中国移动（0941） 更新报告 公司经营业绩稳中有进，派息率再创新高 | | | 罗凡环 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要数据 行业 电讯服务 股价 79 港元 目标价 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代码 941.HK 已发行 H 股本 216.54 亿股 H 股总市值 16500 亿港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股净现值 73 港元 主要股东 中国移动香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公众股东 30.4% | | | | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股价表现 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1,050,187 | 1,041,677 | 1,045,445 | 1,054,129 | 90 ...

中國移動（0941） 更新報告 公司經營業績穩中有進，派息率再創新高 買入 2026 年 4 月 1 日 羅凡環 852-25321539 Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk 李京霖 852-25321957 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 主要資料 行業 電訊服務 股價 79 港元 目標價 108 港元 （+35%） 股票代碼 941.HK 已發行 H 股本 216.54 億股 H 股總市值 16500 億港元 52 周高/低 89/71 港元 每股淨現值 73 港元 主要股東 中國移動香港(BVI)有限 公司 69.6% 公眾股東 30.4% ➢ 風險提示：公司分紅派息、ARPU 提升不及預期、行業政策影響、行業競爭加劇等。 | 盈利摘要 | | | | | | 股價表現 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 截止12月31日财报（中国移动） | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 95.0 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,040,759 | 1, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Insights - In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.1 billion yuan, a decline of 0.9% primarily due to a one-time tax impact from the separation of package revenue [4][10]. - The company has adjusted its business scope to focus on three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services, with rapid development in AI-related businesses and a continuous strengthening of token operations [10]. - Capital expenditures have continued to decline, with a structural shift towards computing power networks; cash flow has been affected by accelerated outflows, but the dividend payout has already met the three-year guidance ahead of schedule [10][4]. - For 2026, despite the impact of VAT adjustments, the company aims for steady revenue growth and profit growth on a comparable basis, with guidance indicating rapid growth in free cash flow and a stable increase in the dividend payout ratio [10][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of 1,050.2 billion yuan, with a 0.9% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 137.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% decline. Excluding the one-time tax impact, the comparable net profit growth was 2.0% [4][10]. - The fourth quarter of 2025 saw operating revenue of 255.5 billion yuan, a 2.5% increase, while the net profit for the quarter was 21.7 billion yuan, down 20.9% [10]. Business Strategy - The company has redefined its business focus into three main areas: communication services, computing power services, and intelligent services. The revenue from communication services was 714.9 billion yuan, down 1.0%, while computing power services grew by 11.1% to 89.8 billion yuan [10][4]. - The company aims to become a world-class technology service enterprise by 2030, with specific targets for revenue growth in communication and computing power services during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures for 2025 were 150.9 billion yuan, an 8.0% decrease, with a forecast of 136.6 billion yuan for 2026, a 9.5% decline [10][4]. - Operating cash flow for 2025 was 232.9 billion yuan, down 26%, while free cash flow decreased by 46% to 82.0 billion yuan. The company expects free cash flow to grow rapidly in 2026 [10][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the telecommunications and commercial aerospace sectors, including China Telecom, Arista Networks, and others [8][36]. Core Insights - SpaceX plans to submit an IPO application soon, targeting a June 2026 listing with a fundraising goal exceeding $75 billion, which could become the largest IPO in history [2][12]. - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to experience significant catalytic events in 2026, with a focus on SpaceX's IPO process, domestic companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace accelerating their IPOs, and the first flights of reusable rockets [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming SpaceX IPO as a potential revaluation catalyst for the commercial aerospace sector, suggesting that the sector's investment value is becoming increasingly apparent [15]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The telecommunications index fell by 1.42% last week, while the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.09% and 0.76%, respectively [1][11]. Key Companies and Developments - The report highlights a favorable outlook for the telecommunications industry, particularly focusing on AI computing chains and commercial aerospace [3]. - Key recommended stocks include: - Walden Materials (002130 CH) with a target price of 43.21 - China Telecom (601728 CH) with a target price of 8.16 - Arista Networks (ANET US) with a target price of 166.30 - StarNet Ruijie (002396 CH) with a target price of 36.33 - Ruijie Networks (301165 CH) with a target price of 102.99 - China Mobile (600941 CH) with a target price of 114.30 - New Yisheng (300502 CH) with a target price of 476.71 - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 CH) with a target price of 626.68 - Guanghuan New Network (300383 CH) with a target price of 18.87 [36]. SpaceX and Commercial Aerospace - SpaceX's valuation is reported at $1.75 trillion, with a projected 2025 revenue of $15-16 billion, primarily driven by its Starlink business [2][13]. - The report notes that SpaceX's IPO will reshape the global commercial aerospace valuation landscape, with domestic companies also accelerating their development [14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that investors should take advantage of the current valuation range and focus on core suppliers in satellite manufacturing, rocket launches, and satellite operations as the commercial aerospace sector experiences significant growth and event-driven opportunities in 2026 [15].

