岁末年初的物流江湖，正经历一场深刻的资本与产业重构。 顺丰控股与极兔速递83亿港元相互持股开启全球协同新篇章，京东物流推进德邦股份私有化退市 深化"京邦达跨合体 " 整合，叠加顺丰、圆通、京东等龙头企业在低空物流领域的密集布局，中 国快递业正从规模竞争加速迈向以资本协同、科技赋能为核心的价值竞争新阶段。 资本运作密集落地 行业整合迈入深水区 与顺丰的"向外结盟 " 不同，京东物流选择以"向内整合 " 的方式重塑产业格局。1月13日晚间，德 邦股份公告拟主动撤回A股上市申请，成为2026年首家提出主动退市的上市公司。此次退市背 后，是京东物流斥资37.97亿元推进的私有化计划。 从产业逻辑看，德邦退市是京东物流整合进程的关键一步，双方在资本整合基础上，正式迈向业 务与网络深度融合的新阶段。早在2022年京东物流收购德邦股份时，京东物流就提到，未来要打 造综合型寄递物流供应链集团。 德邦股份在公告中提到，此次主动退市的核心原因之一是京东物流此前收购德邦时解决同业竞争 的承诺的履行。京东物流下属境内子公司京东卓风于2022年9月6日出具承诺，自前次要约收购完 成之日起五年内，京东卓风拟通过具有可操作性的方式解决京东 ...

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 1.05% on January 15, with Debon Holdings leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4112.6, down 0.33%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14306.73, up 0.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Debon Holdings (603056) closed at 16.98, up 9.97% with a trading volume of 15,200 [1] - Jiayou International (603871) closed at 14.42, up 3.30% with a trading volume of 185,000 [1] - Tiens Holdings (002800) closed at 17.31, up 3.22% with a trading volume of 113,900 [1] - YTO Express (600233) closed at 17.05, up 2.59% with a trading volume of 335,000 [1] - SF Holding (002352) closed at 39.19, up 1.66% with a trading volume of 474,100 [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 174 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 80.49 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like SF Holding had a net inflow of 164 million yuan from institutional investors, indicating strong institutional interest [3] - Debon Holdings had a significant institutional net inflow of 15.11 million yuan, representing 58.69% of its trading volume [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the express delivery and real estate sectors in Hong Kong, highlighting investment opportunities for 2026. - **Key Companies Mentioned**: - Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - SF Holding (顺丰控股) - JD Logistics (京东物流) - SF Same City (顺丰同城) - YTO Express (圆通速递) - Roman Technology (罗曼股份) - Shanghai Port Bay (上海港湾) - New World Development (新鸿基地产) - Henderson Land Development (恒基地产) - Sino Land (信和置业) Core Insights and Arguments - **Zhongtong Express**: Benefiting from market share growth and a clear trend of differentiation, it is positioned as a key investment in the e-commerce delivery sector with significant valuation recovery potential [1][2]. - **SF Holding and JD Logistics**: Both companies are expected to see performance recovery through cost reduction and efficiency improvements, as well as tightening of loss-making operations, enhancing their operational flexibility [1][3]. - **SF Same City**: Positioned as an independent third-party instant delivery service provider, it is expected to achieve high growth and profit increases due to the development of instant retail [1][3]. - **Roman Technology**: In the AI infrastructure sector, it has a large order scale and strong policy support, with high certainty of performance growth expected in 2025-2026 [1][4]. - **Shanghai Port Bay**: Entering the satellite energy system sector through acquisitions, it stands to benefit from the accelerated development of commercial aerospace and the adoption of perovskite technology, enhancing future demand [1][4]. - **Hong Kong Real Estate Market**: The market is experiencing a recovery in transaction volume and prices, with new home transaction volume expected to reach a 20-year high in 2025 and second-hand home prices rebounding by 8% since April of the previous year [1][5]. - **Interest Rate Expectations**: Anticipated declines in USD interest rates are expected to lower Hong Kong mortgage rates, benefiting major Hong Kong real estate companies such as New World Development, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, improving rental income and stabilizing dividends [1][5][6]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities in Express Delivery**: The express delivery sector in 2026 presents multiple investment opportunities, particularly in companies like Jitu Express, SF Same City, Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, SF Holding, and JD Logistics [2]. - **Focus on Growth Stocks**: Jitu Express is highlighted as a growth stock with high growth potential in Southeast Asia and Latin America, with upcoming quarterly reports expected to catalyze market performance [3]. - **Real Estate Sector Dynamics**: The attractiveness of Hong Kong real estate stocks is underpinned by the recovery of the real estate market, with stable dividends and improved valuations for companies with strong land reserves and rental income [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the investment landscape in the express delivery and real estate sectors for 2026.

