Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

智通财经记者 | 王婷婷 智通财经编辑 | 李慎 2025年的上海土拍市场频出"地王"。 10月20日，上海推出年内第八批次土拍，共将6宗地块摆上拍卖桌，总出让面积19.16万平方米、总起始价184.95亿元，吸引来中海、保利发展、保利置业、 中铁建、金茂、越秀、星狮、招商蛇口等20余家房企参拍。 中海、招商、越秀积极抢地 核心地段的热门地块，依然不愁卖。 本批次出让的6宗地块中，溢价出让的分别是徐汇滨江地块、静安苏河湾地块和杨浦东外滩地块。其中，最受关注的为徐汇区WS5单元188N-I-21地块，由中 海地产以44.65亿元总价竞得，楼面价约14.85万元/平方米，溢价率10.0%。 据智通财经了解，该地块的土地出让面积20044.45平方米，规划建筑面积30066.68平方米，容积率1.5，地上建筑限高30米；地块起始价为40.59亿元，起始楼 面价135000元/平方米。该起始楼面价刷新上海涉宅用地推出楼面价TOP2位置，仅次于徐汇区XH-02(TPL)单元051-11地块。 土拍现场，地块共吸引来中海、保利发展、招商蛇口&西岸开发集团&滨江集团共3家竞买人参与现场竞价。这是杭州民营房企滨江阔别上海许久 ...

保利未来大都汇位于未来科学城东区，是地铁17号线未来科学城站上盖的TOD区域级商业体项目，其 中的商业部分即保利时光里。项目将以"新生活方式社交聚变场"的核心定位，深度融合未来科学城的生 态禀赋，构建 "骑行+"商业生态，引入优质品牌与IP，打造主题赛事、音乐节等多元活动。 新京报讯 据"投资昌平"微信公众号消息，近日，昌平未来科学城北京保利时光里项目亮相发布，将于 2026年开业运行，打造滨水公园式商业综合体。 ...

今年以来房企拿地持续聚焦核心城市，叠加核心城市推地节奏前置并加大优质地块供应力度，带动前三季度300城住 宅用地出让金同比增长12%，但成交面积仍下降8%。三季度以来，随着一二线核心城市优质地块推出节奏放缓，土 地市场有所降温，三季度300城住宅用地平均溢价率降至5.8%，成交面积及出让金同比分别下降13%和10%。城市 集中度方面，一二线城市土地出让金占比仍居高位，前三季度TOP20城市住宅用地出让金占全国比重为61%，但在 核心城市土地推出放缓下，占比较上半年下降7个百分点。 趋势来看，四季度通常是一年推地高峰，近几来四季度推出规模占全年比例在四成左右，预计市场供应将有所增 加，但土拍热度仍取决于新房销售能否持续好转，预计短期核心城市优质地块竞争态势或将延续，但多数城市或继 续低温运行。对于房企拿地而言，仍需聚焦核心城市、核心地段，但应避免拿"高价地"，以确保新获取项目的安全 性、流动性和盈利性。 300城：三季度核心城市推地放缓，住宅用地成交面积同比降幅扩大，出让金 同比由增转降 图：300城各类用地和住宅用地季度推出、成交规划建面及同比变化 图：300城各类用地和住宅用地季度出让金及同比变化 今年以来 ...

与过往多次土拍一样，上海2025年度第八批次土拍同样吸引了包括中海、保利发展、越秀地产、招商蛇 口等20余家品牌房企参与竞拍。在"好房子"新政落地与户型限制放开的政策背景下，此次土拍既彰显了 核心城市稀缺地块的强抗跌性，也折射出当前房地产市场深度调整期的理性回归与格局分化。 核心板块溢价 本次土拍呈现鲜明的"冷热分化"特征，6宗地块的成交表现随区位价值梯度清晰划分。在总出让建筑面 积40.87万平方米的土地中，住宅部分约30.51万平方米，起始总价184.95亿元，最终成交额较起始价上 浮7.47%，整体溢价水平控制在理性区间。 同时呈现几个亮点：一是，徐汇滨江宅地、静安商住地、杨浦区宅地均刷新板块单价新高。二是，滨江 集团时隔十年的返场尝试更成为市场焦点。不过，滨江集团选择联手招商蛇口、西岸开发参拍徐汇滨江 地块，未有斩获。滨江集团相关人士向记者表示："后续还是会继续参与上海土拍。"三是，招商蛇口携 手越秀地产、星狮地产及瑞城房产拿下静安区苏河湾绝版商住地，溢价率为9.03%；杨浦东外滩地块由 保利置业以总价26.12亿元竞得，成交楼面价6.996万元/平方米，溢价率14.69%。这表明房企在拿地时， 主要 ...

