汽车｜ 汽车零部件 轮胎销量持续增长，全球布局再下一城 | 预测指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主营收入(亿元) | 201.65 | 220.57 | 240.20 | 256.85 | 282.28 | | 净利润(亿元) | 13.90 | 17.52 | 20.21 | 22.86 | 25.23 | | 每股收益（元） | 0.95 | 1.20 | 1.38 | 1.56 | 1.72 | | 每股净资产（元） | 14.28 | 14.81 | 15.78 | 16.88 | 18.08 | | P/E | 14.99 | 11.89 | 10.31 | 9.11 | 8.26 | | P/B | 1.00 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 资料来源： iFinD ，财信证券 投资要点： 证券研究报告 公司点评 玲珑轮胎(601966.SH) 涨跌幅比较 % 1M 3M 12M 玲珑轮胎 -20.00 -21.33 -34.50 汽车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][5][12] Core Views - The company achieved record production and sales in Q4 2024, but performance was significantly impacted by raw material costs and expense provisions [1][5] - The establishment of a third overseas base in Brazil is a strategic move to enhance production capacity and market reach [5][6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 22,058 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.4% [2][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1,752 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26% [2][6] - Earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 1.20 yuan, with a gross margin of 22.1% [2][6] - The company anticipates net profits of approximately 1,579 million yuan, 2,104 million yuan, and 2,448 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [2][5] Production and Sales Performance - The company’s tire production and sales reached approximately 8,912 million units in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.65% [5][6] - In Q4 2024, tire production and sales hit record highs, with production of about 2,340 million units and sales of 2,411 million units [5][6] Cost and Margin Analysis - The average procurement prices for key raw materials such as natural rubber and synthetic rubber increased by 28% and 13.5% respectively in 2024 [5][6] - Despite rising costs, the company benefited from a reduction in anti-dumping duties on semi-steel tires, leading to a gross margin increase of 1.05 percentage points to 22.06% [5][6] Strategic Developments - The new facility in Brazil is expected to produce 12 million semi-steel tires and generate sales revenue of 77.6 billion yuan upon reaching full capacity [5][6] - The company is also planning an H-share issuance to support its expansion efforts [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Linglong Tire (601966.SH) is "Buy" with the rating maintained [1][6]. Core Views - Linglong Tire continues to experience strong growth in tire sales, with a global expansion strategy that includes establishing a new production base in Brazil [5][6]. - The company reported a revenue of 220.58 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit of 17.52 billion yuan, up 26.01% year-on-year [5][6]. - The tire market in China is thriving, with production exceeding 1.18 billion units in 2024, a 9.2% increase from 2023, and exports growing by 10.5% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Linglong Tire achieved a revenue of 220.58 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.52 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 22.06%, an increase of 1.78 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - The company expects revenues of 240.20 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits projected at 20.21 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.38 yuan [5][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Linglong Tire's sales volume reached 85.45 million units in 2024, a growth of 9.57% year-on-year, and continued to grow in the first quarter of 2025 [5][6]. - The company is implementing a "7+5" strategy, focusing on seven domestic bases and five overseas bases, with plans for a new facility in Brazil [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a P/E ratio of 10.31 in 2025, with a target stock price range of 16.56 to 20.70 yuan based on a 12-15 times P/E valuation [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the chemical industry, highlighting the recovery at the bottom of the cycle and the focus on undervalued high-growth stocks [1]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic assessment of the chemical industry indicates a stabilization in oil prices due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases, while coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term. Natural gas prices are fluctuating at the bottom [3][4]. - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in profitability for the chemical sector in Q1 2025, driven by terminal inventory replenishment and improved demand, despite ongoing construction projects peaking and declining [3]. - The overall revenue for the chemical sector in 2024 is projected to reach 2.0601 trillion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, while net profit is expected to decline by 3% to 109.8 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current oil prices are influenced by the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S. tariff policies, with Brent crude averaging $80.93 per barrel in 2024, down 2% year-on-year. NYMEX natural gas futures