投资建议：我们看好公司主业稳健性及股息价值，长期看好公司积极拥抱AI及教培等新业务，有望打 开收入与估值天花板。考虑到上半年业绩完成情况，我们小幅下调此前业绩预期，预计公司2025/26/27 年归母净利润分别为10.99/11.65/12.5 亿元（此前预期分别为12.18/13.33/14.42 亿元），当前股价对应 11/11/10 倍 PE，参考可比公司估值（凤凰传媒、中南传媒、山东出版、新华文轩），由于公司主业稳 健+新业务布局积极，给予公司25 年15xPE，目标市值165 亿元，对应目标价18.4 元，维持"强推"评 级。 风险提示：纸张成本上涨，教育政策变化，在校学生数变化，并购进展不及预期，新业务进展不及预期 受季度确认节奏影响利润有波动，但H1 纬度看仍稳健度较高。教育出版公司一般上半年确收春季学 期，下半年确收秋季学期，偶有季度间波动或属于正常确收节奏问题，建议【以半年纬度】观测业绩稳 健性。回归南方业绩，25h1 剔除税收影响后扣非净利口径增速～3%，仍保持较为稳健增长。 重申此前观点，公司质地较优+新业务兑现能力强。1）公司地处广东有人口优势+出版中为数不多仍有 外延并购逻辑的标的， ...

稳定分红+回购注销，积极回馈投资者。截至2025H1 末，公司账面现金约27.3 亿元。公司自上市以来 实施积极的分红政策，近三年累计现金分红金额达到13.84 亿元。2024 年公司分红金额（含税）为4.93 亿元，占公司归母净利润的比例为60.85%。为提升股东价值，公司将2022 年度回购的1390.6472 万股股 份用于注销减资，提升股东价值。未来，公司将紧扣高质量发展目标，持续优化分红政策，推动公司价 值与股东利益最大化。 维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。我们认为南方传媒出版发行主业经营稳定，数智发展和对外传播能力持续提 升，同时2025 年国有出版企业税收优惠政策延期，公司所得税费用影响消除，我们预估公司2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为11.80/12.84/13.26 亿元，对应10.7/9.9/9.6 倍PE，维持"强烈推荐"投资评级。 风险提示：新业务拓展不达预期的风险、税收优惠政策的风险、转型升级的风险、成本风险等。 南方传媒发布2025 年半年度报告。公司2025 年H1 实现营业收入39.72 亿元，同比-1.30%；实现归母净 利润4.51 亿元，同比+50.74%；实现扣非归母净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The publishing industry is experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating a shift in operational dynamics and reliance on specific segments like educational materials [1][9]. Revenue Summary - Total revenue for publishing companies in the first half of 2025 was 65.192 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9% year-on-year [1]. - Five companies exceeded 5 billion yuan in revenue, with Phoenix Media leading at 7.113 billion yuan, followed by Central South Media at 6.335 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with revenue between 1 billion and 5 billion yuan, only three reported year-on-year growth, indicating a broader decline in revenue across the sector [2]. Profit Summary - Net profit for the publishing sector reached 8.224 billion yuan, an increase of 9.29% year-on-year, with 10 companies reporting net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan [1][3]. - Central South Media entered the "10 billion club" with a net profit of 1.017 billion yuan, while Phoenix Media maintained its lead with 1.586 billion yuan [2][3]. - The number of companies with net profit growth has increased, with notable growth rates such as Central South Media's 50.39% increase [2][3]. Non-Operating Profit Summary - Excluding non-recurring items, Phoenix Media led with a non-operating profit of 1.514 billion yuan, followed by Central South Media at 0.995 billion yuan [3][4]. - Among the 13 companies reporting non-operating profits, only three experienced a decline, while the rest saw growth of over 10% [3][4]. Company Type Analysis - Comprehensive publishing companies, which include publishing and distribution, showed a revenue decline with only one company reporting growth, while 10 maintained profit growth [5]. - Pure publishing companies, such as Times Publishing and China Publishing, reported revenue and profit growth, particularly benefiting from educational materials [6]. - The digital publishing sector, represented by companies like iReader Technology and Chinese Online, faced challenges with significant profit declines despite revenue growth [10]. Tax Policy Impact - The continuation of tax exemption policies for certain publishing companies has significantly contributed to profit growth, with companies like Central South Media and Zhejiang Publishing reporting substantial increases in net profit due to these policies [7][8]. Market Trends and Challenges - The publishing industry is facing challenges from changing consumer demands, particularly in the educational materials sector, which has been a traditional revenue driver [12][14]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on digital transformation and innovative business models to adapt to market changes, with many investing in new content and technology [15][18]. Financial Management - Many publishing companies are utilizing idle funds for financial management, indicating a cautious approach to capital allocation amid operational challenges [17][18]. - The total cash and cash equivalents held by the 28 publishing companies reached 58.1 billion yuan, highlighting the need for effective capital utilization to drive innovation [18].

