文 | 极智GeeTech 2025年，自动驾驶领域站上投资风口的不是"送人"的，而是"拉货"的。 一系列融资、发布与合作证明了这个领域的火热：4月，新石器完成10亿元C+轮融资；九识智能B3轮融 资1亿美元，B轮融资总额近3亿美元；7月，京东物流推出自研VAN无人轻卡；申通快递与菜鸟无人车 达成战略合作，双方将聚焦末端配送场景，加速无人配送规模化应用；8月，白犀牛迎来年内第二轮亿 元融资，其B轮融资总额累计近5亿人民币。有消息称，Momenta也在组建团队，进军无人物流配送车市 场。 在投融资趋冷的背景下，资本仍向该领域密集加注，印证了投资圈对无人物流配送车"规模盈利临界 点"的共识。 不约而同涌向物流配送 2016年，独角兽Waymo从谷歌独立，带动了第一波L4自动驾驶创业大潮。不过由于技术的商业化迟迟 不达预期，不到十年，产业却已历经两落三起。 相比于载人落地的艰难，商用载货场景，成为业内玩家探索的突破口。国家邮政局数据显示，截至2024 年快递物流无人配送车规模化应用已累计超过6000台。 今年以来，商务部等8部门联合印发《加快数智供应链发展专项行动计划》，明确提出推广无人配送车 等智能设备；交通运输 ...

文 丨《 BUG 》栏目 徐苑蕾 近日，有消息称，广东、浙江等多地快递公司陆续对电商客户上调运费，调幅在 0.3 元至 0.7 元之间，并设 1.4 元 / 单的底线价。 多位行业人士向《 BUG 》栏目确认了该涨价消息，称涨价主要针对运费较低的电商客户， 个人散单不受影响。一位业内人士透露，广东本次快递涨价实际从 8 月初就开始陆续执 行，调价幅度各家快递公司会根据自身情况有所不同。 "受影响的电商商家都是本身运费比较低的客户，比如运费 1 块多或者低于 1 块。广东的 广州、深圳、东莞、揭阳、汕头这些地方都是价格洼地，受到的影响会大一些。"该人士 称。 值得注意的是，理论上，快递运费的上涨会带动网点收入和快递员派费同步增长。然而，多 位行业人士对此持保留态度。相比之下，更多一线快递员呼吁，与其期待电商快递涨价，设 立快递员最低派费显得更为重要和紧迫。 据悉，广东、浙江多家快递公司目前已对电商客户涨价。其中广东是重点调价地区，每件调 价幅度在 0.3 元至 0.7 元之间，同时还设定 1.4 元 / 单的底线价。 有业内人士向《 BUG 》栏目透露，本月初广东省邮管局召集了多家主流快递公司开会。本 次涨价实 ...

文 | 《BUG》栏目 徐苑蕾 近日，有消息称，广东、浙江等多地快递公司陆续对电商客户上调运费，调幅在0.3元至0.7元之间，并 设1.4元/单的底线价。 多位行业人士向《BUG》栏目确认了该涨价消息，称涨价主要针对运费较低的电商客户，个人散单不 受影响。一位业内人士透露，广东本次快递涨价实际从8月初就开始陆续执行，调价幅度各家快递公司 会根据自身情况有所不同。 "受影响的电商商家都是本身运费比较低的客户，比如运费1块多或者低于1块。广东的广州、深圳、东 莞、揭阳、汕头这些地方都是价格洼地，受到的影响会大一些。"该人士称。 该人士提到，"受影响的电商商家都是本身运费比较低的客户，比如运费1块多或者低于1块。广东的广 州、深圳、东莞、揭阳、汕头这些地方都是价格洼地，受到的影响会大一点。" 一位圆通业务员也表示，近期电商客户的运费价格已经调整，调价幅度约0.4元/单。他称，"单月发货量 1000件的电商客户，之前运费大概是2.9元/单，现在已经涨到3.3元/单。" 值得注意的是，理论上，快递运费的上涨会带动网点收入和快递员派费同步增长。然而，多位行业人士 对此持保留态度。相比之下，更多一线快递员呼吁，与其期待电商 ...