are expected to average $2.41 per million British thermal units, down 10% year-on-year [3][4]. - The chemical industry is experiencing a "V"-shaped recovery in market conditions, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 496.9 billion yuan, a 6% increase year-on-year, and net profit rising by 9% year-on-year to 32.8 billion yuan [3]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests focusing on traditional cyclical stocks with strong fundamentals, such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Chemical, as well as growth stocks in semiconductor materials and OLED technologies [3]. - The tire industry is expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery and cost reductions, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire highlighted for potential investment [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential in the chemical sector, particularly in segments like agricultural chemicals and specialty chemicals [3]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in price differentials, with PPI data showing a slow recovery from negative values towards zero [3][4]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring inventory levels and price movements in key chemical products, as these factors will influence future profitability and investment opportunities [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown resilience and improvement in performance for 2024, driven by a series of growth policies and the impact of AI on technological innovation, with over half of listed companies achieving revenue growth and a significant number of new listings reporting both revenue and net profit increases [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In 2024, among 5,403 listed companies, 3,035 achieved positive revenue growth, accounting for 56.17% [5] - Over half of the 100 newly listed companies in 2024 reported both revenue and net profit growth, with notable performances from companies like Kema Technology and Pioneer Precision [6][7] - The financial sector has accelerated recovery, with consumer spending and logistics showing significant improvement, contributing to the overall resilience of listed companies [2][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The introduction of new regulations, including the "National Nine Articles," has led to a significant reduction in the number of terminated IPO reviews, with only 2 terminations in April 2024 compared to 31 in the same month of the previous year [3][8] - The strict IPO review process has resulted in a tripling of terminated projects in 2024, indicating a focus on improving the quality of listed companies [7][8]. - The implementation of the "strictest delisting rules" has led to 22 companies being delisted in 2024, with a focus on financial and trading indicators [9][10]. Group 3: Corporate Quality Improvement - The combination of delisting and rescue measures has led to an overall improvement in the quality of listed companies, with 32 companies expected to withdraw delisting risk warnings by the end of May 2024 [11][12] - Companies like *ST Hengyu have successfully removed delisting risk warnings by improving their financial performance, demonstrating the effectiveness of regulatory measures [12][13]. Group 4: Investor Returns - In 2024, nearly 70% of listed companies announced cash dividend plans, totaling 1.66 trillion yuan, with the overall dividend amount reaching 2.39 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [15][16] - The number of companies announcing mid-term dividends has significantly increased, with 985 companies declaring plans, marking a 4.3-fold increase in both number and amount compared to 2023 [15][16]. - State-owned enterprises continue to be the main contributors to dividends, with nearly 1,000 state-owned companies distributing a total of 1.5 trillion yuan in dividends in 2024 [16].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of major Chinese tire companies, including Sailun, Linglong, and Triangle, shows significant divergence in 2024, with Sailun and Linglong experiencing substantial growth in revenue and net profit, while Triangle faced declines in both revenue and profit [2][4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Sailun Tire**: - Revenue reached 31.802 billion yuan, up 22.4% year-on-year - Net profit was 4.063 billion yuan, a 31.4% increase - R&D expenses amounted to 1.013 billion yuan, a 20.8% increase [3][4][6][8] - **Linglong Tire**: - Revenue was 22.058 billion yuan, growing by 9.4% - Net profit reached 1.752 billion yuan, up 26% - R&D expenses totaled 920 million yuan, a 12.97% increase [3][4][7][8] - **Triangle Tire**: - Revenue fell to 10.156 billion yuan, down 2.55% - Net profit decreased to 1.103 billion yuan, a decline of 21.03% - R&D expenses were 150 million yuan, a 6% increase [3][4][8] Market Trends and Challenges - The global tire market is expanding, driven by the recovery of the automotive industry, with a total global tire sales volume of 1.856 billion units in 2024, a 1.86% increase year-on-year [4][12] - The domestic tire market saw a total production of 847 