Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" rating for the express delivery industry, marking it as the first rating issued [1]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant growth in business volume, with a year-on-year increase of 12.3% in August 2025, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 7.1% and social consumer retail sales at 3.4% [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages in express delivery continues, contributing to rapid growth in business volume [5][8]. - The average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.37 yuan in August 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 7.16%, although there was a slight month-on-month increase of 0.13% [5][16]. - The report anticipates a price recovery in the express delivery sector due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts within the industry [5][25]. Summary by Sections Industry Volume and Price - The express delivery industry maintains high growth, with business volume growth outpacing both online retail and overall retail sales [5][8]. - The trend of smaller packages continues, with the average value of a single express package decreasing to 63.0 yuan, down 4.62% year-on-year [13][15]. - The competitive pricing environment has led to a decline in average revenue per package, but there are expectations for stabilization in pricing due to industry adjustments [5][16]. Company Volume and Price - In August 2025, the business volume growth rates for major companies were as follows: YTO Express at +11.06%, Yunda at +8.72%, Shentong at +10.0%, and SF Express at +34.80%, with SF Express outperforming the industry average [20]. - The average revenue per package for these companies showed significant declines, particularly for SF Express at -15.32% year-on-year, indicating a substantial impact from changes in business structure [24][28].

r H In 20 ri 1 0 圆通速递 TEL:96554 E 200- d m 寄快递 选圆通 - 1 -- 4 B 8 0 res 8 e 14 ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The implementation of mutual port fees between China and the US is expected to impact over 40% of shipping capacity, with Chinese shipping companies being the most affected [1][20][21] - Different shipping segments will experience varying degrees of impact, with oil and dry bulk sectors facing greater challenges compared to container shipping [1][20] - Short-term price fluctuations may occur due to initial chaos from the new policies, but overall, the impact on freight rates is expected to be limited [1][20] Group 2: Aviation Industry - Domestic passenger flight volumes have decreased slightly post-National Day, but overall traffic remains above 2019 levels, indicating a recovery trend [2][33] - The average domestic ticket price is stable, with a slight year-on-year increase, suggesting a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the aviation market [2][34] - The aviation sector is expected to see continued recovery in profitability as the supply-demand gap narrows, with recommendations to invest in major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines [2][34] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy has led to price increases across approximately 90% of express delivery volumes in China, indicating a shift towards more sustainable competition [2][43][44] - The profitability of express delivery companies is anticipated to improve in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal demand and the effects of the "anti-involution" measures [2][43][44] - Major express companies like SF Express and ZTO Express are expected to see significant growth in profitability in 2025, with projected earnings growth of 15-20% for SF Express [2][54] Group 4: Logistics Sector - The logistics company DeBang's revenue has shown double-digit growth, but profitability has been under pressure due to increased transportation costs [2][66][67] - The company is focusing on enhancing its service quality and optimizing its product structure to improve margins in the future [2][66][67]

