Group 1 - The topic of "express delivery suspension" has become a trending topic on Weibo, prompting inquiries to various express delivery companies [1] - Zhongtong Express has not received any notice of suspension and typically does not charge resource adjustment fees during the Spring Festival [1] - YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express confirmed that they will continue operations during the Spring Festival without any price increase notifications [1] Group 2 - China Post Express Logistics stated that it operates year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, subject to further notice [1] - JD Logistics indicated that some stations may experience scheduling changes and resource adjustment fees based on delivery volume during the Spring Festival [1] - SF Express and Debon Express confirmed they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, but transportation costs will be adjusted [2] Group 3 - SF Express announced a resource adjustment fee of 0.1-1.5 yuan/kg for packages weighing 20kg or more from January 19 to February 15, with additional fees during the Spring Festival [2] - Debon Express will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.2-0.5 yuan/kg for certain customers and products from January 19 to February 14, with further fees during the Spring Festival [2]

【#多家快递回应春节停运时间#】 6日，#快递停运#冲上微博热搜。中通快递客服称，目前暂未接到停 运通知。正常情况下，春节期间不会收取资源调节费。圆通速递、申通快递、韵达快递客服均表示，春 节期间快递不停，未收到加价通知。中国邮政速递物流客服表示，快递运送全年无休，但有可能会出现 上门取件加价情况，具体规定需看后续通知。京东物流则回应，根据春节期间快递流量情况，部分站点 可能会出现排班情况，且会产生资源调度费，以站点为准。此外，顺丰速运、德邦快递客服均回复春节 期间不停运，但运输费用会有调整。顺丰1月19日—2月15日，将对部分20kg（含）以上快递收取0.1-1.5 元/kg资源调节费。#多家快递公司回应春节停运#（中新经纬） ...

Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector experienced a rise of 1.86% on February 4, with Tian Shun Co. leading the gains, while the overall market indices also showed positive movement [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4102.2, up by 0.85% [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14156.27, increasing by 0.21% [1]. Group 2: Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - Tian Shun Co. (002800) closed at 17.89, with a gain of 5.92% and a trading volume of 94,000 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 167 million yuan [1]. - ST Xuefa (002485) closed at 4.24, up by 4.95% with a trading volume of 50,400 shares [1]. - Milkewei (603713) closed at 63.10, increasing by 3.73% with a trading volume of 26,600 shares [1]. - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.70, up by 3.69% with a trading volume of 197,100 shares [1]. - Jianfa Co. (600153) closed at 69.6, gaining 3.53% with a trading volume of 319,100 shares [1]. Group 3: Fund Flow in Logistics Sector - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 172 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 70.86 million yuan [2]. - Major stocks like SF Holding (002352) had a net inflow of 165 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 16.95 million yuan from retail investors [3]. - Jianfa Co. (600153) had a net inflow of 52.36 million yuan from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 36.65 million yuan from retail investors [3].

Group 1 - The report highlights the accelerated development of the Longqing District by 2025, with significant infrastructure projects such as the completion of the Qinghefang Commercial Street and the Huanghe City Square [1] - The agricultural market area is seeing increased activity with a new fruit trading center and an additional trading area of 130,000 square meters, attracting logistics companies like YTO Express [1] - The new residential projects in the Zhongchuan Bay area are recognized as high-quality housing pilot projects, with the first low-energy passive technology residence being highlighted [1] Group 2 - The completion of major highways and the initiation of the Jizheng High-speed Railway passenger hub are enhancing urban functionality [2] - The implementation of urban beautification projects has led to the recognition of several residential areas as "garden-style residential areas" [2] - A significant reduction in illegal construction incidents by 52% has been achieved through the establishment of a risk prevention mechanism [2]

