节日期间需求较弱，港口煤价略有上涨 2025 年 10 月 12 日 增持（维持） 证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（9 月 26 日至 10 月 10 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 8 元/吨， 报收 709 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区环渤海四港区日均调入量 176.73 万吨，环 比上周增加 0.86 万吨，增幅 0.46%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应 量有所增加。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 138.36 万吨，环比上周下降 9.3 万吨，降幅 4.7%；日均锚地船舶共 78 艘，环比上周下降 9 艘，降幅 10.82%。 库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 2549.50 万吨，环比上周增加 5.6 万吨，增 幅 0.23% 。港口本周整体调出量下滑，库存绝对值有所上行，主要由于 国庆假期淡季需求较弱导致。 我们分析认为：目前港口库存在供给稳定且需求较弱下去化缓慢，甚至 有累库现象，短期来看煤价预计维持震荡态势，预计后续 10 月中旬后 伴随北方开始取暖，需求或有一定好转，煤价或有上行空间。 ...

证券研究报告 南热北寒需求旺，煤炭红利避险优选 ——煤炭行业周报（10月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2025年10月12日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截止2025年10月10日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨4.3%，沪深300指数下跌0.51%，跑赢沪深300指数4.81个百分点。全板块整周37只股价上涨，0只下 跌。宝泰隆涨幅最高，整周涨幅为13.54%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2025年10月3日-2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为655万吨，周环比减少13%，年同比减少13.6%。其中，动力煤周日均销量 较上周减少13.1%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少11.5%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.3%。截至2025年10月9日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为674万吨，周环比减少100%，年同比减少100%；重 点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2536万吨，周环比增加4.4%，年同比减少9%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量19540 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Views - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a stable and slightly rising trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a strong oscillating trend in late October 2025 [7][8]. - The demand side is supported by higher temperatures leading to increased coal consumption, particularly in coastal and inland provinces. The average daily coal consumption reached 5.486 million tons as of October 9, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 18.82% and a year-on-year increase of 8.29% [7][8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of tighter supply due to regulatory measures against overproduction and adverse weather conditions affecting coal production and transportation [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 185.34 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 181.40 billion yuan [2]. 2. Price Tracking - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 710 yuan per ton as of October 10, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5 yuan per ton [8]. - The average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines was 5.529 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.23% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.42% [8]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The report notes that the Daqin line has begun its autumn maintenance, which will reduce daily transport capacity and may lead to further inventory depletion at ports [8]. 4. Downstream Performance - The steel market is entering a traditional peak season, which is expected to improve the demand for coking coal. The average daily pig iron production has remained above 2.4 million tons [7][8]. 5. Company Performance - Key companies recommended for investment include Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Shanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group, and others, which are expected to benefit from the improving coal price environment [8][12].

| 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600256 广汇能源 | | 1.82 Z | 15.76% | -8211.61万 | -7.12% | -9971.57万 | -8.65% | | 601857 中国石油 | | 7263.56万 | 6.67% | -7929.64万 | -7.28% | 666.08万 | 0.61% | | 000819 岳阳兴长 | | 5938.10万 | 10.75% | -4870.13万 | -8.81% | -- - 1067.97万 | -1.93% | | 600028 中国石化 | | 5733.05万 | 8.33% | -4728.21万 | -6.87% | -1004.85万 | -1.46% | | 600346 恒力石化 | | 3672.00万 | 7.11% | 4050.94万 | 7.85% | -7722.94万 | -14.96% ...

从资金流向上来看，当日炼化及贸易板块主力资金净流入3.35亿元，游资资金净流出9142.99万元，散户 资金净流出2.44亿元。炼化及贸易板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入(元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入(元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入(元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601857 | 中国石油 | 1.13 Z | 6.51% | -1.07亿 | -6.15% | -618.26万 | -0.36% | | 600256 广汇能源 | | 8658.64万 | 10.93% | -4144.26万 | -5.23% | -4514.37万 | -5.70% | | 600028 中国石化 | | 6874.65万 | 8.81% | -4736.82万 | -6.07% | -2137.84万 | -2.74% | | 000819 岳阳兴长 | | 5879.16万 | 31.66% | -3562.58万 | -19.19% | -2316.58万 | -12.48% ...