Group 1 - On August 28, Southern Media executed a block trade of 1.2627 million shares, with a transaction value of 18.1447 million yuan, accounting for 9.66% of the total trading volume for the day [1] - The transaction price was 14.37 yuan, which remained stable compared to the market closing price of 14.37 yuan [1] - The buying brokerage was Guotai Junan Securities Co., Ltd., while the selling brokerage was China International Capital Corporation [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.41 [7][5]. Core Views - The company achieved total operating revenue of RMB 3.972 billion in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 50.74% to RMB 451 million, aligning with the performance forecast [1]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the demographic advantages in Guangdong, leading to sustained performance improvements [1]. - The report highlights the company's effective cost control measures, particularly in paper costs, which contributed to a slight increase in gross margin to 35.01% [2]. - The publishing reform initiatives have shown significant results, with notable sales figures for new publications and a strong position in educational publishing [3]. - The company is advancing its "Digital and Intelligent South Transmission" strategy, enhancing its digital education platforms and AI applications, which are expected to drive future growth [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported total operating revenue of RMB 3.972 billion, with a net profit of RMB 451 million, reflecting a 50.74% increase year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 35.01%, up by 0.79 percentage points, primarily due to effective paper cost management [2]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted to RMB 11.19 billion, RMB 12.64 billion, and RMB 14.15 billion respectively [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company has accelerated its publishing reform, achieving significant sales milestones with new titles and expanding its educational publishing footprint [3]. - The "Digital and Intelligent South Transmission" strategy has led to the deployment of digital educational resources across 19,151 schools in Guangdong, with over 15.89 million active users [4]. Valuation - The report assigns a PE ratio of 14.5X for 2025, based on the company's strong market position and growth potential, leading to a target price of RMB 18.41 [5].

