Summary of YTO Express Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: YTO Express - **Industry**: Express Delivery and Logistics Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, YTO Express achieved a total express delivery volume of **8.084 billion** pieces, a year-on-year increase of **21.84%** [2] - The company reported revenue of **18.823 billion** yuan, up **9.84%** year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of **974 million** yuan [2] - The express delivery business contributed **1.038 billion** yuan to net profit, while air freight and international business losses narrowed to **64 million** yuan [2] Cost and Revenue Metrics - Average revenue per piece decreased by **0.14** yuan to **2.12** yuan, while average cost per piece fell by **0.10** yuan to **1.95** yuan, resulting in a gross profit per piece of **0.17** yuan, down **0.05** yuan [7] - Cost control measures were effective, with significant reductions in collection, delivery, transportation, and operational costs per piece [7] Industry Dynamics - The State Post Bureau's anti-involution initiative is expected to positively impact express companies by stabilizing pricing and improving network stability, particularly in Guangdong and Zhejiang provinces, which account for nearly **50%** of national business volume [8][9] - The company anticipates that the anti-involution policy will lead to a more stable pricing environment and potentially higher profitability [8] Artificial Intelligence (AI) Integration - YTO Express is advancing its AI strategy, applying technologies such as machine vision, voice technology, and digital twins across various operational areas [10] - AI applications have improved cost control, service quality, and customer experience, with a **25%** increase in customer service efficiency due to AI systems [12] - AI-generated code accounted for **24%** of total code produced in the first half of 2025, indicating significant progress in AI programming [12] Capital Expenditure and Future Investments - The company plans to increase capital expenditures for land, transfer center construction, equipment purchases, and vehicle updates to enhance competitiveness and address industry changes [5][27] - YTO Express aims to close the gap with competitors like ZTO Express, which has significantly higher cumulative capital expenditures [27] Market Outlook and Growth Projections - Despite an expected decline in industry growth rates, YTO Express aims to maintain growth above the industry average, driven by effective cost management and service quality improvements [22] - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs in the last-mile delivery segment through technology and AI applications [30] Challenges and Risks - The impact of social security policies on operational costs is significant, particularly for smaller express companies, necessitating improved efficiency and resource optimization [5][13] - The competitive landscape remains challenging, with ongoing price competition despite the introduction of minimum pricing [28] Strategic Focus - YTO Express is prioritizing AI and digital capabilities as key differentiators in the market, with a focus on enhancing customer experience and operational efficiency [31] - The company is also exploring international expansion, particularly in Central Asia, while maintaining a cautious approach to the Southeast Asian market [29] Additional Important Insights - The company is leveraging AI to optimize reverse logistics processes, addressing the rising costs associated with increased return rates from e-commerce [25] - The integration of smart delivery systems and self-service lockers is expected to improve last-mile delivery efficiency and reduce labor costs [26][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for YTO Express [2][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [3] - The business volume grew steadily, with a total of 14.863 billion parcels delivered in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.79% [3] - The decline in single-ticket revenue due to price wars was a significant factor in the decrease in net profit [3][4] - The company has optimized its cost structure, with single-ticket costs decreasing from 2.11 yuan to 2.02 yuan, a reduction of 4.51% [4] - The company is focusing on improving service quality, with a significant reduction in lost parcels and false sign-offs [5] Revenue and Profitability - The company's single-ticket revenue in H1 2025 was 2.19 yuan, down 6.27% from the previous year [3] - The gross profit per single ticket decreased by 25.34% year-on-year, from 0.23 yuan to 0.17 