Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Group 1: Company Performance - Yili Group reported a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan and a net profit of 8.464 billion yuan for 2024, with a first-quarter revenue of 33.018 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.35% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, reached 4.629 billion yuan in Q1 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 24.19% [1] - Yili Group aims to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan and a total profit of 12.6 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and 24.4% respectively, focusing on functional nutrition and deep processing of dairy products [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The tourism market is evolving, with an increasing number of tourists opting for less popular destinations, leading to a rise in demand for unique cultural experiences during the May Day holiday [3] - The hotel occupancy rate for Wanda Hotels and Resorts in lesser-known destinations reached over 90%, showing a year-on-year increase of more than 15 percentage points [3] - The film industry experienced a total box office of 738 million yuan during the May Day holiday period, despite a year-on-year decline compared to 2024, indicating a recovery in social activities such as family outings and couple dates [4]

Core Viewpoint - The first insurance-backed private equity fund in China, Honghu Zhiyuan, has disclosed its A-share holdings, indicating a significant entry of long-term capital into the market with an expected total of approximately 112 billion yuan from the second batch of insurance-backed private equity funds [1][5]. Group 1: Fund Performance and Holdings - As of the end of Q1 2025, Honghu Zhiyuan has heavily invested in three A-share stocks: Yili Group, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and China Telecom, with notable increases in holdings for Yili and Shaanxi Coal compared to the end of the previous year [3][4]. - The fund has achieved performance metrics that are lower in risk and higher in returns than benchmarks, with the first phase of 50 billion yuan fully invested by early March 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Characteristics - The selected stocks are characterized by high dividend yields and strong industry leadership, aligning with the insurance capital's need for stable returns and risk diversification [4][6]. - Shaanxi Coal has a dividend yield exceeding 7%, Yili Group over 4%, and China Telecom plans to increase cash distributions to 75% of its profits over the next three years, providing stable cash flow [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Prospects - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved a second batch of long-term stock investment trials, allowing eight insurance companies to access a total of 112 billion yuan for long-term stock investments [5][6]. - New private equity funds are being established, such as the proposed Honghu Zhiyuan Phase II, which aims to invest in large A+H shares that meet specific governance and operational criteria [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 36.33 CNY based on a reasonable valuation level of 21 times the earnings for 2025 [4][9]. Core Insights - The company faced profit pressure in 2024 due to goodwill impairment, with a reported revenue of 115.39 billion CNY, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion CNY, down 18.9% year-on-year. However, the performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 32.94 billion CNY, up 1.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 4.87 billion CNY, down 17.7% year-on-year, but showing a 31% increase when excluding prior year investment gains [2][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate revenues of 121.41 billion CNY in 2025, 128.33 billion CNY in 2026, and 137.19 billion CNY in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2%, 5.7%, and 6.9% respectively [3]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover to 11.02 billion CNY in 2025, with a growth of 30.3%, followed by 12.52 billion CNY in 2026 and 13.83 billion CNY in 2027 [3]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is forecasted to be 1.73 CNY in 2025, 1.97 CNY in 2026, and 2.17 CNY in 2027 [2][9]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to improve to 34.3% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to be 9.1% [3][8]. Market Performance - The company's stock price as of April 30, 2025, was 29.76 CNY, with a 52-week high of 31.96 CNY and a low of 21.13 CNY. The current dividend yield stands at 4.2% based on a proposed cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share [4][8].

公司点评 | 盈利弹性超预期 | | --- | ——伊利股份 24 年报及 25Q1 点评 伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：液奶降幅收窄明显 ⚫ 盈利：成本红利+产品结构优化 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 经过 24 年渠道库存去化，公司今年经营基础更加稳健，Q1 报表已 有较好反馈，随着 Q2 低基数来临，公司业绩有望逐季修复，全年 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -33% -18% -4% 11% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 伊利股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.伊利股份 24Q3：渠道调整初见成 效 2024-10-31 2.聚焦长期，H2 有望环比改善 2024- 09-01 敬请参阅末页重要 ...