Summary of Southern Media Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Southern Media - **Industry**: Education Publishing and AI Education Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Southern Media has completed the fall textbook and supplementary materials subscription, ensuring "books before class" by early September [2][4] - The pass rate for junior high school first-class supplementary materials reached 90%, with the "Southern New Classroom" being the only all-subject, all-version approved material in the province [2][4] - The education publishing market in Guangdong is stable, with a steady demand for high school and college entrance exams, indicating continued growth for the company's market-oriented supplementary materials business over the next two to three years [2][6][7] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Southern Media's total profit reached 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, outperforming expectations in the publishing industry [3][4] AI Education Initiatives - Southern Media has developed an AI education matrix, with its core product "Yuejiao Xiangyun" having nearly 16 million users across 19,151 schools [2][8] - The AI assistant application has completed public testing and is set for provincial rollout in early September [2][9] - The company has sold 3,000 units of the AI mouse, generating approximately 600,000 yuan in sales, with a target of 30,000 units for the year [2][9][11] Product Development and Sales - The "Southern Easy Classroom" mini-program, in collaboration with Tencent, has reached 398,000 users, while the smart homework platform with iFLYTEK has been launched [2][10] - Sales of "Yue High School" and "Language Fun Learning" cards reached 4.68 million units, generating over 20 million yuan in revenue in the first half of the year [2][11] Challenges and Strategic Responses - General book revenue declined due to a nationwide drop in sales and a lack of blockbuster titles compared to the previous year [2][14] - Southern Media is actively transforming through digital initiatives like micro-short dramas and has established an 80 million yuan publishing fund to attract quality authors [2][14][16] Future Plans and Market Expansion - The company plans to continue promoting head products and increase the sales of general books despite market pressures [2][15] - Southern Media aims to expand its AI education offerings and has plans for new product launches, including AI teaching aids and digital education platforms [2][10][18] Dividend and Investment Strategy - Southern Media will steadily increase its total dividend to enhance investor satisfaction [2][22] - The company has reduced its holdings in Longban Media and is exploring new investment opportunities in consumer, trendy toys, and animation sectors [2][23] Cash Flow and Financial Management - The decrease in net cash flow was primarily due to prepayments for textbooks, which are expected to be recovered later [2][24] - In a low-interest environment, the company is converting some cash into trading financial assets for better returns [2][25] Educational Policy Impact - The population advantage in Guangdong provides a favorable environment for the textbook and supplementary materials market, with expectations for stable growth despite regulatory challenges [2][12] New Business Opportunities - The inclusion of preschool education in the free education phase presents new opportunities, with Southern Media developing various preschool reading materials and digital platforms [2][29] Overall Outlook - Southern Media is well-positioned in the education publishing sector, benefiting from demographic trends and increasing educational demands, with a strong focus on AI education and digital transformation [2][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate (Maintain)" [5] Core Views - The company is steadily improving its main business and has achieved significant results in digital transformation [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality development by deepening the reform of its publishing business and increasing R&D investment to enhance competitiveness [7] - The company has a strong resource endowment and scale advantages, which support its balanced development across various business segments [7] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 9,365 million, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. It is expected to decline to 9,172 million in 2024, then recover to 9,669 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,284 million in 2023, with a significant increase of 36.1%, followed by a decline to 810 million in 2024, and a recovery to 1,118 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of 38.1% [4] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 31.8% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2025 [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.46 in 2023, declining to 0.92 in 2024, and then recovering to 1.27 in 2025 [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 10.2 in 2023 to 9.3 in 2027, indicating potential undervaluation [4] Stock Performance - The company's stock price as of August 26, 2025, is 14.80, with a total market capitalization of 13,053.16 million [5] - The stock has shown a 36.08% absolute return over the past 12 months, despite a relative decline of 23.13% over the last three months [6]

风险提示：原材料成本上升，新业务拓展不及预期、教材教辅 政策变化等。 2025 年 08 月 27 日 南方传媒(601900.SH) 经营持续稳健，受免税政策影响利润端 高增 事件： 公司发布 2025 年中报，2025 年上半年实现收入 39.72 亿（yoy- 1.3%），归母净利润为 4.51 亿(yoy+50.74%)。 收入端小幅下滑，利润端高增。2025Q1 收入端小幅下滑，主要 受到教辅、报媒收入增长和教材、一般图书、课后服务业务下降 的综合影响。2025H1 综合毛利率为 35.01%，较 2024 年提升 1.47pct；销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率分别为 9.36%、 10.83%、0.50%，具有较强的控费能力。受免税政策影响，所得税 费用同比大幅减少，拉动利润端实现高增，2025H1 实现归母净利 润为 4.51 亿，同增 50.74%。 教材教辅基本盘稳固，持续夯实出版壁垒。公司背靠广东人口 大省，2025 年春发行中小学教材约 1.72 亿册。同时不断夯实教 材教辅出版壁垒，目前共有 23 个学科国标教材通过教育部审定， 科目数量仅次于人教社，同时共有 6 套地方综合课程通 ...

截至发稿，南方传媒市值为131亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——能给主人"打电话"的宠物智能手机也来了！宠物产业3000亿元市场大爆 发，行业上市公司"涨"声一片 （记者 胡玲） 每经AI快讯，南方传媒（SH 601900，收盘价：14.8元）8月26日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第十二次 董事会会议于2025年8月25日在公司二楼203会议室以现场结合通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于公司 2025年半年度报告及其摘要的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，南方传媒的营业收入构成为：发行占比82.16%，出版占比43.36%，物资占比 11.23%，印刷业务占比6.75%，其他业务占比2.16%。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——能给主人"打电话"的宠物智能手机也来了！宠物产业3000亿元市场大爆 发，行业上市公司"涨"声一片 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，南方传媒（SH 601900，收盘价：14.8元）8月26日晚间发布半年度业绩报告称，2025年上 半年营业收入约39.72亿元，同比减少1.3%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润约4.51亿元，同比增加 50.74%；基本每股收益0.51元，同比增加50%。 截至发稿，南方传媒市值为131亿元。 ...