中国移动（0941） 更新报告 公司经营业绩稳中有进，派息率再创新高 | | | 罗凡环 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 行业 电讯服务 股价 79 港元 目标价 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代码 941.HK 已发行 H 股本 216.54 亿股 H 股总市值 16500 亿港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股净现值 73 港元 主要股东 中国移动香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公众股东 30.4% | | | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1,050,187 | 1,041,677 | 1,045,445 | 1,054,129 | 90 ...

中國移動（0941） 更新報告 公司經營業績穩中有進，派息率再創新高 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 羅凡環 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 行業 電訊服務 股價 79 港元 目標價 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代碼 941.HK 已發行 H 股本 216.54 億股 H 股總市值 16500 億港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股淨現值 73 港元 主要股東 中國移動香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公眾股東 30.4% ➢ 風險提示：公司分紅派息、ARPU 提升不及預期、行業政策影響、行業競爭加劇等。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.1 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% primarily due to a one-time tax impact from the separation of package revenue [4][10]. - The company has adjusted its business scope to focus on three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services, with rapid development in AI-related businesses and a continuous strengthening of token operations [10]. - Capital expenditures have continued to decline, with a structural shift towards computing power networks; cash flow has been affected by accelerated outflows, but the dividend payout has already met the three-year guidance ahead of schedule [10][4]. - For 2026, despite the impact of VAT adjustments, the company aims for steady revenue growth and profit growth on a comparable basis, with guidance indicating rapid growth in free cash flow and a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio [10][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, with a 0.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 137.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% decline. Excluding the one-time tax impact, the comparable net profit growth was 2.0% [4][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 255.5 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase, while the net profit for the quarter was 21.7 billion yuan, down 20.9% [10]. Business Strategy - The company has redefined its business focus into three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services. The revenue from communication services was 714.9 billion yuan, down 1.0%, while computing power services grew by 11.1% to 89.8 billion yuan [10][4]. - The company aims to become a world-class technology service enterprise by 2030, with specific targets for revenue growth in communication and computing power services during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2025 were 150.9 billion yuan, an 8.0% decrease, with a forecast of 136.6 billion yuan for 2026, a 9.5% decline [10][4]. - Operating cash flow for 2025 was 232.9 billion yuan, down 26%, while free cash flow decreased by 46% to 82.0 billion yuan. The company expects free cash flow to grow rapidly in 2026 [10][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and commercial aerospace sectors, including China Telecom, Arista Networks, and others [8][36]. Core Insights - SpaceX plans to submit an IPO application soon, targeting a June 2026 listing with a fundraising goal exceeding $75 billion, which could become the largest IPO in history [2][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience significant catalytic events in 2026, with a focus on SpaceX's IPO process, domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace accelerating their IPOs, and the first flights of reusable rockets [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming SpaceX IPO as a potential revaluation catalyst for the commercial aerospace sector, suggesting that the sector's investment value is becoming increasingly apparent [15]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 1.42% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.09% and 0.76%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Developments - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the telecommunications industry, particularly focusing on AI computing chains and commercial aerospace [3]. - Key recommended stocks include: - Walden Materials (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 - China Telecom (601728 CH) with a target price of 8.16 - Arista Networks (ANET US) with a target price of 166.30 - StarNet Ruijie (002396 CH) with a target price of 36.33 - Ruijie Networks (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.99 - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 114.30 - New Yisheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 626.68 - Guanghuan New Network (300383 CH) with a target price of 18.87 [36]. SpaceX and Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's valuation is reported at $1.75 trillion, with a projected 2025 revenue of $15-16 billion, primarily driven by its Starlink business [2][13]. - The report notes that SpaceX's IPO will reshape the global commercial aerospace valuation landscape, with domestic companies also accelerating their development [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should take advantage of the current valuation range and focus on core suppliers in satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite operations as the commercial aerospace sector experiences significant growth and event-driven opportunities in 2026 [15].