住建部推进新型城市更新，销售环比上升 ——20251017 房地产行业周报 房地产 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 10 月 19 日 | 评级： | 增持（维持） | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：由子沛 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740523020005 | | 保利发展 | 7.75 | 1.01 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 7.7 | 18.5 | 16.8 | 15.2 | 14.4 | 买入 | | Email：youzp@zts.com.cn | ...

Economic Data - China will release key economic indicators including GDP, real estate investment, and retail sales on October 20, with expectations of a slight decline in GDP growth rate for Q3 [7][8] - The expected year-on-year decline in national real estate development investment is -12.9% [3] - The industrial added value for September is anticipated to show a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [3] Events - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China will hold its fourth plenary session from October 20 to 23 in Beijing [9] - The 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee's 18th meeting will take place from October 24 to 28 in Beijing [9] - The Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation conference on October 21 to discuss stablecoins, AI, and tokenization [9] Industry Conferences - The China Solid-State Battery Conference will be held from October 22 to 24 in Hefei, with participation from companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech [12] - The Low Altitude Economy Innovation Application and Standardization Promotion Conference is scheduled for October 24 in Beijing [12] - The 2025 Satellite Application Conference will take place from October 25 to 27 in Beijing [12] - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to hold a technology day on October 24, potentially unveiling a robot [13] Earnings Reports - Major companies set to report earnings include Tesla, IBM, Intel, Coca-Cola, and Procter & Gamble, with a focus on Tesla's Full Self-Driving progress and Intel's AI chip orders [14][15] - In China, companies like CATL, iFlytek, China Unicom, China Mobile, and China Telecom will also release their latest earnings reports [16] - CATL's solid-state battery technology roadmap may trigger a reevaluation of the value in the new energy industry if clear mass production signals are released [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in September, driven primarily by the sales of improved housing options, with 62.5% of the 24 reported companies experiencing a month-on-month increase in sales [1][2] - Differentiated pricing strategies have played a crucial role, with smaller units attracting buyers through lower prices while improved housing options achieve premium pricing [1][7] Sales Performance - Among the 24 companies, leading firms like Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment reported sales exceeding 20 billion yuan in September, indicating robust growth [2][3] - Mid-sized companies also saw significant sales increases, with Yuexiu Property achieving a 23.54% month-on-month growth in September [2][3] Market Dynamics - The recovery pace varies among companies, with some experiencing substantial month-on-month growth due to low sales bases in previous months, such as Ronshine China with a 132.31% increase [3] - The concentration of land acquisition in core cities has led to a 13% year-on-year increase in residential land sales across 300 cities [4][6] Land Acquisition Trends - Companies are focusing on optimizing land reserves, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments planned for 2024 [4][5] - The competitive bidding for prime land parcels, such as the one in Beijing, reflects the ongoing demand for quality locations [6] Product Quality and Market Appeal - The introduction of high-quality housing standards has enhanced market attractiveness, with improved housing options meeting the evolving demands of buyers [7][8] - The sales of improved housing units have surged, with a notable increase in the proportion of larger units sold in major cities [8][9]

