智通财经APP讯，中国外运(00598)发布公告，截至2025年8月31日，公司通过上海证券交易所交易系统 以集中竞价交易方式累计回购公司A股股份8825.45万股，占公司截至2025年8月31日总股本的比例为 1.21%，购买的最高价为5.32元/股、最低价为4.67元/股，已支付的总金额为人民币4.48亿元(不含交易费 用)。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦 不發表任何聲明，且表明不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容所導致或因倚賴該等內容而產生的任何損失承 擔任何責任。 (股份代號: 00598) 海外監管公告 本公告乃根據香港聯合交易所有限公司證券上市規則第13.10B條作出。 茲載列中國外運股份有限公司（『本公司』）於上海證券交易所網站（www.sse.com.cn） 刊登的《中國外運股份有限公司關於以集中競價交易方式回購公司A股股份的進展公告》， 僅供參閱。 承董事會命 中國外運股份有限公司 公司秘書 李世礎 北京，二零二五年九月一日 於本公告日期，本公司董事會成員包括張翼（董事長）、高翔、楊國峰、羅立、余志良、 黃傳京、許克威，以及四位獨立非執行董事王小麗、甯亞平、崔新健及崔凡。 证券代码：601598 证券简称：中国外运 公告编号：临 2025-065 号 中國外運股份有限公司 Sinotrans Limited ( 於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司 ) 中国外运股份有限公司 关于以集中竞价交易方式回购公司 A 股股份的 进展公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is showing strength, particularly in cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, metals, pharmaceuticals, coal, and steel, with the launch of the Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF (159281) on September 2, 2023, which aims to track high dividend-yielding central enterprises [1] Group 1: ETF and Index Details - The Tianhong Central Enterprise Dividend ETF has an annual management fee of 0.5% and a custody fee of 0.1% [1] - The ETF closely tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index (931233), which selects stable dividend-paying companies controlled by central enterprises within the Stock Connect framework [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, the index's sector distribution includes banking, transportation, non-bank financials, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals, with the top ten constituents accounting for 31% of the index [1] Group 2: Performance Metrics - The index has a dividend yield exceeding 7% as of the end of Q2 2025 [3] - Historical performance shows that the index achieved an annualized return of 14.27% over the past five years, with an annualized volatility of 22.02% as of July 9, 2025 [3] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The investment value of Hong Kong central enterprise dividends is expected to continue benefiting from inflows of southbound capital, structural market conditions, and a focus on investor returns through improved dividend policies [4] - The Hong Kong market is anticipated to rise further in the second half of the year, driven by three positive factors, including the AI cycle benefiting technology stocks and the low-interest-rate environment enhancing dividend attractiveness [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In H1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 50.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.95 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.1%. In Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 26.75 billion yuan, down 16.6% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.30 billion yuan, up 14.0% year-on-year. The company faced challenges due to insufficient domestic demand and external shocks, leading to a decrease in contract logistics demand and a reduction in air freight volume. However, the company managed to maintain stable profits through cost control and benefited from the listing of the Zhongyin Zhongwaiyun warehousing logistics REIT, which enhanced Q2 investment income. Looking ahead, the company aims to revitalize its existing assets, focus on its core business, and maintain a stable high dividend policy, offering a relatively attractive dividend yield [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue and net profit figures were 50.52 billion yuan and 1.95 billion yuan, respectively. In Q2 2025, the revenue was 26.75 billion yuan, and the net profit was 1.30 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company reported a year-on-year decrease in revenue for both H1 and Q2, with a decline of 10.4% and 16.6%, respectively. However, the net profit in Q2 showed a positive growth of 14.0% [2][4]. Business Segments - The company's professional logistics and related business revenue decreased by 5.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, while e-commerce business revenue increased by 7.3%. In Q2, the contract logistics and project logistics volumes faced a decline due to insufficient domestic demand [5]. - The company experienced a significant drop in air freight volume and prices due to external shocks, with the SCFI average shipping price down 37.4% year-on-year in Q2 [5]. Investment and Dividends - The company has a high dividend policy, with a total cash dividend and buyback amounting to 1.494 billion yuan in H1 2025, corresponding to a mid-term payout ratio of 76.7% [5]. - The company plans to transfer 25% of its equity in Luokai International, which is expected to contribute an investment income of 1.79 billion yuan in the second half of the year [5].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: GAN_GRU **Model Construction Idea**: The GAN_GRU model combines Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) for processing volume-price time-series features and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) for encoding time-series features to create a stock selection factor[4][13][41] **Model Construction Process**: 1. **GRU Component**: - Input features include 18 volume-price features such as closing price, opening price, turnover, and turnover rate[14][17][19] - Training data consists of the past 400 days of these features, sampled every 5 trading days, forming a 40x18 matrix to predict cumulative returns over the next 20 trading days[18] - Data preprocessing includes outlier removal and normalization at both time-series and cross-sectional levels[18] - Model architecture: Two GRU layers (128, 128) followed by an MLP (256, 64, 64), with the final output being the predicted return (pRet), which serves as the stock selection factor[22] - Training method: Semi-annual rolling training, with training conducted on June 30 and December 31 each year[18] - Optimization: Adam optimizer, learning rate of 1e-4, IC loss function, early stopping after 10 epochs, and a maximum of 50 training epochs[18] 2. **GAN Component**: - GAN consists of a generator (G) and a discriminator (D)[23] - Generator: Uses LSTM to preserve the time-series nature of the input features, transforming random noise into realistic data samples[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{G} = -\mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(D(G(z)))] $$ where \( z \) represents random noise, \( G(z) \) is the generated data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the discriminator's output probability[24][25] - Discriminator: Uses CNN to process the two-dimensional volume-price time-series features, distinguishing between real and generated data[33][37] - Loss function: $$ L_{D} = -\mathbb{E}_{x\sim P_{data}(x)}[\log D(x)] - \mathbb{E}_{z\sim P_{z}(z)}[\log(1-D(G(z)))] $$ where \( x \) is real data, \( D(x) \) is the discriminator's output for real data, and \( D(G(z)) \) is the output for generated data[27][29] - Training: Alternating updates of the generator and discriminator parameters until convergence[30] **Model Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU model effectively captures both time-series and cross-sectional features, leveraging the strengths of GAN and GRU for stock selection[4][13][41] --- Model Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Model**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: GAN_GRU Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from the GAN_GRU model, this factor encodes volume-price time-series features to predict stock returns[4][13][41] **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is generated using the output of the GAN_GRU model, which combines GAN-based feature generation and GRU-based time-series encoding[4][13][41] - The factor undergoes industry and market capitalization neutralization, as well as standardization, before being used for testing[22] **Factor Evaluation**: The GAN_GRU factor demonstrates strong predictive power across various industries, with consistent outperformance in recent years[4][13][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results - **GAN_GRU Factor**: - **IC Mean**: 11.36%[41][42] - **ICIR (Non-Annualized)**: 0.88[42] - **Turnover Rate**: 0.83[42] - **Recent IC**: -2.56%[41][42] - **1-Year IC Mean**: 8.94%[41][42] - **Annualized Return**: 38.09%[42] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.68%[42] - **IR**: 1.61[42] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 27.29%[42] - **Annualized Excess Return**: 23.52%[41][42]

Core Viewpoint - Sinotrans reported a decline in revenue and mixed performance across its business segments, but investment income from REITs significantly boosted net profit in 2Q25, leading to a slight beat of expectations [1][5]. Financial Performance - In 1H25, Sinotrans' revenue decreased by 10.37% YoY to Rmb50.52 billion, while net profit attributable to shareholders was Rmb1.95 billion, resulting in an EPS of Rmb0.27, up 0.10% YoY [1]. - In 2Q25, revenue fell 16.6% YoY but increased 12.5% QoQ to Rmb26.75 billion, with gross profit growing 4.2% YoY and 24.9% QoQ [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2Q25 grew 14.0% YoY and 101.9% QoQ to Rmb1.30 billion, slightly exceeding expectations due to REIT issuance [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Sea freight forwarding experienced solid volume and profit, while integrated logistics services and DHL-Sinotrans faced earnings pressure [2]. - In 1H25, revenue from freight forwarding fell 15.5% YoY to Rmb29.63 billion, with operating profit down 1.2% YoY to Rmb1.22 billion [3]. - Business volumes for sea freight, air freight, and railway freight forwarding changed by +6%, -14%, and -25% YoY, respectively [3]. - DHL-Sinotrans' revenue in 1H25 fell 12% YoY to Rmb8.76 billion, with net profit down 39% YoY to Rmb912 million due to tariff policies and rising costs [4]. - Integrated logistics services saw revenue decline by 5.9% YoY to Rmb14.32 billion, with operating profit down 22.4% YoY to Rmb318 million [4]. Investment Income and Cash Flow - Investment income surged 182.5% YoY to Rmb863 million in 2Q25, primarily due to the issuance of REITs, which raised Rmb1.31 billion [5]. - Net operating cash inflow reached Rmb168 million in 1H25, a significant improvement from an outflow of Rmb1.65 billion in 1H24 [5]. - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 31% YoY to Rmb11.7 billion, attributed to better receivables management and optimized debt structure [5]. Dividend and Valuation - The firm declared an interim dividend of Rmb0.145 per share, maintaining a stable DPS since 1H23, with a payout ratio of 76.7% in 1H25 [6]. - The disposal of Loscam International could enhance net profit by Rmb1.35 billion and generate Rmb4.44 billion in cash, potentially increasing full-year dividends by 17% YoY [7]. - Sinotrans' A-shares are currently trading at 11.5x 2025e and 11.1x 2026e P/E, while H-shares are at 8.7x 2025e and 8.2x 2026e P/E [7].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement details a change in shareholding by a major shareholder, China Ocean Shipping Company, which has increased its stake in Antong Holdings to 17.00% from 16.93% through the purchase of 3,200,000 shares on August 28, 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - China Ocean Shipping Company and its concerted actions have increased their total shareholding in Antong Holdings from 16.93% to 17.00% [1][3]. - The increase in shareholding represents approximately 0.08% of the total share capital of Antong Holdings [3][5]. - The change in shareholding does not trigger any mandatory tender offer obligations [1][3]. Group 2: Shareholder Information - As of the announcement date, China Ocean Shipping Company and its concerted actions hold a total of 17.00% of the shares, making them the largest shareholder of Antong Holdings [1][3]. - The current controlling shareholder remains Fujian Zhaohang Logistics Management Partnership (Limited Partnership), and the company does not have an actual controller [1][3]. Group 3: Compliance and Future Plans - The shareholding change is consistent with previously disclosed plans and commitments by the information disclosure obligor [5]. - As of the announcement date, the shareholding increase plan has not been fully executed [5].

