Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on expected economic recovery and demand improvement [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 revenues projected to reach CNY 2,219.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, while net profit is expected to decline by 8.18% to CNY 108.87 billion [6][26]. - The oil and petrochemical sector is anticipated to maintain stable revenues and profits, with 2024 revenues estimated at CNY 7,941.40 billion, a decrease of 2.81%, and net profit expected to grow by 0.58% to CNY 372.14 billion [1][26]. - The report highlights that 23 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth in 2024, with significant increases in chlor-alkali and textile chemicals [6][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry is experiencing a decline in profitability, with gross and net profit margins at 16.27% and 5.13%, respectively, both down from 2023 [26]. - The report notes that the industry has been in a continuous decline in profitability from 2022 to 2024, but signs of stabilization are emerging [26]. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, chlor-alkali and textile chemicals showed the highest profit growth rates at 262.84% and 125.27%, respectively [15][26]. - Conversely, non-metallic materials and other plastic products faced significant profit declines of 79.24% and 67.49% [15][26]. Quarterly Analysis - For Q4 2024, the basic chemical industry reported revenues of CNY 565.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.90% [6][7]. - Net profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 14.16 billion, down 10.73% year-on-year and 51.03% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in new materials, energy security, and policy-driven demand recovery [1][26]. - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and various technology firms in the semiconductor and new energy materials sectors [1][26].

证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 4月油价回顾： 2025年4月布伦特原油期货均价为66.5美元/桶，环比下跌5.0美元/桶，月末收于63.1美元/ 桶；WTI原油期货均价62.9美元/桶，环比下跌5.0美元/桶，月末收于58.2美元/桶。4月上旬， 美国"对等关税"落地引发经济衰退及能源需求担忧，同时OPEC+宣布将从5月加速增产41.1 万桶/天，国际油价暴跌；4月中旬，美国暂缓"对等关税"政策90天实施，美国对伊朗出口实 施新制裁，OPEC+产油国提交补偿性减产计划，但三大机构下调全球需求增长，国际油价 震荡上行；4月下旬至5月初，EIA原油库存增加，OPEC+宣布将在6月再次加速增产41.1万 桶/天，国际油价再次下跌。 国信证券近日发布油气行业2025年4月月报：由于"对等关税"政策对需求影响，国际主 要能源机构下调2025年原油需求增长，预计增长73-130万桶/天。根据OPEC、IEA、EIA最新 4月月报显示，2024年原油需求分别为103.75、102.79、102.74万桶/天（上次为103.75、 102.79、102.86桶/天），分别较2023年增加151、83、89万桶/天（上次为1 ...

Core Insights - The Victory Oilfield's maintenance service department has successfully completed the installation of oil collection boxes at the Feiyan Beach area, marking a significant achievement in their collaboration to establish a "zero leakage" and "zero fire" demonstration zone [1] - The Feiyan Beach oil area is located in an ecologically sensitive coastal zone, making its safe and stable operation crucial for both ecological protection and energy supply [1] - A deepened cooperation agreement was signed in early March to enhance collaboration through party-building initiatives, focusing on the application of new technologies and materials [1] Group 1 - The service department prepared dozens of samples of carbon fiber and heavy anti-corrosion materials for on-site demonstrations, which facilitated the understanding and application of new technologies by the management area [1] - The introduction of pipeline detection technology has enabled the early identification of pipeline fault risks, providing strong support for preventive maintenance [1] - The service department has detected 20 kilometers of pipelines using this technology and has repaired 13 potential hazards, significantly improving the safety and reliability of the pipeline network [1] Group 2 - To ensure the smooth progress of the demonstration zone construction, the service department established a full lifecycle guarantee model consisting of "pre-protection, mid-term maintenance, and post-operation" [2] - A regional pipeline database covering nearly 60 kilometers has been created based on preliminary detection data, allowing for precise control of frequently occurring fault points and timely elimination of hazards [2] - Statistics show that the number of emergency repair incidents in the management area has decreased by one-third compared to the previous year, indicating significant effectiveness in the construction of the demonstration zone [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - In April, both A-share and Hong Kong stock markets experienced a decline, with the A-share market showing a cumulative drop of 0.6% for the Shanghai 50 index and a maximum drop of 7.4% for the ChiNext index as of April 25, 2025 [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market showed significant volatility in April, influenced by overseas risk events and domestic policy expectations, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 4.9% [1][10] Group 2: A-share Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a rebound due to continuous policy support and inflow of medium to long-term funds, with current valuations near the average since 2010 [2][13] - Three asset categories are recommended for investment: stable assets (high dividend stocks, gold), self-sufficient industrial chains, and domestic consumption [2][15][16] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Insights - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to continue its upward trend, supported by low valuations of the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Technology Index [3][17] - A "barbell" investment strategy is suggested, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks, particularly in sectors like telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][17] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - The A-share stock selection for May 2025 includes: Zhongzi Technology, Hengrui Medicine, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, China Petroleum, CNOOC Development, Zijin Mining, Muyuan Foods, Honglu Steel Structure, and Puyang Refractories [4][23] - The Hong Kong stock selection for May 2025 includes: Alibaba-W, Pop Mart, Tencent Holdings, Xindong Company, NetEase Cloud Music, and Horizon Robotics-W [4][26]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 594 million yuan, up 18.38% year-on-year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.42% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 46.53% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 594 million yuan, marking an 18.38% increase year-on-year and a 38.61% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The annualized ROE for Q1 2025 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, while the cost-to-profit ratio improved to 6.6%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Industry and Market Trends - The international oil price fluctuated at a high level, with the average Brent crude oil price in Q1 2025 at $74.98 per barrel, down 8.3% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The domestic oilfield service market continues to grow steadily, driven by high oil prices and national energy security strategies [2]. - The global oil service market is expected to maintain growth, with a projected market size of $326.