政策"暖风"与房地产市场传统销售旺季相遇，北京楼市"金九银十"热度回升。 北京市住建委数据显示，10月1日至10月8日，北京市新建商品住宅网签418套，日均网签量较去年"十 一"假期增长53%；二手住宅网签148套，日均网签量较去年"十一"假期增长93%。 "好房子"政策显效 "此前楼市新政的效果在9月逐步体现，部分楼盘到访量有所好转，部分小区二手房带看量也有所增 加。"中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶表示，"银十"开局恰逢国庆中秋"双节"假期，9月底开发商推 盘节奏已有所加快，叠加国庆中秋假期期间房企促销力度加大，推出特价房源、赠送车位、家装补贴以 及"保价"等一系列营销活动，核心城市或优质项目热度较节前有所回温。 新房市场热度攀升 品质楼盘表现亮眼 国庆中秋假期期间，多个新盘项目到访量与签约量均呈现普遍性增长，部分热门项目假期日均到访客户 量突破百组。多家房企在国庆中秋"双节"期间收获颇丰，头部企业的销售业绩尤为突出。 根据部分房企发布的热销海报，保利北京区域采取"7盘联动"策略，凭借多项目协同发力，在假期内实 现8.3亿元销售额，其中保利朝观天珺、嘉华天珺等项目均贡献了可观业绩，销售额分别为1.8亿元和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Three leading state-owned real estate companies have announced financing plans with a total issuance of medium-term notes amounting to 8.5 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Financing Plans - China Overseas Land & Investment plans to issue medium-term notes with a maximum amount of 3 billion yuan, consisting of two varieties: an initial issuance of 1 billion yuan for the first variety and 2 billion yuan for the second variety [3]. - China Resources Land has announced a maximum issuance scale of 2.5 billion yuan, with a base issuance of 2 billion yuan and a maturity period of 5 years [3]. - Poly Developments has stated a maximum issuance amount of 3 billion yuan, with the first variety capped at 500 million yuan and the second variety at 2.5 billion yuan, allowing for flexible allocation between the two varieties [3]. Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The proceeds from the issuances by China Resources Land and Poly Developments will be used to repay previous financing debts [3]. - China Overseas Land & Investment will allocate the funds for construction costs across 21 projects in cities including Beijing, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Tianjin, with a 100% ownership stake in these projects [3]. - All three companies have committed that the funds raised will not be diverted for other uses, including land payments, acquisitions, or financing for third- and fourth-tier real estate projects [3][4]. Group 3: Regulatory Compliance - The companies have pledged that the raised funds will be strictly used for the purposes disclosed in the fundraising documents, with no diversion allowed [4]. - A dedicated fund supervision model will be implemented, utilizing entrusted payment methods along with corresponding fund supervision agreements [4]. Group 4: Industry Financing Trends - According to recent data from the China Index Academy, the total bond financing for real estate companies from January to August 2025 reached 380.89 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.8% [4]. - In August 2025, the total bond financing for the real estate sector was 55.31 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% [4]. - The financing structure indicates that credit bond financing in the real estate sector amounted to 229.09 billion yuan, down 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 60.1% of the total [4].

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed signs of stabilization and recovery, driven primarily by the demand for improved housing options [1][9] - A total of 24 real estate companies reported sales data, with 15 companies, accounting for 62.5%, experiencing a month-on-month increase in sales [1] - Differentiated pricing strategies have played a crucial role, with smaller units attracting buyers through competitive pricing, while improved housing options achieved premium pricing [1][9] Sales Performance - Among the 24 companies, Poly Developments and China Overseas Development led with sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in September, at 205.31 billion yuan and 201.73 billion yuan respectively [3] - Other notable companies include China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou, with sales of 176 billion yuan and 166.98 billion yuan [3] - The sales growth for Poly Developments and China Overseas has been consistent, with both companies reporting month-on-month increases for three consecutive months [3] Market Dynamics - Different tiers of companies are experiencing varied recovery rates, with top-tier firms benefiting from scale advantages and mid-tier firms leveraging popular projects to boost sales [3][4] - Companies like R&F Properties saw a significant month-on-month increase of 132.31% in September due to a low sales base in August [4] - The overall market recovery is supported by strong land acquisition strategies focused on first- and second-tier cities, with a reported 13% year-on-year increase in land sales revenue across 300 cities [5] Land Acquisition Trends - Real estate companies are increasingly concentrating their land acquisitions in core cities, with top 20 cities accounting for 61% of the total land sales revenue [5] - China Resources Land acquired 18 new projects in the first half of 2025, with a total investment of 32.28 billion yuan, primarily in first- and second-tier cities [5] - The supply of quality land has increased, providing more options for developers, as seen in Beijing's recent addition of 22 new real estate projects [6] Product Quality and Market Appeal - The introduction of high-quality housing standards has enhanced market attractiveness, with improved housing options meeting the needs of buyers [7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities have further stimulated demand, allowing for greater flexibility in purchasing [7] - The sales of improved housing options have surged, with a notable increase in the proportion of larger units sold in major cities [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a total land acquisition amount of 605.6 billion yuan for the top 100 companies, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.0% [12][13]. Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount for key real estate companies increased by 28.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][12]. - High-value land parcels are primarily concentrated in Shenzhen and the Yangtze River Delta region, indicating a trend towards premium land acquisition in these areas [6][28]. - The top three companies in terms of new value added are Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Land & Investment, with new values of 114.4 billion yuan, 99.6 billion yuan, and 92.3 billion yuan respectively [9][16]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition - The top 100 real estate companies acquired a total of 605.6 billion yuan in land from January to August 2025, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [12][13]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 10 companies accounted for 43.6% of the total new value added in the same period [16]. Market Trends - The report highlights that many previously unsold and stored land parcels are being re-offered through regulatory adjustments, which have gained market acceptance [17]. - The regulatory adjustments mainly involve lowering the plot ratio and commercial ratio, thereby increasing the attractiveness of the land parcels [17][19]. Regional Insights - The Yangtze River Delta region leads in land acquisition, with the top 10 companies acquiring 182.4 billion yuan, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with 89.6 billion yuan [21]. - In major cities, state-owned and local government enterprises remain the primary players in land acquisition, with private enterprises supplementing in key areas [25].