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The traditional business of operators continues to face pressure, with profitability shrinking due to the macroeconomic environment and high penetration of 5G. However, the digital transformation and intelligence initiatives are showing initial results, leading to a steady increase in revenue and stable profit growth due to cost reduction and decreased depreciation [1][18]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2025, the revenue of major operators remained stable: China Mobile achieved revenue of 1,050.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; China Telecom's operating revenue was 529.6 billion, showing a slight increase; China Unicom's revenue reached 392.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7% [6]. - Profit growth slightly declined: In 2025, China Unicom's net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.13 billion, up 1.1% year-on-year; China Telecom's net profit was 33.2 billion, up 0.5%; China Mobile's net profit was 137.1 billion, a slight decrease of 0.9% [6]. Traditional Business Performance - Mobile communication service revenue for China Mobile decreased by 1.0% to 714.9 billion, with mobile ARPU slightly declining to 46.8 yuan/month/household. However, family broadband revenue grew by 8.0%, and enterprise broadband revenue increased by 6.7% [7]. - China Telecom's mobile communication service revenue increased by 1.0% to 204.5 billion, maintaining stable ARPU at 45.1 yuan/month/household [7]. Growth in Intelligent Services - Revenue from computing services and intelligent services is continuously increasing. China Mobile's computing service revenue grew by 11.1% to 89.8 billion, accounting for 10.0% of total revenue, while intelligent service revenue increased by 5.3% to 90.8 billion [9]. - China Telecom's intelligent revenue reached 12.3 billion, growing by 38.2%, indicating a shift towards token-based operations [9]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditures are expected to continue decreasing, with the share of intelligent computing networks exceeding 35% [10][12]. - In 2025, China Mobile's capital expenditure was 150.9 billion, a decrease of 8.0%, while China Telecom's was 80.4 billion, with a projected decrease of 9.2% in 2026 [12][14]. Dividend Policy - The three major operators emphasize shareholder returns, with increasing dividend payout ratios: China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom's interim dividends were 0.272, 5.27 (HKD), and 0.417 yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 3.5%, and 3.1% [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Mobile (600941.SH) with a current price of 93.42 CNY [2] Core Insights - China Mobile achieved a revenue of 1,050.187 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.095 billion CNY, down 0.9% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its differentiated competitive advantage through increased investment in intelligent computing and network services, with significant growth in its cloud services and data center revenues [8] - The mobile customer base reached 1.01 billion, with 5G network users at 642 million, marking a penetration rate of 63.9% [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 136.3 billion CNY, 144.6 billion CNY, and 147.3 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 14 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated at 1,063.939 billion CNY, 1,084.505 billion CNY, and 1,106.718 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 1.3%, 1.9%, and 2.0% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show slight declines in 2026 and 2027, followed by a modest increase in 2028 [9] - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately 1,509 billion CNY in 2025 and 1,366 billion CNY in 2026, primarily to enhance communication networks and accelerate intelligent computing capabilities [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. military presence and actions in Iran, with President Trump claiming control over the Strait of Hormuz and indicating that Iran is eager for a deal [2][4] - The U.S. military is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, with over 50,000 troops deployed, aiming for a quick resolution without occupying territory, reminiscent of the Gulf War strategy [3] - Protests against the Trump administration are expected to be among the largest in U.S. history, with over 9 million participants planned across 50 states [4] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of the ongoing conflict on global markets, including a focus on oil prices and potential supply chain disruptions, particularly in the aluminum sector due to attacks on major aluminum plants in the Middle East [5][21] - The article notes that the conflict has led to significant increases in oil prices, with Vietnam experiencing a doubling of diesel prices since the onset of hostilities [18] - The article mentions the upcoming release of key economic indicators, including the U.S. non-farm payroll report and China's PMI data, which will be closely watched in the context of the Middle East situation [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for China Mobile [2][6]. Core Insights - China Mobile reported a revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.91%, while total profit decreased by 1.56% to 175.6 billion yuan [1][6]. - The company achieved a 75% dividend payout ratio ahead of schedule, supported by robust cash flow and shareholder return capabilities [1][6]. - The business structure is shifting, with revenue from computing and intelligent services increasing to 20.2% of main business revenue, marking a 1.4 percentage point rise [1][6]. Financial Performance - In 2025, China Mobile's total revenue was 1,050.2 billion yuan, with service revenue from telecommunications at 714.