中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，"价格战"转向"价值战"背景下，快递业市场份额有望逐步向服务品质 更优、管理能力更强、网络健康度更好的快递企业集中，同时该等企业有望凭借自身资源优势实现更为 显著的降本增效;重点跟踪监管力度、量价表现及头部企业竞争策略变化情况。个股方面重点关注中通 快递-W(02057)、圆通速递（600233）(600233.SH)。建议关注申通快递（002468）(002468.SZ)、韵达股 份（002120）(002120.SZ)及顺丰控股（002352）(002352.SZ)。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 3)行业端：行业件量增速放缓下，价值竞争成关键。"反内卷"背景下，快递价格理性回归，快递轻小件 化趋势减弱，同时电商平台合规经营监管强化有望推动快递件量"去泡沫"，行业件量增速中枢下移预期 下(据2026年全国邮政工作会议，2025年快递业务量同比增长13.7%，预计2026年快递业务量同比增长 8%左右)，"降本、提质、增效"的价值竞争成为快递企业打造竞争优势、获取市场份额的关键。 深挖全链路成本下降潜力，末端决胜逐步成为共识 1)中转环节：随着件量规模不断扩大，规模效应带来的边 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is shifting from a "price war" to a "value war," with market share expected to concentrate among companies that offer better service quality, stronger management capabilities, and healthier networks [1] Policy Aspects - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to continue, effectively curbing vicious competition, with multiple provinces raising express delivery prices. From August to November, the single ticket revenue of A-share "Tongda" express companies has shown a continuous upward trend [2] - The "social insurance new regulations" are anticipated to enhance cost-price transmission paths, potentially leading to increased labor costs in the express delivery industry, which may be passed on to consumers through price hikes [2] Industry Aspects - With the growth rate of express delivery volume slowing, value competition is becoming crucial. The rational return of express prices and the reduction of small parcel trends are expected, with the industry volume growth rate forecasted to decrease [3] - The expected growth rates for express delivery volume are 13.7% year-on-year in 2025 and around 8% in 2026, emphasizing the importance of "cost reduction, quality improvement, and efficiency enhancement" for companies to gain market share [3] Cost Reduction Potential - In the transit segment, the marginal cost reduction effects from scale are diminishing, with major franchise express companies focusing on optimizing routes and improving sorting efficiency. As of H1 2025, the single ticket transit cost for "Tongda" express companies has dropped to approximately 0.60 yuan [4] - In the last-mile delivery segment, which significantly impacts user experience and logistics efficiency, there remains substantial potential for cost optimization through automation and innovation. The cost burden for new technologies is primarily borne by franchisees, making the performance of these networks critical [4]

股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈 述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏 月"）通知，杭州灏月在2025年12月4日至2026年1月13日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500股。现将有关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临2026-007 二、权益变动触及1%刻度的基本情况 注：上述表格中的数据如有尾差，系数据四舍五入所致。 三、其他说明 1.公司于2025年10月17日披露了《圆通速递股份有限公司关于5%以上股东大宗交易减持股份计划的公 告》（公告编号：临2025-064），杭州灏月出于股东自身发展战略和资金筹划考虑，计划自减持计划公 告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内，通过大宗交易方式合计转让公司股份不超过68,450,994股，拟转 让比例不 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Hong Kong/China Transportation and Infrastructure - **2026 Outlook**: More opportunities than risks, with a focus on supply-side opportunities in airlines, tanker shipping, and express delivery, while container shipping faces oversupply concerns [1][2][3] Airlines - **Pricing Trends**: Pricing inflation resumed since October 2025, supported by supply-side constraints and demand recovery from business travel, outbound travel growth, and inbound travel [2][11] - **Demand Drivers**: Business travel recovery positively correlated with capital expenditure, and inbound travel expected to grow, benefiting airlines [2][21] - **Airlines' Up-Cycle**: Chinese airlines are in a multi-year supply-driven up-cycle, with margin upside if pricing performance exceeds expectations [2][11] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight ratings on Air China (0753.HK), China Eastern Airlines (0670.HK), China Southern Airlines (1055.HK), and Spring Airlines (601021.SS) [9][10] Shipping - **Tanker Market**: Increasing demand for compliant tankers due to geopolitical tensions, with limited new supply additions due to low capital expenditure over the past decade [3] - **Container Shipping Risks**: Remains conservative on container shipping due to oversupply concerns [3] - **Key Stocks**: Overweight on COSCO Shipping (1138.HK) and China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS), underweight on COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919.HK) and Orient Overseas (0316.HK) [3] Airports - **Bargaining Power**: Airports are regaining bargaining power through duty-free contract renewals, breaking monopoly dynamics, and increasing shareholdings in duty-free operators [4][54] - **Duty-Free Spending**: Expected upside in duty-free spending with expanded product categories and higher offline sales [4][58] - **Key Stocks**: Equal-weight ratings on Shanghai International Airport (600009.SS), Hainan Meilan Airport (0357.HK), and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (600004.SS), underweight on Beijing Capital International Airport (0694.HK) [53] Express Delivery - **Market Consolidation**: ZTO (ZTO.N) and YTO (600233.SS) are consolidating market share, leading to cost-efficiency gains and margin expansion [5] - **International Expansion**: J&T (1519.HK) expected to consolidate market share in overseas markets through e-commerce partnerships [5] Key Risks and Considerations - **Airlines**: Risks include faster-than-expected aircraft delivery, deterioration in travel demand, unfavorable RMB depreciation, and surging oil prices [52][51] - **Airports**: Continued underperformance in duty-free business due to weak consumption and competition from other channels [54][55] Conclusion - The transportation sector in Hong Kong/China is poised for growth in 2026, driven by supply-side opportunities in airlines and shipping, while airports are regaining power in duty-free operations. However, risks remain, particularly in container shipping and overall economic conditions.