Group 1 - The core transaction of Poly Developments on October 15 involved a block trade of 260,000 shares, amounting to 2.0462 million yuan, with a transaction price of 7.87 yuan per share [1][3] - The buyer was Huatai Securities Co., Ltd. headquarters, while the seller was CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Shanghai branch [1][3] - In the last three months, Poly Developments has recorded three block trades with a total transaction value of 8.525 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The closing price of Poly Developments on the day of the transaction was 7.87 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.13%, with a daily turnover rate of 1.15% and a total trading volume of 1.076 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds for the day was 53.8575 million yuan, while the stock has seen a cumulative increase of 0.13% over the past five days, with a total net outflow of 3.171 million yuan [2] - The latest margin financing balance for Poly Developments is 3.295 billion yuan, which has decreased by 285 million yuan over the past five days, representing a decline of 7.97% [3]

Core Insights - The Poly Flour Factory project in Guangzhou is set to receive its pre-sale permit, marking a significant event in the local real estate market [1][2] - This project is viewed as a benchmark for Guangzhou's housing market, with its strategic location and high-end residential potential [1][4] Project Overview - The Poly Flour Factory site was acquired for a total price of 11.755 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 33.35%, translating to a floor price of approximately 66,700 yuan per square meter, ranking second in Guangzhou land auctions [1][4] - The project is designed to cater to high-end residential needs, featuring large units along the riverfront, aiming to compete with existing luxury projects in the area [1][5] Market Context - Despite the project's strong fundamentals, the Guangzhou real estate market is currently in a consolidation phase, raising questions about the project's ability to stimulate market activity [2][6] - Recent data indicates a decline in property transactions during the holiday season, with a 31% drop in subscribed area compared to the previous year, although performance was better than average [8] Competitive Landscape - The target clientele for the Poly Flour Factory project includes high-net-worth individuals from across the country, positioning it against properties in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [5][7] - The pricing strategy for the project is projected to be between 120,000 to 150,000 yuan per square meter, which is competitive compared to existing properties in the Zhujiang New Town area [5][8] Future Outlook - The outcome of the Poly Flour Factory project is expected to have a direct impact on the Guangzhou real estate market, influencing future land acquisition decisions by other developers [7][9] - The overall sentiment in the market suggests cautious optimism, with expectations for a potential recovery in the real estate sector by next year [9]