Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has achieved comprehensive profitability for the first time, driven by the growth in e-commerce returns, automation technologies, and improved management practices [2][6][8] Business Growth - In 2024, the average daily business volume in the express delivery industry reached nearly 500 million packages, with major players like YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu exceeding the industry average growth rate of 21% [3][4] - The market share of Zhongtong remains the highest, but the gap with YTO is narrowing, while only Shentong saw an increase in market share compared to 2023 [3] - Reverse logistics and scattered orders have become significant growth sources for express companies, with Jitu reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [3][4] - Shentong's large customer business grew by 260% in 2024, driven by customized solutions for over 20 industries [4][5] Profit Growth - All eight major listed express companies achieved profitability in 2024, with SF Express reporting a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, the highest since its A-share listing [6][7] - JD Logistics and Shentong experienced significant profit growth, with JD Logistics' net profit increasing by 507.2% year-on-year to 7.088 billion yuan [6][7] - Jitu achieved a net profit of 1.1 million USD, marking its first overall profitability, attributed to refined management and technology applications [7] Industry Transformation - The express delivery sector is undergoing a transformation from labor-intensive to technology-driven operations, with companies like Shentong and Debang reducing employee numbers while increasing efficiency through automation [8][9][10] - SF Express reduced its workforce from 153,125 to 147,189, while increasing average annual salary by 7.4% to 217,000 yuan [8] - Yunda and Debang also reported reductions in employee numbers, with Yunda's workforce decreasing to below 10,000 for the first time [9][10]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China showed remarkable performance in 2024, with eight major listed companies achieving a total revenue of approximately 791.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.06%, and a net profit of 35.58 billion yuan, a significant increase of 93.67% [1][2] - The industry is benefiting from digital transformation and the introduction of intelligent systems, which enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs [1][4] Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported the highest net profit growth rate, achieving a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan, up 15.26%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24% [2] - JD Logistics followed with an adjusted net profit growth of 186.8% to 7.9 billion yuan, driven by revenue expansion and refined management [2] - SF Holding's net profit reached 10.17 billion yuan, marking a new high since its listing, supported by supply chain and international business growth [2] - Jitu Express turned around with a net profit of 1.1 billion USD (approximately 7.99 billion yuan) in 2024, recovering from a loss of 11.6 billion USD in 2023 [2] Industry Drivers - The "Express into Villages" initiative has significantly improved logistics networks, with 346,000 village-level logistics service stations established [3] - The rise of live e-commerce contributed to the express delivery sector, with retail sales reaching 4.3 trillion yuan from January to November 2024, accounting for 80% of e-commerce growth [3] Technological Advancements - The express delivery industry is undergoing a technological transformation, with over 90% of large-scale processing centers achieving automation [4] - SF Holding invested 4 billion yuan in automation and logistics infrastructure, increasing its automated sorting rate to 92% and reducing transit costs by 23% compared to three years ago [5] - Yunda Express is enhancing its management efficiency and service quality through continuous digital and intelligent transformation [5] International Expansion - SF Holding has deepened its global presence, winning over 100 overseas supply chain projects, with international revenue growing by 24.81% to 32.16 billion yuan [6] - Yunda Express has expanded its international network, covering over 150 countries, with overseas revenue increasing by 43.13% to 1.03 billion yuan [6] - Other companies like Yunda, Jitu, Zhongtong, and Debang are also accelerating their international strategies through various means [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly with the recommendation of companies such as China Merchants Energy, COSCO Shipping Energy, and Xingtong Co. [3][20] Core Viewpoints - OPEC has agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, which is expected to enhance the certainty of improvement in the shipping market in Q2 [3][20] - The report highlights the resilience of major ports and anticipates improvements in Southeast Asia's shipping and oil tanker sectors [3][20] - The report suggests that the "off-season" for shipping may not be as weak as expected, with a higher probability of strong performance from May to August [3][20] Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - OPEC's production increase will lead to a cumulative increase of 960,000 barrels per day over April, May, and June, which is 44% of the total expected increase of 2.2 million barrels per day [3][20] - The report notes that April shipping rates have risen against seasonal trends, indicating a potential for stronger performance in the second half of the year [3][20] - VLCC rates have decreased by 9% to $46,903 per day, but the overall market remains relatively strong with expectations for a rebound post-holiday [3][20][21] Air Transportation - The report indicates that oil prices, influenced by tariffs and OPEC's production increase, are relieving cost pressures on airlines [40] - The domestic air travel market is expected to recover, with passenger volumes projected to reach 10.75 million during the May Day holiday, a year-on-year increase of 8% [41][40] - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and China Southern Airlines [42] Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is experiencing high growth, with March volumes reaching 16.66 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 20.3% [44] - The report emphasizes the potential for market share concentration among leading companies due to favorable policy changes [44] - Recommended companies include SF Holding, JD Logistics, and YTO Express [46] Railway and Highway - The report highlights the resilience of railway freight and highway truck traffic, with railway cargo volume increasing by 3% and highway truck traffic by 2.25% [48] - The report suggests that traditional high-dividend investment themes and potential value management catalysts will be key investment lines for the highway sector throughout 2025 [48]

