Group 1: Industry Overview - According to Raytad Energy, global upstream exploration and development spending is expected to be around $600 billion in 2025, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, with deepwater investments projected to decline by 6% [1] - China's crude oil production has rebounded since 2019 due to a long-term strategy for increasing reserves and production, with a CAGR of 2.2% from 2019 to 2024, while natural gas production has a CAGR of 7.3% during the same period [1] - The "Big Three" oil companies in China have significantly increased capital expenditures from 2020 to 2023 and are expected to maintain high levels in 2024 and 2025, which will support upstream reserve growth and benefit their oil service subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, major oil service companies benefited from the ongoing domestic "increase reserves and production" initiative and the gradual release of overseas business performance, leading to improved operational quality despite falling oil prices [2] - CNOOC's oil service subsidiary reported a 23.3% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, while other companies like Haiyou Development and Haiyou Engineering saw net profit changes of +13.1% and -8.2% respectively, with the latter experiencing a 27% increase in gross profit [2] - The annualized ROE for CNOOC's oil service companies in the first half of 2025 showed resilience, with CNOOC at +1.5 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024, indicating a potential improvement in international competitiveness [2] Group 3: Market Performance - As of January 13, 2026, the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) rose by 0.81%, with significant increases in stocks such as CNOOC's oil service (+6.03%) and China National Petroleum (+3.57%) [3] - The oil and gas ETF (159697) increased by 1.15%, reflecting a four-day consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 1.23 yuan and a net subscription of 15 million units [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index account for 67.11% of the index, including major players like China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC [3]

【宏观扰动：地缘扰动较多，或推动油价短期走高】 中信期货表示，地缘短期扰动仍然较多。后期地缘前景仍是主导原油供应预期的核心因素，油价在供应过剩及地缘扰动频发的相互制衡下延续震 荡，短期重点关注地缘相关的冲高风险。（来源于中信期货20260113《地缘⽀撑油价，化⼯⾼估值追⾼需谨慎》） 中信证券认为，地缘政治风险或推动油价短期走高，但考虑到当前全球原油市场仍处于供给宽松格局，预计油价仍将在60~70美元/桶扰动。考虑 到委内瑞拉石油短期供给缺口或在100万桶/天左右，预计短期油价将上行。 1月13日，A股市场走势分化，沪指震荡回调，油气板块冲高！截至13:38，油气ETF汇添富(159309)上涨1.98%，盘中价格创上市以来新高，冲击4 连涨。资金涌入油气板块，油气ETF汇添富(159309)盘中吸金超360万元！ 【油气ETF汇添富(159309)标的指数前十大成分股】 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 申万一级行业 | 涨跌幅 | 估算权重 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002353 | 本瑞股份 | 机械设备 | -2.21% | 9.85% ...

消息面上，全球区域局势持续推升油价，油运市场景气上行。国内方面，2025年，华北油田原油年产量 突破500万吨。这是自2024年以来，该油田原油年产量连续两年突破500万吨。 油气ETF紧密跟踪国证石油天然气指数，国证石油天然气指数反映沪深北交易所石油天然气产业相关上 市公司的证券价格变化情况。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，国证石油天然气指数(399439)前十大权重股分别为中国石油、中国石 化、中国海油、杰瑞股份、广汇能源、招商轮船、新奥股份、九丰能源、中远海能、大众公用，前十大 权重股合计占比67.11%。 油气ETF(159697)，场外联接(A：019827；C：019828；I：022861)。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 东方证券指出， 委内瑞拉短期原油出口或仍受限，长期出口或合法化提振合规市场油运需求。2025年 委内瑞拉原油产量约占全球1%，原油海运出口量约占全球2%。其中原油海运出口中约17%出口至美 国，五成以上通过影子船队出口至亚洲。短期看，2025年12月委内瑞拉原油海运量环比下降7%，影响 相对有限。长期看，若美国增加对委内瑞拉石 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is entering a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors aligning, making it an opportune time to invest in coal stocks [5] Price Trends - As of January 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 696 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1650 RMB/ton as of January 9 [3] - International thermal coal prices show mixed trends, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 71.8 USD/ton (up 0.3 USD) and ARA6000 at 95.3 USD/ton (down 1.8 USD) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 90.3%, up 8.2 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization is at 85.34%, up 5.7 percentage points [3] - Coastal provinces show an increase in daily coal consumption by 29.90 thousand tons/day (+15.11%), while inland provinces see a decrease of 7.40 thousand tons/day (-1.81%) [4][5] - Chemical coal consumption has increased by 8.36 thousand tons/day (+1.13%) [4] Inventory Levels - As of January 8, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 111.60 million tons (-3.17%), while inland provinces saw a larger drop of 409.00 million tons (-4.15%) [4] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a recommendation to invest in quality coal companies [7] - Companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others are highlighted for their stable operations and strong performance [7] - The coal market is expected to remain tight in the next 3-5 years, with a focus on the potential for price increases and valuation recovery [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Insights - The port thermal coal spot price increased by 17 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 699 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 12.17% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose by 4.15% [1][30] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 4.75% week-on-week, indicating a marginal decline in overall inventory levels, which, combined with the release of rigid demand, has driven coal prices upward. However, the report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a volatile trend due to high temperatures and competition from renewable energy sources [1][35] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.41% week-on-week, while the coal sector index increased by 5.70% [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 742 million CNY, a significant increase of 222% week-on-week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices showed a stable increase, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rising by 56 CNY/ton to 606 CNY/ton [17] - The port thermal coal price at Qinhuangdao increased by 17 CNY/ton, closing at 699 CNY/ton [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 154.18 million tons, up 12.17% week-on-week, while the outflow was 161.95 million tons, up 4.15% [30] - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports increased by 22% week-on-week, indicating heightened shipping activity [35] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending thermal coal elastic stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations [2][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the coal industry, including Shanxi Coking Coal, Lu'an Mining, Yancoal Energy, China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others [5]. Core Views - The coal market is expected to see strong marginal improvements in supply and demand, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise due to high electricity demand during the cold weather and a reduction in port inventories [6][8]. - The demand side remains resilient, with non-electric demand and electricity demand both expected to maintain high levels. The report highlights that steel production and chemical industry coal consumption are driving this demand [8]. - On the supply side, there are expectations of reduced coal production due to regulatory changes and potential capacity cuts in key mining regions, which could further tighten supply [8]. - The report suggests that investors should consider low-entry opportunities in the coal sector, focusing on companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, as well as those with significant production capacity growth [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Views and Operational Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend policies and growth prospects for listed companies in the coal sector, indicating a focus on stable earnings and potential for future growth [12][14]. 