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [5]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - The company has implemented cost control measures, resulting in a gross profit margin of 12.90%, an increase of 1.02 percentage points [4]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation, aiming to develop 10 digital products by 2024 and enhance operational efficiency through the application of artificial intelligence [4]. - The production capacity of the intelligent injection workshop is expected to increase from 300 sets per year to 2,000 sets per year, with a first-pass yield rate exceeding 99% [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing "increase reserves and production" initiatives led by its parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), with production growth targets of 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8% for 2025-2027 [5]. - The company is focused on providing comprehensive production and sales support in offshore oil production, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability [5]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 4.262 billion yuan, 4.698 billion yuan, and 5.215 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 46.53% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 594 million yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.38% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 38.61% [5] - The company is focused on enhancing operational efficiency and cost control, leading to a significant increase in net profit [6][8] - The three main business segments—energy technology services, low-carbon environmental protection and digitalization, and energy logistics services—are all showing steady growth [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit increase of 18% driven by high oil prices and domestic market growth [6] - The annualized ROE for Q1 2025 was 8.7%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 12.90%, up by 1.02 percentage points [8] Business Segments - The energy technology services segment has shown significant capability improvements, contributing major profit increases [7] - The low-carbon and digitalization segment has seen growth in new energy technology services and pipeline coating projects [7] - The energy logistics segment has benefited from increased service volume and sales, offsetting price fluctuations due to international oil price changes [7] Industry Outlook - The global oil service market is expected to continue its growth, with a projected market size of 326.5 billion USD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9] - The parent company, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), is actively pursuing a "seven-year action plan" for oil and gas production increase, which is expected to benefit the company in the long term [9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.262 billion yuan, 4.698 billion yuan, and 5.215 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The report maintains the profit forecast for 2025-2026 and introduces a new forecast for 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.42, 0.46, and 0.51 yuan per share [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 52.517 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.51%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.656 billion yuan, up 18.66% year-on-year [7] - The company focuses on core technologies in the oil and gas sector, with steady growth in performance [1][7] - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of approximately 37.53% [7] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 52.517 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.51% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 3.656 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.66% increase year-on-year [7] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.074 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.42%, and a net profit of 594 million yuan, up 18.48% year-on-year [7] Business Segments - Energy Technology Services: Revenue reached 21.733 billion yuan in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, with significant growth in various service areas [7] - Energy Logistics Services: Revenue was 23.210 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year, with enhanced operational support capabilities [7] - Low Carbon and Digitalization: Revenue was 10.060 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on green low-carbon and digital industries, achieving a 0.9% year-on-year growth [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 4.2 billion yuan and 4.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 5 billion yuan [7] - The corresponding P/E ratios based on the closing price on April 24, 2025, are projected to be 10, 9, and 8 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][11][12] Core Views - The company's three main businesses are steadily growing, with a 25.8% year-on-year increase in non-recurring net profit for the first quarter, reaching a historical high of 550 million yuan [1][6] - The company benefits from increased reserves and production in offshore oil fields, with the Bohai oil field's total oil and gas output exceeding 10 million tons for the first time in the first quarter [2][10] - The company is actively laying out strategic emerging industries such as green low-carbon, digitalization, and new materials, aiming to create new growth drivers [2][10] - The long-term development space for the company is promising, with domestic revenue expected to account for 98.8% in 2024, and a positive correlation between the company's service workload and China National Offshore Oil Corporation's (CNOOC) oil and gas production [3][11] Financial Performance Summary - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 10.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a total profit of 820 million yuan, up 16.7% [1][6] - The company's gross profit margin was 12.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6.1%, up 0.3 percentage points [1][6] - The forecast for the company's net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.21 billion, 4.98 billion, and 5.54 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding diluted EPS of 0.41, 0.49, and 0.54 yuan [3][11][12] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate operating revenue of 52.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight increase of 0.2% compared to 2024 [4][13] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 4.21 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.2% compared to 2024 [4][13] - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to decrease from 11.3 in 2024 to 9.8 in 2025, indicating an attractive valuation [4][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company focuses on core technologies in the oil and gas sector, achieving steady growth in performance [1] - In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 52.517 billion yuan (up 6.51% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.656 billion yuan (up 18.66% year-on-year) [7] - The first quarter of 2025 showed continued positive performance with total revenue of 10.074 billion yuan (up 9.42% year-on-year) and a net profit of 594 million yuan (up 18.48% year-on-year) [7] - The company has three main business segments: Energy Technology Services, Energy Logistics Services, and Low Carbon Environmental Protection & Digitalization, all showing steady progress [7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - Total revenue is projected to grow from 49.308 billion yuan in 2023 to 61.638 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.44% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 3.081 billion yuan in 2023 to 5.032 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 9.73% [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.30 yuan in 2023 to 0.50 yuan in 2027 [1] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 13.30 in 2023 to 8.14 in 2027, indicating improved valuation over time [1] Business Segment Performance - **Energy Technology Services**: - Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 21.733 billion yuan (up 15% year-on-year), driven by enhanced core capabilities and increased market demand [7] - **Energy Logistics Services**: - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 23.210 billion yuan (up 0.6% year-on-year), with improvements in operational support and efficiency [7] - **Low Carbon Environmental Protection & Digitalization**: - Revenue for 2024 is anticipated to be 10.060 billion yuan (up 0.9% year-on-year), focusing on strategic emerging industries [7] Shareholder Returns - The company has a high dividend policy, distributing approximately 1.372 billion yuan in cash dividends in 2024, with a payout ratio of about 37.53% [7]