Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major airlines including China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others, while recommending "Hold" for YTO Express and Shentong Express [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by multiple factors, including the upcoming Spring Festival travel peak, the appreciation of the RMB easing cost pressures, and the increase in visa-free countries for Chinese citizens, which is expected to boost international travel demand [4][7]. - The anticipated passenger transport volume during the 2026 Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [4]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical recovery of the civil aviation market, with expectations of rising passenger load factors and ticket prices, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and limited capacity growth [4][7]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - Daily flight operations from January 19 to January 23 showed slight fluctuations, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines operating 2,245.80 and 2,221.80 flights respectively, while year-on-year comparisons indicate a decrease in operations [4]. - The average aircraft utilization rates during the same period were reported, with Spring Airlines achieving the highest at 9.20 hours per day, although all airlines showed a decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The report suggests that the upcoming Spring Festival will significantly enhance market demand, particularly from student travelers, as the holiday season approaches [4][7]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report notes a divergence in the growth rates of express delivery companies, with a total of approximately 4.073 billion packages collected from January 12 to January 18, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.82% [7]. - It highlights the ongoing high-quality development of the express delivery industry, with policies aimed at reducing competition ("anti-involution") expected to improve profitability [7]. - The report recommends focusing on express companies with significant profit elasticity, such as Shentong Express and YTO Express, as well as those with strong growth potential in overseas markets like Jitu Express [7]. Infrastructure - The report tracks various transportation metrics, including highway and railway freight volumes, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [7]. - It suggests that the low-interest-rate environment will continue to support investment in infrastructure, with a focus on high-quality assets [7]. - Specific recommendations include investing in highway companies like Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway, as well as railway companies like Daqin Railway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [7]. Shipping and Trade - The report indicates a mixed performance in shipping rates, with the SCFI index showing a decline of 7.39% week-on-week and a year-on-year drop of 28.73% [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in oil and bulk shipping due to geopolitical factors and structural demand growth [7]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and COSCO Shipping Holdings for oil shipping investments, as well as Hai Tong Development for bulk shipping [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Market Overview - The logistics sector experienced a decline of 0.23% on January 23, with Jushen Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4136.16, up 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14439.66, up 0.79% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Hengji Daxin (002492) saw a significant increase of 9.99%, closing at 9.03, with a trading volume of 181,300 shares and a turnover of 159 million yuan [1] - Chuanhua Zhili (002010) rose by 4.56%, closing at 7.11, with a trading volume of 1,236,800 shares and a turnover of 887 million yuan [1] - Longzhou Co. (002682) increased by 3.03%, closing at 7.48, with a trading volume of 531,100 shares and a turnover of 394 million yuan [1] - Jushen Co. (001202) experienced a decline of 8.60%, closing at 20.30, with a trading volume of 360,600 shares and a turnover of 74.71 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net outflow of 292 million yuan from institutional investors and 181 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 472 million yuan [2] - Hengji Daxin (002492) had a net inflow of 68.26 million yuan from institutional investors, accounting for 42.80% of its trading volume [3] - Longzhou Co. (002682) had a net inflow of 26.76 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 6.79% of its trading volume [3]

Group 1 - The logistics sector experienced a rise of 0.75% on January 22, with Jushen Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Jushen Co., Ltd. saw a closing price of 22.21, with a significant increase of 10.00% and a trading volume of 184,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The logistics sector had a net inflow of 64.2 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.4 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the logistics sector showed varied performance, with Guohui Logistics experiencing a net inflow of 35.43 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 26.30 million yuan [3] - The stock of SF Holding had a net inflow of 31.04 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 63.58 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3][30] Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China experienced a total delivery volume of 216.5 billion pieces in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.5%. The express delivery volume reached 199 billion pieces, growing by 13.7% year-on-year. The total revenue for the postal industry was 1.8 trillion yuan, with express delivery revenue at 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 6.5% respectively [1][6] - In December 2025, the national express service companies completed a business volume of 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of approximately 2.3%. The express business revenue was about 138.87 billion yuan, showing a slight increase compared to the same period last year. The average revenue per piece was approximately 7.63 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1.6% [1][6][8] Summary by Sections 1. December Industry Overview - The industry volume growth rate fell below 3%, with stable performance in average revenue per piece. The December express delivery volume growth rate decreased further compared to November, attributed to high base effects from last year's price wars and weak demand since Double Eleven [2][6][8] - Major companies saw a decline in year-on-year volume growth rates, with YTO dropping from 13.6% in November to 9.0%, Yunda from -4.2% to -7.4%, and Shentong from 14.7% to 11.1%. SF Express's growth rate fell to 9.3% [2][6][12] 2. Express Business Volume - The express delivery business volume in December 2025 was approximately 18.21 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of about 2.3%. The growth rate continued to decline due to the ongoing internal competition and weak demand since Double Eleven [8][10] 3. Average Revenue per Piece - The average revenue per piece in December 2025 saw a year-on-year decline of 1.6%, with a narrowing decrease in the price drop trend. The overall price indicators remained positive, indicating a supportive effect from the internal competition [7][22][28] - The revenue per piece for major companies showed mixed results, with YTO's revenue per piece increasing by 0.4%, while Yunda and Shentong saw decreases of 0.5% and 3.3% respectively. SF Express's revenue per piece increased by 2.5% month-on-month, with a narrowing year-on-year decline [23][25][27] 4. Investment Recommendations - Despite the pressure from lower-than-expected demand since Double Eleven, the stability in average revenue per piece for major companies reflects the supportive role of internal competition on pricing. The ongoing internal competition is expected to exceed expectations, indicating the industry is in the early stages of an upward cycle, with profitability likely to continue recovering [3][30] - The shift from high-growth to a focus on existing market importance suggests a change in competitive logic, emphasizing service quality for sustainable development. Key companies to watch include Zhongtong and YTO, which lead in service quality, and Shentong, which has shown significant operational improvements [3][30]

