuan, focusing on 21 hotels across 18 cities [5]. - **CICC Vipshop REIT**: Expected to raise 74.7 billion yuan, with underlying assets in Zhengzhou and Harbin [5]. - **Huazhong Lujiazui REIT**: Expected to raise 28.10 billion yuan, with assets in Shanghai [6]. - **Huazhong Poly Development REIT**: Expected to raise 20.93 billion yuan, with assets in Guangzhou and Foshan [6]. - **Huazhong Yintai REIT**: Expected to raise 42.785 billion yuan, focusing on the Hefei Yintai Center [6]. - **Huazhong CapitaLand REIT**: Expected to raise 40.54 billion yuan, with assets in Shenzhen and Mianyang [6]. - **Guotai Haitong Sazhi Chuan REIT**: Expected to raise 50.64 billion yuan, focusing on the Sazhi Chuan outlet in Xi'an [6]. Market Potential and Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the substantial existing stock of commercial real estate in China, which provides a solid foundation for the development of commercial real estate REITs [3]. - The retail sector alone has over 9,000 concentrated commercial properties, while the hotel sector has approximately 1.764 million rooms, indicating a strong demand for asset revitalization through REITs [3]. - The report suggests that companies with mature and stable assets, such as Poly Development and Meiyue Commercial, are likely to have a competitive advantage in the REITs market [3].

"短期来看，传统淡季效应仍将主导市场节奏，供需双方均进入短暂休整期。"中指研究院上海企业常务 副总经理程宇表示，但随着前期出让的优质地块逐渐进入供应序列，市场对年后的"小阳春"行情仍然抱 有预期。程宇认为，在整体市场承压的背景下，更需坚守产品主义，聚焦核心地段的价值挖掘。在政策 与市场的双轮驱动下，上海楼市有望在调整中逐步寻得新的平衡点。 项目层面，高端改善盘成为上海新房市场的绝对主力。1月上海商品住宅销售金额TOP20项目合计销售 108.2亿元，其中安澜上海以21.8亿元登顶，陆家嘴太古源・源邸（17.8亿元）、澐启滨江（11.6亿元） 分列二三位。销售面积榜单上，安澜上海以1.2万平方米领跑，陆家嘴太古源・源邸（1.0万平方米）、 澐启滨江（0.8万平方米）紧随其后。销售套数方面，澐启滨江以49套居首，安澜上海与永泰三里城以 47套并列第二。 土地市场则呈现理性筑底态势。1月，上海共推出各类用地规划建筑面积28.37万平方米，成交规划建筑 面积165.17万平方米，其中成交涉宅用地规划建筑面积32.75万平方米。值得注意的是，1月进行的2025 年度第十批次和第十一批次土拍中，共出让5宗涉宅用地，均以底 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the real estate market, highlighting the significant debut of commercial real estate REITs, with the first batch of applications exceeding 32.1 billion RMB, accounting for 14% of the existing C-REITs market [5] - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy marks a pivotal shift, indicating a return to orderly market development and improved financing channels for real estate companies [16][20] - The report notes a strong year-on-year increase in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with new home transactions in 50 cities up 3.3% week-on-week and 37.2% year-on-year [5][9] Group 1: Central Policies - The cancellation of the "three red lines" policy allows for a more market-oriented development of the real estate sector, which had previously constrained financing for weaker firms [16] - The central government is actively managing expectations and stabilizing the policy environment to facilitate a turning point in the real estate cycle [16] Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions saw a week-on-week increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 37.2%, reflecting a recovery from last year's low base due to the Spring Festival [5][9] - Second-hand home transactions also showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, driven by a favorable comparison to last year's figures [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the new home supply has improved, with a week-on-week increase of 34.5%, which is unusual before the Spring Festival, suggesting increased developer confidence [5] - The second-hand market remains robust, with a year-on-year increase in visits and transactions, indicating sustained demand [5] Group 4: Land Market Performance - The land market showed weaker performance, with total land sales in 300 cities amounting to 12.7 billion RMB, down 20% week-on-week and 69% year-on-year [5] - The report highlights a supply of 7.93 million square meters, with a land absorption rate of 51%, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [5] Group 5: Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with strong investment fundamentals and low valuations, such as China Jinmao and China Overseas, are leading the sector [5] - The property management sector also performed well, with a 2.6% increase, outperforming the Hang Seng Index [5] Group 6: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs composite return index rose by 0.36%, with 41 out of 78 REITs showing gains, particularly in the renewable energy and highway sectors [5]