2. Coal Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices, including indices for thermal coal and coking coal, highlighting recent price movements and trends in both domestic and international markets [9][10]. 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - There is a focus on coal production levels and inventory status, with recent data showing a decrease in port coal inventories, indicating improved supply-demand dynamics [8][10]. 4. Downstream Performance in the Coal Industry - The report tracks downstream consumption patterns, including daily coal usage by power plants and trends in steel and cement prices, which are critical for understanding overall coal demand [9][10]. 5. Recent Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report analyzes the recent performance of the coal sector, noting fluctuations in stock prices and market sentiment, while also providing forecasts for key companies [8][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07%, marking a 15-day consecutive rise, driven by geopolitical conflicts that boosted the oil and gas sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) rose over 1.6% with a net inflow of 1.17 million yuan, continuing its two-day capital attraction [1] - The performance of the underlying index components of the oil and gas ETF was mixed, with International Industry, Xue Ren Group, and Huibo Po hitting the daily limit, while China Petroleum and China Oil & Gas saw declines of over 1% [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Impact - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to a reassessment of Venezuela's role in global oil supply, with potential long-term implications for oil prices [6] - The expected recovery of Venezuelan oil production faces challenges such as aging oil fields, weak infrastructure, high costs, and political instability, making a return to historical production levels difficult [6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The oil sector is experiencing a gradual recovery, with high dividend characteristics highlighted by Changjiang Securities, indicating a positive outlook for leading companies in the midstream and upstream sectors [7] - The sector's cash flow stability and high dividend yield are expected to attract renewed valuation, especially with the backdrop of economic recovery and potential interest rate cuts [7] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The oil and gas ETF Huatai (159309) focuses on the upstream and downstream of the oil and gas industry, presenting significant long-term investment value amid external uncertainties [8]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth of China's natural gas production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a year-on-year increase in output and a significant cumulative production figure for 2025 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's natural gas production reached 21.9 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [1] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative natural gas production in China was 238.93 billion cubic meters, showing a cumulative increase of 6.3% [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Listed companies in the natural gas sector include China Petroleum (601857), China Petrochemical (600028), Guanghui Energy (600256), Xintian Gas (603393), Shouhua Gas (300483), Lanyan Holdings (000968), and Xinchao Energy (600777) [1] Group 3: Research and Analysis - The report titled "China Natural Gas Market Operation Status and Development Potential Analysis Report (2026 Edition)" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1] - Zhiyan Consulting has over a decade of experience in industry research, providing in-depth reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% on January 7, with 17 out of the 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the comprehensive and coal industries, which increased by 3.86% and 2.47% respectively [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw the largest decline, dropping by 1.73%, followed by the non-bank financial sector, which fell by 1.13% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 54.336 billion yuan, with only four sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The telecommunications sector had the highest net inflow, amounting to 4.752 billion yuan, while the coal sector followed with a net inflow of 1.870 billion yuan [1] Oil and Petrochemical Sector Details - The oil and petrochemical sector experienced a net outflow of 999.3 million yuan, with 12 out of 47 stocks in the sector rising and 35 declining [2] - Among the stocks with net inflows, the top performer was Unified Holdings, which saw an inflow of 74.91 million yuan, followed by Guanghui Energy and Bohai Chemical with inflows of 39.62 million yuan and 19.58 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the highest net outflows included China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which had an outflow of 504.09 million yuan, and China Petroleum with an outflow of 129.66 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Performance - The following stocks in the oil and petrochemical sector had significant net outflows: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation: -4.03% with a net outflow of 503.91 million yuan [2] - China Petroleum: -3.60% with a net outflow of 129.66 million yuan [2] - Hengli Petrochemical: -0.80% with a net outflow of 125.78 million yuan [2] - Conversely, Unified Holdings had a notable increase of 4.27% with a substantial net inflow of 74.91 million yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at a slight decline of 0.17%, indicating a mixed performance among its major holdings [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Energy ETF Guangfa (159945) opened at 1.192 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.17% [1] - Since its establishment on June 25, 2015, the fund has achieved a return of 19.49%, with a recent one-month return of 0.29% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - China Shenhua opened with an increase of 0.54% [1] - China Petroleum experienced a decline of 1.17% [1] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry rose by 0.90% [1] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation fell by 0.65% [1] - CNOOC saw a decrease of 1.14% [1] - Jereh Group dropped by 0.74% [1] - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company increased by 1.11% [1] - Guanghui Energy remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] - China Coal Energy rose by 0.69% [1] - Shanxi Coking Coal increased significantly by 3.95% [1]