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 运营商 25 年总结：稳健增长，强化 AI [Table_Title2] 通信行业 [Table_Summary] 1、运营商专题 当前时点，运营商传统业务持续承压，在宏观经济环境以及 5G 高渗透率节点，相关业务盈利能力持续缩减。运营商行业智能 化、数字化转型已初见成效，相关业务占收比持续提升，推动 整体收入稳健；利润端受益于降本增效和折旧摊销减少，增速 维持稳定。 我们认为： 1）算力网络方面将是长线投资热点和方向，运营商持续智能与 算力网络建设，是算力基础底座的生态核心，在算力持续增长 过程中，运营商 IDC、服务器、光模块、光纤光缆产业链有望 持续受益。 2）伴随新一代通信业务拓展，我们预计包括 AI 物联网（车联 网、AIOT）、卫星通信以及低空经济等有望推动行业新需求衍 生，是未来提升估值的潜在动力。 2、风险提示 移动业务收入稳定不及预期；2B2G 业务应收账款规模扩大；云 业务竞争加大导致毛利率下降；宏观经济影响。 评级及分析师信息 [Table_IndustryRank] 行业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Mobile (600941.SH) with a current price of 93.42 CNY [2] Core Insights - China Mobile achieved a revenue of 1,050.187 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 137.095 billion CNY, down 0.9% year-on-year [8] - The company is focusing on enhancing its differentiated competitive advantage through increased investment in intelligent computing and network services, with significant growth in its cloud services and data center revenues [8] - The mobile customer base reached 1.01 billion, with 5G network users at 642 million, marking a penetration rate of 63.9% [8] - The report forecasts net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to be 136.3 billion CNY, 144.6 billion CNY, and 147.3 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15, 14, and 14 [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are estimated at 1,063.939 billion CNY, 1,084.505 billion CNY, and 1,106.718 billion CNY respectively, with growth rates of 1.3%, 1.9%, and 2.0% [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to show slight declines in 2026 and 2027, followed by a modest increase in 2028 [9] - The company plans capital expenditures of approximately 1,509 billion CNY in 2025 and 1,366 billion CNY in 2026, primarily to enhance communication networks and accelerate intelligent computing capabilities [8]

1、 美国总统特朗普声称， 美国已在掌控霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗"极其"渴望达成协议。美国副总统万斯表示， 美 国无意滞留在伊朗，等处理完眼前事务后，很快会撤离。 万斯称，完全有理由认为美国已经完成所有军事目 标。目前还未结束军事行动，是因为特朗普总统想确保伊朗彻底丧失威胁美国的能力。对于当前美国国内油价 上涨，万斯表示，这是对美以伊冲突极其短暂的市场反应，美国撤离伊朗后油价会回落。 2、 美以伊战事继续呈现激烈和胶着状态，伊朗加大对美以打击力度，德黑兰遭空袭程度和次数明显增加。 伊 朗发布卫星对比图，显示对沙特苏丹王子空军基地的美军相关设施打击情况，一架加油机和E-3预警机以及部分 建筑物被击毁。 伊朗武装部队哈塔姆·安比亚中央司令部发言人表示，伊朗方面将对美国和以色列相关军事指挥 人员及政治人员住所实施打击， 此举是对相关方袭击伊朗多地居民区采取的报复性措施。 3、 美军地面战"数周速决"方案曝光。 消息称，美国国防部正为在伊朗展开为期数周的地面行动做准备。增兵 集结完毕后，美国在中东地区驻军人数超过5万人。 不同于2003年伊拉克战争的全面入侵，五角大楼这次祭 出"尖刀斩首"战术——不占领土、不打持久战，直指 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2026 年 03 月 29 日 中国移动（600941.SH） 充裕现金流支撑红利价值，算力服务驱动增长新动能 TMT 及中小盘/通信 2026 年 3 月 26 日，中国移动发布 2025 年年度业绩，营业收入 10502 亿元， 当前股价：93.42 元 同比增长 0.91%；利润总额 1756 亿元，同比下降 1.56%；归母净利润 1371 亿 元，同比下降 0.92%。2025 年下半年，公司现金回笼加速，自由现金流健康充 沛，股东回报能力突出，提前实现 75%的派息率目标。同时，公司业务结构转 型加速，算力服务和智能服务收入占主业比重提升 1.4 个百分点至 20.2%，新 兴业务成为公司核心增长引擎。 强烈推荐（维持） 目标估值：NA 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 21654 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 903 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2022.