中国经济网北京7月18日讯(记者 王婉莹) 7月16日，第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会(简称链博会) 在北京开幕。作为快递物流企业的代表，圆通速递连续第三次参展，展示了国际供应链解决方案以及 "仓、干、线、配、关、技" 的全链条供应链能力。 圆通速递董事长喻渭蛟表示，链博会为全球企业搭建了共商、共建、共享的重要平台。圆通愿与上 下游合作伙伴深化合作，共同构建安全、畅通、高效的全球供应链体系。这一表态展现了圆通加速国际 化布局的决心。 圆通国际市场营销总监王岳在接受中国经济网记者采访时介绍了"1+7"全球战略布局。该战略以正 在建设的嘉兴东方天地港为核心枢纽，计划在未来三年内在海外建设7个区域枢纽节点，打造自主可控 的全球航空物流网络。"我们正在重点打造航空运力和海外网络这两大核心能力，同时与其他专业伙伴 在干线运输、海外清关等环节开展深度合作。" 展会现场，圆通还展示了其创新的国际物流解决方案，包括为高端制造业量身定制的多式联运服 务，以及针对跨境电商推出的卡空联运产品。这些创新服务有效满足了不同类型客户的国际物流需求。 业内专家指出，圆通此次发布的"1+7"全球战略，标志着中国快递物流企业正在从单纯的运输服 ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [12] Core Insights - The logistics industry is experiencing a "DeepSeek moment" with significant technological breakthroughs across various segments, including branch, trunk, terminal, and management [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of adopting new technologies to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in the express delivery sector [11][28] Summary by Sections Introduction: The Arrival of the "DeepSeek Moment" in the Logistics Industry - The logistics industry is witnessing substantial advancements due to improved algorithm efficiency and rapid technological iterations, leading to significant breakthroughs in various operational segments [7][18] - Key drivers for these advancements include the massive scale of the Chinese express delivery market, intense competition, and high labor cost ratios [28] Branch Segment: The Growth Year for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Leading express companies are initiating a surge in unmanned logistics vehicle orders, driven by reduced core component costs and improved algorithm efficiency [8][33] - The monthly operational cost of unmanned logistics vehicles can be as low as 2000 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly salary of drivers [33][40] Trunk Segment: Smart Assisted Driving Initiates Mass Production - Smart assisted driving trucks are being deployed on a large scale by leading express companies, addressing safety and cost issues in traditional trunk transportation [9][32] - The potential market space for smart trucks is substantial, with projected sales of 1.03 million heavy trucks in 2024 [9] Terminal Segment: Mode Transformation Drives Cost Reduction - Express companies are innovating their terminal operations to reduce costs significantly, with models like direct linking from transfer centers to terminal stations [10][32] - The report highlights that if the direct link ratio reaches 40%, terminal costs could be reduced by 0.12 yuan per package [10] Management Segment: Digital Decision-Making Promotes Cost Reduction - Leading companies are developing industry-specific AI models to enhance management efficiency and reduce operational costs [10][32] - The integration of big data and AI technologies is driving improvements in decision-making and resource utilization [10] Investment Recommendations: Technological Waves Reshape Logistics Costs - The report recommends prioritizing investments in direct logistics companies and leading express firms, as well as components and operators related to unmanned commercial vehicles [11][32] - Companies like SF Express and Aneng Logistics are highlighted as key players benefiting from these technological advancements [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in stock prices of major express delivery companies in the A-share market, such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express, is attributed to the government's stance against "involution" in the industry, aiming to enhance regulation and service quality [1][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The State Post Bureau emphasized the need for unified regulations and opposition to "involution-style" competition, which has led to increased market interest in the express delivery sector [1]. - The express delivery industry has seen a decline in average revenue per ticket over the past three years due to intensified price competition and the trend of smaller e-commerce packages [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - By May 2025, YTO Express's average revenue per ticket is projected to drop from 2.42 yuan to 2.12 yuan, Shentong Express from 2.23 yuan to 1.95 yuan, and Yunda Express from 2.29 yuan to 1.92 yuan, reflecting a decline of 4% to 12% [4][6]. - YTO Express has maintained the highest average revenue per ticket in 2023, benefiting from high-end timely products and service quality improvements, while Yunda Express has the lowest due to management issues [6][10]. Group 3: Profitability Analysis - YTO Express leads in average profit per ticket due to effective cost management and synergy in air freight, while Shentong Express showed improvement in 2024, with profits rising from 0.019 yuan to 0.046 yuan due to reduced costs [8][10]. - The overall profit performance of these companies has been declining, with Yunda Express facing significant pressure from competition and cost management failures [8][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The express delivery sector has experienced a "volume increase, price drop" phenomenon, with a projected business volume of 1,750.8 billion pieces in 2024, a 32.6% increase from 2023 [9]. - Shentong Express is expected to have the fastest growth rate in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 29.83%, driven by capacity expansion and collaboration within the Alibaba ecosystem [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market's recent enthusiasm for YTO and Shentong Express stocks is seen as a reaction to long-standing industry pressures rather than fundamental changes in company performance [13]. - Both companies are positioned to benefit first if the government's anti-involution policies lead to tangible changes in the industry [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the need for the express delivery industry to shift towards high-quality development, as the State Post Bureau opposes "involution" competition and aims to improve service quality [4] - The express delivery sector is currently experiencing a decline in per-package revenue, with major companies like Zhongtong, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong showing year-on-year decreases in