投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2025-11-25 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 综合 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 49.80 | 50.10 | | 20251031 | 2025/10 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.10 | 50.00 | 50.20 | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 11.50 ...

李慕春表示，作为我国首家以服务绿色发展为特色定位的期货交易所，广期所近年来围绕新能源产业链加速布局，已构 建起涵盖工业硅、碳酸锂、多晶硅等多个关键品种的期货体系，市场功能显著提升，价格影响力持续增强。 近日，在第二十届中国经济论坛平行论坛——2025大湾区科技与金融创新发展大会上，广州期货交易所党委委员、副总 经理李慕春发表主题演讲，详细介绍了广期所的成立背景、产品体系建设以及服务绿色低碳发展的最新进展。 对于"十五五"时期和未来绿色转型需求，李慕春表示，广期所规划了三大重点方向：一是丰富完善品种体系。推进氢氧 化锂期货及期权研发上市，深入布局光伏、风电、储能等新能源产业链及战略性矿产资源，推动碳排放权期货等战略品 种研发。二是持续强化市场服务和培训。深化"助绿向新"计划，持续优化工业硅、碳酸锂、多晶硅等已上市品种的合约 规则，提高与产业的匹配度。三是推进高水平对外开放。扩大境外投资者参与度，探索结算价授权制度，增强期货价格 在境外贸易和金融场景中的使用。 李慕春表示，广期所将继续紧紧围绕服务绿色发展、服务粤港澳大湾区建设、服务"一带一路"倡议的特色定位，积极发 挥期货市场在价格发现、风险管理、资源配置方面的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has appointed Zhu Lihong as the new Party Secretary of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, while Xiong Jun has been relieved of his duties as Party Secretary and Chairman [1] Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhu Lihong has been appointed as the Party Secretary and is nominated as the Chairman of the Board of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [1] - Xiong Jun will no longer serve as Party Secretary, Chairman, and non-member director of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [1] Group 2: Zhu Lihong's Background - Zhu Lihong previously held the position of Deputy Secretary, Vice Chairman, and General Manager at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [1] - Under her leadership, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange launched futures products such as industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon since its establishment in 2021 [1] - Zhu has emphasized the importance of carbon emission rights futures and advocated for the synergy between spot and futures markets to promote carbon reduction [1] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange, under Zhu's leadership, has focused on serving green development and the real economy, contributing to the achievement of the "dual carbon" goals [1]

Group 1: Green Trade Policy - The Ministry of Commerce has issued the first special policy document on green trade, titled "Implementation Opinions on Expanding Green Trade," aimed at promoting trade optimization and achieving carbon neutrality goals [1] - The document emphasizes the importance of establishing a robust support system for green trade, including enhancing financial policy support and encouraging financial institutions to develop products based on carbon footprint accounting and certification [1] Group 2: Carbon Emission Trading Mechanism - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a core policy tool for achieving China's dual carbon goals, with the national carbon market expanding from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons in emission coverage, and the number of regulated enterprises increasing from over 2,200 to 3,700, representing a 60% overall market expansion [2] - The introduction of carbon emission futures is seen as a significant direction for enriching carbon financial products, addressing the growing need for managing price volatility risks as more industries are included in the carbon market [2][3] Group 3: Futures Market and Risk Management - The launch of carbon-related futures and options products is expected to enhance risk management and liquidity in the carbon market, making carbon trading more efficient [3] - The futures market plays a crucial role in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, which can significantly benefit the carbon market [3] Group 4: Futures Industry Contribution - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to support the construction of the carbon emission rights market, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange prioritizing carbon emission rights as a strategic product [4] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has completed the design of the carbon emission rights futures contract system and is set to advance the listing of these futures while refining market research and contract design [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's green trade policy is being formalized through the issuance of the "Implementation Opinions" by the Ministry of Commerce, aiming to promote trade optimization and support the country's dual carbon goals [1] - The green trade support system will be enhanced through financial policy support, encouraging financial institutions to develop products based on carbon footprint accounting and certification [1] - The carbon trading mechanism is identified as a key policy tool for achieving China's dual carbon goals, with the national carbon market expanding its coverage from 5 billion tons to 8 billion tons, increasing the number of regulated enterprises from over 2,200 to 3,700, resulting in a 60% overall market expansion [2] Group 2 - The introduction of carbon emission rights futures is seen as a significant direction for developing carbon financial products, which can help manage price volatility risks for enterprises as new industries are gradually included in the carbon market [2] - Experts believe that launching carbon emission rights futures and options can enhance market liquidity and efficiency, thereby strengthening China's position in the international carbon market [3] - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to support the construction of carbon emission rights, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange planning to launch carbon emission rights futures [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the achievements and future directions of China's futures market as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and alignment with national strategies [1][10]. Regulatory Framework - The regulatory framework of China's futures market has been significantly enhanced during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of a comprehensive legal system that defines the market's role in serving the