[Table_Industry] 磷矿景气支撑业绩，高分红凸显投资价值 云天化（600096.SH）/化工 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2024 年 09 月 08 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-----------------|--------|------------------------------------|--------|--------| | [Table_ 评级： Invest 买入（ ] 首次覆盖） \n市场价格： 20.29 元 | [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] \n指标 | \n2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 75,313 | 69,060 | 70,217 | 71,732 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [1][2]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable growth in performance, with a notable integrated advantage in its operations. The revenue for the first half of 2024 was 31.993 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 6.10% year-on-year to 2.841 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company maintains a strong operational strategy focused on high load, quick turnover, and risk mitigation, which has resulted in stable production and sales of its main products [1]. - The company benefits from a robust supply chain and strategic procurement advantages, leading to a decrease in the cost of major raw materials such as sulfur and coal, effectively offsetting adverse price fluctuations [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 16.61%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 18.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.88% [1]. - The company plans to produce and sell 2.5449 million tons of urea, 4.5415 million tons of ammonium phosphate, and 1.9251 million tons of compound fertilizer in 2024 [1][2]. - The company’s total fertilizer production capacity is 10 million tons per year, making it one of the largest fertilizer producers in China [2]. Industry Insights - The company is one of the largest phosphate mining enterprises in China, with a current phosphate ore reserve of nearly 800 million tons and an annual production capacity of 14.5 million tons [2]. - The domestic phosphate industry is characterized by high concentration and integration levels, with a stable supply-demand relationship expected to continue in the coming years [1][2]. - The market price for phosphate ore is expected to remain high, with overall demand maintaining stability [1][2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 31.993 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.841 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 18.136 billion yuan, down 6.19% year-on-year but up 30.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.382 billion yuan, up 25.01% year-on-year but down 5.32% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] - The main products, including ammonium phosphate, compound fertilizer, urea, and others, showed stable production and sales, with ammonium phosphate prices remaining at a high level. The average prices for the main products were 3,436 yuan/ton for ammonium phosphate, 2,985 yuan/ton for compound fertilizer, and 2,176 yuan/ton for urea, with sales volumes showing growth for most products [2][4] - The company has good financial control, maintaining low rates for sales, management, and finance at 1.14%, 1.89%, and 0.87% respectively, with a decrease in financial costs and optimized debt structure [3][4] - The phosphate rock market remains strong, with an average price of 1,011 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock. The company has significant phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons and a self-sufficiency rate in phosphate rock production, benefiting from its integrated mining and fertilizer operations [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.966 billion yuan, 5.249 billion yuan, and 5.563 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.71 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 3.03 yuan, indicating a favorable outlook for the company as a leading player in the domestic phosphate chemical industry [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 31.993 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.16% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.841 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% year-on-year. Q2 2024 saw a revenue of 18.136 billion yuan, down 6.19% year-on-year but up 30.88% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.382 billion yuan, up 25.01% year-on-year [2][4] Product Pricing and Sales - The average prices for the main products were 3,436 yuan/ton for ammonium phosphate, 2,985 yuan/ton for compound fertilizer, and 2,176 yuan/ton for urea, with sales volumes showing growth for most products. The company’s core product, ammonium phosphate, maintained a relatively high price level, and sales increased as demand is expected to rise with the upcoming autumn fertilization season [2][4] Financial Management - The company maintained low sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 1.14%, 1.89%, and 0.87% respectively, with a focus on controlling financial costs and optimizing the debt structure [3][4] Market Outlook - The phosphate rock market continues to be robust, with an average price of 1,011 yuan/ton for 30% grade phosphate rock. The company has substantial phosphate reserves and a high self-sufficiency rate in phosphate rock production, positioning it well to benefit from the industry's high-quality development initiatives [4] Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.966 billion yuan, 5.249 billion yuan, and 5.563 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.71 yuan, 2.86 yuan, and 3.03 yuan, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunnan Yuntianhua [3][6][11] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the recurring net profit increased by 8.23% year-on-year, driven by higher production and sales volumes, lower raw material costs, effective expense control, and improved investment income from associated companies [2][8][11] - The company achieved total operating income of 31.993 billion yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, with a net profit of 2.841 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.10% [8][11] - The gross sales margin for the first half of 2024 was 16.61%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net sales margin was 10.71%, up by 1.25 percentage points [8][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 73.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.668 billion yuan, and an EPS of 2.54 yuan [4][7] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 14.7% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [4][7] - The target price is set at 27.94 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times for 2024 [4][11] Business Segment Analysis - Ammonium phosphate segment: Production of 2.4846 million tonnes, sales of 2.3778 million tonnes, and operating income of 8.171 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.34% [4][9] - Composite fertilizer segment: Production of 974,300 tonnes, sales of 987,900 tonnes, and operating income of 2.948 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.45% [4][9] - Urea segment: Production of 1.3484 million tonnes, sales of 1.4246 million tonnes, and operating income of 3.100 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.60% [4][9] Strategic Positioning - The company leverages its own phosphorus resources to create a product matrix that includes phosphorus ore, chemical fertilizers, and fine phosphorus chemicals [10] - It has developed high value-added products such as inorganic fluorides and fluoropolymers, utilizing by-products from its phosphorus production [10]