revenue per package [4] - Jitu's Southeast Asian market has seen significant growth, with a total package volume of 7.392 billion pieces in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.5% [5] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for growth [12] - The shipping sector is anticipated to improve due to OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with specific recommendations for companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping [12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - The express delivery market is facing intense competition, with major players experiencing a decline in revenue per package [4] - The report suggests that regulatory changes could help improve the situation by reducing low-cost competition and enhancing the performance of leading companies [4][12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by long-term low supply growth, but demand is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery [12] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [12] Shipping and Ports - The report indicates a positive outlook for oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and potential interest rate cuts [12] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for their growth potential in the shipping market [12] Road and Rail - The report notes that the Daqin Railway experienced a year-on-year decrease in freight volume in June 2025, while overall logistics operations remain stable [11][12] - Companies like Zhongyuan Expressway and Sichuan Chengyu are highlighted for their growth potential due to infrastructure developments [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 7 月 10 日完成了 2025 年度第一期中期票据的发行，募集资金已于 2025 年 7 月 11 日全额到账， 发行结果如下： | 名称 | 圆通速递股份有限公司 2025 年度第一期中期票据 | 简称 | 25 圆通速递 MTN001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 102582821 | 期限 | 3 年 | | 起息日 | 2025 年 7 月 11 日 | 兑付日 | 2028 年 7 月 11 日 | | 计划发行总额 | 5 亿元 | 实际发行总额 | 5 亿元 | | 发行利率 | 1.98% | 发行价格 | 按面值 100 元发行 | | 簿记管理人 | | 招商银行股份有限公司 | | | 主承销商 | | 招商银行股份有限公司 | | | 联席主承销商 | | 上海银行股份有限公司、南京银行股份有限公司 | | 公司本期中期票据发行相关文件详见中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn） 和上海清算所网站（www.shclearing.com.cn）。 特此公告。 圆通速递股份 ...

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and fluctuated, with the CSI 300 Transportation Index reported at 3840.29 points [1] - The CSI 300 Transportation Index has decreased by 0.50% over the past month, increased by 3.23% over the past three months, and has declined by 1.05% year-to-date [2] - The CSI 300 Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [2] Industry Composition - The top ten weights in the CSI 300 Transportation Index are: Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (26.22%), SF Holding (17.99%), COSCO Shipping Holdings (14.88%), Datong Railway (12.52%), China Eastern Airlines (5.08%), China Southern Airlines (4.84%), Air China (4.36%), Spring Airlines (4.17%), YTO Express (3.73%), and China Merchants Energy Shipping (3.07%) [2] - The market segments of the CSI 300 Transportation Index show that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 81.09%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 18.91% [2] Sector Breakdown - The industry composition of the CSI 300 Transportation Index includes: railway transportation (38.74%), express delivery (21.72%), shipping (20.16%), and air transportation (19.38%) [3] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [3] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the CSI 300 Index samples [3]

| 2025 年 07 月 10 日 | | | --- | --- | | 赵旭东 | | | H70556@capital.com.tw | | | 目标价(元) | 16.0 | 公司基本信息 | 产业别 | | 交通运输 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/7/9) | | 12.70 | | 上证指数(2025/7/9) | | 3493.05 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 19.01/11.64 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 3420.23 | | A 股数(百万) | | 3420.23 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 434.37 | | 主要股东 | | 上海圆通蛟龙 | | | | 投资发展(集 | | | | 团)有限公司 | | | | (30.31%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 9.15 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 1.39 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.1 -0.9 | -8.3 | | 近期评等 | | | | 评等 | | --- | | 前日收盘 | | 出刊日期 | | 产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower but rose throughout the day, with the CSI 300 Transportation Index reported at 3817.95 points, reflecting a recent decline of 1.38% over the past month, an increase of 3.61% over the past three months, and a year-to-date decline of 1.63% [1] Group 1: Index Composition and Performance - The CSI 300 Transportation Index is categorized into 11 primary industries, 35 secondary industries, over 90 tertiary industries, and more than 200 quaternary industries, providing a comprehensive analysis tool for investors [1] - The index is based on a sample of 300 stocks from the CSI 300 Index, with a base date of December 31, 2004, and a base point of 1000.0 [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 Transportation Index include: - Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway (26.28%) - SF Express (17.91%) - COSCO Shipping Holdings (14.98%) - Datong Railway (12.6%) - China Eastern Airlines (5.1%) - China Southern Airlines (4.83%) - Air China (4.4%) - Spring Airlines (4.26%) - YTO Express (3.41%) - China Merchants Energy Shipping (3.08%) [1] Group 2: Market Segmentation - The market composition of the CSI 300 Transportation Index shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange accounts for 81.16%, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounts for 18.84% [1] - The industry breakdown of the index's sample includes: - Railway Transportation (38.88%) - Express Delivery (21.33%) - Shipping (20.28%) - Air Transportation (19.51%) [2] Group 3: Sample Adjustment Mechanism - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December each year [2] - Weight factors are adjusted in accordance with the sample changes, remaining fixed until the next scheduled adjustment unless a temporary adjustment is required due to changes in the CSI 300 Index [2] - Special events affecting sample companies, such as delisting, mergers, or changes in industry classification, will prompt corresponding adjustments to the CSI 300 industry index samples [2]