国信证券近日发布交通运输行业10月投资策略：由于国庆假期结束，上周整体和国内客 运航班量环比有所下降，整体/国内客运航班量环比分别为-0.6%/-0.6%，整体/国内客运航班 量分别相当于2019年同期的111.2%/116.3%，国际客运航班量环比下降0.4%，相当于2019年 同期的88.3%，近期国际油价略低于去年同期水平。 顺丰控股虽然短期业绩表现承压，但是公司强调"先有后优"的战略，我们预计公司四季 度的业绩有望实现改善且回归正规，明年公司的盈利能力将继续实现提升，明年公司业绩有 望实现15-20%的较快增长，2025年PE估值约18倍，维持推荐；2）在"反内卷"政策指导下， 通达系价格开始企稳回升，公司下半年盈利将确定性改善，建议紧密跟踪行业"反内卷"政策 的持续性及竞争格局变化，推荐中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递、韵达股份。 投资建议：建议配置具有长期价值的稳健标的，看好经营稳健、风险可控且有望带来稳 定收益的价值龙头。推荐顺丰控股、中通快递、圆通速递、申通快递、韵达股份、春秋航 空、南方航空、中远海能、招商轮船、德邦股份。 风险提示：宏观经济复苏不及预期，油价汇率剧烈波动。（国信证券 罗丹） 【 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights a slowdown in holiday shipments and a decline in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded [3][14] - Shenzhen has introduced detailed policies to support low-altitude economic development, and international flight routes have resumed during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [3][16] - China's express delivery volume reached 150 billion packages ahead of schedule, with strategic cooperation agreements signed between YTO Express and Huizhou [3][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hotspot Events - Holiday shipments have slowed, leading to a drop in crude oil shipping rates, while container shipping rates for long-distance routes have rebounded. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) was reported at 1407.48 points, down 26.2% from September 25 [3][14] - Shenzhen's transportation bureau released measures to support low-altitude economic development, effective from October 9, 2025, to December 31, 2026. During the holiday, civil aviation transported 19.138 million passengers, with an average of 2.392 million passengers per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [3][16][18] - As of October 11, 2025, China's express delivery volume surpassed 150 billion packages, achieving this goal 37 days ahead of schedule compared to 2024. A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the Huizhou government and YTO Express [3][23][24] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was reported at 4621.00 points, down 5.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% month-on-month [28] - In September 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 15.86% year-on-year [33] - The SCFI index for container shipping was reported at 1160.42 points, up 4.12% week-on-week but down 43.74% year-on-year [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing industrial product export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - It also highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - The report advises attention to the road and rail sector, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway, Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, and Anhui Expressway [4][5]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月14日 交通运输行业 10 月投资策略 优于大市 快递"反内卷"有望带来业绩修复，中美互征港口费有望带动航运运价上行 航运：近期，由于美国 301 港口征费措施将于 10 月 14 日实施，交通运输部 宣布中国自 10 月 14 日起对美国船舶实施特别港务费反制措施，中美互相加 征港口费的影响在于，1）预计超过四成的航运运力都会受到美国征收港口 费的影响，而受中国征收港口费影响的运力占比会明显更低，其中中国船企 是这次措施中受影响最大的；2）不同船型受影响程度不同，集运板块影响 或最小，油运和干散货板块影响更大；3）中美互征港口非对运价整体影响 有限，但短期政策实施初期的混乱，可能导致运价有所波动，集运方面，主 要因为包括中远海运在内的多家集运船东已承诺不上调运价，以维持市场竞 争力，集运船东将通过船期调配消化或者自己承担增加的成本，油运和干散 货方面，市场会有自我调节效果，无法承受成本的船舶可能退出美国航线， 再由其他船舶填补运力。油运方面，10 月初，由于远东假期期间成交有限， 原油运价表现平平，而随着 10 月 9 日美国 OFAC 新一轮制裁落地，以及 10 月 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express is focusing on enhancing its core express delivery services while advancing its digitalization, intelligence, and internationalization strategies to achieve high-quality development and expand its logistics ecosystem [1][7]. Digitalization and Intelligence - The application of machine vision, edge computing, digital twin technology, and AI models is significantly improving YTO Express's operational efficiency and quality control [2][3]. - The company is implementing AI-driven tools like the "AI Assistant for Couriers," which saves couriers 30 to 60 minutes daily by optimizing delivery routes and tasks [3][4]. - Customer service enhancements include the deployment of intelligent arbitration systems, leading to a 16% reduction in repeat customer inquiries and improved service quality [4][5]. International Expansion - YTO Express has accelerated its internationalization efforts, including the opening of a new processing center in Melbourne and partnerships with companies like Xiaomi for cross-border logistics [5][6]. - The company has established over 150 cargo routes and operates a fleet of 13 aircraft, supporting its international logistics capabilities [6][8]. - YTO Express is expanding its presence in emerging markets and enhancing its supply chain logistics products across various sectors [6][8]. Business Performance - The express delivery volume is projected to grow from 16.543 billion pieces in 2021 to 26.573 billion pieces by 2024, with revenue increasing from 45.155 billion yuan to 69.033 billion yuan in the same period [8][9]. - As of mid-2025, the company has achieved a 21.79% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume and a 10.19% increase in revenue [8]. Quality Development Focus - YTO Express aims to enhance operational efficiency and service quality by focusing on timeliness, fulfillment quality, customer service, and precise marketing strategies [9].