Group 1 - The establishment of Ezhou Huahu Airport, led by SF Express, marks a significant breakthrough in China's specialized cargo airport sector, initiating a wave of similar projects by other major express companies [1][2] - The airport, with a total investment of 30.842 billion yuan, is designed to serve as SF Express's aviation headquarters and is compared to FedEx's Memphis hub, featuring advanced facilities including two 4E-level runways and a sorting center capable of processing 280,000 packages per hour [2][3] - The successful model of Ezhou Airport demonstrates the feasibility of deep participation by express integrators, leveraging SF's logistics network to rapidly increase cargo throughput [2][3] Group 2 - The global air cargo demand is projected to grow by 11.3% in 2024, with China's international cargo transport volume expected to increase by 29.3%, prompting express giants to focus on building their own air cargo hubs [3][4] - YTO Express is set to launch its specialized cargo airport in Jiaxing, with a total investment of 15.2 billion yuan, aiming to serve high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce in the Yangtze River Delta [3][4] - China Post is investing over 10 billion yuan in a global aviation hub at Zhengzhou Airport, while ZTO Express is developing a cargo aviation base in Changsha with an investment of 11 billion yuan, indicating a trend of established companies enhancing existing infrastructure [4][5] Group 3 - The competitive landscape among express companies is shifting towards a focus on integrated logistics ecosystems rather than merely expanding fleet sizes, leading to a "survival of the fittest" mentality in the industry [4][5] - The establishment of four major cargo hubs in China aligns with the country's strategic goals, supporting initiatives like the "dual circulation" and "Belt and Road" strategies [5][6] - The differentiation among domestic hubs is evident, with each focusing on specific regional markets and cargo types, thus avoiding homogenized competition and fostering collaborative growth [6][7] Group 4 - Ezhou Airport is expected to drive a trillion-yuan industrial cluster over the next 25 years, while Zhengzhou and Jiaxing airports are also positioned to enhance regional economic development [7] - The current lack of an efficient domestic and international cargo hub system in China highlights the need for improvements in operational efficiency, global network integration, and collaborative mechanisms to elevate the country from a logistics power to a logistics stronghold [7]

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of major express delivery companies in A-shares for the year 2025 has been disclosed, showing varied growth rates and strategic developments among the companies [1][6]. Group 1: Company Performance - SF Express reported total revenue of 273.39 billion yuan in December 2025, with express logistics revenue of 203.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, and a total business volume of 1.476 billion packages, up 9.33% year-on-year [1][2]. - YTO Express achieved a revenue of 64.96 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.48%, with a business volume of 28.84 billion packages, up 9.04% year-on-year [6]. - Shentong Express reported a revenue of 58.36 billion yuan in December 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 28.23%, with a business volume of 25.01 billion packages, up 11.09% year-on-year [6]. - Yunda Express had a revenue of 46.26 billion yuan in December 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.49%, with a business volume of 21.48 billion packages, down 7.37% year-on-year [6]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - SF Express announced a strategic partnership with Jitu Express, involving mutual share purchases, which will enhance resource sharing and collaboration in logistics network development [4]. - SF Express is increasing its share buyback efforts, having repurchased shares worth approximately 10.45 million yuan in mid-January 2025 [4]. - The overall market capitalization reflects the performance differences, with YTO Express leading at 602 billion yuan, followed by Shentong at 212 billion yuan and Yunda at 202 billion yuan [7]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The express delivery industry faces challenges such as rising operational costs, including labor, transportation, and facility expenses, alongside the need for differentiation in a highly competitive market [7]. - Regulatory pressures and the need for green transformation, including packaging reduction and carbon emission management, are increasing operational complexity and require ongoing investment [7].

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: YTO Express (600233) announced that its major shareholder, Hangzhou Haoyue Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., has completed a share reduction plan, transferring 68,450,994 shares, accounting for 2% of the company's total share capital [1][3] - The share reduction plan was initiated on October 17, 2025, with a maximum transfer of 68,450,994 shares through block trading, reflecting the shareholder's strategic and financial planning [3] - The transfer price ranged from 15.74 CNY to 16.37 CNY, with a total transaction amount of 1.089 billion CNY [3] Group 2 - Prior to this reduction, Hangzhou Haoyue held 310,244,613 shares, representing 9.06% of the total share capital, making it the third-largest shareholder of YTO Express [3] - YTO Express's second-largest shareholder is Hangzhou Alibaba Venture Capital Co., Ltd., holding 9.08% of the shares, indicating a relationship between the two entities [3] - This is not the first reduction by Hangzhou Haoyue; a previous reduction occurred on March 12, 2025, where it transferred 68,935,068 shares for a total of 847 million CNY [4] Group 3 - YTO Express reported a revenue of 54.156 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.69%, but the net profit decreased by 1.83% to 2.877 billion CNY [4] - The gross margin was 8.87%, down 7.91% year-on-year, and the net margin was 5.25%, down 11.03% year-on-year [4] - The total sales, management, and financial expenses amounted to 1.08 billion CNY, accounting for 1.99% of revenue, a decrease of 10.89% year-on-year [4] Group 4 - In December 2025, YTO Express reported a revenue of 6.496 billion CNY from express products, a year-on-year increase of 7.48%, with a business volume of 2.884 billion parcels, up 9.04% [5] - However, the average revenue per parcel decreased to 2.25 CNY, down 1.43% year-on-year [5] Group 5 - As of January 20, 2026, YTO Express's stock price closed at 17.59 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 60.203 billion CNY [6][7] - The stock experienced a 2.75% increase on that day, with a trading volume of 349 million CNY [7]