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.03% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company’s EBITDA for Q4 2025 was 338.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year increase [6]. - The net profit for 2025 was 137.1 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.92% year-on-year, but a 2% increase when excluding tax impacts from package income [6][7]. Business Segments - The computing services segment generated revenue of 89.8 billion yuan in 2025, growing by 11.1% year-on-year, while intelligent services revenue reached 90.8 billion yuan, up by 5.3% [6]. - The penetration rate of 5G users increased by 8.9 percentage points to 63.9%, and broadband revenue grew by 8% with a net addition of 9.99 million broadband customers [6]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company reported a free cash flow of 82.04 billion yuan in 2025, with significant improvement in cash collection in the second half of the year [6]. - Capital expenditure for 2025 was 150.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, with a focus on computing infrastructure [6]. Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 131.7 billion yuan, 136.0 billion yuan, and 143.1 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.4, 14.9, and 14.1 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][43]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the construction of 500,000 5G-A base stations and the deployment of 10G optical networks, establishing a growth foundation for the industry over the next three years [3][15]. - The communication industry is currently experiencing a period of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors [3][38]. - The penetration rate of 5G users has reached 67.6%, providing a solid user base for technological upgrades [3][38]. - The report highlights the recent surge in optical fiber procurement prices, indicating a recovery in upstream market conditions [3][38]. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector index increased by 0.39% over the two weeks from March 13 to March 26, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.87 percentage points, ranking second among 31 primary industries [10][11]. - For March, the communication sector index rose by 0.46%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.41 percentage points [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.55%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.84 percentage points [10][11]. Subsector Performance - Among the six subsectors of the communication industry, the highest increase was seen in the SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices, which rose by 6.12% [3][16]. - The other subsectors experienced varying declines, with the SW Other Communication Equipment falling by 12.26% [3][16]. Industry Data Updates - As of February 2026, the number of mobile phone users reached approximately 1.826 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03% [25][19]. - The total number of fixed internet broadband access users reached 694 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.61% [27][19]. - The number of 5G base stations reached 4.909 million, accounting for 38% of the total mobile base stations, with a net increase of 70,000 from the end of the previous year [35][19]. Company Announcements - China Mobile reported a projected net profit of 137.1 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [21][19]. - China Unicom expects a net profit growth of 1.1% for 2025, with total revenue projected at 392.223 billion yuan [22][19]. - Lightwave Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 163.76% for 2025, with revenue growth of 47.56% [23][19]. - GuoDun Quantum announced a turnaround to profitability in 2025, with a net profit of 5.3919 million yuan [24][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.9% year-on-year to RMB 1,050.2 billion for 2025, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.9% to RMB 137.1 billion, which was below previous forecasts [1][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from opportunities in the "AI+" sector, with a focus on enhancing its capabilities in network, cloud, and edge computing [1][4]. - The report anticipates a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio, projecting a dividend of HKD 5.27 for the fiscal year 2025, with expectations for further increases in 2026 [1][5]. Revenue and Profitability - Traditional communication service revenue declined by 1% to RMB 7,148.6 billion, with mobile ARPU slightly decreasing to RMB 46.8 [2][3]. - The company has over 1 billion mobile users and achieved 1.48 billion IoT card connections by the end of 2025, indicating a solid user base [2][3]. - Digital business segments, particularly AI and intelligent services, are projected to grow rapidly, with computing service revenue expected to increase by 11% to RMB 898 billion in 2025 [3][4]. Cost Management and Financial Outlook - The report suggests that the company will optimize its revenue structure and improve cost efficiency to mitigate the impact of VAT policy changes [4][5]. - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease by 9.5% to RMB 136.6 billion in 2026, which will help reduce depreciation and amortization pressures [4][5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2026-2028 is adjusted to RMB 130.2 billion, RMB 134.2 billion, and RMB 138.4 billion, respectively [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a target price of RMB 114.3 for A-shares and HKD 94.4 for H-shares, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.7 times for 2026 [5][10]. - The company is expected to maintain a high level of profitability and long-term growth potential in the digital era, despite the impact of VAT adjustments [5][10].