Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 was under pressure due to a downturn in the main product market, with total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit of 3.57 billion yuan, down 43% [5][6] - The production launch of the Jingzhou base is expected to solidify the company's long-term competitiveness, with new projects enhancing production capacity and product offerings [7][8] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in industry demand, which, combined with the increased production capacity from the Jingzhou base, could lead to improved profitability in the future [8][9] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 79 billion yuan in Q4 2023, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [5] - The overall revenue for 2023 was 273 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [5][6] Product and Project Developments - The Jingzhou base's gas power platform and syngas comprehensive utilization projects were launched, with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of acetic acid, 150,000 tons of DMF, and 150,000 tons of mixed amine [7] - The high-end solvent project was officially launched in December 2023, with an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate and 300,000 tons of ethyl methyl carbonate [7] Market Conditions - The chemical industry faced significant challenges in 2023, including demand contraction and supply shocks, leading to a decrease in product prices and profit margins [6][8] - The report notes that while some product price spreads improved, they remained at low levels, impacting the company's profitability [7][8] Profit Forecasts and Valuation - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 downwards by 26%, predicting net profits of 4.66 billion yuan and 5.65 billion yuan respectively, with an EPS of 2.19 yuan and 2.66 yuan [10] - The company is expected to benefit from increased production capacity and improved utilization rates, which could significantly enhance profitability in the coming years [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company with a target price of Rmb36.89, representing a potential upside of 1.21% from the current price of Rmb26.40 [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of Rmb27.26 billion in 2023, a year-on-year decline of 9.87%, and a recurring net profit of Rmb3.703 billion, down 42.28% year-on-year. The decline in revenue was primarily attributed to falling product prices [5][13][14]. - The company is actively advancing major projects to enhance production capacity, which is expected to provide long-term growth opportunities. Significant projects include the completion of the Jingzhou base phase I project and the ongoing development of new energy and new materials projects [15][16]. - The company has implemented measures to reduce energy and material consumption while increasing product volume, thereby consolidating its low-cost advantage [16]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are Rmb34.33 billion, Rmb36.64 billion, and Rmb39.11 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 26%, 7%, and 7% [2][9]. - Projected net profits for the same years are Rmb4.614 billion, Rmb5.240 billion, and Rmb5.589 billion, with growth rates of 29%, 14%, and 7% [2][9]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is expected to be Rmb2.17 in 2024, Rmb2.47 in 2025, and Rmb2.63 in 2026, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates due to falling product prices [6][17]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 20.9% in 2023 to 22.8% by 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [2][12]. Market Performance - The company's stock has underperformed in the past year, with a decline of 23.1% over the last 12 months, while it has outperformed the MSCI China index by 23.1% [2][3]. - The market capitalization is reported at Rmb56.06 billion (approximately US$7.75 billion) with an average daily trading volume of US$50.64 million [1][2].

基础化工/农化制品 公 司 研 华鲁恒升（600426.SH） 两大基地协同齐头并进，看好氨醇能效领跑者成长 究 2024年04月03日 ——公司信息更新报告 投资评级：买入（维持） 金益腾（分析师） 张晓锋（分析师） 宋梓荣（联系人） jinyiteng@kysec.cn zhangxiaofeng@kysec.cn songzirong@kysec.cn 日期 2024/4/2 证 书编号：S0790520020002 证书编号：S0790522080003 证书编号：S0790123070025 当前股价(元) 26.40  Q4化工景气度环比下行拖累公司业绩，新基地顺利投产，维持“买入”评级 公 一年最高最低(元) 35.95/23.32 2023 年公司实现营收 272.60 亿元，同比-9.87%；实现归母净利 35.76 亿元，同 司 信 总市值(亿元) 560.56 比-43.14%。Q4公司实现营收79.14亿元，环比+13.26%；实现归母净利6.49亿 息 流通市值(亿元) 558.47 元，环比-46.73%；实现归母扣非净利润8.00亿元。