证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2025-031 圆通速递股份有限公司 关于控股股东首次增持公司股份暨增持计划进展的 公告 本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 近日，公司收到蛟龙集团通知，基于对公司未来发展的坚定信心和长期投资 价值的认可，为提振投资者信心，蛟龙集团于 2025 年 4 月 29 日至 2025 年 4 月 30 日通过上海证券交易所系统以集中竞价方式增持了公司股份 1,423,300 股， 增持比例为 0.04%，增持金额为 1,854.67 万元（不含交易费用）。现将有关事项 公告如下： 一、增持主体的基本情况 本次增持主体为控股股东蛟龙集团。本次增持前，蛟龙集团持有公司 1,043,118,613 股无限售条件流通股，占公司总股本的 30.26%。蛟龙集团及其一 致行动人合计持有公司 1,265,507,196 股无限售条件流通股，占公司总股本的 36.72%。 二、增持计划的主要内容 基于对公司未来发展的坚定信心和长期投资价值的认可，为提振投资者信心 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has shown significant growth in 2024, with major companies achieving profitability for the first time, driven by e-commerce returns and automation technologies [2][6][4]. Industry Overview - The total express delivery volume and revenue in 2024 reached 1.745 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, marking year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% respectively [2]. - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with the share of express delivery volume and revenue in eastern regions declining while central and western regions are increasing [2]. Company Performance - Major express companies reported daily package volumes increasing from 40-70 million in 2022 to 60-90 million in 2024 [2]. - SF Express achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan with a net profit of 10.17 billion yuan, marking a 23.51% increase in net profit [3][6]. - JD Logistics reported a remarkable net profit growth of 507.2% to 7.088 billion yuan [3][6]. - Yunda and YTO Express experienced a decline in net profit due to intense price competition [2]. Growth Drivers - The rise in e-commerce return rates has significantly contributed to the growth of reverse logistics, with companies like Jitu Express reporting an 80% year-on-year increase in reverse and scattered orders [4][5]. - Companies are focusing on enhancing their reverse logistics capabilities and optimizing revenue structures through scattered order business [4][5]. Automation and Workforce Changes - The industry is increasingly adopting automation technologies such as drones and smart sorting systems, leading to improved operational efficiency [2][9]. - Several companies, including SF Express and Yunda, have reduced their workforce while increasing employee salaries, indicating a shift towards technology-driven operations [9][10]. Market Competition - Despite the overall growth, competition remains fierce, particularly in pricing, which has affected profit margins for some companies [7][6]. - The market share of leading companies is shifting, with Zhongtong maintaining the top position but with narrowing gaps to YTO Express [4][6].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月30日 圆通速递（600233.SH） 优于大市 利润表现有所承压，竞争力持续增强 小 幅 调 整 盈 利 预 测 ， 预 计 2025-2027 年 归 母 净 利 润 分 别 为 43.0/49.0/55.1 亿元，分别同比变化+7%/+14%/+12%（25-26 年调整幅 度分别为-17%/-18%）。快递行业需求维持景气，且圆通具有显著竞争 优势，看好公司的长期投资价值，维持公司"优于大市"评级。 | 盈利预测和财务指标 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 57,684 | 69,033 | 76,490 | 83,083 | 89,813 | | (+/-%) | 7.7% | 19.7% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | | 净利润(百万元) | 3723 | 4012 | 4295 | 4904 | 5512 | | (+/-%) | -5.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 14.2% | 12. ...