2020-2025年1-8月中国原油产量统计图 上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,大庆华科（000985）,广汇能源（600256）,潜能恒 信（300191）,ST海越（600387） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国石油行业发展策略分析及投资前景研究报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国原油产量为1826万吨，同比增长2.4%；2025年1-8月中国原油 累计产量为14485.8万吨，累计增长1.4%。 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 ...

Core Insights - The strategic cooperation agreement between Transfar Group and the Xiaoshan District People's Government aims to promote deep integration of technological and industrial innovation through the "2+3+X" advanced manufacturing system [1] - The initiative focuses on developing industrial clusters in chemical engineering, biotechnology, and intelligent technology, enhancing the development capabilities of Transfar Science City [1] - The project includes the construction of a major innovation platform for "pilot testing-industrialization" and aims to establish Xiaoshan as a world-class hub for biotechnology and intelligent technology [1] - Additionally, the collaboration will support the construction of the "Five Good and Two Suitable" model village in Xiejing'an, contributing to common prosperity and rural revitalization [1]

Core Viewpoint - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.75% on September 30, with Daqing Huake leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.35% [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The closing price of the Shanghai Composite Index was 3882.78, and the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13526.51 [1]. - The refining and trading sector saw various individual stock performances, with Bohai Chemical leading with a rise of 4.49% to a closing price of 3.96 [1]. - Other notable performers included Bohui Co. (+2.04%), Guanghui Energy (+1.41%), and Runbei Hangke (+1.37%) [1]. Group 2: Trading Volume and Value - Bohai Chemical had a trading volume of 416,000 shares, with a transaction value of 165 million yuan [1]. - Guanghui Energy recorded a trading volume of 718,400 shares, with a transaction value of 360 million yuan [1]. - The total transaction values for other companies in the sector varied, with Runbei Hangke at approximately 31.02 million yuan and Dongfang Shenghong at around 131 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 241 million yuan from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of approximately 29.64 million yuan [3]. - Speculative funds recorded a net inflow of 211 million yuan into the sector [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have rebounded above 700 yuan per ton, with a peak of 706 yuan per ton observed recently. The demand for non-electric coal is expected to be a highlight in the upcoming months [3][4] - The report emphasizes that both thermal coal and coking coal prices have reached a turning point, with expectations for further price recovery due to supply-demand dynamics and seasonal demand shifts [4][5] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy coal type, with prices expected to recover to long-term contract prices. The current price has surpassed the second target price, which is around 700 yuan per ton. Future expectations suggest a potential recovery to a third target price of approximately 750 yuan per ton by 2025, with a fourth target price around 860 yuan per ton [4][13] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market dynamics, with target prices set based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices. The current ratio indicates target prices for coking coal at 1608 yuan, 1680 yuan, 1800 yuan, and 2064 yuan corresponding to thermal coal's target prices [4][13] Investment Recommendations - The report outlines a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for rebound, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand expectations [5][14] - Four main lines of coal stock selection are recommended: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 1.37%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.44 percentage points. The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 13.49, and the PB ratio is 1.26, ranking low among all A-share industries [8][30][31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The supply side is constrained, with the sample coal mine capacity utilization rates for thermal coal at 93.8% (+0.5 percentage points) and coking coal at 86.46% (+1.81 percentage points) [11][46] - Demand has shown a decrease in daily consumption in inland and coastal provinces, with inland provinces down by 37.80 thousand tons/day (-11.14%) and coastal provinces down by 12.50 thousand tons/day (-5.61%) [11][47] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to strengthen due to rigid supply constraints, seasonal demand increases, and maintenance impacts on transportation lines [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of September 27, the market price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port is 703 RMB/ton, up by 4 RMB/ton [29] - The price for coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1710 RMB/ton, an increase of 100 RMB/ton [31] 2. Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is reported at 93.8%, while for coking coal it is 86.46% [46] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased, while coal inventories have increased [47] 3. Industry Performance - The coal sector has shown a decline of 1.44% this week, underperforming compared to the broader market [14][17] - The report highlights that the coal sector remains characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, indicating a strong investment opportunity [12][14] 4. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal sector is likely to experience a tightening supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high barriers to entry and strong cash flow characteristics for quality coal companies [12][11] - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with stable operations and strong performance, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others [12]