9月5日下午，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"圆通速递"）召开2025年半年度业绩说明会，公司副总 裁兼财务负责人王丽秀在回复投资者提问时表示："公司注重业务量和利润之间的平衡，秉持稳中有进 的发展策略，聚焦实现规模增长与业绩提升的协同共振。" 近年来，圆通速递积极推进国际化发展战略，深化新兴市场拓展，国际综合服务能力持续提升。喻会蛟 表示："未来，公司还将继续扩大海外布局范围，延长国际物流服务链条，深化拓展哈萨克斯坦等中亚 国家的全链路快递服务，并依托自有航空及航线网络资源，做精做专中澳、中日、中韩等优质专线；公 司将持续投入国际业务基础建设，强化与航空货运业务的协同融合发展，并继续加大国际化人才的引进 及培养，着力推进数字化赋能，整体提升国际业务运营管理水平。" 半年报显示，2025年上半年，圆通速递业务发展稳健良好，综合实力持续提升。报告期内，公司快递业 务完成量148.63亿件，同比增长21.79%，超出行业平均增速2.5个百分点，业务规模和市场份额稳步提 升。上半年实现营业收入358.83亿元，同比增长10.19%。 对于下半年的业务发展规划，圆通速递董事兼总裁潘水苗表示："下半年，公司将继续坚定深 ...

历经9个月的漫长"恢复"，物流资本市场迎来久违的曙光。 每日经济新闻旗下每经未来商业智库自2021年5月起，定期推出"未来商业-物流产业市值榜"（点击专题 直达）。在我们最新统计的覆盖快递快运、物流科技、即时配送以及同城货运等多维度的25家快递物流 公司中，近八成企业市值收获巨大修复。特别是多家物流科技公司，年内（截至9月4日，下同）市值涨 幅较大。其中，东杰智能（300486）市值涨幅达289.04%，以121亿元市值一跃登上11家物流科技公司 之首。 去年股价持续受挫的极兔速递，年内市值涨幅达55.95%，市值总排名超越京东物流；满帮集团年内市 值涨幅达23.93%，挺进物流企业市值总榜第三，仅次于顺丰、中通。而7月以来，行业"反内卷"蔚然成 风，尽管快递企业披露的2025年半年报普遍"增量不增收"、利润下滑、单票收入下降，但快递公司今年 以来市值普遍增长。 另一方面，"通达系"之首中通快递年内市值下降4.23%；即时配送公司闪送市值跌去63.3%，仅剩15亿 元；百世集团和达达退市，市场出清、业务兼并的步子没有停下。充分竞争的快递物流、即时配送市 场，下半年形势依然严峻。 不过，电商"双11"大促日益临 ...

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express is focusing on enhancing its core express delivery business while expanding its international logistics capabilities and optimizing its service offerings to improve customer experience and operational efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Business Performance - In the first half of 2025, YTO Express completed a total of 14.863 billion express deliveries, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.79%, which exceeds the industry average growth rate by 2.5 percentage points [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 35.883 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.19% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 1.831 billion yuan, with the express delivery segment contributing 1.985 billion yuan to this figure [2]. Group 2: Operational Network - As of June 30, 2025, YTO Express's express service network covers all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China, with a coverage rate of 99.93% in cities above the county level [1]. - The company has 5,027 franchisees and over 77,000 active terminal stores, along with 75 self-operated hub transfer centers and 3,345 sets of automated sorting equipment [1]. - The fleet includes nearly 8,300 line-haul transport vehicles, of which 6,733 are owned, and a self-owned airline fleet consisting of 13 aircraft [1]. Group 3: International Development Strategy - YTO Express is actively deepening its international development strategy, focusing on expanding its international network and optimizing cross-border logistics services [1][3]. - The company aims to enhance its comprehensive service capabilities globally by leveraging its overseas stations, professional teams, and diverse fleet [1][3]. - Future plans include expanding overseas operations, particularly in Central Asia, and enhancing the international logistics service chain [4].