圆通速递今年以来股价涨25.67%，近5个交易日跌2.52%，近20日涨15.87%，近60日涨35.57%。 资料显示，圆通速递股份有限公司位于上海市青浦区华新镇新协路28号，成立日期1992年12月22日，上 市日期2000年6月8日，公司主营业务涉及综合性快递物流服务。主营业务收入构成为：国内时效产品 86.55%，货代服务5.45%，航空业务2.49%，国际快递及包裹服务1.83%，其他(补充)1.68%，其他 1.64%，增值服务0.37%。 截至3月31日，圆通速递股东户数5.95万，较上期增加15.74%；人均流通股57941股，较上期减少 13.60%。2025年1月-3月，圆通速递实现营业收入170.60亿元，同比增长10.58%；归母净利润8.57亿元， 同比减少9.16%。 8月25日，圆通速递盘中下跌2.03%，截至13:17，报17.38元/股，成交3.79亿元，换手率0.63%，总市值 594.44亿元。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出3146.56万元，特大单买入1191.01万元，占比3.14%，卖出2333.50万 元，占比6.16%；大单买入8049.99 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The express logistics sector is experiencing a price recovery trend, supported by regulatory measures against unhealthy competition, particularly in Zhejiang province, which accounted for 16.9% of national express business volume in H1 2025 [5] - Zhongtong Express reported a 26.8% year-on-year decline in adjusted net profit for Q2 2025, influenced by price competition, despite a revenue increase of 10.3% to 11.83 billion yuan [6] - The air transport sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a long-term supply-demand imbalance favoring price increases, while short-term booking data shows signs of improvement [17] - The shipping industry is projected to see a boost in oil transportation due to OPEC+ production increases and a favorable interest rate environment, with specific companies recommended for investment [18] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express logistics sector is seeing a robust demand, with a total of 164 billion packages delivered in July 2025, marking a 15.1% year-on-year increase [27] - Major express companies like YTO Express and SF Express are showing significant growth in business volume, with SF Express achieving a 33.69% increase in July [7][27] Air Transport - In July 2025, civil aviation achieved a passenger transport volume of 71.82 million, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, and a cargo volume of 86.7 thousand tons, up 15.3% [11][57] - The overall seat occupancy rate for major airlines was 83.06%, slightly down from the previous month [60] Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the BDTI index for oil transportation showing resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties [13][18] - China's port cargo throughput decreased by 2.82% to 26.135 million tons in the week of August 11-17, 2025 [81] Road and Rail - In July 2025, road freight volume increased by 3.28% to 36.99 billion tons, while rail freight volume rose by 3.35% to 4.52 billion tons [47]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on China's Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the express delivery industry in China, specifically discussing the impact of "anti-involution" policies on pricing and profitability within the sector [3][4]. Core Insights 1. **Price Increases in Key Regions** - Express delivery prices have risen in key regions, with Yiwu seeing an increase of RMB0.1 per parcel in July 2025. The current price for a 0.1 kg parcel is above RMB1.2. In Guangdong, prices for 0.1 kg parcels have risen to RMB1.45-1.55, with regular parcels increasing by RMB0.2-0.3 and discount parcels by approximately RMB0.6 [3]. 2. **Impact of Anti-Involution Policies** - The implementation of anti-involution policies has led to stronger price hikes in Guangdong, a key region for express delivery. However, many franchisees may still be operating at a loss due to high operating costs [3]. 3. **New Social Security Regulations** - New regulations effective from September 1, 2025, mandate that employers cannot opt out of social security payments, which will increase costs for express delivery companies by more than RMB0.1 per parcel. This is expected to further support price hikes in the industry [4]. 4. **Rising Delivery Costs** - The expert noted that the mandatory social insurance expenses and long-standing price competition have suppressed delivery fees, affecting couriers' income. The trend of rising delivery fees is also observed in Eastern and Northern China [4]. 5. **Profitability Concerns** - Despite price increases, the expert expressed concerns that the express delivery industry chain may struggle to maintain profitability due to increased mandatory costs. If these costs are passed on to consumers, delivery prices may rise further [4]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Preferred Companies** - The report recommends investing in STO and Yunda, both rated as "Buy" due to their higher earnings resilience. Target prices remain unchanged [5]. 2. **Other Ratings** - YTO and SF Holding-A/H also maintain "Buy" ratings with unchanged target prices. Conversely, Deppon Logistics is rated "Reduce" due to high valuation concerns [5]. Additional Insights - The expert highlighted that the express delivery market is characterized by intense competition, with 30% of the market being low-priced tickets and 7-11% being discount-priced tickets in Guangdong [3]. - The report anticipates more regional policy tailwinds that could drive further re-rating of express delivery companies [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the express delivery industry in China.

Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Express** industry, specifically analyzing the performance of major players in the express delivery market for July 2025 [1][6]. Market Share and Volume - **SF Express** led the market with a **34% YoY volume growth**, followed by **YTO Express** at **21% YoY**. In contrast, **STO Express** and **Yunda** experienced lower growth rates of **12%** and **8% YoY**, respectively, resulting in a loss of market share of **0.4ppt** and **0.9ppt** [2][11]. - **Yunda** continues to lag behind **STO** in both volume and revenue metrics [11]. Revenue Performance - **SF Express** achieved a **15% YoY growth** in domestic express revenue, outperforming **YTO** and **STO**, which recorded **12%** and **10% YoY growth**, respectively. **Yunda** underperformed with only **4% YoY revenue growth**, significantly below the industry average of **9% YoY** [3][11]. - Total revenue for **SF Express** grew by **10% YoY**, despite a **3% YoY drop** in international and supply chain revenue due to trade tensions and declining shipping rates [3]. Average Selling Price (ASP) Trends - The ASP for **SF Express** dropped by **14% YoY** in July, with **YTO** seeing a **7%** decrease, **Yunda** at **4%**, and **STO** at **2%**. **Yunda** maintained the lowest ASP among its peers [4][11]. - On a month-over-month basis, **SF** and **STO** both saw a **1%** decline in ASP, while **YTO** reached a new low in July [4]. Financial Metrics Summary (July 2025) | Metric | SF | Yunda | STO | YTO | Industry | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Revenue (Rmb mn) | 18,657 | 4,120 | 4,287 | 5,371 | 120,640 | | YoY Revenue Growth | 15.0% | 3.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 8.9% | | Volume (mn) | 1,377 | 2,162 | 2,181 | 2,583 | 16,400 | | YoY Volume Growth | 33.7% | 7.6% | 11.9% | 20.8% | 15.1% | | Market Share | 8.4% | 13.2% | 13.3% | 15.8% | nm | | YoY Market Share Change | 1.2ppt | -0.9ppt | -0.4ppt | 0.8ppt | nm | | ASP (Rmb) | 13.55 | 1.91 | 1.97 | 2.08 | 7.36 | | YoY ASP Change | -14.0% | -3.5% | -1.5% | -7.2% | -5.3% | | MoM ASP Change | -0.9% | -0.2% | -1.1% | -1.2% | -1.7% | [5] Additional Insights - The overall market dynamics indicate that smaller players like **STO** and **Yunda** are struggling to maintain their market positions, while **SF Express** continues to show robust growth despite external challenges [11]. - The decline in ASP across all players suggests a competitive pricing environment, particularly for **YTO**, which is aggressively pursuing market share [11]. Conclusion - The express delivery market in China is characterized by significant growth for leading players like **SF Express**, while smaller competitors face challenges in maintaining market share and revenue growth. The competitive landscape is intensifying, with pricing strategies playing a crucial role in market dynamics [11].

