Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential dual improvement in performance and valuation [6] - The basic chemical sector has shown revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant profitability in sub-sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.46%, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry index underperformed by 21.06% [14] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of CNY 17,645.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of CNY 1,097.5 billion, up 6.3% [4][35] Basic Chemicals - The basic chemical sector's net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth, with capital expenditures continuing to decline year-on-year [4][36] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,051.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit reached CNY 366.4 billion, up 16.8% [4][35] Sub-sector Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, sub-sectors such as pesticides, adhesives, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers saw significant year-on-year net profit growth [4][37] - The top ten sub-sectors by net profit growth included pesticides (174%) and fluorochemicals, with substantial increases in profitability observed [38]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 67.4 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 23.2 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, showing significant year-on-year growth but a 7% decline from the previous quarter [1] - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to the price drop of key products such as polyester filament and PTA, with average prices for PTA and POY down approximately 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2 - The profitability of PTA improved significantly, with the PTA price spread increasing by 103 yuan/ton year-on-year, while the filament price spread remained stable [1] - The overall profitability of the filament industry is currently not ideal, with weak cost support for PTA and sluggish downstream demand, indicating that the fundamentals have not shown clear signs of recovery [1] - Industry inventory levels are relatively low, and downstream inventory has gradually been digested during the past few years of market downturn, suggesting potential for future recovery in industry conditions [1] Group 3 - The growth rate of filament capacity is slowing, with an expected increase of approximately 2.6 million tons in 2026, representing a growth rate of 6%, while actual production this year may be less than 1.2 million tons, with a growth rate of less than 3% [2] - The PTA industry has been in a prolonged downturn, and a recent meeting was held to prevent excessive competition within the PTA and bottle-grade polyester chip industries, aiming for stable industry operations [2] - The overall capital expenditure in the PTA industry is nearing its end, with limited capacity increases expected in 2026-2027, which may lead to better cost support and a potential recovery in the industry chain [2] Group 4 - The company’s profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 2 billion, 3 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan, respectively, considering the fourth quarter is typically a low season for the filament industry and the current weakening of the PTA price spread [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The demand for polyester filament is weak in Q3, but there is optimism for profit recovery due to the "anti-involution" policy [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [1][2] - The company expects a significant improvement in the supply-demand dynamics for polyester filament and PTA as older production capacities exit the market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 23.239 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.51% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [1][2] - The gross margin for Q3 was 4.01%, a year-on-year increase of 0.69 percentage points, while the net margin was 1.97%, a year-on-year increase of 1.99 percentage points [2] Market Dynamics - The retail sales of clothing and textiles in China increased by 3.1% year-on-year, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 0.33% [2] - The sales volume of polyester filament and PTA for the first three quarters decreased by 3.3% and increased by 22.9% year-on-year, respectively [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 2.09394 billion yuan, 2.98886 billion yuan, and 3.94824 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.87, 1.24, and 1.64 yuan [4] - The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 16.50 for 2025, 11.56 for 2026, and 8.75 for 2027 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has experienced a stock price decline of 2.02% on November 4, with a current price of 14.08 CNY per share and a total market capitalization of 33.859 billion CNY. The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 20.33% but has faced recent declines over various trading periods [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion CNY [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 50,100, a decrease of 28.96% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Tongkun Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 3.203 billion CNY in dividends over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fifth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 35.9221 million shares, an increase of 9.4667 million shares from the previous period. New institutional shareholder, Penghua Zhongzheng Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holds 25.2748 million shares [3].

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.55% on November 3, with 22 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the media and coal industries, which increased by 3.12% and 2.52% respectively [1] - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a rise of 2.28%, with a net inflow of 1.099 billion yuan in main funds, where 41 out of 47 stocks in this sector increased in value, and 2 stocks hit the daily limit [1] - The top three stocks in terms of net fund inflow in the oil and petrochemical sector were China Petroleum, with a net inflow of 295 million yuan, followed by Intercontinental Oil and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with inflows of 255 million yuan and 156 million yuan respectively [1] Industry Summary - The oil and petrochemical sector had a total of 47 stocks, with 41 stocks rising and 5 stocks declining on the day [1] - The stocks with the highest net inflow included: - China Petroleum: +4.48% with a turnover rate of 0.14% and a main fund flow of 294.51 million yuan - Intercontinental Oil: +10.13% with a turnover rate of 12.21% and a main fund flow of 255.11 million yuan - China National Offshore Oil Corporation: +4.83% with a turnover rate of 2.71% and a main fund flow of 156.07 million yuan [1] - The stocks with the highest net outflow included: - Tongkun Co.: -1.05% with a net outflow of 46.51 million yuan - Zhun Oil Co.: +2.09% with a net outflow of 9.81 million yuan - Hengtong Co.: -0.61% with a net outflow of 9.77 million yuan [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Refining Weekly Report: PTA Industry Development Symposium Held, Pay Attention to the Advancement of Anti-Involution in the Chemical Industry [1] - Report Date: November 2, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the big refining industry, including the performance of key refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of related listed companies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread Data**: Domestic key big refining project spread is 2,450 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (down 4%) week-on-week; foreign key big refining project spread is 1,302 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton (up 6%) week-on-week [2] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices are 6,429/6,679/7,779 yuan/ton, up 21/61/46 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry weekly average profits are -17/-116/17 yuan/ton, down 88/62/72 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry inventories are 8.5/18.3/24.5 days, down 3.3/3.6/5.0 days respectively; filament开工率 is 90.9%, down 0.1 pct; downstream loom开工率 is 69.0%, up 2.6 pct; weaving enterprise raw material inventory is 14.0 days, up 2.9 days; weaving enterprise finished product inventory