real economy [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued guidelines to strengthen regulation and prevent risks, ensuring a balance between innovation and systemic risk prevention [2]. Product Innovation - A total of 61 new futures and options products were launched during the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, chemicals, and metals, thereby enhancing the market's ability to serve the real economy [2]. - The innovation in product offerings has transformed futures tools from optional to essential for enterprises, providing diverse hedging options to meet various industry needs [2]. Shortcomings and Upgrading Directions - The futures market still faces challenges, including gaps in product structure, particularly in strategic areas like green electricity and carbon trading, which have yet to be fully developed [3]. - Regulatory collaboration is hindered by inefficiencies in data sharing and risk identification, which need to be improved to meet the requirements of comprehensive development and safety [3]. - The level of internationalization remains at a basic stage, with low participation from foreign investors despite the growth in the number of internationalized products [3]. Strategic Upgrades - The focus should shift from merely providing tools to empowering strategic initiatives, aligning product innovation with national priorities [4]. - A proactive risk management approach is necessary, moving from compliance-based regulation to risk prediction and early intervention [4]. - The market should transition from product openness to institutional openness, optimizing mechanisms for cross-border transactions and investor management [4]. Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize product innovation in strategic areas, particularly in supporting green and low-carbon transitions, such as the introduction of carbon trading futures [5]. - Enhancements in the financial derivatives system will include the development of foreign exchange futures and the expansion of stock index futures and options [5]. - The futures market should also focus on developing region-specific agricultural products and commodity index derivatives to meet diverse investor needs [6]. Risk Management - A modern risk management system is essential, integrating technology to enhance monitoring and response capabilities [7]. - The use of big data and AI in regulatory practices will improve the precision and efficiency of risk management [7]. - Establishing a regulatory sandbox for innovative financial products can balance innovation incentives with risk control [7]. High-Level Openness - The futures market should evolve from a one-way opening to a dual-direction integration, enhancing both inbound and outbound investment opportunities [8]. - Optimizing participation mechanisms for foreign investors and establishing cross-border clearing systems will facilitate greater international engagement [8]. - A comprehensive monitoring system for cross-border funds is necessary to ensure a balanced approach to openness and risk management [8]. Ecosystem Development - The development of the futures market should move from isolated growth to collaborative ecosystems, emphasizing technology integration and talent development [9]. - Building a digital delivery platform and enhancing transparency in transactions will strengthen market trust [9]. - There is a need for cultivating versatile talent capable of navigating the complexities of an open and innovative market environment [9].

Core Viewpoint - Fuzhou Futures aims to support the real economy and promote green development through its services and products, focusing on high-end materials and energy sectors [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Development - Fuzhou Futures is the only futures company under the Fujian provincial state-owned asset system, fully owned by Fujian Energy and Petrochemical Group, emphasizing its commitment to serving the real economy [1]. - The company is actively enhancing its collaboration with the group’s new energy enterprises, aligning with the national strategy and group planning to promote green transformation [2][3]. - Fuzhou Futures has established branches in regions like Guangdong and Sichuan to support the development of new energy futures products and has conducted extensive industry research [2]. Group 2: Product and Service Offerings - The company provides diversified products and services to help enterprises participate in the futures market, focusing on price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation [1][2]. - Fuzhou Futures has successfully launched futures products such as industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, and polysilicon, which are crucial for the green low-carbon transition [2][3]. - The company has developed customized financial derivative training for local enterprises, enhancing their ability to manage risks through hedging tools [2]. Group 3: Market Development and Collaboration - Fuzhou Futures is collaborating with exchanges to promote the listing of new energy products, including hydrogen and electricity futures, and has conducted preliminary research on carbon emission rights [3]. - The company has organized multiple training sessions to improve the understanding and participation of new energy enterprises in futures tools [3]. - Fuzhou Futures has facilitated the establishment of polypropylene delivery warehouses in Fujian, enabling local enterprises to engage more conveniently in futures delivery [4]. Group 4: Risk Management and Support for Enterprises - The company offers comprehensive services for enterprises, including system construction, personnel training, risk control drills, and market analysis to support their futures hedging activities [5]. - Fuzhou Futures has seen an increase in the adoption of basis trading and rights-inclusive trading in the construction and textile industries, providing solutions to mitigate price volatility risks [6]. - The company aims to enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises facing challenges in utilizing futures tools, advocating for continued and expanded support measures from exchanges [6].