因此，从成本端看，若后续快递小哥全员缴纳社保后，快递加盟商的成本增加，经营压力进一步提升， 而反内卷推动下的涨价将覆盖加盟商的新增社保成本，此次反内卷推动下的提价也具备一定的持续性。 各主要快递上市公司业绩弹性大。 公司方面，据国泰君安表示，核心公司主要包括顺丰控股圆通速递、中通速递、韵达股份。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 点评：今年7月，国家邮政局先后召开党组会议及快递企业座谈会，明确提出治理行业内卷式竞争。 国泰海通认为，此轮"反内卷"自上而下将继续深化，后续多地或跟进治理。"反内卷"短期将缓和竞争压 力，更重要的是中长期继续保障良性竞争，有利于行业自然集中。 国盛证券表示，从需求端来看，此次反内卷效果具有一定持续性。最高人民法院强调依法参加社保是法 定义务，新规自9月1日起施行。以每人日均派件500票、按各地标准缴纳社保测算快递小哥全员缴纳社 保后，对单票的平均影响在6分钱。 据红星新闻8月24日报道，电商重镇广东、浙江多家快递公司目前已对电商客户涨价。 其中广东是重点调价地区，每件调价幅度在0.3元至0.7元之间，同时还设定1.4元/单的底线价。有业内 人士表示，广东地区贡献了快递公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the shipping sector, particularly highlighting the potential for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates to strengthen in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that tanker rates have exceeded expectations during the off-season, with VLCC rates expected to perform strongly from September to December due to reduced exports from Iran and increased production in the Middle East [4]. - The report recommends specific companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and highlights the potential for consolidation in the Chinese shipping industry [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of freight volumes in rail and highway transport, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - VLCC rates increased by 32% this week, reaching $45,800 per day, driven by limited supply and increased demand from the Atlantic market [4]. - The report notes that the average export volume from Iran has decreased to 1.3-1.5 million barrels per day, down from 1.7-1.9 million barrels per day in July [4]. - The Suez crude oil tanker rates rose by 15% to $59,563 per day, supported by strong demand from the West African market [4]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 4.9% to 1,944 points, primarily due to a decline in large vessel rates, while smaller vessels showed stronger performance [5]. - The report remains optimistic about the Capesize bulk carrier market in the second half of the year, citing expected increases in shipments from major miners [4]. Air Transport - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" policy from the Civil Aviation Administration is likely to optimize competition in the airline industry, benefiting airline profitability in the long term [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, with a focus on the potential for improved earnings due to supply constraints and demand recovery [4]. Express Delivery - The report anticipates a price increase in the express delivery sector driven by the "anti-involution" policy, with expectations for sustained profitability in the e-commerce delivery segment [4]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted as having strong potential for recovery and valuation improvement [4]. Rail and Highway Transport - Data from the Ministry of Transport indicates that rail freight volume increased by 1.22% week-on-week, while highway freight traffic rose by 3.06% [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yield stocks and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Core Insights - The completion of the civil engineering works for the "Oriental Tian Di Port" marks a significant milestone in the construction of a global air logistics hub, laying a solid foundation for overall operational readiness [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The air cargo station area, covering 492 acres, integrates international, domestic, and platform cargo stations, encompassing core functions such as cargo handling, mail operations, special cargo handling, ULD management, customs clearance, and transshipment [3] - The T1 international cargo station, the largest single building at Jiaxing Airport, exceeds 140,000 square meters and is designed to enhance customs efficiency and logistics experience for high-value imported goods [5] Group 2: Strategic Importance - The Oriental Tian Di Port serves as the first specialized cargo hub in the Yangtze River Delta, with a mission to connect China with the world and enhance the resilience and international competitiveness of regional supply chains [7] - The project aims to create a modern air logistics park that adheres to principles of sharing, efficiency, intelligence, and sustainability, supporting the dual circulation development pattern of the domestic and international markets [7]