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry continues to experience high growth in volume, with significant performance variations among leading companies, while profitability is under pressure due to intensified price competition [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Performance - In Q2, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 505.1 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1][2] - Major companies' business volumes were as follows: Zhongtong 98.5 billion pieces, Yuantong 80.8 billion pieces, Yunda 66.5 billion pieces, Shentong 65.4 billion pieces, and Shunfeng 42.7 billion pieces [1][2] - Year-on-year growth rates for these companies were: Shunfeng 31.2%, Yuantong 21.8%, Zhongtong 16.6%, Shentong 16.0%, and Yunda 11.2% [1][2] Group 2: Market Share Changes - Market share changes showed Shunfeng increasing by 0.9 percentage points, Yuantong by 0.6 percentage points, Zhongtong decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, Shentong by 0.2 percentage points, and Yunda by 0.7 percentage points [2] Group 3: Pricing and Profitability - The average price per delivery in Q2 was 7.39 yuan, down 6.82% year-on-year and 3.52% quarter-on-quarter [2] - For Shunfeng, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.504 billion yuan, up 21.0%, with a net profit margin of 4.55% [2][3] - Zhongtong's adjusted net profit was 2.053 billion yuan, down 26.8%, while Yuantong's was 974 million yuan, down 6.8% [3] - Yunda reported a significant drop in net profit to 208 million yuan, down 66.9%, and Shentong's net profit was 217 million yuan, down 11.9% [3] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company maintains a positive outlook on Shunfeng's performance stability and is monitoring the ongoing price competition in the e-commerce express delivery sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing significant growth, with a notable increase in parcel volume and a trend towards "anti-involution" in pricing competition, which is expected to stabilize the market in the medium to long term [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In July 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.4 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, while the volume for January to July 2025 totaled 112.05 billion parcels, up 18.7% year-on-year [1][2]. - The express delivery industry's revenue in July 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while the average revenue per parcel decreased by 5.3%. For the first seven months of 2025, revenue grew by 9.9%, with a 7.4% decline in average revenue per parcel [4]. Group 2: Company Performance - SF Express reported a remarkable business volume growth of 33.7% year-on-year in July 2025, leading the industry, with a 26.9% increase for the first seven months [2]. - Other major express companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong also showed positive growth in July 2025, with year-on-year increases of 20.8%, 7.6%, and 11.9% respectively [2]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery sector is increasing, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9% for January to July 2025, reflecting a 1.7% year-on-year increase [3]. - In Q2 2025, the market shares of leading companies such as Zhongtong, YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu increased compared to Q1, indicating a trend towards greater market concentration [3]. Group 4: Pricing and Competition - The decline in average revenue per parcel is narrowing, indicating a reduction in price competition due to the "anti-involution" measures being implemented. This trend is expected to ease competitive pressures in the short term while promoting healthy competition in the long term [4]. - The National Postal Administration has emphasized the need to combat "involution-style" competition, with recent meetings aimed at ensuring stable operations and pricing in the express delivery sector [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" measures are anticipated to alleviate competitive pressures, with expectations for profitability recovery in the e-commerce express sector in the latter half of the year. The sustainability of price increases will be crucial for future profitability [5]. - Companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda are highlighted as key investment opportunities due to their strong performance and potential for profit recovery [5].

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨圆通速递（600233.SH） [Table_Title] Q2 盈利韧性凸显，份额提升趋势延续 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025Q2，公司实现营业收入 188.2 亿元，同比增长 9.8%；实现归母净利润 9.7 亿元，同比下 降 6.8%。二季度公司份额持续提升，竞争加剧单价承压，公司强化成本管控，单票归母净利表 现韧性，环比仅下降 0.01 元。当前快递"反内卷"措施持续落地，全国涨价趋势明朗，旺季公 司盈利弹性可期。公司引领快递数字化变革，综合竞争实力强化，中长期份额有望持续提升， 维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 圆通速递（600233.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q2 盈利韧性凸显，份额提升趋势延续 [T ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 9 月 2 日 航运方面，原油运价回调，欧线美线集运运价分化，欧线下跌美线反弹。航 空方面，亿航智能深化合肥政府合作，农银金租与沃兰特航空签署 120 架天 行采购订单。物流与交通新业态方面，韵达股份上半年营收同比增长 6.8%，极兔速递上半年东南亚市占率提升至 32.8%。 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 沃兰特获农银金租 120 架天行采购订单，极兔 速递上半年东南亚市占率提升至 32.8% 核心观点 原油运价回调，欧线美线集运运价分化，欧线下跌美线反弹。8 月 28 日， 上海航运交易所发布的中国进口原油综合指数（CTFI）报 1273.82 点，较 8 月 21 日上涨 10.3%。本周 VLCC 市场先涨后跌，周平均水平上移。周初， 中东航线货量保持稳中有增态势，成交运价跳涨，带动大西洋航线运价跟 涨。下半周，手握正常装期货盘的租家抓住船东倾向寻找中东航线这样的 短航程货盘的心理，逐步占据议价主动权，成交运价小幅回调。美湾航线 受 TCE 收益较中东航线价差较大的影响，加之船东不愿较低价格接货，可 用运力收紧，临近周末运价逆势上涨。欧线方面，本周运 ...