Core Viewpoint - Funi Futures, as the only futures company under the Fujian state-owned asset system, focuses on serving the real economy and promoting green development and high-end materials, aligning with national strategies and group planning [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Development - Funi Futures aims to enhance the capabilities of new energy enterprises in utilizing financial derivatives, providing customized training and support for risk management [2]. - The company is actively collaborating with its parent group to strengthen its presence in the green finance sector, facilitating the green transition of enterprises [2][3]. - Funi Futures has successfully established a delivery warehouse for polypropylene in Fujian, enabling local enterprises to participate more conveniently in futures trading [3][4]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Product Offering - The company is preparing for the launch of new energy futures products, such as electricity futures and carbon emission rights, to expand its service boundaries in the new energy sector [3]. - Funi Futures has approved a total of 21 delivery warehouses and brands across various industries, enhancing the trading infrastructure for local enterprises [4]. - The company provides comprehensive services for enterprises, including risk management training, market analysis, and solutions for warehouse receipt transfers and delivery [4]. Group 3: Support for SMEs - Funi Futures recognizes the challenges faced by small and medium-sized enterprises in accessing futures tools and advocates for continued support measures from exchanges to enhance their participation in the futures market [5]. - The company plans to strengthen collaboration with banks and securities firms to offer additional value-added services to enterprises [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has released an opinion on advancing green low-carbon transformation and strengthening the national carbon market, emphasizing the importance of carbon markets as a policy tool for addressing climate change and promoting economic development [1] Group 1: Carbon Market Development - China has established a national carbon emissions trading market for key emission units and a voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market to encourage self-reduction [1] - The current carbon market is limited to spot trading, primarily involving power companies, indicating a relatively closed market [1] - The introduction of carbon emission rights futures is seen as a significant direction for enriching carbon financial products and addressing shortcomings in the carbon market system [1] Group 2: Futures Market Potential - Since the introduction of the "dual carbon" goals in 2020, carbon emissions trading has become a hot topic at the annual National People's Congress, with increasing calls for the listing of carbon emission rights futures [2] - The futures market can enhance price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, making carbon trading more efficient and liquid [2] - Launching carbon emission rights futures will strengthen China's voice and competitiveness in the international carbon market, supporting international climate negotiations [2] Group 3: Financial Derivatives and Market Impact - Financial derivatives are expected to act as amplifiers in the market, supporting effective price formation in the carbon market, similar to the EU carbon market where most trading comes from derivatives [3] - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to contribute to carbon emission rights construction [3] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has developed a design plan for carbon emission rights futures contracts and is set to advance the listing of these futures while refining market research [3]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Municipal Government has issued the "Action Plan for Comprehensive Deepening Reform of the Shanghai Carbon Market (2026-2030)", aiming to enrich the carbon financial products and services system [1] - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a core policy tool for achieving China's "dual carbon" goals, guiding enterprises to control emissions through carbon price signals [1][2] - The current national carbon market is limited to spot market trading, primarily involving power companies, indicating a relatively closed market [1][2] Group 2 - There is a growing demand for expanding carbon trading product varieties, with suggestions to introduce carbon futures and forwards to optimize quota allocation and compliance mechanisms [2] - The futures market is seen as a means to discover prices, manage risks, and allocate resources, which can enhance market liquidity and efficiency in carbon trading [2][3] - The introduction of carbon futures is expected to strengthen China's voice and competitiveness in the international carbon market [2] Group 3 - Financial derivatives are viewed as amplifiers for market effectiveness, with significant potential for the development of carbon financial products in China [3] - The futures industry is actively focusing on industry needs and innovating services to contribute to the construction of carbon emission rights [3][4] Group 4 - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has been developing strategic products related to carbon emission rights since its establishment, collaborating with various research institutions to enhance contract design [4] - The exchange has completed the design scheme for carbon emission rights futures contracts and is preparing for their listing [4] Group 5 - Futures companies are preparing for the green development trend, actively participating in the research and design of green low-carbon futures and options [5] - Training and promotional activities are being conducted to enhance enterprises' understanding of green low-carbon financial tools and improve risk management awareness [5]