万商俱乐部创始人杨泽轩认为，当前商业面临同质化严重与消费需求升级的双重挑战。北京保利时光里 依托独特的滨水生态场景、文艺气质的内容运营及"骑行+"等差异化主题，才能突破区域商业困局。 北京商报讯（记者 刘卓澜）10月20日，北京商报记者获悉，保利"时光里"商业产品线正式亮相北京， 将以"滨水公园式商业"形态，打造京北区域独具特色的"新生活方式社交聚变场"。据介绍，北京保利时 光里作为保利未来大都汇的商业部分，亦是保利商旅"时光里"品牌首次进入北京市场，该项目将以"新 生活方式社交聚变场"的核心定位，引入优质品牌与IP、主题赛事、音乐节等多元活动，打造为京北微 度假目的地与区域级商业新地标。 作为京北发展核心，未来科学城自2009年创建以来，已形成"两区一心"空间布局与"两谷一园"产业格 局，汇聚大量高知人才与高品质家庭，消费潜力雄厚。保利商旅商业事业部副总经理叶柯介绍，未来科 学城周边超80万常住人口，同时，项目深度链接昌平音乐节、温榆河公园、北京山姆会员商店（昌平 店）等文商旅资源，通过融合溪流乐园、骑行空间、多元餐饮与复合社交场地，为区域消费升级与生活 方式焕新提供强大助力。 保利发展北京公司总经理李红亮 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that recent events suggest short-term volatility in the Hong Kong stock market may not have ended, but the long-term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - Economic data, US-China tariff news, US tech earnings, and the Fourth Plenary Session are expected to influence trading patterns and styles in the Hong Kong market [1][2] - The technology sector is facing increased volatility risks, with US tech earnings impacting the trading rhythm of Chinese tech stocks [1][2] Group 2 - The report highlights that the US stock market showed resilience despite concerns over US-China tensions and credit worries, with the Nasdaq leading gains at 2.1% [1][4] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance suggests a likelihood of maintaining the current policy path, with a potential rate cut in October being the optimal solution [1][5] - The report notes that the average win rate for October over the past decade is low, while the advantages of November and December are relatively prominent [1][23] Group 3 - The report discusses the ongoing US government shutdown, which has entered its third week, potentially exacerbating negative impacts on the economy [3] - Concerns over credit quality in regional banks have emerged, but these are viewed as isolated incidents rather than indicative of a broader liquidity crisis [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US-China trade relations, as further escalation could negatively impact the US economy and inflation risks [3][4] Group 4 - The report notes that developed markets saw an increase of 1.4% while emerging markets declined by 0.3% during the week [4][12] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 8.0%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 4.0%, with public utilities leading sector gains [4][12] - The report highlights significant inflows into financials and non-essential consumer sectors, while the information technology sector experienced outflows [4][12] Group 5 - The report indicates that global stock ETFs saw a net inflow of $446.43 billion, with the US stock ETFs leading at $231.7 billion [7][49] - The technology sector was the top recipient of inflows among global stock ETFs, while the communication sector experienced the most significant outflows [7][51] - The report also notes that institutional investors marginally increased their holdings in gold, with significant inflows into major gold ETFs [6][54]

南方财经10月20日电，上海八批次土拍最热门地块之一——徐汇区WS5单元188N-I-21地块被中海地产以44.65亿元拿下，溢价率10%。地块为 纯宅地，总建筑面积约为3万平方米，容积率1.5，成交楼板价楼板价148503元/平方米，刷新徐汇滨江板块单价纪录。该地块由中海地产，保 利发展，招商蛇口、西岸开发、滨江集团联合体三家参与竞拍。值得关注的是，民营房企"一哥"滨江集团上一次在上海公开拿地是2015年联手 平安不动产，以34.65亿元拿下上海宝山区大场镇祁连社区地块，该项目即后来的滨江·公园壹号。此次参拍徐汇滨江地块无功而返，滨江集团 相关人士对记者表示："后续我们应该还是会继续参与上海土拍的。"（21世纪经济报道） ...

近半月内，央国企开发商融资有所提速。 《每日经济新闻》记者梳理发现，10月8日以来，中海地产、华润置地、保利发展、华发股份先后发布融资计划，累计规模超130亿元。 10月8日，中海地产在上海证券交易所披露了拟发行30亿元中期票据的计划，分为10亿元和20亿元两个品种，募集资金将全部用于北京、深圳等多地21个全 资项目的建设。 10月10日，华润置地在深圳证券交易所发布公告称，计划发行25亿元中期票据，基础发行规模20亿元，期限5年，资金用于偿还存量债务。 此次融资潮背后是行业融资结构的深度调整。据克而瑞数据，1～9月65家典型房企的累计融资总量为3171.5亿元，同比减少28%。在融资结构方面，9月房 企境内债权融资271.23亿元，环比增长5.6%，同比减少39.9%。 | 分类 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 境内债券融资 | 4.09% | 3.50% | 3. 46% | 2.91% | | | 境外债券融资 | 5.99% | 6.61% | 8.04% | 4. 18% | | ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 地产股阿尔法的四个维度 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 虽然周期反转仍需时间和条件，但新房市场在价格补涨和产品迭代的双重逻辑下存在结构性机 会，给予部分优质房企阿尔法。1）从海内外历史经验来看，优质地产股的见底时间远早于大周 期见底，但趋势性上涨有赖于周期反转。2）尽管整体房价仍有压力，但累积下跌幅度总有极限， 房企老库存的预亏并非完全不可测，尤其是老库存城市能级相对偏高的部分房企，存货减值计 提也提供较大缓冲。3）结构性市场下，房企近年来新增土储的去化和盈利相对有保障，具备相 对可靠的价值创造能力。4）部分优质房企不只是开发。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘义 侯兆熔 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 地产股阿尔法的四个维度 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心 ...