2023年受需求收缩、供给冲 更 总股本( ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" [1][3]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance due to industry downturns, but project contributions are expected to provide incremental growth [1][3]. - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [1][4]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the coal chemical industry, leveraging its flexible production capabilities and low-cost advantages to expand its product lines in response to market changes [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company’s gross profit margin was 20.85%, a decrease of 8.09 percentage points year-on-year [1][4]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 32.73 billion yuan, 37.77 billion yuan, and 41.30 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 15.4%, and 9.3% respectively [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.67 billion yuan, 5.81 billion yuan, and 6.73 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with growth rates of 30.5%, 24.5%, and 16.0% respectively [3][4]. Product Performance Summary - The company’s revenue from new energy materials, organic amines, fertilizers, and acetic acid and derivatives in 2023 were 15.48 billion yuan, 2.67 billion yuan, 5.68 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of 5.61%, -55.38%, 2.86%, and -2.59% respectively [1][4]. - The sales volume for these products was 2.18 million tons, 0.52 million tons, 3.26 million tons, and 0.72 million tons, with year-on-year changes of 20.20%, 8.80%, 14.89%, and 24.20% respectively [1][4]. Future Growth Potential - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in its Dezhou and Jingzhou bases, which will enhance its product structure and growth potential [3][4]. - The Jingzhou base is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of 1 million tons of urea, 1 million tons of acetic acid, and 150,000 tons of dimethylformamide (DMF) upon reaching full capacity [1][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a decrease of 9.9% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 3.70 billion yuan, a decline of 42.3% year-on-year. In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 7.91 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4% year-on-year and 13.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, down 14.1% year-on-year and 46.7% quarter-on-quarter [5][6]. - The company is optimistic about its long-term growth prospects due to the continuous rollout of new projects, including the development of high-end new materials and the establishment of a second base in Jingzhou, which is expected to support long-term growth [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.60 yuan per share (before tax) for the year 2023 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, with a gross profit of 5.68 billion yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 21% [10]. - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.87 billion yuan, 5.62 billion yuan, and 6.20 billion yuan, respectively [6][10]. Market Dynamics - The company faces challenges with downstream demand recovery not meeting expectations and new project progress being slower than anticipated [5][6]. - The prices of key products such as urea, DMF, and others have shown fluctuations, with Q4 2023 market prices for major products experiencing a range of changes [6][10]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned at the bottom of the cycle, with expectations for improvement in operating conditions as terminal demand continues to recover and cost pressures ease [6][10]. - The company’s diversified product portfolio and leading production capabilities are expected to mitigate operational volatility and support future growth [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion RMB, also down by 35.76% [1]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.914 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.36%, while the net profit for the same period was 649 million RMB, down 14.09% [1]. - The new production base in Jingzhou is expected to contribute positively to future performance, with stable operations and potential for profit improvement as industry capacity balances out [1][4]. - The company is facing pricing pressure in acetic acid and organic amines due to concentrated new capacity coming online, leading to a decline in average prices by approximately 9% and 1% respectively [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 27.26 billion RMB, down from 30.25 billion RMB in 2022, with a revenue growth rate of -9.87% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased to 3.576 billion RMB from 6.289 billion RMB in 2022, marking a decline of 43.14% [4]. Operational Analysis - The Jingzhou base has started contributing significantly to production, with output increases in fertilizers, acetic acid, and organic amines by 26%, 97%, and 27% respectively [1]. - The overall gross margin for Q4 2023 was 17.77%, down from 24.33% in Q3 2023, indicating a decline in product profitability [1]. Future Outlook - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 32.56 billion RMB, 37.87 billion RMB, and 41.99 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be 4.56 billion RMB, 5.83 billion RMB, and 6.83 billion RMB [1][4]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability as industry capacity begins to stabilize, with the Jingzhou base expected to enhance operational efficiency and cost management [1][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's performance has been pressured by a downturn in the chemical industry, leading to a decline in revenue and profit [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company is advancing its dual-base project development, which is expected to support long-term growth [2]. - The company has reported a total revenue of 27.26 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 9.87%, and a net profit of 3.58 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company's main product