yuan [4] - The forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.98 billion yuan, 4.66 billion yuan, and 5.15 billion yuan, respectively [5][10] Market Position and Strategy - YTO Express's market share increased from 15.2% to 15.5% year-on-year [3] - The company is expanding its reverse logistics business, which has seen a growth of over 112% [5] - Regulatory attention on price wars is expected to ease competitive pressures, potentially improving profitability [5] Financial Metrics - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 58.794 billion yuan [7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.15 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.50 yuan, respectively [5][10] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for the same years are projected to be 14.9X, 12.7X, and 11.5X [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the operational challenges faced by YTO Express, particularly in Chuzhou, Anhui, where service disruptions occurred due to unpaid wages leading to a collective work stoppage by couriers [3][10][12]. Group 1: Service Disruptions - Since August 16, 2023, YTO Express has been unable to process shipments in certain areas of Chuzhou, with reports of ongoing issues as of August 27 [3][8]. - Complaints against YTO Express have reached 157,000 on the Black Cat Complaints platform, indicating widespread dissatisfaction among consumers and merchants [3]. - The direct cause of the service disruption is attributed to unpaid wages for couriers, resulting in a collective work stoppage [10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In July 2023, YTO Express reported a 12.08% year-on-year increase in revenue, totaling 5.371 billion yuan, while the volume of business completed rose by 20.79% to 2.583 billion shipments [12]. - However, the average revenue per shipment decreased by 7.20% to 2.08 yuan, indicating a significant drop compared to competitors [4][12]. Group 3: Employee Issues - Couriers have expressed concerns over harsh penalties and unpaid social security, leading to high turnover rates and service quality issues [11][10]. - The punitive measures for couriers include fines for various reasons, contributing to a stressful work environment and further exacerbating staffing shortages [11]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The article discusses the broader issue of "involution" within the express delivery industry, which has led to intensified competition and reduced profit margins for companies like YTO Express [14][15]. - Experts suggest that the industry needs to move away from homogeneous competition and establish better regulatory frameworks to improve conditions for both franchisees and couriers [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent service disruptions at YTO Express in Chuzhou, Anhui, are attributed to wage arrears affecting delivery personnel, leading to a collective work stoppage and significant customer complaints [2][5][6] Group 1: Service Disruption - Since August 16, 2023, YTO Express has been unable to process shipments in certain areas of Chuzhou, with reports of unresponsive service centers [2][3] - The affected regions include Nanchao District, Langya District, and Lai'an County, with ongoing service issues noted as of August 27 [2] - Complaints on the Black Cat Complaint platform have reached 157,000, highlighting dissatisfaction from consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In July 2023, YTO Express reported a single ticket revenue decline of 7.20%, dropping to 2.08 yuan, while the overall revenue reached 5.371 billion yuan, a 12.08% increase year-on-year [7][9] - The business volume increased by 20.79%, totaling 25.83 billion tickets, indicating a paradox where revenue growth does not translate to improved financial health for delivery personnel [7] Group 3: Employee Issues - Delivery personnel have expressed grievances regarding unpaid wages and a harsh penalty system, which has led to high turnover rates and service quality issues [5][6] - The punitive measures for minor infractions create a stressful work environment, contributing to a cycle of employee dissatisfaction and service disruptions [6][10] Group 4: Industry Context - The competitive landscape of the express delivery industry is characterized by "involution," leading to price wars that pressure both franchisees and delivery personnel, ultimately affecting service quality [10] - Experts suggest that the industry needs to move away from homogeneous competition and establish better regulatory frameworks to improve conditions for both franchisees and employees [10]