圆通速递 20250429 摘要 • 圆通速递 2024 年净利润 40.12 亿元，同比增长 7.78%，其中快递业务净 利润 43.07 亿元，增长 12.16%，但航空货运及国际业务亏损 2.94 亿元。 2025 年 Q1 快递业务量同比增长 21.75%，收入增长 10.58%，净利润 9.47 亿元，航空货运及国际业务亏损 0.9 亿元，香港机场投资亏损包含在 内。 • 2024 年 Q4 单票收入 2.29 元，同比下降 0.14 元，单票成本 2.11 元，同 比下降 0.10 元，单票毛利 0.18 元，同比下降 0.04 元。2025 年 Q1 单票 收入 2.28 元，同比下降 0.16 元，单票成本下降 0.09 元，单票毛利下降 0.08 元。成本控制和盈利能力面临压力。 • 行业价格竞争加剧，但头部企业增速加快，市场份额差距拉大，有利于行 业格局清晰。圆通坚持稳健增长和份额增长并重，但确保利润。预计 2025 年资本开支维持高位，应对行业格局变化，弥补与头部企业差距。 • 圆通坚持全国统一兜底派费政策，并根据网点情况进行标准化模型调整。 价格战提前开始，ASP 降幅难以预测，但总体 ...

Core Viewpoint - YTO Express reported a revenue of 69.033 billion yuan for 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.67%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.012 billion yuan, up 7.78% [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, YTO Express's express delivery business volume reached 26.573 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 25.32%, surpassing the industry average growth rate by 3.8 percentage points [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.060 billion yuan, a 10.58% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.857 billion yuan [1] - The average revenue per express delivery piece decreased to 2.30 yuan in 2024, down 4.86% from 2.41 yuan in the previous year [3][4] Business Segmentation - Domestic time-sensitive products generated a revenue of 5.975 billion yuan, while international express and parcel services saw a revenue decline of 5.58% to 126 million yuan [2] - Value-added services contributed 252.945 million yuan, with a gross margin of 53.16%, and freight forwarding services generated 3.759 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.51% [2] Cost Management - The cost per express delivery piece decreased to 2.09 yuan, down 4.04% from the previous year, with significant reductions in transportation and operational costs [4][5] - The company reported a nearly 12% increase in the number of packages per vehicle and a nearly 10% improvement in labor efficiency by the end of 2024 [5] Strategic Initiatives - YTO Express is focusing on embracing artificial intelligence and advancing smart development, particularly in international business, which has shown limited growth [3][9] - The company plans to enhance its domestic and international networks and improve core services in international express, freight, and supply chain management [8][10] Industry Context - The express delivery industry is experiencing intense price competition, with YTO Express's single-piece revenue declining alongside competitors [6][7] - The industry is shifting towards high-quality development, emphasizing service quality over mere cost advantages [6][7]

上 市 公 司 2025 年 04 月 29 日 圆通速递 (600233) ——业务量保持较高增速，关注行业格局优化机遇 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 13.09 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 19.55/11.97 | | 市净率 | 1.5 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.67 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 45,118 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,288.41/9,855.20 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.44 | | 资产负债率% | 31.68 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 3,447/3,447 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 交通运输 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 ...

"快递进村"和电商业务成为快递公司业绩增长的助力。 圆通在财报中表示，报告期内，公司主营快递业务收入主要来源于电子商务用户，业务结构较为集中。如果未来电子商务 行业增速进一步放缓，而公司除电子商务之外的其他业务板块不能实现较快增长从而提高在整体业务结构中的占比，则公 司经营业绩的持续快速增长可能受到不利影响。 圆通财报还提及，跨境消费需求扩容推动国际业务提质增效，伴随"丝路电商""快递出海"等项目的实施落地，国际及港澳 台快件寄递网络日臻成熟。此外，个性化消费需求催生服务场景多元化，消费者对生鲜冷链、即时配送、逆向物流等服务 需求亦快速增长。 除了上述变化，过去一年快递公司也在提高服务质量。2024 年 3 月，新修订的《快递市场管理办法》正式施行，明确按需 投递原则，强化末端服务监管。圆通财报显示，公司在2024年推行按需派送，提高派件履约率，并不断加强虚假签收考核 管控。截至报告期末，公司虚假签收率同比下降近 28%。 近日，多家快递公司发布了2024年财报。从财报数据看，降本增效仍然是今年快递业关注的重点。 此外，"快递进村"和电商业务成为快递公司业绩增长的助力。在技术应用上，快递业逐步推进无人配送技术 ...