is 23.0 days, down 1.1 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil: gasoline/diesel prices declined this week; US refined oil: US gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: This week's PX average price is 820.7 US dollars/ton, up 26.3 US dollars/ton; the spread to crude oil is 344.9 US dollars/ton, up 8.2 US dollars/ton; PX开工率 is 87.1%, up 0.8 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining & polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xin凤鸣 [2] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - **Market Performance Comparison**: The report presents the price trends and spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects, as well as the market performance of six private big refining companies compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the Brent crude oil price [13][15][17] 2.2 Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices, spreads, and profits of various polyester products, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their relationships with raw material prices and inventories [23][24][35] - **开工率 and Inventory Analysis**: It also examines the开工率 and inventory levels of polyester products and their downstream industries, such as looms, and analyzes the seasonal distribution of polyester filament production and sales rates [30][42][56] 2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [78][80][87] - **US Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [92][94][101] - **European Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [106][108][114] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [118][120][126] 2.4 Chemical Sector - **Price and Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil prices [132][141]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [150] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in demand for polyester filament yarn, leading to a continued reduction in inventory levels [2] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending October 31, 2025, was $65.18 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.96% [2][3] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2337.32 CNY/ton, down 1.97%, and international projects at 1303.72 CNY/ton, up 6.53% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - The market is questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, while OPEC+ is inclined to slightly increase production in December [2] - The EIA inventory data provided positive support, alleviating concerns over trade tensions [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for Brent and WTI crude oil were $65.07 and $60.98 per barrel, respectively [2][14] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices generally declined, with significant narrowing of price differentials [2] - Polyolefins showed stable price movements, while EVA continued to weaken with noticeable price drops [2] - Benzene prices faced downward pressure due to high invisible inventory levels, leading to slight price fluctuations [2] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Demand for polyester filament yarn has rebounded, with inventory levels decreasing significantly [2] - The government has introduced policies to optimize the supply structure, improving medium to long-term supply-demand expectations [2] - The average prices for polyester filament yarn were reported as follows: POY at 6439.29 CNY/ton, FDY at 6675.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7725.00 CNY/ton [2][87] Major Refining Companies Performance - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of October 31, 2025, were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.62%), Hengli Petrochemical (+6.40%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.18%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-4.15%), Tongkun Co. (-0.49%), and Xin Fengming (+1.53%) [2][137]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (桐昆股份) has experienced a decline in stock price and a significant change in shareholder structure, while showing a mixed performance in financial results for the third quarter of 2025 [1][2][3]. Shareholder Changes - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased to 50,100, down by 20,400 or 28.96% from June 30, 2025. The average number of shares held per shareholder increased from 34,100 to 48,000, with an average holding value of 719,800 yuan [2][5]. Financial Performance Highlights - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.303 billion yuan, up 58.07%. In the third quarter alone, revenue was 23.239 billion yuan, down 16.51%, while net profit surged to 452 million yuan, a staggering increase of 872.09% [3][5]. Company Announcements - On October 28, 2025, the company’s supervisory board decided to abolish the supervisory board and transfer its responsibilities to an audit committee under the board of directors, pending shareholder approval. Additionally, the board approved a plan to use up to 1 billion yuan of idle funds for government bond repurchase transactions, aimed at improving capital efficiency and increasing operational income without affecting normal operations [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the positive outlook for the long filament market and the anticipated reversal in PTA profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83% [1] - For Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.452 billion yuan, which includes investment income from joint ventures and associates of 0.325 billion yuan and asset disposal gains of 0.279 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [1] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025, projecting net profits of 2.041 billion yuan (down 5.00%), 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 (down 0.21), 1.52, and 1.78 yuan [1] Group 2: Sales and Pricing - In Q3 2025, the company's polyester filament sales totaled 3.19 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.5% [2] - The sales breakdown for Q3 2025 included POY at 2.36 million tons (73.9%), FDY at 0.53 million tons (16.5%), and DTY at 0.30 million tons (9.5%) [2] - The average price spread for POY in Q3 2025 was 1,171 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to Q2 [2] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The domestic polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity growth, with steady demand leading to an increase in profitability [3] - The PTA industry is anticipated to have limited new capacity in the future, and the high concentration of the industry will provide leading companies with pricing power [3] - As of late October 2025, PTA price spreads have dropped to below 100 yuan, resulting in deep losses across the industry, but production companies are expected to have pricing power [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 performance was impacted by a decline in PTA profitability, but there is optimism for a rebound in PTA prices [4][6] - The company achieved a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.549 billion yuan, an increase of 53.83% [4] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 2.041 billion yuan, 3.648 billion yuan, and 4.274 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.85 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.78 yuan [4][7] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit of 0.452 billion yuan, which includes investment income from joint ventures of 0.325 billion yuan and asset disposal gains of 0.279 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 872.09% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.88% [4][5] - The polyester filament sales volume in Q3 2025 was 3.19 million tons, down 10.9% year-on-year and 7.5% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The average price spread for POY in Q3 2025 was 1,171 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from Q2 [5] Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the domestic polyester filament industry is expected to see a slowdown in new capacity growth, with steady demand leading to an increase in profitability [6] - The PTA industry is anticipated to have limited new capacity in the future, which may enhance pricing power for leading companies [6] - As of late October 2025, PTA price spreads have dropped to around 100 yuan, pushing the industry into deep losses, but there is potential for price increases as production companies seek to recover [6]