证券代码：600096 证券简称：云天化 公告编号：临 2024-057 二、本次说明会投资者提出的主要问题及公司回复情况 （一）预征集问题回复 云南云天化股份有限公司 关于 2024 年半年度业绩说明会召开情况的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 云南云天化股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 8 月 20 日（星期二）15:00-16:00 在上海证券交易所上证路演中心 （http://roadshow.sseinfo.com），通过网络文字互动的方式召开了 2024 年半年度业绩说明会。2024 年 8 月 13 日，公司已在上海证券交易所 网站（www.sse.com.cn）披露了《关于召开 2024 年半年度业绩说明会 的公告》（详见公司公告：临 2024-056），现将此次业绩说明会召开 的有关情况公告如下： 一、说明会基本情况 2024 年 8 月 20 日，公司董事长段文瀚先生，党委书记、董事、 总经理崔周全先生，董事、财务总监、董事会秘书钟德红先生，独立 董事罗焕塔先生出席了本次 ...

2024 年 08 月 14 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 李娟廷 S0350122090037 lijt03@ghzq.com.cn 研究所： 最近一年走势 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/08/14 表现 1M 3M 12M 云天化 -2.6% -0.7% 19.5% 沪深 300 -4.7% -9.5% -14.2% | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------------| | 市场数据 | 2024/08/14 | | 当前价格（元） | 20.24 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 14.09-22.10 | | 总市值（百万） | 37,126.81 | | 流通市值（百万） | 37,126.81 | | 总股本（万股） | 183,432.87 | | 流通股本（万股） | 183,432.87 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 540.46 | | 近 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 云天化（600096） 公司点评 上半年业绩同比稳定增长，磷化工一体化优势明显 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 事件描述 2024 年 8 月 13 日，云天化发布 2024 年半年度报告，公司上半年实 现营业收入 319.93 亿元，同比-9.16%；营业成本为 266.79 亿元，同 比-10.75%；实现归母净利润 28.41 亿元，同比+6.10%；实现扣非归 母净利润 27.90 亿元，同比+8.23%；基本每股收益为 1.55 元，同比 +6.10%。 ⚫ 主要产品价格下降导致营收同比小幅下降，盈利水平保持稳定 主要贸易产品价格有所下降，适当规模缩减导致营收小幅下降。2024 年 Q2，公司实现营收 181.36 亿元，同比-6.19%，环比+30.88%。主 要基于主营产品价格有所下降；其中，磷酸一铵、磷酸二铵、复合肥、 黄磷的 Q2 市场均价分别为 3023.66、3632.79、2831.74、22202.19 元/吨，环比下降 2.04%、1.02、4.22%、4.01%；因此，公司适当进 行了规模缩减，导致营收同比有所下降。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yuntianhua (600096 SH) [2][7] Core Views - Yuntianhua's H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue declining 9 2% YoY to RMB 31 993 billion but net profit increasing 6 1% YoY to RMB 2 841 billion [1] - The company benefits from its leading position in the phosphorus chemical industry, with high phosphorus ore prices sustaining profitability [1] - Yuntianhua's compound fertilizer sales volume surged 43 3% YoY in H1 2024, driven by stable single fertilizer prices and increased demand for water-soluble compound fertilizers [1] - The acquisition of an additional 18 6% stake in Yunnan Phosphate Group is expected to increase annual net profit by RMB 210 million [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 gross margin improved by 1 5 percentage points to 16 6%, supported by lower raw material costs [1] - Sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased slightly, while financial expense ratio decreased by 0 13 percentage points [1] - The company's phosphorus ore reserves stand at nearly 800 million tons, with annual mining capacity of 14 5 million tons [1] Industry Outlook - Domestic phosphorus ore prices remained high in H1 2024, averaging RMB 1,054 per ton, similar to H1 2023 levels [1] - Yuntianhua's integrated upstream resource advantage positions it well to benefit from the sustained high phosphorus ore prices [1] Valuation and Forecast - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting net profits of RMB 4 941 billion, RMB 5 262 billion, and RMB 5 507 billion for 2024-2026 respectively [2] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to be 6 1x, 8 1x, 7 4x, 7 0x, and 6 7x from 2022 to 2026 [3] - ROE is forecasted to decline gradually from 36 8% in 2022 to 19 0% in 2026 [3]

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [3][4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in the first half of the year, with stable profitability from its main products, including fertilizers and polyformaldehyde. The "mineralization integration" and full industry chain operational advantages have contributed to this success [1][4]. - The company is well-positioned in the phosphate chemical industry, benefiting from tight supply conditions and strong resource security. Its phosphate reserves are nearly 800 million tons, with an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, ranking among the top in the country [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in performance due to continuous improvements in operational efficiency, procurement integration, and optimized debt structure [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter, the company achieved revenue of 18.136 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.19% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 30.88%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.382 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.01% [1][4]. - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 31.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.841 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.10% [4][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the first half of 2024 was 1.55 yuan, with a projected EPS of 2.57, 2.68, and 2.80 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7]. Market Data - As of August 13, 2024, the closing price of the company's stock was 20.00 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 22.10 yuan and a low of 14.09 yuan. The circulating A-shares market capitalization is 36.687 billion yuan [2][3]. - The company has a return on equity (ROE) of 15.29% and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio projected at 7.7, 7.3, and 7.0 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][7].