prices have declined, resulting in a drop in overall performance. Although sales volumes for key segments such as new energy materials and organic amines increased by 20.2% and 8.8% respectively, revenue growth was hindered by price declines [2]. - The revenue growth rates for segments like new energy materials, organic amines, fertilizers, and acetic acid were 5.61%, -55.38%, 2.86%, and -2.59% respectively [2]. - The overall gross margin decreased by 8 percentage points to 20.85% [2]. Project Development and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging clean coal gasification technology and a flexible multi-product production model to enhance resource utilization and expand its product chain [2]. - The company is implementing new projects and upgrading existing ones at its Dezhou base while simultaneously developing a second base in Jingzhou, which is expected to open new growth avenues [2]. - The first phase of the Jingzhou base project has been completed and is operational, while new projects in Dezhou are also progressing well [2]. Financial Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 4.68 billion yuan, 5.66 billion yuan, and 6.74 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.20 yuan, 2.66 yuan, and 3.17 yuan [3][9]. - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 12, 10, and 8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 27.26 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decline of 9.87%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14% year-on-year [7][8]. - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 7.914 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.36% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.26% [7][8]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its market competitiveness [11][12]. Financial Summary - **Revenue**: - 2023: 27,260 million yuan - 2024E: 34,541 million yuan (26.7% YoY growth) - 2025E: 39,131 million yuan (13.3% YoY growth) - 2026E: 43,715 million yuan (11.7% YoY growth) [3] - **Net Profit**: - 2023: 3,576 million yuan - 2024E: 4,545 million yuan (27.1% YoY growth) - 2025E: 5,714 million yuan (25.7% YoY growth) - 2026E: 6,258 million yuan (9.5% YoY growth) [3] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 20.9% - 2024E: 21.2% - 2025E: 22.6% - 2026E: 22.0% [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 1.68 yuan - 2024E: 2.14 yuan - 2025E: 2.69 yuan - 2026E: 2.95 yuan [3][12] Company Developments - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 6.00 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [4]. - The first phase of the Jingzhou base has been put into operation, contributing to revenue growth in Q4 2023, despite overall weak product demand [8][11]. - Ongoing projects at the Jingzhou and Dezhou bases are expected to support future growth, with significant investments planned for new materials and high-end products [11][12].

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2024 年03月 31 日 华鲁恒升 (600426) 公 司 研 究 ——业绩基本符合预期，荆州项目增量明显，低成本核心 公 司 优势稳固 点 评 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入 投资要点： （维持）  公司公告：公司2023年实现营业收入272.6亿元（YoY -9.87%），归母净利润35.76亿元（YoY 证 -43.14%），扣非归母净利润37.03亿元（YoY -42.28%），业绩基本符合预期。其中，Q4实现营 券 业收入79.14亿元（YoY +9.36%，QoQ +13.27%），归母净利润6.49亿元（YoY -14.09%，QoQ 研 市场数据： 2024年03月29日 -46.72%），扣非归母净利润8亿元（YoY -14.52%，QoQ -33.94%）。公司拟向全体股东每10股 究 收盘价（元） 26.16 派发现金红利6.00元（含税），现金分红总额约占公司2023年归母净利润的35.63%。 报 一年内最高/最低（元） 35.27/23.32  2023 年全年景气底部震荡，诉讼费用完成计提，后续有望轻装上阵。受下游需求疲软影响，2023 告 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2023, with revenue dropping by 9.87% year-on-year to 27.26 billion yuan and net profit decreasing by 43.14% to 3.576 billion yuan. However, the production commencement of the Jingzhou Phase I project is expected to enhance growth potential [3][4][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 27.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.87% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.576 billion yuan, down 43.14%. The weighted average return on equity (ROE) was 12.81%, a decline of 12.77 percentage points [3][4] - For Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.914 billion yuan, an increase of 9.36% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 14.09% year-on-year to 649 million yuan [3][7] Market Conditions - The chemical industry faced challenges in 2023 due to demand contraction, supply shocks, and weakened expectations, leading to increased competition and lower product prices. The average price of urea was 2,495 yuan/ton, down 8.63% year-on-year, while DMF prices dropped by 53.21% to 5,645 yuan/ton [4][3] Growth Drivers - The Jingzhou base's Phase I project was completed and began operations, achieving rapid profitability. The company also successfully launched high-end solvent projects and is advancing its nylon 66 high-end new materials project [4][8] - The company’s new energy materials products saw a sales volume increase of 20.20% year-on-year, generating revenue of 15.476 billion yuan, up 5.61% year-on-year [4] Profitability Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts, estimating net profits of 5.205 billion yuan, 6.025 billion yuan, and 6.803 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 11, 9, and 8 times [9]