Core Insights - YTO Express has achieved significant growth by enhancing its digital, intelligent, and international capabilities, focusing on core express services while exploring diversified strategic layouts [1][4][6] - The company is committed to deepening its core express business and advancing its digital transformation, utilizing advanced technologies such as AI and machine learning to improve operational efficiency and service quality [2][3] Digital Transformation - The application of machine vision, edge computing, digital twin technology, and AI models has significantly improved quality control, operational standardization, and logistics efficiency [1][2] - The introduction of the "AI Assistant" for couriers has optimized route planning and saved each courier 30 to 60 minutes of work daily [3] Operational Efficiency - In the first half of the year, YTO Express reduced its per-package transportation cost to 0.37 yuan, a decrease of 26% from 2021 [3] - The company has seen improvements in service metrics, with a decrease in overall delivery time by 8.58%, lost package rates down over 59%, and a 16% reduction in repeat customer inquiries [4] International Expansion - YTO Express has launched new international operations, including a processing center in Melbourne and partnerships with companies like Xiaomi for cross-border logistics [4][5] - The company has opened over 150 cargo routes and operates a fleet of 13 aircraft, enhancing its international logistics capabilities [5][6] Market Position and Growth - The express delivery volume is projected to grow from 16.543 billion packages in 2021 to 26.573 billion packages by 2024, with revenue increasing from 45.155 billion yuan to 69.033 billion yuan in the same period [6][7] - As of mid-2025, YTO Express has established a comprehensive service network covering all provinces and major cities in China, with a 99.93% coverage rate in county-level cities [6][7] Commitment to Quality Development - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and service quality while focusing on timely delivery, customer service, and precise marketing strategies [7] - YTO Express is dedicated to achieving high-quality development that aligns with social progress and enhances brand value [7]

国家邮政局统计数据显示，今年以来，我国快递业保持较快增长态势。今年前8个月，我国快递业务收入累计完成9583.7亿 元，同比增长9.2%；快递业务量累计完成1282亿件，同比增长17.8%。截至10月11日，今年我国快递业务量已突破1500亿件。 本报记者 李勇 国家邮政局监测数据显示，截至10月11日，今年我国快递业务量已突破1500亿件，比2024年提前了37天。 "小包裹"折射"大经济"。快递业通过覆盖全国、通达全球的网络体系，有效打通了生产、分配、流通、消费各个环节，是 畅通经济大动脉、保障民生微循环的重要基础性、战略性、先导性产业，也被视为观察社会经济发展情况的晴雨表。 付一夫表示，快递业务量快速增长与行业"反内卷"相互促进，既展现了我国经济的活力与韧性，也标志着快递行业进入高 质量发展新阶段。 "快递业务量的快速增长，是我国经济活力和消费市场扩张的一个缩影，体现了我国消费市场的活跃度增加。"盘古智库 （北京）信息咨询有限公司高级研究员余丰慧在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示。 值得关注的是，随着部分企业促销活动的提前开启，今年的"双11"活动也将逐渐进入高潮，快递业将迎接新一轮的考验。 在苏商银行特 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant achievements of YTO Express during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing its commitment to deepening its core express business while advancing digitalization, intelligence, and internationalization strategies [1][6]. Digital Transformation - YTO Express is undergoing a digital and intelligent transformation, enhancing its core AI capabilities and integrating artificial intelligence into business scenarios to improve efficiency and reduce costs [2][3]. - The company has implemented an intelligent scheduling system to optimize transportation efficiency, resulting in a 26% reduction in per-package transportation costs, which decreased from 0.50 yuan in 2021 to 0.37 yuan in the first half of 2023 [2]. End-Delivery and Customer Service Innovations - The introduction of the "AI Assistant for Couriers" aims to save each courier 30 to 60 minutes daily by optimizing delivery routes and utilizing voice and image recognition technologies [3]. - YTO Express has upgraded its customer service processes, achieving a 16% year-on-year reduction in repeat call rates by enhancing AI-driven claims processing and customer management systems [3]. International Expansion - YTO Express has accelerated its international development, launching a new processing center in Melbourne and establishing a partnership with Xiaomi for cross-border supply chain services [4]. - The company has opened over 150 cargo routes and operates a fleet of 13 aircraft, enhancing its global logistics capabilities and service offerings [4]. High-Quality Development Focus - YTO Express's express business volume is projected to grow from 16.543 billion packages in 2021 to 26.573 billion packages in 2024, with revenue increasing from 45.155 billion yuan to 69.033 billion yuan in the same period [6]. - The company aims to improve operational efficiency and service quality while enhancing brand value through a focus on quality, technology, and sustainability [7].