Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 1.05% on January 15, with Debon Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Debon Holdings (603056) closed at 16.98, up 9.97% with a trading volume of 15,200 [1] - Jiayou International (603871) closed at 14.42, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 185,000 [1] - Tiens Holdings (002800) closed at 17.31, up 3.22% with a trading volume of 113,900 [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.05, up 2.59% with a trading volume of 335,000 [1] - SF Holding (002352) closed at 39.19, up 1.66% with a trading volume of 474,100 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 174 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.49 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like SF Holding had a net inflow of 164 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Debon Holdings had a significant institutional net inflow of 15.11 million yuan, representing 58.69% of its trading volume [3]

建筑建材板块在 2026 年的投资机会有哪些？ 周期专场：周期行业开年机会把握 20260114 摘要 中通快递受益于市占率提升和头尾分化趋势，估值修复潜力大，是电商 快递领域的布局重点。 顺丰控股和京东物流基本面触底，通过降本增效和收紧亏损业务，业绩 有望迎来修复，内部管理优化和营销策略调整将提高业绩弹性。 顺丰同城作为独立第三方即时配送服务商，受益于即时零售发展，处于 超跌位置，有望实现高成长和利润增长。 罗曼股份在 AI 基础设施建设领域订单规模大，政策支持力度强，预计 2025-2026 年业绩增长确定性高。 上海港湾通过收购进入卫星能源系统领域，受益于商业航天加速发展， 同时布局钙钛矿技术，提升未来需求。 香港房地产市场成交量和价格回升，2025 年新房成交量创近 20 年新高， 二手房价格自去年 4 月以来已回升 8%。 预期美元利率下降将推动香港房贷利率下降，利好新鸿基地产、恒基地 产、信和置业等港资地产龙头公司，其持有型资产收租情况改善，分红 稳定，估值有望提升。 Q&A 2026 年快递行业的投资机会有哪些？ 2026 年快递行业存在多种投资机会，主要集中在以下几个方面： 整体来看，极兔速递 ...

中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，"价格战"转向"价值战"背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质 更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为 显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递（600233）(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递（002468）(002468.SZ)、韵达股 份（002120）(002120.SZ)及顺丰控股（002352）(002352.SZ)。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。"反内卷"背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件 化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量"去泡沫"，行业件量增速中枢下移预期 下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长 8%左右)，"降本、提质、增效"的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。 深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识 1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边 ...

3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。"反内卷"背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件 化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量"去泡沫"，行业件量增速中枢下移预期 下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长 8%左右)，"降本、提质、增效"的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。 深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识 1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边际降本效果逐渐减弱，头部加盟制快递公司主 要通过优化路由、提升车辆装载率及分拣效率等方式来降本增效，截至2025年H1"通达系"快递公司的 单票中转成本已降至0.60元左右，后续总部中转环节的降本空间可能会逐步收窄。 2)末端环节：末端配送作为快递服务"最后一公里"，直接影响用户体验和物流效率，相关成本在全链路 成本中占比较高，网点"调优革新"将成为重点发力方向，随着自动化、无人化等举措持续推进，预计后 续仍有较大成本优化空间。在加盟制快递模式中，末端设备投入与优化成本由加盟商承担，因此新产 品、新技术的应用进展及降本成效与网点的经 ...

股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏 月"）通知，杭州灏月在2025年12月4日至2026年1月13日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500股。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临2026-007 二、权益变动触及1%刻度的基本情况 注：上述表格中的数据如有尾差，系数据四舍五入所致。 三、其他说明 1.公司于2025年10月17日披露了《圆通速递股份有限公司关于5%以上股东大宗交易减持股份计划的公 告》（公告编号：临2025-064），杭州灏月出于股东自身发展战略和资金筹划考虑，计划自减持计划公 告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过大宗交易方式合计转让公司股份不超过68,450,994股，拟转 让比例不 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

圆通速递1月13日大宗交易平台共发生7笔成交，合计成交量695.35万股，成交金额1.11亿元。成交价格 均为15.90元，相对今日收盘价折价5.24%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在7笔成 交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为1.11亿元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生41笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为10.33亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，圆通速递今日收盘价为16.78元，下跌0.83%，日换手率为0.44%，成交额为 2.54亿元，全天主力资金净流出1420.62万元，近5日该股累计上涨0.78%，近5日资金合计净流出3911.88 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为1.97亿元，近5日减少1805.12万元，降幅为8.40%。（数据宝） 1月13日圆通速递大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 231.78 | 3685.30 | 15.90 | -5. ...

证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2026-007 圆通速递股份有限公司 关于 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的提示性公告 股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： | 权益变动方向 | 比例增加□ | | 比例减少□√ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益变动前合计比例 | 17.59% | | | | 权益变动后合计比例 | 16.86% | | | | 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 诺、意向、计划 | 是□ | 否□√ | | | 是否触发强制要约收购义务 | 是□ | 否□√ | | 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理 有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏月"）通知，杭州灏月在 2025 年 12 月 4 日至 2026 年 1 月 13 日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500 股。现将有 关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].

新年伊始，AI应用概念再掀热度，有行业人士直言，2026年将是AI走向落地应用的元年。事实上，人 工智能技术已在快递行业内广泛落地和应用，并构筑了企业经营发展的核心竞争力。 圆通亦持续赋能加盟网点提升管理效能，其推出的"网点经理智能助手"通过智能数据分析，助力加盟商 精准把控运营状况，科学优化管理策略，实现网点运营精准管控。 值得关注的是，圆通速递打造了覆盖全链路的智能化矩阵这一"最强大脑"，在揽派、中转、运输、客 服、管理等各个环节赋能，实现了服务效率与客户体验的同步提升，目前，深度集成的AI系统已成为 圆通快递高效运作的最大底气。 多场景AI应用的协同发力，使圆通在高并发业务场景下保持服务稳定性，实现了提质降本增效，亦为 消费市场顺畅运转提供了有力支撑。 在揽派前端，圆通"业务员AI助手"可实现批量外呼、分堆播报等功能，并主动推送相关指示，助力业务 员高效完成工作任务，同时，通过该系统智能路径规划，可减少配送延误与错派。此外，AI助手可助 力新员工快速掌握业务流程，降低培训成本。数据测算，该助手每日可帮助业务员节省30-60分钟工作 时间，直接提升终端服务效率。 中转环节，"数字孪生"系统已在圆通全国集运 ...