证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 1）圆通速递举行 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会，强调"守底线、强基 石、开新路"。1 月 26 日，圆通速递 2025 年工作总结暨 2026 年工作部署大会召开， 圆通速递董事局主席喻渭蛟表示：要打造安全畅通、便捷高效、自主可控、可持续、 有韧性的供应链；要贯彻执行国家邮政局局长赵冲久关于深入推进交通强国邮政篇 建设等 9 个方面的工作，要以"守底线、强基石、开新路"为管理理念和工作指南， 做好各项重点工作。圆通速递总裁潘水苗围绕"守底线、强基石、开新路"对 2026 年重点工作作了具 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [14] Core Insights - Since Q4 2025, the growth rate of the express delivery industry has been declining, with growth rates of 7.9%, 5.0%, and 2.3% in October, November, and December 2025 respectively. This slowdown has accelerated the differentiation within the industry, with leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express outperforming second-tier competitors [2][7][23] - Key factors influencing the industry include: 1) The introduction of precise tax audits for e-commerce, increasing compliance costs for merchants; 2) The "anti-involution" measures in express delivery, which have set a clear bottom line for competition and raised logistics costs [7][30][36] - Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to experience a clearer turning point in differentiation, with leading companies likely to continue gaining market share and potentially benefiting from volume, profit, and valuation improvements [8][42] Summary by Sections E-commerce Compliance Costs - The e-commerce tax collection has been strengthened, significantly increasing compliance costs for merchants. The introduction of the "Internet Platform Enterprises Tax Information Reporting Regulations" in June 2025 marks a new phase of tax compliance in the e-commerce sector [30][33] - The tax burden for online merchants has increased, particularly for those with annual revenues exceeding 5 million, as the advantages of non-compliance diminish [30][34] Anti-Involution Measures - The "anti-involution" measures have stabilized express delivery prices, leading to improved profitability for express companies. Since September 2025, the price growth rate has turned positive, enhancing the single-ticket profitability of express services [36][37] - The focus on maintaining a safe bottom line in the industry is expected to continue, with the postal administration prioritizing the regulation of "involution-style" competition in 2026 [36] Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry is anticipated to return to single-digit growth rates, with a clearer differentiation among companies. Leading firms with strong product value propositions and solid financial structures are expected to gain market share [42] - The report highlights the potential for valuation premiums to recover for leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express, as their market share and profit expectations improve [42][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the shipping industry, highlighting the upward potential in both oil and dry bulk markets [7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000, a week-on-week increase of 17% [10][11]. - The BDI index has shown resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, up 21.9% week-on-week, with significant increases in various vessel types [23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Shipping - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have resulted in a significant rise in VLCC freight rates, particularly on the Middle East to China route, which saw a 27% increase to $127,000 per day [10][11]. - The market fundamentals are weakening, with a slowdown in cargo availability and a lack of new cargo in the US Gulf market, leading to a decline in overall market activity [10][11]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The BDI index has shown a remarkable performance during the off-season, with a year-on-year increase of 89% in January, averaging 1759 points [24]. - The strong performance of the BCI index, which increased by 121% year-on-year, is attributed to supply constraints and steady demand from Brazil and West Africa [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for upward trends in both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [27]. - For dry bulk, the report suggests companies like Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [28]. Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in domestic air passenger volume, with average ticket prices rising by 4.3% [29]. - The SCFI index has decreased by 10% week-on-week, indicating a decline in container shipping rates [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [1]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors are driving up VLCC freight rates, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE index rising to $116,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 17%. The Middle East to China route is reported at $127,000 per day, up 27% week-on-week [1][10]. - The BDI index is showing resilience during the off-season, closing at 2148 points, a week-on-week increase of 21.9%. The average BDI for January is reported at 1759 points, a year-on-year increase of 89% [2][23][24]. Summary by Sections Oil Transportation - The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in VLCC freight rates, with the market showing signs of weakness as the supply of cargo from the Middle East is tapering off [1][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price has risen to $69.83 per barrel, a 9.6% increase since January 22, driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply [2][11]. Dry Bulk Transportation - The BDI index has shown strong performance despite seasonal trends, with significant increases in various sub-indices: BCI up 35.8%, BPI up 8.1%, BSI up 4.0%, and BHSI up 3.0% week-on-week [2][23]. - The report highlights that the supply side is constrained due to recent storms affecting shipping schedules, while demand remains robust due to favorable weather conditions for iron ore exports from Brazil [3][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for both oil and dry bulk markets, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping for oil transportation, and Haitong Development and Pacific Shipping for dry bulk [7][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of performance elasticity and dividend value in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and shipping [7][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the transportation sector [5] Core Insights - The dry bulk freight rates have unexpectedly rebounded during the off-season, with significant increases noted in large vessels. The VLCC market saw a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical risks and strong demand for commodities like iron ore and grain [1][2] - The report highlights key companies to watch, including China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, COSCO Shipping International, and CIMC Enric [1][2] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The VLCC freight rates surged again, while dry bulk freight rates showed an unexpected off-season recovery, particularly for larger vessels. The BDI index reached 2148 points on January 30, with the BCI at 3507 points [1][2] - The transportation sector index fell by 1.40%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.96 percentage points. The top-performing segments were shipping, ports, and highways, with gains of 2.19%, 1.42%, and 0.10% respectively [21][22] Travel - Domestic flight ticket bookings for the upcoming Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, reflecting a 16% increase compared to the previous year. The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector due to recovering demand and supportive policies [3][13] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing a resurgence in freight rates, with the index for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to China rising to WS137.2 points, an increase of 42.6 points from the previous day. The dry bulk freight rates are also on the rise, supported by strong demand for iron ore and grain [14][15] - Key companies in the shipping sector include China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping International, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [17] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: the overseas expansion driven by the rapid growth of e-commerce and the internal competition dynamics that favor leading companies. Recommended stocks include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [19][20]

❑ 风险提示：人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、快递价格战恶化、重大海上安 全事故、重大自然灾害等。 推荐（维持） 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 01 日 ❑ 物流：本周 TAC 上海出境空运价格指数周环比-3.9%，同比+0.7%。 地缘情绪推升油运运价,三大航发布 2025 年业绩预告 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，地缘情绪推升油运运价；基础设施方面，优选个股布局 红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面，关注 26 年 行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 3.2 6.1 16.5 相对表现 2.0 -7.3 -6.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—油轮 制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务 量同比增长 13.6%》2026-01-25 2、《招商交通运输行业周报—油运 景气度高涨，国常会研究部署多项促 消费举措》2026-01-18 3、《招商交通运输 ...