Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the polyester sector, suggesting a recovery in profitability as supply and demand improve, and recommends focusing on leading companies in the sector [4][6][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight increase in oil prices in Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 13.4% decrease year-on-year [4][5]. - The performance of key companies in the oil and petrochemical sector is projected to show stability or slight growth, with specific profit forecasts for major players such as China National Petroleum Corporation and CNOOC [4][6][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability in refining companies due to lower operational costs and favorable market conditions, particularly for leading firms like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - Brent crude oil prices showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%, with Q3 2025 prices averaging $68.2 per barrel [4][5]. - Gasoline and diesel prices experienced a net decrease of 75 yuan per ton over the quarter, with adjustments made in July, August, and September [4]. Price Differentials - The report notes that the price differentials for various petrochemical products have shown mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [6][7]. - The ethylene-to-naphtha differential was reported at $238 per ton, reflecting a 7.5% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 23.7% increase year-on-year [6]. Company Performance Forecasts - Key companies are expected to report varying profit results for Q3 2025, with China National Petroleum Corporation projected to achieve a net profit of 38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2% [4][8]. - CNOOC is forecasted to report a net profit of 34 billion yuan, down 8% year-on-year but up 3% quarter-on-quarter [4][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, due to their favorable market positions [4][6][9]. - It also suggests that the oil exploration and production sector remains robust, with continued high capital expenditures expected for offshore oil service companies [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in stock price year-to-date but a decline in recent trading periods [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.097 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.93% [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On October 15, 2023, the stock price of Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by 2.01%, reaching 13.70 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 191 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.59% [1]. - The company has experienced a year-to-date stock price increase of 17.08%, but has seen declines of 8.73% over the last five trading days and 7.49% over the last twenty days [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 70,600, a decrease of 0.22% from the previous period, with an average of 33,944 circulating shares per shareholder, which increased by 0.22% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 26.4554 million shares, a decrease of 7.3797 million shares from the previous period [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the oil and petrochemical industry [3][6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, crude oil prices increased slightly on a quarter-over-quarter basis, while downstream sectors are still awaiting recovery [6]. - The average Brent crude oil price for July, August, and September 2025 was $69.6, $67.3, and $67.6 per barrel, respectively, with a Q3 average of $68.2 per barrel, reflecting a 2.1% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 13.4% decrease year-over-year [6][7]. - The report forecasts performance for key industry companies, indicating stable growth in upstream oil and gas exploration and development, with slight recovery in midstream refining profits [6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Q3 2025 saw a cumulative adjustment of gasoline and diesel prices, with a total decrease of 75 yuan per ton for both [6]. - The price differences for various petrochemical products showed mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [6][8]. Company Performance Forecasts - Key company forecasts for Q3 2025 include: - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC): Expected net profit of 38 billion yuan (YoY -13%, QoQ +2%) [6]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): Expected net profit of 34 billion yuan (YoY -8%, QoQ +3%) [6]. - Sinopec: Expected net profit of 8.5 billion yuan (YoY -1%, QoQ +3%) [6]. - CNOOC Services: Expected net profit of 1.2 billion yuan (YoY +41%, QoQ +11%) [6]. - Offshore Oil Engineering: Expected net profit of 600 million yuan (YoY +9%, QoQ +8%) [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for polyester companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials due to expected recovery in polyester market conditions [6]. - It recommends focusing on quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, given the favorable competitive landscape [6]. - The report also highlights the resilience of upstream exploration and development, recommending offshore service companies like CNOOC Services and Offshore Oil Engineering for potential performance improvement [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.04% in its stock price, reaching 13.37 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 478 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 32.152 billion CNY [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and its main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey fabric [1] - The revenue composition of Tongkun Co., Ltd. includes: 61.10% from polyester pre-oriented yarn, 37.69% from purified terephthalic acid, 15.07% from polyester drawn yarn, 9.46% from polyester textured yarn, 2.90% from other sources, 2.89% from other business income, 0.34% from chips, and 0.27% from composite yarns [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of major fund holdings, only one fund under Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) increased its holdings by 4,000 shares in the second quarter, bringing the total to 90,000 shares, which accounts for 8.73% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Dongcai Industrial Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) was established on December 30, 2022, with a latest scale of 10.2192 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 23.88%, ranking 3974 out of 8162 in its category; the one-year return is 21.86%, ranking 4241 out of 8015; and since inception, the return is 13.85% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has experienced a decline in stock price recently, with a year-to-date increase of 17.85% but a notable drop of 7.88% in the last five trading days and 11.15% over the past 20 days [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of October 14, the stock price of Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 13.79 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 33.162 billion yuan. The trading volume was 153 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.46% [1]. - There was a net outflow of 12.0526 million yuan in principal funds, with significant selling pressure observed [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders was 70,600, a slight decrease of 0.22%. The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 26.4554 million shares, a decrease of 7.3797 million shares, while Southern CSI 500 ETF increased its holdings by 3.4825 million shares to 24.9877 million shares [3].

