Market Overview - The railway and highway sector experienced a decline of 1.21% on November 21, with Jiangxi Changyun leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down 2.45%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down 3.41% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Jiangxi Changyun saw a significant drop of 7.33%, closing at 6.70, with a trading volume of 89,100 shares and a transaction value of 61.79 million [2] - Other notable declines included Wuzhou Transportation down 7.01% to 3.98, and Fulian Yuanshan down 5.68% to 9.46 [2] - The highest trading volume was recorded for Jinghu High-speed Railway, with 1.5171 million shares traded, closing at 5.11, down 0.58% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The railway and highway sector saw a net outflow of 404 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 371 million [2][3] - The main stocks with significant capital inflows included Jinghu High-speed Railway with a net inflow of 21.17 million from institutional investors [3] - Conversely, stocks like Ningshu High-speed experienced a net outflow of 834,400 from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huachuang Securities indicates that the highway sector is expected to maintain resilience in 2026, with high dividend configurations being a preferred investment direction. The port industry is anticipated to shift from a single container-driven growth model to a dual-wheel structure of stable container growth (5%-8%) and a recovery in bulk cargo (2%-5%) by 2026, with stable pricing expected. There are strategic layout opportunities for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that focus on dividends and returning to growth expectations in the coming year [1]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is viewed as a preferred option for stable asset allocation due to low valuations and high dividends, with expected dividend yields around 5% for leading highway companies in 2026. Notable companies include Sichuan Chengyu (5.6%), Shandong Highway (5.0%), and Anhui Wantong Highway (5.0%), with higher yields for H-shares [2]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests strong performance driven by stable volume and pricing, alongside significant cost reduction opportunities. Key factors include potential optimization of toll policies and a favorable interest rate environment that could alleviate operational pressures for highway companies [2]. - High dividend characteristics are expected to remain stable in 2026, with clear three-year return plans from leading companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway [2]. Port Sector - The port sector is entering a strategic value era, transitioning from a perception of cyclical capacity assets to being recognized as global supply chain security hubs. This shift is driven by geopolitical factors and the need for strategic asset control [3]. - The industry is expected to see stable throughput and pricing in 2026, with a dual growth model of container stability and bulk cargo recovery. The average dividend payout ratio is projected to be 37.46%, indicating significant potential for increases [3]. Railway Sector - Passenger transport is expected to see steady growth, with flexible pricing mechanisms in place. Freight transport is also showing signs of improvement, particularly in coal and other cargo types [4][5]. Bulk Supply Chain - The bulk supply chain is poised for a new growth phase in 2026, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu leading the way in transformation logic focused on profit margin enhancement and investor returns. The operational environment is recovering, with strong performance trends evident since 2025 [6][7]. - Strategic layout opportunities exist for leading companies in the bulk supply chain that emphasize dividends and growth expectations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The company continues to favor A/H share transportation assets, highlighting the importance of industry logic and valuation elasticity. Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu and Wantong Highway for their stable growth and high dividends, as well as other notable companies in the highway and port sectors [8].

Group 1 - Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Company (00177.HK) was increased by Jiangsu Transportation Holding Co., Ltd. by 10.784 million shares at an average price of HKD 10.0313 per share, involving approximately HKD 108 million [1] - After the increase, Jiangsu Transportation Holding Co., Ltd. holds a total of 38.436 million shares, raising its ownership percentage from 2.26% to 3.15% [1]