Overall Industry Investment Rating - The transportation sector is expected to see revenue and profit growth in H1 2025, with a revenue increase of 1.8% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 4.3% year-on-year [2][20]. Core Insights - The transportation sector's revenue for H1 2025 reached 1.7351 trillion yuan, driven by significant revenue increases in the aviation and express delivery segments [2][27]. - The express delivery segment experienced a substantial volume increase of 19.3% year-on-year, although profits were impacted by price wars, leading to a 1% decline in net profit for Q2 2025 [3][38]. - The aviation sector saw a recovery with a 71% increase in net profit for H1 2025, supported by a 6% increase in domestic passenger volume and a 25% increase in international passenger volume [4][32]. - The shipping sector maintained a stable outlook, with a slight revenue increase of 2.8% year-on-year, although net profit decreased by 2.8% [5][46]. - The port sector benefited from a 2.5% increase in cargo throughput, resulting in a 5% revenue increase and a 10% net profit increase for H1 2025 [6][48]. Summary by Sections Transportation Overview - The transportation sector's revenue for H1 2025 was 1.7351 trillion yuan, up 1.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 949 billion yuan, up 4.3% year-on-year [2][20][27]. - In Q2 2025, the sector's revenue was 898.1 billion yuan, remaining flat year-on-year, while net profit increased by 6.3% to 477 billion yuan [2][20][32]. Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery segment's revenue for H1 2025 was 700 billion yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year, with a volume of 957 billion parcels, up 19.3% year-on-year [3][38]. - The logistics sector faced a 2% revenue decline in H1 2025, with net profit remaining flat [3][60]. Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector's revenue increased by 7% year-on-year in H1 2025, with net profit soaring by 71% [4][32]. - Airport revenues grew by 6% year-on-year, with net profit increasing by 26% [4][32]. Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector's revenue increased by 2.8% year-on-year in H1 2025, while net profit decreased by 2.8% [5][46]. - The port sector's cargo throughput increased by 2.5%, leading to a 5% revenue increase and a 10% net profit increase [6][48]. Road and Rail - The road sector saw a 3.03% revenue decline in H1 2025, but net profit increased by 3.4% [6][60]. - The railway sector's revenue was 778 billion yuan, up 0.4% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 11.2% [7][60]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the logistics and aviation sectors, highlighting companies like SF Holding and Hai Chen Co. for their growth potential [8].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huayuan Securities indicates that YTO Express experienced a decline in net profit for the first half of the year, but it shows strong growth in business volume and capital expenditure, positioning itself well in the competitive landscape [1] Financial Performance - YTO Express reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.831 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.90% [1] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 974 million yuan, down 6.76% year-on-year, with express delivery net profit at 1.038 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.07% decline [1] Business Growth and Strategy - The company demonstrated impressive growth in business volume in Q2, maintaining an increasing market share [1] - Capital expenditure for the first half of the year reached 4.43 billion yuan, representing a 64% year-on-year increase, indicating rapid capacity expansion [1] - YTO Express is implementing a proactive competitive strategy, leveraging its comprehensive service capabilities to achieve notable business volume growth compared to peers in the "Tongda" system [1] Technological Advancements - The company is investing in AI tools such as "YTO-GPT" to enhance operational efficiency, including features like AI assistants, smart routing, digital twins, and intelligent customer service [1] - These technological advancements aim to promote digitalization and standardization across the network, improving management efficiency and overall competitiveness [1] Industry Outlook - The industry is gradually moving towards "anti-involution," which is expected to benefit leading companies like YTO Express significantly [1] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for YTO Express, reflecting confidence in its future performance [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that YTO Express has shown resilience in profitability despite a competitive environment, with significant growth in business volume and capital expenditure [1][3] - In H1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 35.883 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.19%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.831 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.90% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company completed a volume of 8.084 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 21.84%, and maintained a market share of 16.0%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The company has maintained strong cost control, with the core cost per parcel in Q2 2025 at 0.59 yuan, a decrease of 0.07 yuan (or -9.2%) year-on-year [2] - The company is leveraging AI and smart technologies to enhance operational efficiency, with applications like AI assistants and smart routing contributing to improved management effectiveness [2] - In Q2 2025, the net profit per parcel was 0.12 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.04 yuan (or -23.5%), indicating strong operational resilience despite pricing pressures [3] Group 3 - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the industry's gradual shift away from intense competition, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 4.571 billion, 5.835 billion, and 6.695 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.93%, 27.64%, and 14.73% respectively [3] - The current price-to-earnings ratios for the projected years are 12.68, 9.94, and 8.66 times, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3]