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 84.3 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 64.3 | | ROE（TTM） | 9.8 | | 资产负债率 | 33.2% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [2][43]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the construction of 500,000 5G-A base stations and the deployment of 10G optical networks, establishing a growth foundation for the industry over the next three years [3][15]. - The communication industry is currently experiencing a period of technological iteration and policy benefits, with new growth drivers emerging from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy sectors [3][38]. - The penetration rate of 5G users has reached 67.6%, providing a solid user base for technological upgrades [3][38]. - The report highlights the recent surge in optical fiber procurement prices, indicating a recovery in upstream market conditions [3][38]. Industry Performance Review - The communication sector index increased by 0.39% over the two weeks from March 13 to March 26, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.87 percentage points, ranking second among 31 primary industries [10][11]. - For March, the communication sector index rose by 0.46%, again outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.41 percentage points [10][11]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has seen a cumulative increase of 7.55%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.84 percentage points [10][11]. Subsector Performance - Among the six subsectors of the communication industry, the highest increase was seen in the SW Communication Network Equipment and Devices, which rose by 6.12% [3][16]. - The other subsectors experienced varying declines, with the SW Other Communication Equipment falling by 12.26% [3][16]. Industry Data Updates - As of February 2026, the number of mobile phone users reached approximately 1.826 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 2.03% [25][19]. - The total number of fixed internet broadband access users reached 694 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.61% [27][19]. - The number of 5G base stations reached 4.909 million, accounting for 38% of the total mobile base stations, with a net increase of 70,000 from the end of the previous year [35][19]. Company Announcements - China Mobile reported a projected net profit of 137.1 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.9% [21][19]. - China Unicom expects a net profit growth of 1.1% for 2025, with total revenue projected at 392.223 billion yuan [22][19]. - Lightwave Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 163.76% for 2025, with revenue growth of 47.56% [23][19]. - GuoDun Quantum announced a turnaround to profitability in 2025, with a net profit of 5.3919 million yuan [24][19].

证券研究报告 中国移动 (600941 CH/941 HK) 港股通 通信+算力+智能三大赛道稳步前行 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 27 日│中国内地/中国香港 中国移动发布 2025 年度业绩：公司营业收入同比增长 0.9%至 10502 亿元；归 母净利润同比下降 0.9%至 1371 亿元，低于我们此前预测（1454 亿元），主要 系传统业务收入略有承压，可比口径（剔除套餐收入分拆纳税影响）归母净利润 同比增长 2%。公司拟派发 2025 年度全年股息 5.27 港元，派息率提升至 75%， 公司预计 2026 年派息率将稳中有升。数智化时代，公司在"AI+"赛道迎来了 更广阔的发展机遇，网、云、端各项业务均有望受益，长期而言，我们看好公司 作为全球电信运营商龙头的经营韧性与竞争力，维持"买入"评级。 传统业务收入及移动 ARPU 略有承压 传统业务方面，公司 2025 年通信服务收入同比下降 1%至 7148.6 亿元。细 分来看，无线上网业务收入同比下降 4%至 3691 亿元，移动业务 ARPU 小 幅下滑至 46.8 元（2024:48.5 元）；有线宽带业务收入同比增长 8.7% ...