伊利股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600887） 公司点评 | 盈利弹性超预期 | | --- | ——伊利股份 24 年报及 25Q1 点评 主要观点： ⚫ 收入：液奶降幅收窄明显 ⚫ 盈利：成本红利+产品结构优化 ⚫ 投资建议：维持"买入" ➢ 我们的观点： 经过 24 年渠道库存去化，公司今年经营基础更加稳健，Q1 报表已 有较好反馈，随着 Q2 低基数来临，公司业绩有望逐季修复，全年 [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -33% -18% -4% 11% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 伊利股份 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 邮箱：zhengshaoxuan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyReport] 相关报告 1.伊利股份 24Q3：渠道调整初见成 效 2024-10-31 2.聚焦长期，H2 有望环比改善 2024- 09-01 敬请参阅末页重要 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see steady improvement in profitability, supported by a diversified product portfolio and optimized channel matrix [4][7] - The company aims for revenue and profit targets of 1190 billion and 126 billion respectively for 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 2.8% and 24.4% [7] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1157.8 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 84.53 billion, down 18.9% year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 330.2 billion, up 1.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 48.74 billion, down 17.7% year-on-year [4] - The company plans a dividend of 1.22 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 92%, alongside a share buyback that accounts for 100.4% of net profit [4] Business Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.1%, while milk powder and cold drinks grew by 8.7% and 23.7% respectively [5] - For Q1 2025, liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.1%, milk powder increased by 18.6%, and cold drinks fell by 5.3% [5] - The company maintained its leading market share in liquid milk and saw growth in low-temperature milk [5] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 30.8%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -9.1% due to significant asset impairment losses [6] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin improved to 37.7%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, driven by business structure optimization [6] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for steady growth in 2025, with expectations of improved supply and demand dynamics due to consumption promotion policies [7] - The reduction of impairment losses related to the acquisition of Aoyou is expected to enhance profitability significantly [7] Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.70 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.5, 16.3, and 15.3 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][8]

商誉减值致 24 年利润承压，25Q1 表现超 预期 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 根据 24 年年报、25 年一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、上调毛利率。我们预测公司 25-27年每股收益分别为 1.73、1.97、2.17元（原预测 25-26年为 1.79、1.88元）。 结合可比公司，我们认为目前公司的合理估值水平为 2025 年的 21 倍市盈率，对应 目标价为 36.33 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：经济恢复不及预期、原奶价格持续回落导致竞争加剧、减值损失缩窄幅度不 及预期、食品安全事件风险。 （此处简单列示风险，正文需单独对风险提示详细展开描述） 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 125,758 | 115,393 | 121,413 | 128,328 | 137,195 | | 同比增长 (%) | 2.5% | -8.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 11,873 | 1 ...

伊利股份（600887.SH） 减值落地轻装上阵，盈利能力稳步提升 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 食品饮料/饮料乳品 | 日期 | 2025/4/30 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 29.76 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 31.96/21.13 | | 总市值(亿元) | 1,894.49 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 1,885.14 | | 总股本(亿股) | 63.66 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 63.34 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 48.02 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 伊利股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024Q3 利润超预期，盈利能力有望 稳 步 提 升 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.11.3 《短期调整下业绩承压，期待下半年 环 比 改 善 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2024.8.31 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has shown a significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit by 17.71% [2][5] - The company is expected to continue its recovery trajectory, driven by a rebound in demand for dairy products and effective cost management strategies [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase in revenue and a decrease in net profit [2][4] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 37.82%, up 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products [4][5] Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.08%, while the milk powder segment experienced an increase of 8.72% [4] - For Q1 2025, the liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.06%, while the milk powder segment grew by 18.65% [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a profit target of 12.6 billion yuan [4][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.67 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.99 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [5][6]