Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that international oil prices are rising due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which outweighs the impact of a significant increase in US crude oil inventories [1] - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its forecast for global oil supply and demand for the next two years, with a notable decrease in OPEC+ daily production in January, down by 439,000 barrels to 42.448 million barrels, exceeding market expectations [1] - Current international oil prices are characterized by a tendency to rise rather than fall, with various bullish catalysts emerging, leading to a greater potential for price increases compared to declines [1] Group 2 - The Guozheng Oil and Gas Index (399439) has seen an increase of 0.94%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as CNOOC Engineering (up 9.97%) and Zhongman Petroleum (up 5.90%) [1] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index, which reflects the price changes of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Oil and Gas Index account for 66.76% of the index, including major companies like China National Petroleum, CNOOC, and Sinopec [2]

机构对海油发展给予综合目标价4.90元，较当前价上涨空间22.50%；预测2025年净利润同比增长 13.84%，营收微增1.31%。分析指出公司受益于能源安全战略和低碳转型，业务稳健，股息率超3%，但 需关注油价波动风险。 股票近期走势 2026年2月11日，受EIA上调原油价格预期影响，油气板块午后拉升，海油发展股价上涨3.76%，报收 4.42元，成交额4.44亿元，当日最高价达4.44元。近5日股价累计上涨4.99%，区间振幅7.60%，表现强于 大盘。2月10日主力资金净流出1010.22万元，但散户资金净流入1527.73万元。 机构观点 经济观察网 2026年1月15日，中国海油（600938）召开2026年工作会议，部署"十五五"规划，强调油气 主业稳增长和新能源融合发展。同日，海油发展（600968）公布惠州地区制冷站改造项目中标候选人， 显示业务活动持续。此外，中国海油加速海上风电布局，海油发展作为集团旗下公司，已参与风电运维 业务，新能源转型步伐加快。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - Zhongman Petroleum rose over 7% [1] - Continental Oil and Gas and CNOOC Engineering both increased by over 4% [1] - CNOOC Development, China National Petroleum Engineering, and China Oilfield Services also experienced gains [1]

2月10日消息，天眼查数据显示，中海油能源发展股份有限公司发布海油发展-安全环保公司惠州地区新 增制冷站及动力站燃机进气冷却改造常规设备维修服务专有协议中标候选人公示，发布时间为2026年2 月10日。 ...

2月9日消息，天眼查数据显示，中海油能源发展股份有限公司发布海油发展-安全环保节能环保公司 2026-2027年老乳化油处理技术服务采购专有协议中标候选人公示，发布时间为2026年2月9日。 ...

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions have significantly influenced oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases in March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach to supply amid fluctuating geopolitical conditions [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting significant fluctuations due to geopolitical events [1][12] - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and potential military actions against Iran have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [16][20] - The report anticipates that the Brent crude price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [18][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in crude oil demand, with OPEC estimating a rise to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026, up from 105.10 million barrels per day in 2025 [2][17] - The demand growth rate is expected to accelerate in 2027, with projections of 107.86 million barrels per day from OPEC [2][17] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, and Satellite Chemical are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][5][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases into March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach amid seasonal factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16][20] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [1][12] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and tensions with Iran, have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [1][20] - The report anticipates that the average Brent price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [3][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global crude oil demand, with OPEC, IEA, and EIA estimating demand for 2026 at approximately 106.52 million, 104.83 million, and 105.10 million barrels per day, respectively [2][17] - The demand growth for 2027 is expected to be higher, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 126,000 barrels per day [2][17] Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4][5] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4][5]

证券研究报告 原油周报：美国原油产量下降，后续关注美伊谈判进展 大化工首席分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 石化化工分析师：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600525070005 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别67.7/63.5美元/桶，较上周分别-0.9/+0.1美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.2/4.2/0.2亿桶，环比-324/- 346/+21/-74万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1322万桶/天，环比-48万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周412台，环比+1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周148部，环比-3部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油加工量为1603万桶/天，环比-18万桶/天；美国炼厂原油开工率为90.5%，环比-0.4pct。 ◼ 5）原油进出口量：美国原油进口量、出口量、净进口量 ...

2月6日消息，天眼查数据显示，中海油能源发展股份有限公司发布海油发展-工程技术公司智能注水流 量模块等物资采购专有协议中标候选人公示，发布时间为2026年2月6日。 ...

2月2日，海油发展跌7.33%，成交额9.38亿元。两融数据显示，当日海油发展获融资买入额5726.21万 元，融资偿还1.22亿元，融资净买入-6467.55万元。截至2月2日，海油发展融资融券余额合计4.04亿 元。 融资方面，海油发展当日融资买入5726.21万元。当前融资余额4.00亿元，占流通市值的0.94%，融资余 额超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，海油发展2月2日融券偿还12.98万股，融券卖出8.58万股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额 35.78万元；融券余量85.77万股，融券余额357.66万元，超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 资料显示，中海油能源发展股份有限公司位于北京市东城区东直门外小街6号，成立日期2005年2月22 日，上市日期2019年6月26日，公司主营业务涉及提供能源技术服务、FPSO生产技术服务、能源物流服 务、安全环保与节能产品及服务。主营业务收入构成为：能源物流服务51.51%，能源技术服务 35.37%，低碳环保与数字化17.13%。 截至9月30日，海油发展股东户数7.40万，较上期增加10.86%；人均流通股137449股，较上期减少 9.79 ...