圆通速递1月13日大宗交易平台共发生7笔成交，合计成交量695.35万股，成交金额1.11亿元。成交价格 均为15.90元，相对今日收盘价折价5.24%。从参与大宗交易营业部来看，机构专用席位共出现在7笔成 交的买方或卖方营业部中，合计成交金额为1.11亿元。 进一步统计，近3个月内该股累计发生41笔大宗交易，合计成交金额为10.33亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，圆通速递今日收盘价为16.78元，下跌0.83%，日换手率为0.44%，成交额为 2.54亿元，全天主力资金净流出1420.62万元，近5日该股累计上涨0.78%，近5日资金合计净流出3911.88 万元。 两融数据显示，该股最新融资余额为1.97亿元，近5日减少1805.12万元，降幅为8.40%。（数据宝） 1月13日圆通速递大宗交易一览 | 成交量（万 | 成交金额（万 | 成交价格 | 相对当日收盘折溢价 | 买方营业 | 卖方营业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股） | 元） | （元） | （%） | 部 | 部 | | 231.78 | 3685.30 | 15.90 | -5. ...

证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2026-007 圆通速递股份有限公司 关于 5%以上股东权益变动触及 1%刻度的提示性公告 股东杭州灏月企业管理有限公司保证向本公司提供的信息真实、准确、完整， 没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事局及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 重要内容提示： | 权益变动方向 | 比例增加□ | | 比例减少□√ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益变动前合计比例 | 17.59% | | | | 权益变动后合计比例 | 16.86% | | | | 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 诺、意向、计划 | 是□ | 否□√ | | | 是否触发强制要约收购义务 | 是□ | 否□√ | | 近日，圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）收到杭州灏月企业管理 有限公司（以下简称"杭州灏月"）通知，杭州灏月在 2025 年 12 月 4 日至 2026 年 1 月 13 日期间，通过大宗交易方式转让所持公司股份 25,068,500 股。现将有 关事项公告如下： 一、信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance relative to the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see significant growth in Q4 2025, driven by strong VLCC freight rates and structural changes in trade dynamics, including new refinery capacities and geopolitical shifts [4]. - The aviation sector is projected to enter a golden era, with passenger transport expected to reach 770 million in 2025, marking a 5.5% increase from 2024 and a 16.7% increase from 2019 [4]. - The report highlights a shift in the shipping industry from supply-driven to demand-driven dynamics, particularly in shipbuilding, as older vessels are replaced [4]. - The logistics and freight forwarding sectors are facing challenges due to trade tensions, impacting profit margins and demand [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Q4 2025 VLCC freight rates are expected to average around $95,500 per day, with a projected demand increase of 1.7% from new refinery capacities and a 2.1% increase from compliance changes in Venezuelan oil [4]. - The dry bulk market is also showing strong performance, with Cape-sized vessel rates expected to rise by 20% to $27,600 per day [4]. - The report estimates that COSCO Shipping Energy's Q4 earnings will be approximately 1.9 billion RMB, while China Merchants Energy's will be around 2.9 billion RMB [4]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with second-hand ship prices rising for 11 consecutive months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Freight Forwarding - The freight forwarding sector is facing profit margin compression due to trade frictions, with the CCFI index expected to decline by 26% in Q4 2025 [4]. Aviation - The Chinese aviation market is expected to achieve a profit of 6.5 billion RMB in 2025, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines anticipated to see significant performance improvements [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of international routes as passenger volumes are expected to grow, driven by a recovery in outbound travel [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to see a 5% year-on-year growth in Q4, driven by price increases and seasonal demand, despite challenges from trade policies [4]. Road and Rail - The report notes a slowdown in highway traffic growth, while rail passenger and freight volumes continue to increase, with recommendations for specific companies in the sector [4].