million units, up 7.8% year-on-year [4] - The industry is facing challenges from rising raw material prices, particularly natural rubber and synthetic rubber, which increased by 30% and 19% respectively [7][11] Q1 2025 Performance - **Sailun**: - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 8.411 billion yuan, a 15.28% increase year-on-year - Net profit was 1.039 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.47% [9][10] - **Linglong**: - Q1 revenue reached 5.697 billion yuan, up 12.92% - Net profit fell to 341 million yuan, down 22.78% [9][10] - **Triangle**: - Q1 revenue was 2.244 billion yuan, down 5.92% - Net profit decreased significantly to 166 million yuan, a decline of 43.54% [9][11] Strategic Developments - Sailun is enhancing its digital and intelligent manufacturing capabilities, establishing a comprehensive digital ecosystem to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [6][8] - Linglong is expanding its global footprint with new factories in Brazil and Serbia, aiming to strengthen its international competitiveness [14] - Triangle is also investing in digital transformation to improve operational efficiency despite facing significant challenges [7][11]

Group 1 - Linglong Tire (601966.SH) reported its Q1 2025 results, with 58 institutional investors holding a total of 917 million shares, representing 62.63% of the total share capital [1] - The top ten institutional investors collectively hold 60.27% of the shares, with a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [1] Group 2 - In the public fund sector, 11 funds increased their holdings, while 13 funds decreased their holdings, both with a change of 0.11% [2] - Seven new public funds disclosed their holdings in Linglong Tire, while 350 funds did not disclose their holdings in the current period [2] Group 3 - One pension fund decreased its holdings, while one insurance fund increased its holdings, indicating a slight change in the pension and insurance sectors [3] - One foreign fund reduced its holdings by 0.20% compared to the previous quarter [3]

近年来，玲珑轮胎积极响应国家《乡村振兴促进法》，凝聚各方力量共同打造天然橡胶产业的绿色未 来。接下来，玲珑轮胎将与GPSNR及本地合作伙伴密切协作，持续跟进项目进展、总结经验，探索更 多可复制、可推广的路径，让绿色成果惠及更多地区。 在该项目中，玲珑轮胎携手Preferred by Nature，协助西双版纳当地小农群体推进FSC认证，帮助他们打 通进入高端市场的绿色通道。这不仅提升了橡胶种植的可持续性，更为小农户在责任化、可追溯供应链 中实现稳定且长期的发展奠定了基础。 在西双版纳热带植物研究院和亚太森林恢复与可持续管理网络(APFNet)等本地伙伴的支持下，玲珑轮胎 通过开展生态意识宣传与社区主导的培训活动，推广农林复合经营与土地修复实践，让退化的生态系统 重获新生，保护这片拥有亚洲象、热带森林及逾5000种植物的珍贵生物多样性地区。 据悉，近年来，随着橡胶种植的快速扩张，西双版纳生态系统承受了不小压力：森林面积减少、生物多 样性锐减，生态失衡问题逐渐凸显。同时，当地农村社区也面临严峻挑战，对单一作物高度依赖、人口 外流严重、基础设施不足，以及经济结构单一等。为此，玲珑轮胎项目着眼于长期可持续的改变与社会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 22.06 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26.01% year-on-year [1] - The tire sales volume for 2024 reached 85.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, primarily driven by the growth in semi-steel tires [2] - The company plans to invest 8.7 billion yuan in Brazil to build a project with an annual production capacity of 14.7 million high-performance tires, further deepening its global presence [4] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 22.06%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 7.94%, up 1.04 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is adjusted to 1.97 billion yuan for 2025 and 2.27 billion yuan for 2026, with an expected PE ratio of 10.6 for 2025 [5][7] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.39% from 2024 to 2027 [7]

Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 22.06 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.75 billion yuan, up 26.0% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 13% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7%, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, down 23% year-on-year but up 740% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The company’s tire production reached 89.12 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.65%, while sales were 85.45 million units, up 9.57% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for 2024 was 22.06%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 14.92%, down 8.51 percentage points year-on-year and 1.16 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 5.98%, down 2.76 percentage points year-on-year but up 5.32 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Expansion and Investment - The Serbia base commenced production in September 2024, marking the first factory built by a Chinese tire company in Europe, with a capacity of 3 million passenger and light truck tires [2] - The company is collaborating with SUNSET S.A. in Brazil to invest 1.19 billion USD (approximately 8.71 billion yuan) in a project to produce various types of tires, expected to generate annual revenue of 1.063 billion USD and net profit of 166 million USD once operational [2] - The board has approved plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to expand financing channels [2] Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.989 billion yuan, 2.375 billion yuan, and 2.852 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 10.9, 9.1, and 7.6 times respectively [3]