Core Viewpoint - The 19th China (Shenzhen) International Logistics and Supply Chain Expo will be held from September 24 to 26, showcasing over 2,200 exhibitors from more than 60 countries and regions, with a focus on new trends and technologies in the logistics and supply chain industry [1][4]. Group 1: Event Overview - The expo will cover an area of over 130,000 square meters and is expected to attract over 300,000 professional visitors [1]. - This year marks the 20th anniversary of the expo, which has been recognized as the "Olympics of the global logistics and supply chain sector" [4]. - The event aims to promote international collaboration and the transformation towards smarter, greener, and more digital logistics [4]. Group 2: International Participation - Over 20% of the exhibitors will be international, with notable participation from countries such as the USA, Canada, Mexico, and several European nations [5]. - First-time exhibitors from countries like Uzbekistan, Georgia, and Romania will also be present, alongside various postal services from multiple nations [5]. Group 3: Domestic Exhibitors - Domestic exhibitors will represent 26 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, with significant participation from Shanghai, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu [7]. - The number of exhibitors from Qingdao has increased by 70% compared to 2024, indicating a growing interest in the expo [7]. Group 4: Special Features - The expo will feature the inaugural Road-Rail Intermodal Transport Pavilion, highlighting the achievements of the land Silk Road in infrastructure connectivity [8]. - A dedicated "Smart Logistics and Digital Technology" section will showcase innovations in AI scheduling, autonomous driving, and new energy logistics equipment [9]. Group 5: Concurrent Thematic Exhibitions - The expo will host the 2025 World Unmanned Vehicle Economy Expo, focusing on the unmanned vehicle industry and its integration with smart technology [10]. - Another thematic exhibition, the 2025 Enterprise Going Abroad Expo, will concentrate on cross-border e-commerce and international supply chains, providing a platform for high-quality outbound business opportunities [11].

Core Viewpoint - China National Freight Forwarding (中国外运) reported a decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, while net profit showed a slight increase, indicating mixed financial performance amidst challenging market conditions [1]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was 50.523 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.42% compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.947 billion yuan, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.08% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 26.751 billion yuan, down 16.66% year-on-year, while net profit for the same quarter was 1.302 billion yuan, up 14.05% [1]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 6.14%, an increase of 19.13% year-on-year, while net margin rose to 4.21%, up 13.80% [1]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 2.06 billion yuan, accounting for 4.08% of revenue, which is an increase of 8.65% year-on-year [1]. Cash Flow and Assets - Cash flow per share was 0.02 yuan, a significant increase of 110.17% year-on-year [1]. - The company reported a total of 11.78 billion yuan in cash and cash equivalents, a rise of 31.68% compared to the previous year [1]. - Accounts receivable decreased to 15.53 billion yuan, down 9.83% year-on-year [1]. Investment Returns - The company's return on invested capital (ROIC) was 8.34%, indicating average capital returns historically [5]. - The estimated dividend yield is 4.59%, suggesting potential returns for investors [5]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding China National Freight Forwarding is E Fund Stable Income Bond A, with a holding of 28.6866 million shares, which has seen a reduction in its position [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 50.52 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4% (adjusted), while the net profit attributable to shareholders remained flat at 1.95 billion yuan [1][6] - The REITs project has significantly enhanced profits, contributing approximately 4.4 billion yuan to pre-tax profits, effectively offsetting declines in other income sources [6][7] - The company has a stable dividend policy, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.145 yuan per share, representing 53.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 26.75 billion yuan, down 16.7% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 14% to 1.3 billion yuan [1][6] - The overall business volume declined, with air freight volume down 9.5% and rail freight down 26.6%, while sea freight volume increased by 4.1% [6] - The company's operating costs decreased by 11.3% to 47.42 billion yuan, leading to a gross margin increase of 1 percentage point to 6.1% [6][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a net profit of 4.96 billion yuan in 2025, with a PE ratio of 8.3x, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [7][8] - The report anticipates that the company's overseas business will continue to expand, increasing its revenue contribution in the future [7]