Market Overview - On August 28, the logistics sector rose by 1.1%, with YTO Express leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3843.6, up 1.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12571.37, up 2.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - YTO Express (600233) closed at 18.25, with a gain of 6.17% and a trading volume of 378,700 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 672 million [1] - Milkway (603713) closed at 67.01, up 5.76%, with a trading volume of 39,900 shares and a transaction value of 257 million [1] - Other notable performers include: - Jiayou International (603871) at 12.31, up 3.62% [1] - Jianfa Co. (600153) at 11.69, up 2.81% [1] - SF Express (002352) at 48.40, up 1.02% [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 319 million from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 291 million [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors include: - YTO Express with a net inflow of 29.22 million [3] - Milkway with a net inflow of 23.49 million [3] - Conversely, significant net outflows from institutional investors were observed in: - Milkway with a net outflow of 25.99 million [3] - SF Express with a net outflow of 22.76 million [3]

收量 | 指数 涨跌（％） | | --- | | 名称 | | ┣证指数 3800 -1.76 5.75 0.91 | | 深证综指 2394 -1.91 8.79 1.33 | | 风格指数 == (%) | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 -1.49 | 6.7 | 11.1 | | 中盘指数 -1.49 | 9.23 | 11.99 | | 小盘指数 -1.59 | 9.17 - | 13.04 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 2.63 | 42.49 | 69.44 | | 小会属II | 1.78 | 14.22 | 64 | | 真他电源设 | 0.91 | 20.56 | 23.34 | | 金属新材料 | 0.68 | 16.89 | 36.78 | | 互联网电商 | 0.35 | 7.45 | 13.56 | | 跌幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 化妆品 | -4.73 | 3.55 | 1 ...

信达证券研报指出，圆通速递上半年归母净利润18.31亿元，同比-7.90%，Q2归母净利润9.74亿元，同比-6.76%。二季度延续高增长，市场份额同比+0.3pct。单票经营情况：Q2单票核心成 ...

量价平衡优于行业，业绩符合预期 证券研究报告 圆通速递 (600233 CH) 2025 年 8 月 28 日│中国内地 仓储物流 公司公布上半年业绩：收入 358.8 亿元，同比+10.2%；归母净利润 18.3 亿 元，同比-7.9%。其中二季度公司实现收入 188.2 亿元，同比+9.8%；归母 净利润 9.7 亿元，同比-6.8%。公司上半年业绩基本符合我们预期（18.1 亿 元），归母净利同比下滑主因 2Q25 快递行业价格竞争激烈，快递业务单票 收入降幅大于成本降幅。展望下半年，"反内卷"有望规范行业定价，推动 行业价格环比回升，我们看好公司凭借优于行业的履约能力和品牌溢价，持 续强化全链路管控、时效水平提升、服务质量改善，实现量价利均衡发展， 维持"买入"。 量价平衡优于行业，上半年市场份额提升 上半年，公司件量同比增速快于行业，价格降幅小于行业。1H25，全国快 递业务量达 956.4 亿件，同比+19.3%；快递业务收入累计完成 7187.8 亿元， 同比+10.1%；行业件均价同比-7.7%。1H25，公司完成快递业务量 148.6 亿件，同比+21.8%，较行业增速快 2.5pct，市场 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 圆通速递(600233) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 圆通速递（600233.SH）点评：25Q1 归 母净利润 8.57 亿元，单票核心成本持 续下降 圆通速递（600233.SH）点评：10 月快 递件量同比+31%，单票收入环比+6% 圆通速递（600233.SH）2024 年中报点 评：24H1 快递业务归母净利润同比稳 增 13%，看好数字化工程持续降本提效 [Table_Title] 圆通速递（600233.SH）2025 年半年报点评：25H1 归母净利润同比-7.9%，份额提升 0.3pct [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 08 月 28 ...

（文章来源：证券时报） 圆通速递半年报显示，公司持续完善智慧路由系统，基于历史订单量、成本等实时数据动态计算路由调 整方案，并应用智能调度系统实现运能资源的精准匹配，推动线路与车辆优化，不仅降低了运输成本， 更提升了干线运输时效。同时，公司积极探索智能驾驶车辆的应用，助力延长车辆运行时间、提升燃油 经济性。2025年上半年，公司单车装载票数同比提升超7%，单票运输成本降至0.37元，同比下降0.06 元，降幅12.81%。 半年报还显示，截至6月末，圆通速递人均效能提升超13%。2025年上半年，公司单票中心操作成本降 至0.27元，同比下降0.01元，降幅3.63%；第二季度，公司单票中心操作成本持续下降至0.25元，同比下 降0.02元，降幅5.48%。 上半年，公司快递业务完成量达148.63亿件，同比增长21.79%，超出行业平均增速2.5个百分点。 圆通速递（600233）8月27日晚披露2025年半年报，上半年，公司实现营业收入358.83亿元，同比增长 10.19%；归属于母公司股东净利润18.31亿元，其中快递业务贡献归母净利润19.85亿元；经营性现金流 26.34亿元，同比增长13.99% ...