| 国泰海通证券 | | --- | | GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES | 目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2025-10-09 09:00——2025-10-10 15:00） | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 策略观察：《成交活跃度升高，万得全 A 估值领涨》2025-10-09 | 2 | |  | 行业专题研究：传播文化业《中国规模最大、增速最快的潮玩集合品牌，产品与渠道双轮驱动》2025-10-102 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：机器人《Figure 03 展示家庭应用场景，为规模化生产做准备》2025-10-10 | 3 | |  | 行业深度研究：医药《小核酸，大时代，靶向治疗新纪元》2025-10-10 | 4 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：建筑工程业《建筑铜金等矿产价值重估，降息预期催化资源品涨价》2025-10-10 | 5 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：投资银行业与经纪业《25H1 小结：高增之下，酝酿变化》2025-10-10 | 6 | |  | 行业跟踪报告：半导体设备《自强，先进制程设备的突破是核心》2025-10-0 ...

"一综多星"，声鸣远扬 芒果超媒(300413) 芒果超媒跟踪报告 风险提示：广告招商不及预期，会员增长不及预期等。 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.09.12 传播文化业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | | [Table_Target] 目标价格(元): | 41.04 | [当前价格 Table_CurPrice] (元)： 30.08 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 陈筱(分析师) | 021-38675863 | chenxiao@gtht.com | S0880515040003 | | 陈俊希(分析师) | 021-38032025 | chenjunxi@gtht.com | S0880520120009 | | 李芓漪(分析师) | 021-38038428 | liziyi@gtht.com | S0880523080004 | 本报告导读： 公司官宣新综艺《声鸣远扬 2025》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the IP licensing and commercialization platform in China, with a strong presence in the concert ticketing service sector, continuously expanding the "Damai" brand influence [2][9]. - The IP derivative business is expected to be the primary growth driver, with significant revenue growth projected in the coming years [9]. - The company aims to accelerate its global strategic layout while leveraging its diverse IP matrix across various genres [9]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 50.4 billion RMB in 2024 to 109.84 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 19.2% [3][12]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 285 million RMB in 2024 to 1.59 billion RMB in 2028, reflecting a substantial growth trajectory [3][12]. - The company anticipates an EPS of 0.03, 0.04, and 0.05 RMB for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][12]. Revenue Breakdown - The IP derivative business is projected to generate 14.33 billion RMB in revenue for the fiscal year 2025, marking a 73% year-on-year increase [9][12]. - The concert ticketing segment, after the full acquisition of Damai, is expected to achieve revenues of 20.57 billion RMB in 2025, a 236% increase [9][12]. - The film segment is projected to see a decline in revenue, with a forecast of 2.71 billion RMB in 2025, down 9.6% year-on-year [12]. Valuation and Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 1.94 HKD based on an average of PE and PS valuation methods for the fiscal year 2026 [9][13]. - The report references comparable companies with an average PE of 50 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation outlook for the company [13][14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 18.79 CNY, while the current price is 15.79 CNY [2][11]. Core Views - The company's textbook and educational materials business is stable, and digital textbooks and application services are expected to become a second growth curve, indicating a positive outlook on the company's digital transformation performance [3][11]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.50 CNY per 10 shares, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.4% based on the closing price on June 3 [11]. - The company achieved a significant profit increase in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.113 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 1.21%, and a net profit of 320 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 110.25% [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 9,365 million CNY in 2023, 9,172 million CNY in 2024 (a decrease of 2.1%), and expected growth to 10,543 million CNY by 2027 [5][12]. - Net profit (attributable to the parent company) is projected to be 1,284 million CNY in 2023, dropping to 810 million CNY in 2024 (a decrease of 36.9%), and then recovering to 1,256 million CNY by 2027 [5][12]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.43 CNY in 2023, decreasing to 0.90 CNY in 2024, and then gradually increasing to 1.40 CNY by 2027 [5][12]. Business Performance - The company's textbook and educational materials publishing achieved sales of 5.36 billion CNY in 2024, a growth of 4.65%, with significant new adoptions in various regions [11]. - The general book publishing segment saw a remarkable sales increase of 51.61%, with popular titles contributing to strong performance [11]. - The company is advancing its digital transformation by integrating digital textbooks into free teaching materials and achieving significant growth in digital media initiatives [11].