Core Insights - Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd. increased its stake in Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway (600377) by acquiring 10.784 million shares at a price of HKD 10.0313 per share, totaling approximately HKD 108 million [1] - Following the acquisition, Jiangsu Communications Holding's total shareholding in Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway reached approximately 38.436 million shares, representing a 3.15% ownership stake [1] - The combined holdings of Jiangsu Communications Holding and its controlled enterprises in Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway's A-shares amount to 2,743,108,825 shares, accounting for 54.4511% of the total shares of Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd. has increased its stake in Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Co., Ltd. by acquiring 10.784 million shares at a price of HKD 10.0313 per share, totaling approximately HKD 108 million, resulting in a new holding of about 38.436 million shares, representing 3.15% of the company [1] Group 1 - Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd. now holds approximately 38.436 million shares of Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Co., Ltd. after the recent purchase [1] - The total amount spent on the acquisition was around HKD 108 million [1] - The new holding represents a 3.15% ownership stake in Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - Jiangsu Communications Holding Co., Ltd. and its controlled enterprises collectively hold 2,743,108,825 A-shares of Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Co., Ltd. [1] - The total A-share equity held by these enterprises accounts for 54.4511% of Jiangsu Ninhuhighway Co., Ltd.'s total shares [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates initially declined but then increased, with a divergence in container shipping rates on long-distance routes. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rose to 2231.96 points, up 9.5% from November 6 [2][13] - Volant Aviation completed a multi-hundred million yuan Series B financing round, and the C919 aircraft made its debut at the Dubai Airshow [2][15] - Jitu Express reported over 100 million packages on "Double Eleven," marking a 9% year-on-year increase, with an average daily package volume of 94.59 million during the peak season [2][23] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates fluctuated, with the CTFI at 2231.96 points, a 9.5% increase from November 6. The VLCC market is optimistic about future rates due to tight vessel availability [2][13] - Volant Aviation's Series B financing was led by Huaying Capital, with existing shareholders also increasing their investments. The C919 aircraft is set to showcase its capabilities at the 2025 Dubai Airshow [2][15] - Jitu Express achieved a record-breaking package volume during "Double Eleven," with a total of 1.3938 billion packages collected nationwide from October 21 to November 11, reflecting a 17.8% increase in daily average volume [2][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index was 5356.00 points, down 2.5% year-on-year [27][28] - Domestic freight flights increased by 0.32% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 11.12% [28] - The SCFI index reported a decrease of 2.92% week-on-week, while the CCFI index increased by 3.39% week-on-week [35] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing industrial products export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to the transportation demand increase driven by the construction of hydropower stations in the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream [4] - Investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, with a recommendation for CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Recommendations for highway and railway sectors, including Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [4] - E-commerce and express delivery investment opportunities, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [4]

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Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway's stock transfer from HSBC to Citibank indicates a significant shift in shareholder structure, with a market value of HKD 538 million, representing 4.49% of the total shares [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway reported revenue of approximately CNY 12.981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was about CNY 3.837 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.86% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at CNY 0.7617 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway's stock transfer and financial performance indicate a shift in shareholder structure and a decline in revenue and profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Group 1: Shareholder Activity - On November 10, 2023, shareholders of Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway transferred shares from HSBC Hong Kong to Citibank, with a market value of HKD 538 million, representing 4.49% of the total shares [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway reported revenue of approximately CNY 12.981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.66% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately CNY 3.837 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.86% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at CNY 0.7617 [1]

Summary of Jiangsu Expressway - H/A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Expressway - **Ticker**: 177 HK (H shares), 600377 CH (A shares) - **Market Cap**: $6.133 billion (H shares), $9.658 billion (A shares) [4][27] Key Industry Insights - **Sector**: Infrastructure, Industrials & Transport - **Performance**: Jiangsu Expressway has shown solid operational performance and cost efficiencies in 3Q25, supporting a positive outlook [2][12] - **Market Context**: H shares have declined by 5% and A shares by 15% since June, while the CSI300 index gained 11%, attributed to fund rotation into growth names [2] Financial Performance - **3Q25 Results**: - Revenue growth of 6.6% year-over-year (Y/Y) for Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway, driven by a 12% increase in truck traffic [6] - Cost of revenue decreased by 5.6% Y/Y, with expectations for continued decline in road maintenance costs [6] - **Earnings Estimates**: - 4Q25 earnings expected to rise by 15% Y/Y due to resilient toll revenue and cost-reduction efforts [6] Dividend and Valuation - **Dividend Yield**: 5.7% for Jiangsu Expressway - H, with a commitment to maintain dividend stability [2][12] - **Price Target**: - H shares: HK$11.00 by Dec-26 [4][17] - A shares: Rmb15.00 by Dec-26 [27][41] - **Valuation Metrics**: - Adjusted EPS for FY25E: Rmb0.95, FY26E: Rmb1.01 [9][27] Strategic Initiatives - **Expansion Projects**: - Ongoing preparations for the Shanghai-Nanjing Expressway expansion, with completion aimed before the concession expires in 2032 [8] - Several major projects are progressing as scheduled, including the Ningyang Yangtze River Bridge North Connection and Xitai Project [7][8] - **Regulatory Environment**: - Anticipated revisions to the National Tollroad Regulation Policy, potentially extending concession periods and promoting balanced tolling [6] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Larger-than-expected decline in traffic, higher-than-expected capital expenditures for new projects, and less favorable toll-road industry policy terms [23][42] - **Upside Risks**: - Larger-than-expected increase in traffic and lower-than-expected capital expenditures [42] Conclusion - **Investment Stance**: Overweight on Jiangsu Expressway - H due to solid fundamentals, attractive yield, and growth potential in the toll-road sector [2][12][21] - **Neutral on Jiangsu Expressway - A** due to valuation concerns after recent price rallies [30][40]