丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨桐昆股份（601233.SH） [Table_Title] Q3 浙石化贡献提升，看好反内卷带动景气修复 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 李禹默 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490525060002 SFC：BUT911 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，Q1-Q3 实现收入 674.0 亿元（同比-11.4%），归属净利润 15.5 亿元 （同比+53.8%），归属扣非净利润 13.0 亿元（同比+58.1%）。其中单三季度实现收入 232.4 亿 元（同比-16.5%，环比-6.1%），实现归属净利润 4.5 亿元（同比扭亏转盈，环比-6.9%），实现 归属扣非净利润 2.5 亿元 （同比扭亏转盈，环比-45.1%）。 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 桐昆股份（601233.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] Q3 浙石化贡献提升 ...

Economic Overview - Jiaxing's GDP for 2024 is projected to be 756.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6%, ranking fifth in Zhejiang province [1] - The GDP for the first three quarters of this year reached 565.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices [1] Private Sector Contributions - The private economy is highlighted as the most significant feature and advantage of Jiaxing's economy, with the "2025 Jiaxing Top 100 Private Enterprises" report indicating that Tongxiang has 20 companies listed, with the top five occupying four positions [3] - Four companies reported revenues exceeding 100 billion yuan, with Huayou Cobalt Group leading at 101.73 billion yuan, marking a growth trajectory from its origins in 1994 [3] Company Highlights - Satellite Group achieved a revenue of 112.87 billion yuan, a significant increase of 31.3%, maintaining its position as the third-largest private enterprise in Jiaxing [5] - New Fengming Group reported a revenue of 131.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.8%, and a chemical fiber production increase of 6.75% to 14.33 million tons [7] - Tongkun Group topped the list with a revenue surpassing 200 billion yuan, growing by 6.28% to 200.17 billion yuan, and is recognized as a leader in polyester filament production [9] Investment and Development - Huayou Cobalt is actively expanding internationally, with projects in Hungary and Zimbabwe, focusing on creating a green manufacturing base for lithium battery materials [3] - Satellite Group is investing 2.38 billion yuan in a new R&D center, aimed at supporting industrial transformation and technological independence [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 28.88% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 2.03% on November 7, 2023, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 53.83% to 1.549 billion yuan [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 3.203 billion yuan, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which increased its holdings by 9.4667 million shares, and a new entrant, Penghua CSI Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 25.2748 million shares [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 7, 2023, Tongkun's stock price reached 15.08 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 260 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.73% [1]. - The stock has experienced a 6.05% increase over the last five trading days and a 23.10% increase over the last 60 days [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in specific companies within the sector [6][33][46]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the oil price has shown a slight increase in Q3 2025, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22][29]. - The upstream oil and gas sector has seen improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector is experiencing pressure from weak terminal demand [33][34]. - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][33][46]. Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and oilfield services sector achieved total revenue of 1,579.75 billion yuan, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21][23]. - The net profit for the sector was 93.05 billion yuan, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23]. Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of 1,670.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [33][34]. - The net profit for this sector was 59.69 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [33][34]. Price Trends and Margins - The report notes that the price spread for major petrochemical products has shown mixed trends, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18][34]. - The average price spread for ethylene-ethylene was $605 per ton, an increase of $38 per ton quarter-on-quarter, while the propylene-acrylic acid spread decreased by 440 yuan per ton [15][18]. Recommendations - The report suggests that the polyester sector is tightening in supply and demand, with expectations for improvement in profitability, particularly for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials [6][33][46]. - It also highlights the potential for large refining companies to benefit from cost improvements and competitive advantages due to domestic policies and overseas refinery contractions [6][33][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry for Q3 2025 [3] Core Insights - Q3 2025 saw a slight recovery in oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $68.2 per barrel, a 2.1% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 19.8% decrease year-on-year [6][22] - The upstream oil and gas sector experienced improved performance due to rising oil prices, while the downstream refining sector faced challenges from weak terminal demand [34][21] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in high-quality companies within the polyester sector and large refining enterprises [6][34] Summary by Sections Upstream Oil and Gas Sector - In Q3 2025, the oil and gas extraction and service industry achieved total revenue of CNY 15,797.5 billion, a 4.0% decrease year-on-year but a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter [21] - The net profit for the sector was CNY 930.5 billion, down 6.1% year-on-year but up 6.2% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 20.9% [21][23] - The report notes that the recovery in oil prices contributed to improved performance in upstream extraction and sales [21] Downstream Refining and Chemical Sector - The refining and chemical industry reported total revenue of CNY 16,702.0 billion in Q3 2025, a 5.3% decrease year-on-year but a 3.8% increase quarter-on-quarter [34] - The net profit for this sector was CNY 596.9 billion, reflecting a 5.4% increase year-on-year and a 14.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 17.8% [34][36] - The report indicates that while oil prices rose, the downstream refining product margins decreased, particularly in the polyester sector due to seasonal demand fluctuations [35][34] Price Trends and Margins - The report details various price trends, including the average price of Brent crude at $68.2 per barrel and the average price differences for key petrochemical products [16][18] - Specific price differences such as the ethylene-ethylene price difference at $605 per ton and the propylene-propane price difference at CNY 1,464 per ton were noted, with some margins expanding while others contracted [15][18] - The report emphasizes the concentration of profits in the polyester industry, with the PTA segment under pressure [15][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [6][34] - It also suggests that the oil price is expected to maintain a mid-to-high level with limited downside potential, recommending companies with high dividend yields like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil [6][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, and Daotong Technology [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in sulfur, sulfuric acid, and lithium battery electrolyte, suggesting a focus on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities [6][19]. - The chemical industry is currently experiencing a weak overall performance, with mixed results across different sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [22]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the glyphosate industry to enter a recovery phase, recommending companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [22]. - The report also notes the impact of international oil price fluctuations on the chemical sector, with a recommendation to pay attention to companies benefiting from lower raw material costs due to declining oil prices [20][22]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring the glyphosate industry for potential recovery, with a focus on companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [8][22]. - It highlights the importance of selecting stocks with good competitive dynamics and profitability, particularly in the lubricant additive and coal-to-olefins sectors [22]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - Significant price increases were noted for sulfur (10.77%), lithium battery electrolyte (10.53%), and sulfuric acid (9.09%) [19]. - Conversely, products like R22 saw a drastic price drop of 60.49%, indicating volatility in the market [19]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the influence of geopolitical events, such as US sanctions on Russia, on international oil prices, which are expected to remain around $65 per barrel [20][24]. - It also mentions the mixed performance of the chemical industry due to varying demand across different sectors, with some areas like lubricants performing better than others [22].

Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.02% on November 6, with Wanbangda leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 8.57, rising by 10.01% with a trading volume of 721,500 shares and a transaction value of 603 million yuan [1] - Unified Shares (600506) also rose by 10.01% to 28.58, with a trading volume of 433,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.164 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Tongkun Co. (601233) up 6.18% to 14.78, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 6.01% to 18.52, and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) up 4.46% to 10.31 [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 337 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 249 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed significant inflows in stocks like Guanghui Energy (600256) and Unified Shares (600506), while retail investors withdrew from several stocks including Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [3]

Group 1 - The chemical fiber sector experienced a rise in the afternoon, with Xin Fengming hitting the daily limit up [1] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by over 6%, indicating strong market performance [1] - Other companies such as Zhongfu Shenying, Nanjing Chemical Fiber, and Huafeng Chemical also saw gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 67.397 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.38% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.549 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 53.83% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - On November 6, 2023, the stock price of Tongkun Co., Ltd. increased by 2.01%, reaching 14.20 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.148 billion yuan [1]. - The stock has experienced a year-to-date increase of 21.36%, but has seen a decline of 1.53% over the last five trading days and 3.14% over the last twenty days [1]. - The company had a net inflow of main funds amounting to 510,300 yuan, with large orders accounting for 11.73% of total purchases [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 28.96% to 50,100, while the average number of tradable shares per shareholder increased by 40.76% to 47,780 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 35.9221 million shares, an increase of 9.4667 million shares from the previous period [3]. - New entrant Penghua CSI Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF holds 25.2748 million shares, while Southern CSI 500 ETF reduced its holdings by 482,300 shares [3].

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector experienced a decline of 0.41% on November 5, with Tongkun Co., Ltd. leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3969.25, up 0.23%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13223.56, up 0.37% [1] Sector Performance - Notable gainers in the refining and trading sector included: - Maoyang Xichang: Closed at 18.60, up 4.09% with a trading volume of 154,400 shares and a turnover of 285 million yuan - Baomo Co., Ltd.: Closed at 6.02, up 3.44% with a trading volume of 262,300 shares and a turnover of 157 million yuan - Heshun Petroleum: Closed at 22.65, up 3.19% with a trading volume of 59,300 shares and a turnover of 134 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - Tongjing Co., Ltd.: Closed at 13.92, down 1.42% with a trading volume of 160,800 shares and a turnover of 226 million yuan - Rongsheng Petrochemical: Closed at 9.87, down 1.40% with a trading volume of 232,900 shares and a turnover of 231 million yuan - Hengyi Petrochemical: Closed at 6.50, down 1.07% with a trading volume of 155,200 shares and a turnover of 101 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net outflow of 234 million yuan from major funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 220 million yuan [2] - Specific stock capital flows indicated: - Maoyang Xichang: Major funds net outflow of 31.4 million yuan, retail net outflow of 17.5 million yuan - Heshun Petroleum: Major funds net inflow of 11.1 million yuan, retail net outflow of 9.1 million yuan [3]