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.85% on October 13, with Tongkun Co., Ltd. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889.5, down 0.19%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13231.47, down 0.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Runbei Hangke: Closed at 33.30, up 3.10% with a trading volume of 38,500 lots [1] - Baomo Co., Ltd.: Closed at 6.10, up 1.67% with a trading volume of 531,800 lots [1] - Wanbangda: Closed at 6.57, up 1.23% with a trading volume of 345,700 lots [1] - Major decliners included: - Tongkun Co., Ltd.: Closed at 14.08, down 5.82% with a trading volume of 472,700 lots [2] - ST Shenhua: Closed at 3.60, down 5.01% with a trading volume of 3,756 lots [2] - Donghua Energy: Closed at 8.25, down 3.17% with a trading volume of 204,500 lots [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 168 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 66.34 million yuan [2] - However, speculative funds experienced a net outflow of 234 million yuan [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - China Petroleum: Main net inflow of 1.47 billion yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 1.25 billion yuan [3] - China Petrochemical: Main net inflow of 95.17 million yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 68.34 million yuan [3] - Tongkun Co., Ltd.: Main net inflow of 23.57 million yuan, with a net outflow from speculative funds of 21.57 million yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights the decline in international oil prices, vitamin prices, and ethylene prices, suggesting a focus on the third-quarter report trends, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [2][12] - It emphasizes the increasing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies under the current geopolitical context [2] Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 6-12, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 20 saw price increases, 32 experienced declines, and 48 remained stable. Month-over-month, 34% of products increased in average price, while 49% decreased [9][31] - The average price of ethylene decreased to 6,530 CNY/ton, down 3.26% from the previous week and down 16.22% year-to-date [12][33] - The report notes a significant drop in vitamin prices, with vitamin A averaging 59 CNY/kg (down 1.67% week-over-week) and vitamin E at 41.5 CNY/kg (down 5.68% week-over-week) [33] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, and the effects of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries [12] - It recommends a long-term investment strategy centered on the oil price remaining at mid-high levels, the recovery of the oil service industry, and the rapid development of downstream industries, particularly in new materials [12][19] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and several technology firms in the electronic materials sector [12][19]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a significant pullback on October 13, with the chemical ETF (516020) declining by 3.19% [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector, including Tongkun Co., Ltd., fell over 7%, while several others like Xin Fengming and Huafeng Chemical dropped more than 6%, negatively impacting the overall sector performance [1][2] - The chemical ETF has seen a capital inflow of over 80 million yuan in the last three trading days, indicating renewed interest from investors [1][2] Group 2 - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low in terms of profitability and valuation, with a profit margin of 4.14% for the chemical raw materials and products sector as of August 2025 [3] - The price-to-book ratio for the chemical ETF (516020) is at 2.4 times, which is in the 41.57 percentile of the last decade, suggesting a favorable long-term investment opportunity [3] - The construction of new projects in the basic chemical sector has seen a decline for three consecutive quarters, confirming a supply turning point and indicating a potential improvement in the industry landscape [4] Group 3 - Investment strategies suggest focusing on sectors with significant profit elasticity, such as pesticides, organic silicon, and polyester filament, which are expected to benefit from supply-side improvements [4] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI segmented chemical industry index, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap stocks like Wanhua Chemical and Salt Lake Industry [4] - Investors can also consider the chemical ETF linked funds (A class 012537/C class 012538) for exposure to the chemical sector [4]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Tongkun Co., Ltd. experienced a 5.08% drop in stock price, closing at 14.19 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 174 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.50%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 34.124 billion CNY [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and its main business involves the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey cloth [1] - The main revenue composition of Tongkun includes: polyester pre-oriented yarn (61.10%), purified terephthalic acid (37.69%), polyester drawn yarn (15.07%), polyester textured yarn (9.46%), other (2.90%), other business revenue (2.89%), chips (0.34%), and composite yarn (0.27%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Dongcai Fund has a significant position in Tongkun Co., Ltd. The Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) increased its holdings by 4,000 shares in the second quarter, holding a total of 90,000 shares, which accounts for 8.73% of the fund's net value, making it the third-largest holding [2] - The Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund (016487) was established on December 30, 2022, with a latest scale of 10.2192 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 26.35%, ranking 3752 out of 8234 in its category; the one-year return is 19.85%, ranking 4267 out of 8083; and since inception, the return is 16.12% [2] - The fund manager of Dongcai Industry Preferred Mixed Initiation A Fund is Zhu Liang, who has been in the position for 2 years and 289 days, with a total asset scale of 21.2124 million CNY. The best fund return during his tenure is 16.12%, while the worst return is -3.27% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the unprecedented scale of refinery shutdowns in Russia, leading to increased Ural crude oil exports. As of the end of September, 38% of Russia's refining capacity (approximately 338,000 tons per day) was offline, primarily due to drone attacks from Ukraine [3][4][5] - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, while day rates for jack-up rigs are increasing. Brent crude oil futures closed at $62.73 per barrel, down 2.79% from the previous week [3][18] - The refining sector is seeing a drop in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are rising. The Singapore refining margin for major products was $20.06 per barrel, down $1.48 from the previous week [3][54] - The polyester sector shows signs of recovery, with expectations for improved profitability as supply and demand conditions improve [3][13] Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices decreased to $62.73 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 2.79%. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.507 million barrels to 420 million barrels [3][20] - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 2 to 547, with a year-on-year reduction of 39 rigs [3][32] Refining Sector - The report notes a significant drop in Russian refining capacity due to drone attacks, with a 5.08% quarter-on-quarter decline in processing volume in Q3 2025 [3][9] - The report indicates that the domestic refining product spread has improved, but remains at a low level [3][51] Polyester Sector - The report indicates that PTA profitability has declined, while polyester filament profitability has increased. The average price of PTA in East China was 4,528.6 yuan per ton, down 1.69% week-on-week [3][13] - The report expresses optimism for leading polyester companies such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, anticipating a gradual improvement in the industry [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as upstream oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [3][13]